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The Retreat of Western Liberalism
From Financial Times chief US columnist and commentator Edward Luce, The Retreat of Western Liberalism offers a sharp and insightful look at why the values the West has long championed are now in danger, with a new afterword for the paperback. Luce argues that today's the erosion of middle-class incomes has eaten away at liberal democratic consensus, resulting in today's crisis. We are continuing on a menacing trajectory brought about by ignorance of what it took to build the West, arrogance towards society's economic losers, and complacency about our system's durability--attitudes that have been emerging since the fall of the Berlin Wall. Unless the West can rekindle an economy that produces gains for the majority of its people, its political liberties may be doomed. The West's quasi-religious faith in the linear progression of history teaches us to take democracy for granted. Reality tells us something troublingly different. The most mortal threat to the Western idea of progress comes from within.
Combining on-the-ground reporting with intelligent synthesis of the literature and economic analysis, Luce makes a powerful statement about the weakening of Western hegemony and gives a forward-thinking analysis of what those who believe in enlightenment values must do to defend them from the multiple onslaughts they face in the coming years.
Combining on-the-ground reporting with intelligent synthesis of the literature and economic analysis, Luce makes a powerful statement about the weakening of Western hegemony and gives a forward-thinking analysis of what those who believe in enlightenment values must do to defend them from the multiple onslaughts they face in the coming years.
256 pages, Paperback
First published June 6, 2017
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February 2, 2025
Edward Luce’s THE RETREAT OF WESTERN LIBERALISM was written in the aftermath of Hillary Clinton’s surprising loss in November 2016. But the preface to this fascinating little book begins with the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989. That was a heady time. Many believed that western-style commercial democracy had prevailed and our future as a species ever after would be enlightened and democratic. Francis Fukuyama was predicting the end of history. The supremacy of Western thought was a given and now the rift in the West had been healed.
Of course, history had other ideas. Here we are nearly 30 years later and Moscow is hosting conferences on the “polycentric world order,” a Russian euphemism for “post-American world.” That leaves some of us (principled conservatives, classical liberals and centrists) wondering if the American experiment has run its course. Luce’s response to that question is . . . maybe; if we don’t take serious corrective action.
Luce is an English journalist. He was Washington DC bureau chief for the conservative English newspaper, Financial Times. Now he writes a column for that publication. During the Clinton administration, he was a speechwriter for Larry Summers. His political credentials seem solidly liberal, but he has an affinity too for thinkers in the tradition of the 20th century political philosopher, Leo Strauss, who was a reluctant liberal democrat. That makes Luce an interesting and balanced reporter on current events.
Luce’s talent as a speechwriter is very much in evidence in THE RETREAT. The book is organized into four chapters. Each alone reads much like a speech. Luce’s prose is snappy, fact-filled and pleasant to the ear. But as we expect with oral advocacy, it is less rigorous than written exposition. Still, this is a worthwhile book, and I enjoyed learning from it.
The first chapter is Fusion. This chapter discusses the integration of the global economy. The picture Luce paints for the great American middle class is gloomy. He predicts that the pressure on the West’s middle classes will continue to be relentless. He supports this prediction with many statistics. For example, since joining the WTO in the 90’s, China’s trade surplus with the US has jumped five-fold. By 2050, China’s economy will be twice the size of the US economy. India and the US economies will be virtually the same size.
The Rosetta Stone for Luce is the now ubiquitous elephant chart. It illustrates that over the last three decades western middle class incomes grew by 1%, while China’s doubled and Vietnam, India and other Asian middle class incomes grew by 80%. The so-called Bush expansion is the first on record where middle class incomes were lower at the end than at the start. The digital age has not increased productivity as was expected. Unemployment in the US is bang on the same as in Europe. The opioid epidemic is symptomatic of a middle class that has lost faith.
Luce is convinced that Trump’s election crystallizes the West’s failure to come to terms with economic reality. Trump has proposed no solution for the hereditary meritocracy that Americans believe has ossified its once mobile society. Nor does he seem to recognize the implications of job elimination and worker obsolescence. Trump’s simplistic nationalism seems naïve in the face of a powerful privileged class of stateless elites whose allegiance is to global success and personal prosperity rather than to the state of their citizenship. Luce allows that economies can benefit from protectionism. Alexander Hamilton’s protection of fledgling industries served the US well in the 19th century. But does the US truly have the self-discipline to abandon the deep globalization that its influential privileged favor and that has been national policy for decades? Luce implies that he believes the US must re-calibrate and pursue something he calls “thin globalization”. This concept is not elaborated upon sufficiently for me to be confident that I understand the details though I read with close attention.
Chapter 2, Reaction. In this chapter, Luce expounds on the degeneration of Western politics. In 1972, out of 200 countries, there were 13 democracies in the world. By 2000, there were over 100 democracies. However, since 2000, we have lost 25 democracies (as counted by Freedom House).
The glue of commercial democracy is economic growth. But Luce makes clear that he believes some of the world’s gravitation to authoritarianism and away from democracy is explained by politics, not economics. He faults the Patriot Act and the Faustian bargain that the US made with autocrats around the world after 9/11. He believes that, in the process, the US legitimized autocratic regimes. The dubious US experience in Iraq also undermined its credibility at home with rural whites and millennials, who are not committed to democracy unlike the generations of Americans who preceded them.
The erosion of American credibility has affected China and Russia’s aspirations too. They are no longer evangelistic. They no longer strive to export their style of government to the third world. They simply want to rupture the West’s claim to universalism. Luce believes that with Iraq and Trump, the US has made that an easier sell. .
Luce worries that Trump’s victory rekindled demophobia, the ancient Greek fear of “the mob.” How should we respond to this fear, he asks? Is Jefferson’s idea of a “natural aristocracy of the talents” discredited, he wonders? This leads him into a brief and unenlightening discussion of the democratic folk theory vs. the complex liberal idea. Luce reminds us that this debate is ancient. Plato thought the mob could not distinguish between knowledge and opinion. Aristotle tried to address this by combining the rule of the knowledgeable with the consent of the many.
Without resolving this ancient debate, Luce closes this chapter with the conclusion that the West has forfeited its prestige and the world’s center of gravity is shifting east.
Chapter 3, Fall Out. This chapter explores the end of western military hegemony. Luce concludes that chaos is more likely to displace America as the undisputed military power in the world than is China.
Candidly, this is the least interesting of Luce’s chapters. It mostly features Luce’s speculation about how military supremacy will evolve as the economic balance tips eastward. This discussion exposes that Luce is much more confident discussing economics and politics than military matters.
Chapter 4, Half Life. In his summation, Luce returns to the subject of identity politics and his argument that identity liberalism is partly at fault for the election of Trump. Identity liberalism is politics that treats society as less than the sum of its parts, explains Luce. He advocates that the West must restore the public’s trust that all members of western societies share common interests, including the elites. Perhaps, this is Luce’s version of Lilla’s argument that Democrats must re-commit to the concept of citizenship to restore their electoral fortunes in the US. Both Lilla and Luce agree that the core imperative is to find a way back to a place where a comfortable majority in the western community can feel we are in this together.
Luce elaborates on this a bit and argues that western governments must launch a “Marshall Plan” to retrain their middle class workers. He does not make the connection, but it seems true that the happiest time for the middle class in the US was the mid-1950s, according to the Gallup Poll. That was a time when the GI Bill (the largest transfer of wealth in history), a graduated income tax featuring a top marginal rate of about 80% and trade unions at their most influential were all benefitting the middle class. If western governments could recapture a bit of that magic combination again, then perhaps the slide of the middle class could be ameliorated, at least a bit. Luce’s “Marshall Plan” proposal might be part of that.
Not all of what Luce advocates seems realistic to me, but THE RETREAT is a must read for all concerned citizens in the West. We have not come to grips with the economic and political realities of the 21at century, as Luce so poignantly illustrates. In THE RETREAT, Luce has made a useful contribution toward a beginning to do so.
Of course, history had other ideas. Here we are nearly 30 years later and Moscow is hosting conferences on the “polycentric world order,” a Russian euphemism for “post-American world.” That leaves some of us (principled conservatives, classical liberals and centrists) wondering if the American experiment has run its course. Luce’s response to that question is . . . maybe; if we don’t take serious corrective action.
