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216 pages, Paperback
First published January 1, 2017
Technology is taking over everything: every part of our lives, every part of society, every waking moment of the day […] Naturally we’re uneasy; we should be. The majority of us, and our environment, may receive only the backlash of technologies chiefly designed to benefit a few. We need to feel a sense of control over our own lives; and that necessitates actually having some.For example, the authors acknowledge that though it is possible that driverless, autonomous vehicles are not far off, their widespread use would lead to massive unemployment -to place this problem just in the US context, over three million US citizens make their living by driving cars, trucks, buses or other vehicles. There are also other ethical problems involved:
What are we yielding to technology? How can we decide whether technological innovation that alters our lives is worth the sacrifice?
...how will we program the machines to make the right decisions when faced with impossible choices -such as whether an autonomous car should drive off a cliff to spare a busload of children at the cost of killing the car’s human passenger?What if the car is full of passengers and two of them are pregnant or children? What if the bus is full of senior citizens being driving back to an assisted home facility? What if the car’s passenger includes the President or a billionaire or a key social leader or a well-known celebrity? What if the car’s sole passenger is a young only child being taken back from sports or therapy? What if the vehicle has the choice between injuring a bystander and demolishing an empty but expensive store? Should such programming decisions be left to the AI learning algorithm, its "programmers", their company, an insurance company or should there be legal guidelines and oversight? In this book, the authors do not analyze such questions, but by omitting such analysis, how can they claim the technology has the potential to benefit all equally, or that the “rewards” outweight the risks? What happens to all the unemployed trucksters and bus drivers?
This is the challenge we have ahead: to involve the public in making informed choices so that we can create the best possible future...but there is a sting in the final assumption
... and to find ways to handle the social upheaval and disruption that inevitably will follow.Chapter 2 asks
So what makes conditions ripe for a leap into the future in any specific economic segment or type of service?But for the authors “leaps into the future” mean widespread introduction of radical and disruptive new technologies and when they claim that widespread dissatisfaction with taxi drivers, city driving experiences, the education system, health care systems, utility service providers, government do the solutions have to boil down to disruptive technologies? And are those changes necessarily for the good? Wadhwa blinds us with the excitement of Moore’s laws, and at the end, in passing asks a key question that remains unanswered in the rest of the book:
...how can we better shape and control the forces of that [coming] world in ways that give us more agency and choice?And is worth pointing out that more agency and choice should refer to meaningful and deep issues about our lives, not about having a zillion more ketchup flavors and brands to choose from.
In fact, the more people who use the software, the more revenue it produces for the developers, so they are motivated to share it broadly. This is how Facebook has become one of the most valuable companies in the world: by offering its products for free-and reaching billions.which grossly misrepresents Facebook’s business model, as anyone paying attention to, say, the Cambridge Analytica scandals is well aware of. And then, if A.I. will take over so many jobs involving intelligence and creativity, what will be left for us humans to do? The authors blithely assert
We can build a society with new values, perhaps one in which social gratification comes from teaching and from accomplishments in fields such as music and the arts. [p.39].Ah, but education is one of the sectors we are dissatified with and there is a whole chapter devoted to “Remaking education with avatars and A.I.” (chapter 6) where, in the best case scenario, human teachers take a very dim back seat. And the chapter ends by hammering in the last nail in the coffin:
[I]t is becoming clearer that teaching, like many white-collar jobs that have resisted robots, is something robots can do -possibly, in structured curricula, better than humans can.Well then, perhaps not teaching (and certainly not everyone can be a good teacher), but the creative arts? The authors fudge this issue, first they claim this will free us up to do more creative things but then:
[AI applications]...will create music, poetry and art. In fact, they are already learning how to do so […] In September 2011, in Malaga, Spain, a computer named Iamus [...] composed a trio for clarinet, violin and piano, titled Hello, World […] Ultimately, powerful computational systems […] will reason creatively to solve problems in mathematics and physics that have bedeviled humans. [p. 42-43]And even granting that there will remain jobs for the top-notch lawyers, judges, doctors, artists and other professionals, how do they get there if all the jobs they require to learn their game is occupied by A.I.? They conclude on this note:
Technology will surely create upheaval and destroy industries and jobs. It will change our lives for better and for worse simultaneously. But we can reach [a better “Star Trek” world] if we can share the prosperity we are creating and soften its negative impacts, ensure that the benefits outweigh the risks, and gain greater autonomy rather than becoming dependent on technology.With law, medicine and the arts, among others in the hands of the machines, what degree of autonomy from technology will we have accomplished? What sort of jobs will we be able to aspire to during the disruption: piece-meal jobs in the gig economy to train machines?