I’ve been reading a lot about the future of work at the moment for a project at work – I can’t say it has made me feel all that great, to be honest. In fact, I can only hope the people making the predictions I’ve been reading are so far wrong as to make themselves look like fools in a decade or so when we can all have a bit of a laugh at their expense. There are also lots of people saying that there will be lots of new jobs created – perhaps even more than those that are about to be wiped out in the avalanche about to hit – but none of them make it all that clear just where these new jobs are likely to come from, nor what skills you might need to get them.
This book covers a lot of the ground other books I’ve been reading also covers– but this really is the book to read. Not least because it explains things that most other texts take for granted. The best example here is the two chapters on cryptocurrencies and blockchain. Not only does he explain these so that a guy in his mid-50s can understand them (who has next to no interest in money or accounting) but it goes on to explain why blockchain is much more interesting (and terrifying) than just some clever way to buy illicit drugs or sex.
A lot of what I’ve been reading is written by the kind of people that Neil Postman used to talk about in his books on technology – the endlessly positive rose-coloured-glasses brigade. The only thing is that these people make me feel even more afraid of the future than the ones who ‘tell it like it is’. It is clear there is a lot of ‘disruption’ about to happen (disruption is the new term to sum up our new existence, it seems), it isn’t at all clear what is going to happen to ease that disruption. It is like the Trotskyists have taken over Capitalism and we are going to live in their perpetual revolution after all.
It looks like the jobs that are most likely to go are going to be those from the middle of the economy (think paralegals, bookkeepers, service industry employees), which will mean those currently employed in the middle will be forced down – pushing those on the bottom right out of the economy. And given those on the bottom are the least able to adjust to this shock (they weren’t working on the bottom for the lifestyle options it provides) – and since they have the least education, the least resources, the least social and cultural capital to attempt to re-train and life-long-learn, the most likely outcome would seem to be that these people are about to become the left behind and the left out, or, what has fast become my favourite term from this book, the unneccessariat.
The promise is often that the jobs that are about to disappear are the 4 Ds – dirty, dull, dangerous and demeaning. But as the author makes clear, these are precisely the jobs that people making their way up off the bottom have traditionally used as their first stepping stones. If these jobs no longer exist, and McDonalds is even in the process of getting rid of hamburger flippers and supermarkets are getting rid of check-out chicks, just what is it that people are going to do? As he says, “it seems safe to conclude that between algorithmic management and regulation, and the more than usually exploitative relations that we can see resulting from it, hard times are coming for those who have nothing to offer the economy but their muscle, their heart or their sex.”
What I really liked about this book was that he started each chapter in more or less the way the rose-coloured glasses types might – giving the received view of how the world is going to improve with the promise of this next latest-and-greatest thing. But then he goes through some of the problems with the technology – and that is often enough to turn your hair to grey, or as Wodehouse would say, turn the food in your mouth to ashes.
I’ve told this bit of the book to a few people already. In the olden days – oh, 10 years ago, maybe – companies that were likely to go onto the internet would have an IT department. That department would know how to do IT-like stuff, such as keep software and firmware up to date. It would know how to secure a network. It would know that buying stuff just because it is cheap isn’t always the best policy. Then suddenly, everyone was on the internet – and just as suddenly again, it wasn’t just people on the internet, but fridges and watches too. The Internet of Things became a ‘thing’ too , so much so that it even got its own three letter abbreviation – IoT – with a cute little O in the middle for the of. The only problem is that since people no longer have IT departments (that was so 90s…) when they attach their IoTs to the internet they might just keep the factory set password, or not bother with a password at all. And so, to celebrate, there is a Russian website that can give you the IP address of thousands of unsecured digital cameras that their owners probably think are just fine. As the author says, “they open onto scenes you’d imagine people would treat with far greater discretion: illegal marijuana grow ops, secure areas of bank branches, military base housing, and column after column of babies lying in their cribs, asleep or otherwise”.
The Russians get a couple of goes in this book, and neither time leaves you with a warm and cosy feeling of eating borsch. The other is when he is discussing how technologies can be used for purposes that might not have been front of mind for their creators. He talks about an application called FindFace – that you can use to match someone you meet or just someone’s face you see in a crowd to those “shared to the Russian-language social network Vkontakte by its roughly 200 million users”. You know, you’re sitting on the bus and the girl in front of you is a bit cute, so you FindFace her and find out she is from Minsk and has a cat called Inga, and that she’s called Sasha, but likes to be known as Catherine… Great, aye? Except, as much fun as it is to do this, it is also a bit creepy, you know, even when used properly – but it is made 1000 times more creepy by the kinds of professional creeps who repurposed the application so they could then out sex workers. The world really is full of arseholes and nearly all of them think of themselves as morally superior, how is that?
The parts of this on creditworthiness and the complications associated with this were also particularly interesting, because there was a time when we could regulate banks and other lenders to ensure that they didn’t discriminate against various groups unfairly – oh, you know, taking a completely fictional example off the top of my head, say on the basis of their skin colour. Now, people do not need to make such decisions at all – they can be left to the totally objective and ‘colour-blind’ algorithm that can then assess your creditworthiness and decide if you will get a loan or not and if so, at what rate, given your risk profile. So much more objective and fair. The only problem is that someone has to come up with the algorithm and some people, for the sake of argument and brevity, let’s call them white people, often have the most bizarre and presumably subconscious forms of racism that might just happen to get coded into the algorithm from the very start. And the problem is that it might literally be impossible to find out how or why certain groups of people – oh, let’s call them black people this time to keep it fair and give them their turn – are suffering under what sets itself out to be a completely objective means of gauging a person’s worth as a human being in our society.
And speaking of which, he discusses China’s new social-credit scheme – where you get added points for being a good and moral person – you know, if you help a little old lady across the street and get captured on CCTV doing so, that’ll be ten points, or you are found to have praised Mao, 20 points, although if you post something against the party line while on-line – oh dear…
This book ends with a kind of cui bono argument around the tetrapods that Japan placed around its coastline so as to stop sand erosion as a kind of metaphor. The problem was that they didn’t actually work – but Japan kept installing them anyway. The argument that is used here is that you should check who benefits from something, no matter what its original stated purpose might have been, and then you will know what its real purpose was and probably always had been. The problem with this is that it isn’t always literally true – as the FindFace example above makes clear, the programmers of that application probably had no intention of it being used to out sex workers. All the same, the ‘follow the cash’ game often proves a reasonable rule of thumb.
The author provides a series of scenarios at the end of this about what might be about to happen and how we might be respond – I can’t say I finished this book with a spring in my step and a whistle on my lips. But this is an important read and I haven’t covered anything like half of what it covers.
I’ll end on an amusing quote: “This (is) more or less a form of manifest Fully Automated Luxury Communism, a world of cornucopian excess for all. If this becomes possible anywhere, it will be hard to see how it can be prevented from happening everywhere. But while this scenario may stand in rebuke to the common complaint that it is easier to imagine the end of the world than the end of capitalism, it is troublingly founded on an ex machina retuning of human nature.” The meliorists will get you in the end.