Luce is an English journalist. He was Washington DC bureau chief for the conservative English newspaper, Financial Times. Now he writes a column for that publication. During the Clinton administration, he was a speechwriter for Larry Summers. His political credentials seem solidly liberal, but he has an affinity too for thinkers in the tradition of the 20th century political philosopher, Leo Strauss, who was a reluctant liberal democrat. That makes Luce an interesting and balanced reporter on current events.
Luce’s talent as a speechwriter is very much in evidence in THE RETREAT. The book is organized into four chapters. Each alone reads much like a speech. Luce’s prose is snappy, fact-filled and pleasant to the ear. But as we expect with oral advocacy, it is less rigorous than written exposition. Still, this is a worthwhile book, and I enjoyed learning from it.
The first chapter is Fusion. This chapter discusses the integration of the global economy. The picture Luce paints for the great American middle class is gloomy. He predicts that the pressure on the West’s middle classes will continue to be relentless. He supports this prediction with many statistics. For example, since joining the WTO in the 90’s, China’s trade surplus with the US has jumped five-fold. By 2050, China’s economy will be twice the size of the US economy. India and the US economies will be virtually the same size.
The Rosetta Stone for Luce is the now ubiquitous elephant chart. It illustrates that over the last three decades western middle class incomes grew by 1%, while China’s doubled and Vietnam, India and other Asian middle class incomes grew by 80%. The so-called Bush expansion is the first on record where middle class incomes were lower at the end than at the start. The digital age has not increased productivity as was expected. Unemployment in the US is bang on the same as in Europe. The opioid epidemic is symptomatic of a middle class that has lost faith.
Luce is convinced that Trump’s election crystallizes the West’s failure to come to terms with economic reality. Trump has proposed no solution for the hereditary meritocracy that Americans believe has ossified its once mobile society. Nor does he seem to recognize the implications of job elimination and worker obsolescence. Trump’s simplistic nationalism seems naïve in the face of a powerful privileged class of stateless elites whose allegiance is to global success and personal prosperity rather than to the state of their citizenship. Luce allows that economies can benefit from protectionism. Alexander Hamilton’s protection of fledgling industries served the US well in the 19th century. But does the US truly have the self-discipline to abandon the deep globalization that its influential privileged favor and that has been national policy for decades? Luce implies that he believes the US must re-calibrate and pursue something he calls “thin globalization”. This concept is not elaborated upon sufficiently for me to be confident that I understand the details though I read with close attention.
Chapter 2, Reaction. In this chapter, Luce expounds on the degeneration of Western politics. In 1972, out of 200 countries, there were 13 democracies in the world. By 2000, there were over 100 democracies. However, since 2000, we have lost 25 democracies (as counted by Freedom House).
The glue of commercial democracy is economic growth. But Luce makes clear that he believes some of the world’s gravitation to authoritarianism and away from democracy is explained by politics, not economics. He faults the Patriot Act and the Faustian bargain that the US made with autocrats around the world after 9/11. He believes that, in the process, the US legitimized autocratic regimes. The dubious US experience in Iraq also undermined its credibility at home with rural whites and millennials, who are not committed to democracy unlike the generations of Americans who preceded them.
The erosion of American credibility has affected China and Russia’s aspirations too. They are no longer evangelistic. They no longer strive to export their style of government to the third world. They simply want to rupture the West’s claim to universalism. Luce believes that with Iraq and Trump, the US has made that an easier sell. .
Luce worries that Trump’s victory rekindled demophobia, the ancient Greek fear of “the mob.” How should we respond to this fear, he asks? Is Jefferson’s idea of a “natural aristocracy of the talents” discredited, he wonders? This leads him into a brief and unenlightening discussion of the democratic folk theory vs. the complex liberal idea. Luce reminds us that this debate is ancient. Plato thought the mob could not distinguish between knowledge and opinion. Aristotle tried to address this by combining the rule of the knowledgeable with the consent of the many.
Without resolving this ancient debate, Luce closes this chapter with the conclusion that the West has forfeited its prestige and the world’s center of gravity is shifting east.
Chapter 3, Fall Out. This chapter explores the end of western military hegemony. Luce concludes that chaos is more likely to displace America as the undisputed military power in the world than is China.
Candidly, this is the least interesting of Luce’s chapters. It mostly features Luce’s speculation about how military supremacy will evolve as the economic balance tips eastward. This discussion exposes that Luce is much more confident discussing economics and politics than military matters.
Chapter 4, Half Life. In his summation, Luce returns to the subject of identity politics and his argument that identity liberalism is partly at fault for the election of Trump. Identity liberalism is politics that treats society as less than the sum of its parts, explains Luce. He advocates that the West must restore the public’s trust that all members of western societies share common interests, including the elites. Perhaps, this is Luce’s version of Lilla’s argument that Democrats must re-commit to the concept of citizenship to restore their electoral fortunes in the US. Both Lilla and Luce agree that the core imperative is to find a way back to a place where a comfortable majority in the western community can feel we are in this together.
Luce elaborates on this a bit and argues that western governments must launch a “Marshall Plan” to retrain their middle class workers. He does not make the connection, but it seems true that the happiest time for the middle class in the US was the mid-1950s, according to the Gallup Poll. That was a time when the GI Bill (the largest transfer of wealth in history), a graduated income tax featuring a top marginal rate of about 80% and trade unions at their most influential were all benefitting the middle class. If western governments could recapture a bit of that magic combination again, then perhaps the slide of the middle class could be ameliorated, at least a bit. Luce’s “Marshall Plan” proposal might be part of that.
Not all of what Luce advocates seems realistic to me, but THE RETREAT is a must read for all concerned citizens in the West. We have not come to grips with the economic and political realities of the 21at century, as Luce so poignantly illustrates. In THE RETREAT, Luce has made a useful contribution toward a beginning to do so.
July 5, 2017
Description: Luce makes a larger statement about the weakening of Western hegemony and the crisis of liberal democracy - of which Donald Trump and his European counterparts are not the cause, but a terrifying symptom. Luce argues that we are on a menacing trajectory brought about bgy ignorance of what it took to build the West , arrogance towards society's losers, and complacency about our system's durability - attitudes that have been emerging since the fall of the Berlin Wall.
Nearly three decades later, in the aftermath of Donald Trump's 2016 election victory, I found myself in Moscow. I had been invited to attend a conference on the 'polycentric world order', which is Russian for 'post-American world'. (page 6)
June 9, 2017
Edward Luce is a tremendous journalist. Not only does he work very hard, not only has he earned access to some of the sharpest minds in business and politics, he also commands the mightiest pen at the Financial Times, bar none.
And that’s why I bought his previous book, “Time to Start Thinking.” I did not much enjoy it, though. In fact I thought it a waste of my reading time, about which more later. But long after the average sensible reader would have dismissed “Time to Start Thinking,” he might recall that on page 247 of this 2012 book Edward Luce pretty much predicted that Donald Trump might one day become president, and why.
So the man has form.
That’s terrible news, because on pages 145 – 153 of “The Retreat of Western Liberalism” the oracle of 1 Southwark Bridge, SE1 (yes, I admit it, I looked up the FT’s address online) is predicting a war between the US and China over Taiwan, to take place in year 2020, with a ceasefire to be negotiated by none other than Vladimir Putin. And, believe me, he makes it sound much more probable than a Trump presidency sounded back in 2012.
The main thesis of the book, basically, is that perhaps the West has crossed a bridge to a place where liberal values such as openness and democracy may be in retreat, and then anything is possible. Radical uncertainty, here we come.
It’s written very very well. And it covers a lot of ground. If you want to get your thoughts together about what went wrong, this book truly summarizes 99% of all the good explanations I’ve ever read. My favorite is on page 47, where Luce outlines all the proof you need of the fact that the Democratic party these days only pays lip service to liberal values and mainly serves the rich: “every single one of America’s 493 wealthiest counties, almost all urban, voted for Hillary Clinton.” But it’s really all here, and (as the author promises in the introduction) you can read it all in the space of three hours.
If I had to recommend to a friend only one book to understand where we find ourselves today as a society, this would be the one. Period.
Amazingly, however, and this truly baffles me, the very best explanation I’ve ever read about what just happened in the US, not only was proposed by Edward Luce in the FT on July 31, 2016, but is conspicuous in the book through its absence. In an amazingly incisive article he penned at the time, Luce explained that an American is first and foremost a consumer and that it is primarily as a consumer that he is rebelling against the system. I was dying to read the longer version of this thesis, and in particular I was dying to see Edward Luce weave this explanation into the general theme of the decline of liberalism, but I guess the book had to get out quickly, so it’s not there. What a crying shame!
So you will allow me to be uncharitable for a millisecond and suggest that perhaps that favorite article of mine may have been ghostwritten by somebody like Larry Summers (for whom Luce has written tons of speeches before) and here’s why I’m saying so: because Luce can write like God, it’s easy to forget that he does not always 100% know what he’s writing about and is merely sampling from sources he thinks are good, rather than doing the deep thinking himself. So a good 60% of his previous book is a paean to industrial policy (and indeed could easily pass for a Trump speech with all its China-bashing and FDA-bashing). Also, he really cannot resist a good quote, even if he has not read the source and does not understand the context.
My favorite example: he had to get the “Thucydides Trap” in there as an expression, it sounded too cool to leave out, but on page 156 he suggests that Sparta lost the Peloponnesian War. I’ve only really read the relevant history book in translation, I must admit, but I seem to remember they won, overwhelmingly…
So read this book with caution. It’s truly fantastic, it’s the best summary in print of where we stand in the war between our liberal beliefs and the forces of autocracy, but read it the same way you’d read WebMD if you think you’re sick: as a place to start rather than end your diagnosis.
And that’s why I bought his previous book, “Time to Start Thinking.” I did not much enjoy it, though. In fact I thought it a waste of my reading time, about which more later. But long after the average sensible reader would have dismissed “Time to Start Thinking,” he might recall that on page 247 of this 2012 book Edward Luce pretty much predicted that Donald Trump might one day become president, and why.
So the man has form.
That’s terrible news, because on pages 145 – 153 of “The Retreat of Western Liberalism” the oracle of 1 Southwark Bridge, SE1 (yes, I admit it, I looked up the FT’s address online) is predicting a war between the US and China over Taiwan, to take place in year 2020, with a ceasefire to be negotiated by none other than Vladimir Putin. And, believe me, he makes it sound much more probable than a Trump presidency sounded back in 2012.
The main thesis of the book, basically, is that perhaps the West has crossed a bridge to a place where liberal values such as openness and democracy may be in retreat, and then anything is possible. Radical uncertainty, here we come.
It’s written very very well. And it covers a lot of ground. If you want to get your thoughts together about what went wrong, this book truly summarizes 99% of all the good explanations I’ve ever read. My favorite is on page 47, where Luce outlines all the proof you need of the fact that the Democratic party these days only pays lip service to liberal values and mainly serves the rich: “every single one of America’s 493 wealthiest counties, almost all urban, voted for Hillary Clinton.” But it’s really all here, and (as the author promises in the introduction) you can read it all in the space of three hours.
If I had to recommend to a friend only one book to understand where we find ourselves today as a society, this would be the one. Period.
Amazingly, however, and this truly baffles me, the very best explanation I’ve ever read about what just happened in the US, not only was proposed by Edward Luce in the FT on July 31, 2016, but is conspicuous in the book through its absence. In an amazingly incisive article he penned at the time, Luce explained that an American is first and foremost a consumer and that it is primarily as a consumer that he is rebelling against the system. I was dying to read the longer version of this thesis, and in particular I was dying to see Edward Luce weave this explanation into the general theme of the decline of liberalism, but I guess the book had to get out quickly, so it’s not there. What a crying shame!
So you will allow me to be uncharitable for a millisecond and suggest that perhaps that favorite article of mine may have been ghostwritten by somebody like Larry Summers (for whom Luce has written tons of speeches before) and here’s why I’m saying so: because Luce can write like God, it’s easy to forget that he does not always 100% know what he’s writing about and is merely sampling from sources he thinks are good, rather than doing the deep thinking himself. So a good 60% of his previous book is a paean to industrial policy (and indeed could easily pass for a Trump speech with all its China-bashing and FDA-bashing). Also, he really cannot resist a good quote, even if he has not read the source and does not understand the context.
My favorite example: he had to get the “Thucydides Trap” in there as an expression, it sounded too cool to leave out, but on page 156 he suggests that Sparta lost the Peloponnesian War. I’ve only really read the relevant history book in translation, I must admit, but I seem to remember they won, overwhelmingly…
So read this book with caution. It’s truly fantastic, it’s the best summary in print of where we stand in the war between our liberal beliefs and the forces of autocracy, but read it the same way you’d read WebMD if you think you’re sick: as a place to start rather than end your diagnosis.
July 2, 2020
This was a well-written, if arch, and occasionally paternalistic/condescending anti-Trump volume. I'd still recommend reading it since the author does seem to hit upon some valuable insights - tying various disciplines together and drawing upon history for parallels to the current alarming political situation. However, it's people like Luce that created a monster like Trump in the first place. Neoliberalism didn't lead to the greatest good for the greatest number of people. It led to extreme income inequality. Luce doesn't have a solution - he's in the camp of those that made the neoliberal recommendations in the first place. There could have been a swing to a more egalitarian system, instead a phony like Trump got elected - yet another manifestation of the same "ruling class" albeit decked out as a populist, which is why Trump must continually play the race/religion/cultural card, in all its permutations, as well as evoke fear of the Other. Trump must play these head games with his audience/electorate because he's as phony as they get - no different from the GOP that drafted NAFTA and pushes for globalization. Perhaps the powers-that-be have gotten the message that the spoils of neoliberalism must be spread more equitably? For the time being, a wolf - Trump - has gotten into the barn and income inequality as a result of the tax bill, will get even worse. Will new jobs materialize, will they include high pay and benefits? That would be nice, but you didn't hear Trump earlier tonight (delivering his State of the Union address) extolling more pay, and the need for higher pay. Or pushing a pro-union agenda. No, Trump would never do that. The Democratic Party rebuttal though was excellent - why couldn't the Dems have enunciated their problems with neoliberalism during the 2016 campaign? And promised to do something about it? They didn't - instead they appeared stuck in the same paradigm that led to factories migrating South or East of the Border (Mexico or Asia). Unfortunately the lack of new ideas led to people voting for a racist clown - perhaps the only thing they had left was the fake and racist "hope" that he would deport millions of immigrants and thus their jobs would then be available for the citizens - a recipe for disaster since there already are millions of unfilled jobs in the US (i.e. there's a labor shortage if anything).
Here are some quotes from the book:
"[Putin described] ... the dissolution of the Soviet Union as the 'greatest geopolitical tragedy of the twentieth century.'"
"Barrington Moore, the American sociologist, famously said, 'No bourgeoisie, no democracy.'"
"The emergence of China is the most dramatic event in economic history."
"...liberal democracy's strongest glue is economic growth."
"If seventy-seven thousand Midwestern votes had gone the other way Hillary Clinton would now be president."
"...a new era in which China would aspire to be the responsible global citizen."
"[Xi Jinping said at Davos in January 2017:] 'No one will emerge as a winner from a trade war.'"
"From barely a statistical rounding error in 1978 with less than 1 percent of global trade, China rose to become in 2013 the world's leading trading nation with almost a quarter of its annual flows."
"Since 1970, Asia's per-capita incomes have increased fivefold. ... The West's median income, meanwhile, has barely shifted in the last half-century."
"For roughly seven centuries, between 1100, shortly after the Norman Conquest, and 1800, when the Industrial Revolution took off, China accounted for roughly a quarter of the global economy - and an even higher share of its estimated production."
"The British East India Company ... suppressed Indian textile production, which had led the world. Indian silks were displaced by Lancashire cotton. Chinese porcelain was supplanted by European 'china.' Both suffered from variations on what Britain later called Imperial Preference, which forced them to export low-value raw materials to Britain, and import expensive finished products, thus keeping them in permanent deficit."
"[In the 1990s] Bill Clinton, the then US president, said globalisation was 'the economic equivalent of a force of nature, like wind or water'."
"By 2050 - a century after its communist revolution - China's economy is likely to be twice the size of America's and larger than all the Western economies combined. ... And by then, India's economy will be roughly the same size as America's."
"[Apple] ... shuttered its last US production facility in 2004."
"Today, the US median income is still below where it was at the beginning of this century."
"The asset value of the world's leading billionaires has risen fivefold since 1988."
"...rising incomes for the bulk of society...[is] what we now refer to as the Golden Age of Western middle-class growth between the late 1940s and the early 1970s..."
"With the exception of most of the 1990s, productivity growth has never recaptured the rates it achieved in the post-war decades."
"...the costs, both material and psychological,that we pay for stagnation."
"[During] The golden decades of the postwar era... ....the share of the US economic pie divided between labor and capital was 70/30."
"America...which had traditionally shown the highest class mobility of any Western country, now has the lowest. ... The meritocratic society has given way to a hereditary meritocracy."
"About one in four of the richest Americans attended an elite university, compared with less than half of 1 percent of the bottom fifth."
"...today's poor... are being silently priced out of their homes. ...falling victim to creeping gentrification."
"The rich and the poor no longer live near each other, and the middle class is hollowing out."
"...the murder rate has fallen by 16.7 percent in the US cities since the turn of the century, while rising by 16.9 percent in the suburbs..."
"...every single one of America's 593 wealthiest counties, almost all of them urban, voted for Hillary Clinton. The remaining 2623 counties, most of them suburban or small-town, went for Donald Trump."
"...our multicultural cities...epitomise our oligarchic reality."
"As the city's essential workers, its senior police officers and school heads are priced out of town, they are replaced by wealthy cosmopolitans who divide their lives between different locations."
"The new residents then lock in their gains by restricting land use, which keeps values high."
"Rather than being shaped by those who live there full-time, the characters of our biggest cities are increasingly driven by the global super-rich as a place to park their money."
"A third of Americans who graduated in STEM subjects (science, technology, engineering and maths) are in jobs that do not require any such qualification."
"...thousands of engineers ...cannot find work."
"...there are more Americans and British working behind the wheel today than employed in manufacturing jobs."
"Between 1870 and 1970 - the century of the West's greatest productivity growth - incomes grew far faster than ever experienced."
"...artificial intelligence threatens to eat the whole world's lunch."
"...the informal jobs market. ...[accounts] ....for all of jobs growth since the Great Recession."
"All of America's new jobs have been generated by independent work, which has risen by 7.8 percent a year."
"Such work does not provide healthcare or matching retirement contributions."
"Almost half of Americans would be unable to pay a $400 medical emergency bill without going into debt."
"McKinsey says almost half of existing jobs are vulnerable to robots."
"Populists have little to say about automation, though it is a far larger threat to people's jobs than trade."
"In place of the march toward truth, we had reality-TV politics."
"Just as the West's support for the Afghan jihad against the Soviets in the 1980s laid the ground for the rise of Islamist terrorism, so America's Faustian post-9/11 pacts with autocratic regimes helped sow the seeds for the world's current democratic recession."
"Much of the exemplary work America had done to promote civic exchanges and facilitate dissent behind the Iron Curtain during the Cold War was undone by the cavalier way in which Bush's Coalition Provisional Authority set about democratising Iraq."
"[Since 2008] China's development banks pumped billions of dollars into Africa, Central Asia and Latin America - often displacing Western-dominated global institutions, such as the World Bank, and the Asian Development Bank."
"Beijing now runs more than five hundred Confucius Institutes worldwide."
"It is easier than before to make the case that America's liberal -democratic discourse is a cover for its geopolitical interests."
"The [Chinese] Communist Party's traditional view on US democracy is that America's moneyed classes engineer the victory of the candidate who can best defend the interests of capital. The process is always a sham."
"Failure to diagnose the reasons for Mrs. Clinton's defeat will only make Trump's re-election more likely."
"Donald Trump consciously stokes racist sentiment..."
"...by giving a higher priority to the politics of ethnic identity than people's common interests, the American left helped to create what it feared."
"...blue-collar whites.... ....yearn for the security of a lost age."
"Sooner or later the established parties were likely to pay a price for writing off whole chunks of their electorates as bigoted."
"...racism is not the root cause of the rise of Western populism."
"The populist right only began to do really well at the ballot box after they began to steal the left's clothes."
"In continental Europe, the more generous the welfare system, the more bitter the reaction against immigrants."
"Trump was deadly earnest when he said 'I love the poorly educated.'"
"Without higher growth, the return of racial politics looks set to continue."
"We are on a menacing trajectory brought about by ignorance of our history, indifference towards society's losers and complacency about the strength of our democracy. It has helped turn society into a contest of ethnic grievances, in which 'awakened whites' -as the alt-right now call them - are by far the largest minority."
"The [EU's] system of anonymous committees that set the rules for its member states - from the minutest product regulations to the limits of tax and spending - is virtually impervious to democratic control."
"Politicians promise one thing and do another."
"What if middle America has become so cynical about the truth that it will take its script from a political version of pro wrestling?"
"There is no need to ban books if people are not reading them. If the people are entertained, they will also be docile."
"...it is character, rather than laws, which upholds a system."
"Without a plural society democracy loses its foundation."
"[America] ...has ...devalued its global credibility by prosecuting reckless wars in the false name of democracy."
"...on the eve of the Second World War.... Keynes [said of his views of twenty years earlier], 'We were not aware that civilization was a thin and precarious crust erected by the personality and the will of a very few, and only maintained by rules and conventions skilfully put across and guilefully preserved.'"
"It has been Washington's fixed view since the end of the Cold War that it will do whatever it takes to ensure America's enduring primacy in the Asia Pacific."
"...in the 1990s. China kept growing yet showed no signs of endorsing multi-party democracy."
"It is conceivable Trump is possessed by some kid of morbid spirit."
"Bush Junior's preemptive wars badly damaged America's unipolar credentials. Trump's victory has smashed them to pieces. It is questionable whether Humpty Dumpty can be put together again."
"Trump's animating spirit is to make a demoralized American middle class feel better about itself. His goal is to channel rage, not cultivate knowledge."
"...Trump is shaping up to be the most sordid leader American has produced."
"Trump is too narcissistic to change for the better. The stability of the planet - and the presumption of restraint - will have to rest in the hands of Xi Jinping and other powerful leaders."
"The degree of public trust in [the US and Britain] ... enabled their wartime governments to commandeer resources and direct them to a common end, through voluntary means rather than by coercion."
"Trust is the glue of a successful free society; fear is the currency of the autocrat."
"The surge of bytes in a networked world favors cyber-chaos. ...we are entering a period where instability is growing and the center will struggle to hold."
"Today [the nuclear] ... arsenals [of the United States and Russia] stand at roughly a tenth of where they were at their peak."
"Under Putin, Russia is far less of a responsible nuclear custodian than it was during the post-Cuba [missile crisis] decades."
"The line between reality and virtual reality is blurring."
"...Donald Trump lacks any such trust. He is far more likely to be a source of wild propaganda than a check on it."
"For populists, facts are either with them or against them."
"[Putin's] ...goal is European disunity. It is an aim he shares with Trump."
"The free movement of peoples is now threatened by the populist backlash against the dramatic increase of outside arrivals."
"Trump is inverting .... The link between an America that upheld its system at home and promoted it abroad. The mor scorn he pours on democratic traditions at home, the more he endangers them abroad."
"The crisis of Western democracy is also a crisis of international relations."
"Western liberal democracy ... is facing its gravest challenge since the Second World War. ... At home and abroad, America's best liberal traditions are under assault from its own president."
"Some time during the 1960s, the Western left abandoned the politics of solidarity to embrace one of personal liberation."
"Republicans have spent the last forty years stoking white anxiety while ignoring the white working classes' economic insecurities - or making them worse."
"Almost 60 percent of the US labor force are now paid hourly wages rather than annual incomes."
"When peole lose trust that society is treating them fairly, they drift into a deeper culture of mistrust."
"Depending on the society, most of the West is moving either towards populism or plutocracy. In some cases, such as the US, it is falling into a kind of hybrid pluto-populism that looks increasingly Latin American."
"Trump was supposed to have led a revolt against the elites. In practice, he wasted little time in laying out a tax-cutting and deregulatory banquet for their delectation."
"...protecting society's weakest from arbitrary misfortune is the ultimate test of our civilizational worth."
"Ancient thinkers always thought the rich posed a greater threat to the republic than the poor: they cling on far more tenaciously to what they have. 'No tyrant ever conquered a city because he was poor and hungry,' said Aristotle."
"[China] ..is an immensely sophisticated country that is far more versatile than is so often portrayed."
"People have lost faith that their systems can deliver. More and more are looking backwards to a golden age that can never be regained."
"The conditions that enabled [Trump's] ...rise are only likely to deteriorate during his time in office. We should also fear whatever may follow Trump. Imagine how things would look with a competent and sophisticated white nationalist in the White House."
Here are some quotes from the book:
"[Putin described] ... the dissolution of the Soviet Union as the 'greatest geopolitical tragedy of the twentieth century.'"
"Barrington Moore, the American sociologist, famously said, 'No bourgeoisie, no democracy.'"
"The emergence of China is the most dramatic event in economic history."
"...liberal democracy's strongest glue is economic growth."
"If seventy-seven thousand Midwestern votes had gone the other way Hillary Clinton would now be president."
"...a new era in which China would aspire to be the responsible global citizen."
"[Xi Jinping said at Davos in January 2017:] 'No one will emerge as a winner from a trade war.'"
"From barely a statistical rounding error in 1978 with less than 1 percent of global trade, China rose to become in 2013 the world's leading trading nation with almost a quarter of its annual flows."
"Since 1970, Asia's per-capita incomes have increased fivefold. ... The West's median income, meanwhile, has barely shifted in the last half-century."
"For roughly seven centuries, between 1100, shortly after the Norman Conquest, and 1800, when the Industrial Revolution took off, China accounted for roughly a quarter of the global economy - and an even higher share of its estimated production."
"The British East India Company ... suppressed Indian textile production, which had led the world. Indian silks were displaced by Lancashire cotton. Chinese porcelain was supplanted by European 'china.' Both suffered from variations on what Britain later called Imperial Preference, which forced them to export low-value raw materials to Britain, and import expensive finished products, thus keeping them in permanent deficit."
"[In the 1990s] Bill Clinton, the then US president, said globalisation was 'the economic equivalent of a force of nature, like wind or water'."
"By 2050 - a century after its communist revolution - China's economy is likely to be twice the size of America's and larger than all the Western economies combined. ... And by then, India's economy will be roughly the same size as America's."
"[Apple] ... shuttered its last US production facility in 2004."
"Today, the US median income is still below where it was at the beginning of this century."
"The asset value of the world's leading billionaires has risen fivefold since 1988."
"...rising incomes for the bulk of society...[is] what we now refer to as the Golden Age of Western middle-class growth between the late 1940s and the early 1970s..."
"With the exception of most of the 1990s, productivity growth has never recaptured the rates it achieved in the post-war decades."
"...the costs, both material and psychological,that we pay for stagnation."
"[During] The golden decades of the postwar era... ....the share of the US economic pie divided between labor and capital was 70/30."
"America...which had traditionally shown the highest class mobility of any Western country, now has the lowest. ... The meritocratic society has given way to a hereditary meritocracy."
"About one in four of the richest Americans attended an elite university, compared with less than half of 1 percent of the bottom fifth."
"...today's poor... are being silently priced out of their homes. ...falling victim to creeping gentrification."
"The rich and the poor no longer live near each other, and the middle class is hollowing out."
"...the murder rate has fallen by 16.7 percent in the US cities since the turn of the century, while rising by 16.9 percent in the suburbs..."
"...every single one of America's 593 wealthiest counties, almost all of them urban, voted for Hillary Clinton. The remaining 2623 counties, most of them suburban or small-town, went for Donald Trump."
"...our multicultural cities...epitomise our oligarchic reality."
"As the city's essential workers, its senior police officers and school heads are priced out of town, they are replaced by wealthy cosmopolitans who divide their lives between different locations."
"The new residents then lock in their gains by restricting land use, which keeps values high."
"Rather than being shaped by those who live there full-time, the characters of our biggest cities are increasingly driven by the global super-rich as a place to park their money."
"A third of Americans who graduated in STEM subjects (science, technology, engineering and maths) are in jobs that do not require any such qualification."
"...thousands of engineers ...cannot find work."
"...there are more Americans and British working behind the wheel today than employed in manufacturing jobs."
"Between 1870 and 1970 - the century of the West's greatest productivity growth - incomes grew far faster than ever experienced."
"...artificial intelligence threatens to eat the whole world's lunch."
"...the informal jobs market. ...[accounts] ....for all of jobs growth since the Great Recession."
"All of America's new jobs have been generated by independent work, which has risen by 7.8 percent a year."
"Such work does not provide healthcare or matching retirement contributions."
"Almost half of Americans would be unable to pay a $400 medical emergency bill without going into debt."
"McKinsey says almost half of existing jobs are vulnerable to robots."
"Populists have little to say about automation, though it is a far larger threat to people's jobs than trade."
"In place of the march toward truth, we had reality-TV politics."
"Just as the West's support for the Afghan jihad against the Soviets in the 1980s laid the ground for the rise of Islamist terrorism, so America's Faustian post-9/11 pacts with autocratic regimes helped sow the seeds for the world's current democratic recession."
"Much of the exemplary work America had done to promote civic exchanges and facilitate dissent behind the Iron Curtain during the Cold War was undone by the cavalier way in which Bush's Coalition Provisional Authority set about democratising Iraq."
"[Since 2008] China's development banks pumped billions of dollars into Africa, Central Asia and Latin America - often displacing Western-dominated global institutions, such as the World Bank, and the Asian Development Bank."
"Beijing now runs more than five hundred Confucius Institutes worldwide."
"It is easier than before to make the case that America's liberal -democratic discourse is a cover for its geopolitical interests."
"The [Chinese] Communist Party's traditional view on US democracy is that America's moneyed classes engineer the victory of the candidate who can best defend the interests of capital. The process is always a sham."
"Failure to diagnose the reasons for Mrs. Clinton's defeat will only make Trump's re-election more likely."
"Donald Trump consciously stokes racist sentiment..."
"...by giving a higher priority to the politics of ethnic identity than people's common interests, the American left helped to create what it feared."
"...blue-collar whites.... ....yearn for the security of a lost age."
"Sooner or later the established parties were likely to pay a price for writing off whole chunks of their electorates as bigoted."
"...racism is not the root cause of the rise of Western populism."
"The populist right only began to do really well at the ballot box after they began to steal the left's clothes."
"In continental Europe, the more generous the welfare system, the more bitter the reaction against immigrants."
"Trump was deadly earnest when he said 'I love the poorly educated.'"
"Without higher growth, the return of racial politics looks set to continue."
"We are on a menacing trajectory brought about by ignorance of our history, indifference towards society's losers and complacency about the strength of our democracy. It has helped turn society into a contest of ethnic grievances, in which 'awakened whites' -as the alt-right now call them - are by far the largest minority."
"The [EU's] system of anonymous committees that set the rules for its member states - from the minutest product regulations to the limits of tax and spending - is virtually impervious to democratic control."
"Politicians promise one thing and do another."
"What if middle America has become so cynical about the truth that it will take its script from a political version of pro wrestling?"
"There is no need to ban books if people are not reading them. If the people are entertained, they will also be docile."
"...it is character, rather than laws, which upholds a system."
"Without a plural society democracy loses its foundation."
"[America] ...has ...devalued its global credibility by prosecuting reckless wars in the false name of democracy."
"...on the eve of the Second World War.... Keynes [said of his views of twenty years earlier], 'We were not aware that civilization was a thin and precarious crust erected by the personality and the will of a very few, and only maintained by rules and conventions skilfully put across and guilefully preserved.'"
"It has been Washington's fixed view since the end of the Cold War that it will do whatever it takes to ensure America's enduring primacy in the Asia Pacific."
"...in the 1990s. China kept growing yet showed no signs of endorsing multi-party democracy."
"It is conceivable Trump is possessed by some kid of morbid spirit."
"Bush Junior's preemptive wars badly damaged America's unipolar credentials. Trump's victory has smashed them to pieces. It is questionable whether Humpty Dumpty can be put together again."
"Trump's animating spirit is to make a demoralized American middle class feel better about itself. His goal is to channel rage, not cultivate knowledge."
"...Trump is shaping up to be the most sordid leader American has produced."
"Trump is too narcissistic to change for the better. The stability of the planet - and the presumption of restraint - will have to rest in the hands of Xi Jinping and other powerful leaders."
"The degree of public trust in [the US and Britain] ... enabled their wartime governments to commandeer resources and direct them to a common end, through voluntary means rather than by coercion."
"Trust is the glue of a successful free society; fear is the currency of the autocrat."
"The surge of bytes in a networked world favors cyber-chaos. ...we are entering a period where instability is growing and the center will struggle to hold."
"Today [the nuclear] ... arsenals [of the United States and Russia] stand at roughly a tenth of where they were at their peak."
"Under Putin, Russia is far less of a responsible nuclear custodian than it was during the post-Cuba [missile crisis] decades."
"The line between reality and virtual reality is blurring."
"...Donald Trump lacks any such trust. He is far more likely to be a source of wild propaganda than a check on it."
"For populists, facts are either with them or against them."
"[Putin's] ...goal is European disunity. It is an aim he shares with Trump."
"The free movement of peoples is now threatened by the populist backlash against the dramatic increase of outside arrivals."
"Trump is inverting .... The link between an America that upheld its system at home and promoted it abroad. The mor scorn he pours on democratic traditions at home, the more he endangers them abroad."
"The crisis of Western democracy is also a crisis of international relations."
"Western liberal democracy ... is facing its gravest challenge since the Second World War. ... At home and abroad, America's best liberal traditions are under assault from its own president."
"Some time during the 1960s, the Western left abandoned the politics of solidarity to embrace one of personal liberation."
"Republicans have spent the last forty years stoking white anxiety while ignoring the white working classes' economic insecurities - or making them worse."
"Almost 60 percent of the US labor force are now paid hourly wages rather than annual incomes."
"When peole lose trust that society is treating them fairly, they drift into a deeper culture of mistrust."
"Depending on the society, most of the West is moving either towards populism or plutocracy. In some cases, such as the US, it is falling into a kind of hybrid pluto-populism that looks increasingly Latin American."
"Trump was supposed to have led a revolt against the elites. In practice, he wasted little time in laying out a tax-cutting and deregulatory banquet for their delectation."
"...protecting society's weakest from arbitrary misfortune is the ultimate test of our civilizational worth."
"Ancient thinkers always thought the rich posed a greater threat to the republic than the poor: they cling on far more tenaciously to what they have. 'No tyrant ever conquered a city because he was poor and hungry,' said Aristotle."
"[China] ..is an immensely sophisticated country that is far more versatile than is so often portrayed."
"People have lost faith that their systems can deliver. More and more are looking backwards to a golden age that can never be regained."
"The conditions that enabled [Trump's] ...rise are only likely to deteriorate during his time in office. We should also fear whatever may follow Trump. Imagine how things would look with a competent and sophisticated white nationalist in the White House."
February 20, 2018
The Retreat of Western Liberalism by Edward Luce, is an interesting book examining the recent reverses in traditional Liberal Democracy experienced globally. Luce focuses on the political philosophy of this trend, and examines global ideas, situations and data, from the US and UK, to Hungary, Turkey, China, India and so on. Luce's book is fascinating in that it looks at the big ideas behind this step toward autocracy, and covers a wide arrange of topics, from Western Exceptionalism, to international diplomacy, to social and cultural ideas, to immigration and identity politics. This is a fascinating book that takes a deeper look at the issues currently faced in the worlds Western Liberal democracies, and how the erosion of western hegemony is leading to internal crisis in many Western nations.
Luce’s book is divided into four parts. The first is called Fusion. It examines the decreasing differences between the world’s supposed rivals. This is how autocratic China can become the champion of globalisation and free trade. It is also how the United States and Russia can temporarily align on geopolitical issues, alter each other’s election cycles, all while fighting a proxy war in Ukraine and Syria. It is how many of the world’s leading democracies, like France, Britain and Australia, can join the Asian Infrastructure Development Bank even with strong opposition from the US. The Fusion chapter also looks at the declining livelihood of the middle class in Western democracies. Most Western nations feature a declining middle class, as income is squeezed by increasingly unequal wages and benefits, part time precarious work increases due to technological innovations at the production level, and societies in the West struggle to adapt to these conditions. This has made a lot of people lose out – especially the working class. Luce sees the erosion of the Washington Consensus both from the inside and out– as white, working class populations become disenfranchised with previous growth models in Western democracies and turn increasingly toward populism as an answer, and as nations look on as autocratic states achieve stellar growth rates and Western growth stagnates. With a massive percentage of the worlds population, countries like China and India seem to be the future of global economics. The West is losing ground, and there is little that can be done. And as the West continues to rail against these changes, all the while struggling to stem the flow of growth away from the middle class and into the top percentile of income earners, it is quickly losing its grip on the Western liberal and democratic ideology.
The second part of the book is titled Reaction. It discusses the political repercussions of this movement in Western democracies. This part of the book is controversial, but interesting. Luce looks at the failure of identity politics and the continued marginalization of the working class as the main point of reaction. Working class members of society used to vote overwhelmingly for Communist/Socialist parties, but in recent decades, these parties have become increasingly Centrist. No longer are the socialist parties looking out for the working class, but instead espousing economic orthodoxy that is anathema to the working class. On top of this, identity politics has (rightfully in my opinion) been pushing for greater equality of all sexes, races, religion etc. This has led to increasing levels of immigration into Western democracies, and the increasing alienation of traditional voting blocs – like the white middle class. Couple this increasing alienation with economic stagnation and you have the perfect tinder for a populist fire. One needs look no further than the Clinton campaign and its inclusionary rhetoric – and its hateful rhetoric toward poorer white voters from the South of the US for an example. Clinton’s campaign failed, so Luce says, because of its exclusionary rhetoric against a good 50% of the US population. Difficult to win an election when one is not trying to woo the votes of your entire electorate. Although Trump used similar rhetorical flourishes, his campaign was based on two dangerously attractive principles: a yearning for dignity that was recently eroded (from the white working class) and a hatred for the rich – the very liberal democrats who were espousing ideals of identity politics and inclusion. These two principles combine to lead to a political reaction – one that wants to set the clock back to supposedly better times, even if those times never really existed in the first place. This reaction is all about perception, dignity and the stagnation of living standards. It is a reaction from a group that is increasingly feeling the pinch of economic stagnation and has been held directly responsible for past racism. Similar reactions occur in Europe, which is struggling with massive destabilizing immigration which it is not prepared for. European nations are looking at the instability of the modern Euro, the porous border of the Schengen Zone, and gaze back with rose tinted glasses at eras of autocracy (some as recent as 30 years ago or less) and the results are inevitable.
The third section is called Fallout. This short section examines the fallout of reactionary policies in the West. It revolves around a loss of influence for the Western ideology of liberal democracy. It looks at increasing autocracy in Western political systems as disenfranchised voters look for alternatives to what they see as a greedy liberal elite. It also looks at the increasing likelihood of war. As the US loses influence, nations like Saudi Arabia and Japan eye the creation of nuclear arsenals to combat rivals like Iran and Japan (respectively) and chaotic states and actors like ISIS and North Korea (respectively again). The US’s inflexibility in terms of Asian Pacific policy and its continued meddling in Middle Eastern affairs is also worrying. A more nationalist and populist regime like that of Donald Trump has upped the rhetoric ante dangerously. This increases the risk of a general war with nuclear armed China, which exhibits its own prickly nationalism and history of humiliation at the hands of Western nations. This diplomatic inflexibility is dangerous, and as history shows can lead to war. Luce also touches on the Thucydides Trap, the theory that a rising power and an established power will always end up at war. This becomes increasingly likely when leaders like Donald Trump (who exhibit dangerously naïve and amateur tendencies on the diplomatic front) are in office. Another consequence seems to the continued erosion of democratic principles in Western nations. The people in a democracy seem to crave constant economic growth and (especially in the US) moral superiority over other nations. The fact that these two principles are in sever decline leads to increasing support for actors who will “Make America Great Again” – so to speak. Similar notions are found in Europe. This seems to be leading to a decline in overall support for democratic government, as recent polls show many younger voters do not feel democracy is necessarily important to proper governance – a dangerous trend. Continued stagnation of Western importance and global dominance seems to be the trend as the world becomes more multipolar, and this stagnation may be the death blow to Western democracy.
The final section of the book is called half life. Luce offers brief and high level political prescriptions for the average person. Luce believes the elite in Liberal democracies need to take notice and begin to reverse the trend of economic inequality and the tendency to exploit political populism for votes. Such moves would involve, for example, a simplification of tax codes, progressive taxation schemes, the implementation of full time employment and meaningful working policies, and so on. He argues that alienating the working class is dangerous (lessons not learned in this front it seems) and can lead to rapid political destabilisation. Luce also argues for smarter international diplomacy – centered on empathetic diplomatic engagements, learning more about other nations and their policies, and so on. Luce also argues for smarter immigration policy in Europe to reverse the destabilising effects of mass migration.
Luce’s book is quite interesting and is one of the more intimate books in the pile of post-Trump panic publications that have come out in the last year and a bit. This book moves away from the polarizing politics and dry statistical analysis and instead examines the political philosophy of recent populist trends and declining trust in democratic institutions. Although I am not 100% on board with all Luce’s points personally, this book has some incredible discourse and is eye opening and soul searching in ways many of the recent publications are not. On top of that, this book is well sourced, features reams of clever anecdotes, quotes and analysis of many works of history, economics and social/cultural theory and politics and has some good humour as well. The book is even toned, and does not subscribe to doom and gloom, or rosy outlooks. It is a very grounded and well written book on the potential why’s and how’s of the big shift we have seen recently in global governance, and a critical analysis of Liberal democracy and its shortcomings. It is also a good check for Western/democratic exceptionalism. I enjoyed this book thoroughly (I read it in a day after all) and can recommend this book to any reader interested in the topic.
Luce’s book is divided into four parts. The first is called Fusion. It examines the decreasing differences between the world’s supposed rivals. This is how autocratic China can become the champion of globalisation and free trade. It is also how the United States and Russia can temporarily align on geopolitical issues, alter each other’s election cycles, all while fighting a proxy war in Ukraine and Syria. It is how many of the world’s leading democracies, like France, Britain and Australia, can join the Asian Infrastructure Development Bank even with strong opposition from the US. The Fusion chapter also looks at the declining livelihood of the middle class in Western democracies. Most Western nations feature a declining middle class, as income is squeezed by increasingly unequal wages and benefits, part time precarious work increases due to technological innovations at the production level, and societies in the West struggle to adapt to these conditions. This has made a lot of people lose out – especially the working class. Luce sees the erosion of the Washington Consensus both from the inside and out– as white, working class populations become disenfranchised with previous growth models in Western democracies and turn increasingly toward populism as an answer, and as nations look on as autocratic states achieve stellar growth rates and Western growth stagnates. With a massive percentage of the worlds population, countries like China and India seem to be the future of global economics. The West is losing ground, and there is little that can be done. And as the West continues to rail against these changes, all the while struggling to stem the flow of growth away from the middle class and into the top percentile of income earners, it is quickly losing its grip on the Western liberal and democratic ideology.
The second part of the book is titled Reaction. It discusses the political repercussions of this movement in Western democracies. This part of the book is controversial, but interesting. Luce looks at the failure of identity politics and the continued marginalization of the working class as the main point of reaction. Working class members of society used to vote overwhelmingly for Communist/Socialist parties, but in recent decades, these parties have become increasingly Centrist. No longer are the socialist parties looking out for the working class, but instead espousing economic orthodoxy that is anathema to the working class. On top of this, identity politics has (rightfully in my opinion) been pushing for greater equality of all sexes, races, religion etc. This has led to increasing levels of immigration into Western democracies, and the increasing alienation of traditional voting blocs – like the white middle class. Couple this increasing alienation with economic stagnation and you have the perfect tinder for a populist fire. One needs look no further than the Clinton campaign and its inclusionary rhetoric – and its hateful rhetoric toward poorer white voters from the South of the US for an example. Clinton’s campaign failed, so Luce says, because of its exclusionary rhetoric against a good 50% of the US population. Difficult to win an election when one is not trying to woo the votes of your entire electorate. Although Trump used similar rhetorical flourishes, his campaign was based on two dangerously attractive principles: a yearning for dignity that was recently eroded (from the white working class) and a hatred for the rich – the very liberal democrats who were espousing ideals of identity politics and inclusion. These two principles combine to lead to a political reaction – one that wants to set the clock back to supposedly better times, even if those times never really existed in the first place. This reaction is all about perception, dignity and the stagnation of living standards. It is a reaction from a group that is increasingly feeling the pinch of economic stagnation and has been held directly responsible for past racism. Similar reactions occur in Europe, which is struggling with massive destabilizing immigration which it is not prepared for. European nations are looking at the instability of the modern Euro, the porous border of the Schengen Zone, and gaze back with rose tinted glasses at eras of autocracy (some as recent as 30 years ago or less) and the results are inevitable.
The third section is called Fallout. This short section examines the fallout of reactionary policies in the West. It revolves around a loss of influence for the Western ideology of liberal democracy. It looks at increasing autocracy in Western political systems as disenfranchised voters look for alternatives to what they see as a greedy liberal elite. It also looks at the increasing likelihood of war. As the US loses influence, nations like Saudi Arabia and Japan eye the creation of nuclear arsenals to combat rivals like Iran and Japan (respectively) and chaotic states and actors like ISIS and North Korea (respectively again). The US’s inflexibility in terms of Asian Pacific policy and its continued meddling in Middle Eastern affairs is also worrying. A more nationalist and populist regime like that of Donald Trump has upped the rhetoric ante dangerously. This increases the risk of a general war with nuclear armed China, which exhibits its own prickly nationalism and history of humiliation at the hands of Western nations. This diplomatic inflexibility is dangerous, and as history shows can lead to war. Luce also touches on the Thucydides Trap, the theory that a rising power and an established power will always end up at war. This becomes increasingly likely when leaders like Donald Trump (who exhibit dangerously naïve and amateur tendencies on the diplomatic front) are in office. Another consequence seems to the continued erosion of democratic principles in Western nations. The people in a democracy seem to crave constant economic growth and (especially in the US) moral superiority over other nations. The fact that these two principles are in sever decline leads to increasing support for actors who will “Make America Great Again” – so to speak. Similar notions are found in Europe. This seems to be leading to a decline in overall support for democratic government, as recent polls show many younger voters do not feel democracy is necessarily important to proper governance – a dangerous trend. Continued stagnation of Western importance and global dominance seems to be the trend as the world becomes more multipolar, and this stagnation may be the death blow to Western democracy.
The final section of the book is called half life. Luce offers brief and high level political prescriptions for the average person. Luce believes the elite in Liberal democracies need to take notice and begin to reverse the trend of economic inequality and the tendency to exploit political populism for votes. Such moves would involve, for example, a simplification of tax codes, progressive taxation schemes, the implementation of full time employment and meaningful working policies, and so on. He argues that alienating the working class is dangerous (lessons not learned in this front it seems) and can lead to rapid political destabilisation. Luce also argues for smarter international diplomacy – centered on empathetic diplomatic engagements, learning more about other nations and their policies, and so on. Luce also argues for smarter immigration policy in Europe to reverse the destabilising effects of mass migration.
Luce’s book is quite interesting and is one of the more intimate books in the pile of post-Trump panic publications that have come out in the last year and a bit. This book moves away from the polarizing politics and dry statistical analysis and instead examines the political philosophy of recent populist trends and declining trust in democratic institutions. Although I am not 100% on board with all Luce’s points personally, this book has some incredible discourse and is eye opening and soul searching in ways many of the recent publications are not. On top of that, this book is well sourced, features reams of clever anecdotes, quotes and analysis of many works of history, economics and social/cultural theory and politics and has some good humour as well. The book is even toned, and does not subscribe to doom and gloom, or rosy outlooks. It is a very grounded and well written book on the potential why’s and how’s of the big shift we have seen recently in global governance, and a critical analysis of Liberal democracy and its shortcomings. It is also a good check for Western/democratic exceptionalism. I enjoyed this book thoroughly (I read it in a day after all) and can recommend this book to any reader interested in the topic.
April 26, 2018
This book was like a very long, very engaging Facebook post that consolidates a lot of the general news and trends that most of us are already concerned with today. In sum, it is about Donald Trump, Brexit, the Thucydides trap, AI, the future of work, electoral populism and a number of other topics that you are probably thinking about if you still read the news. Luce provides a nice run-down of why these issues are important to our future, but nothing he says is likely to come as a surprise to an informed reader. What I was really hoping for were some solutions, but like many similar books this one was short on those. Identifying the problems is easy, coming up with constructive ideas is much more of a challenge.
Having said that, and despite the grandiose title and sombre cover, this is actually a very unpretentious book. The author estimated it would take three hours to read and I think even that might've been generous. I didn't really get much out of it and I'm a little surprised at how breathless some of the published praise of it is. But on the other hand it was an undemanding read and provided a few bits of information as well as a few witticisms to chew on. Probably his biggest insight was that Trump will deepen the same toxic conditions that facilitated his own emergence and his funniest joke was describing his mix of demagoguery and celebrity appeal as "Ku Klux Kardashian." Recommended if you want or need an introduction to the politics of this exact moment.
Having said that, and despite the grandiose title and sombre cover, this is actually a very unpretentious book. The author estimated it would take three hours to read and I think even that might've been generous. I didn't really get much out of it and I'm a little surprised at how breathless some of the published praise of it is. But on the other hand it was an undemanding read and provided a few bits of information as well as a few witticisms to chew on. Probably his biggest insight was that Trump will deepen the same toxic conditions that facilitated his own emergence and his funniest joke was describing his mix of demagoguery and celebrity appeal as "Ku Klux Kardashian." Recommended if you want or need an introduction to the politics of this exact moment.
July 8, 2017
This book is littered with confused, overly reductive arguments, and peppered with lots and lots of illiberalism. And it's not really saying anything very new or original. I think we've all realized by this point that Western liberalism is on the wane. I was in India when Modi came to power, and in the US when Donald Trump did. We also know that the inequality has proliferated in the past few decades, creating grotesque forms of disparity between and within countries. Middle- and working-classes in the West have seen immense declines in their living standards and job security and quality. And we all know that this inequality and precarity is largely the result of automation and globalization. A distinct kind of economic policy - that some like to call neoliberalism - is also responsible (Luce doesn't talk about that very much).
Luce seems to see recent events as representing a backlash of these economically disenfranchised middle classes in the West. It's not racism or nationalism or sexism, it's just these poor people who've been duped into voting for people like Trump or Le Pen. This argument makes no sense. Racism or beliefs in national superiority aren't simply confined to the social or cultural realm - they have very real implications for which group has what share of the economic pie. White working classes in the US aren't channelling their anger in the wrong direction - in so far as their aim is to empower (economically and otherwise) themselves at the expense of the minorities they so despise, voting for Donald Trump was, in a sense, the right decision.
And Luce himself comes very close to justifying their reactionary logic - for instance, he says that Western countries will have to make decisions restricting immigration, however "tough" it may sound, if they have any hope of preserving their democratic political institutions. What's the argument justifying this position? Surely we've moved past this already. It's far from obvious to me why immigration needs to be curtailed and why beliefs that immigrants hurt the national economy/society/cultural fabric are anything but racist.
I'm going to go read Naomi Klein's No is not enough and hope that I have better luck!
Luce seems to see recent events as representing a backlash of these economically disenfranchised middle classes in the West. It's not racism or nationalism or sexism, it's just these poor people who've been duped into voting for people like Trump or Le Pen. This argument makes no sense. Racism or beliefs in national superiority aren't simply confined to the social or cultural realm - they have very real implications for which group has what share of the economic pie. White working classes in the US aren't channelling their anger in the wrong direction - in so far as their aim is to empower (economically and otherwise) themselves at the expense of the minorities they so despise, voting for Donald Trump was, in a sense, the right decision.
And Luce himself comes very close to justifying their reactionary logic - for instance, he says that Western countries will have to make decisions restricting immigration, however "tough" it may sound, if they have any hope of preserving their democratic political institutions. What's the argument justifying this position? Surely we've moved past this already. It's far from obvious to me why immigration needs to be curtailed and why beliefs that immigrants hurt the national economy/society/cultural fabric are anything but racist.
I'm going to go read Naomi Klein's No is not enough and hope that I have better luck!
February 17, 2019
Page 186 (my book)
There is a line between convincing people of the merits of a case and suggesting they are moral outcasts if they fail to see it. Liberal America crossed that line long before Obama took office.
This book is depressing. Maybe because it talked a lot about the current leader of the United States and his constant affronts to democratic values. The title could just as easily have been “The Collapse of Western Civilization”.
The author foresees a coming military confrontation between China and the U.S. in which Putin comes off as the winner for settling the dispute. This conflict would likely be over the island of Taiwan which China claims as an integral part of China itself.
As the author points out “democracy” has not always been the preferred modus for nations to aspire to. Democracy only started to enter the lexicon after the First World War. And now there are global trends moving away from democracy. There are less democratic states now than at the beginning of this millennium.
In the first section he focuses on how current democracies are becoming less fair to its citizens. There is an entrenched elite who do not want to part with their money and power. Leaders are unresponsive to the real requirements of their electorate (a prime example is in the United States where less and less people vote). But all this is not new. So, although well expounded, with examples from the United States and England, we are provided with summations already provided by other sources.
Page 101
Trump was deadly earnest when he said “I love the poorly educated”.
I also feel the author overrates the current influence of Russia’s Putin. Unlike the U.S., Russia does not have many friends of its borders. What will become Russia after Putin?
The overall theme of this book is that China is eclipsing democratic states economically and it is gathering more and more military power. In many ways China is now the country to emulate, as Trump’s America descends into a populist pseudo-nation.
I really hope things are not as bad as presented in this book. As Churchill said about democracy “Indeed it has been said that democracy is the worst form of government except for all those other forms that have been tried from time to time.”
There is a line between convincing people of the merits of a case and suggesting they are moral outcasts if they fail to see it. Liberal America crossed that line long before Obama took office.
This book is depressing. Maybe because it talked a lot about the current leader of the United States and his constant affronts to democratic values. The title could just as easily have been “The Collapse of Western Civilization”.
The author foresees a coming military confrontation between China and the U.S. in which Putin comes off as the winner for settling the dispute. This conflict would likely be over the island of Taiwan which China claims as an integral part of China itself.
As the author points out “democracy” has not always been the preferred modus for nations to aspire to. Democracy only started to enter the lexicon after the First World War. And now there are global trends moving away from democracy. There are less democratic states now than at the beginning of this millennium.
In the first section he focuses on how current democracies are becoming less fair to its citizens. There is an entrenched elite who do not want to part with their money and power. Leaders are unresponsive to the real requirements of their electorate (a prime example is in the United States where less and less people vote). But all this is not new. So, although well expounded, with examples from the United States and England, we are provided with summations already provided by other sources.
Page 101
Trump was deadly earnest when he said “I love the poorly educated”.
I also feel the author overrates the current influence of Russia’s Putin. Unlike the U.S., Russia does not have many friends of its borders. What will become Russia after Putin?
The overall theme of this book is that China is eclipsing democratic states economically and it is gathering more and more military power. In many ways China is now the country to emulate, as Trump’s America descends into a populist pseudo-nation.
I really hope things are not as bad as presented in this book. As Churchill said about democracy “Indeed it has been said that democracy is the worst form of government except for all those other forms that have been tried from time to time.”
September 14, 2017
This is a very smart, lucid, and independent-minded look at the issues plaguing what we consider to be "liberal democracy," today and some of the skewed points of view that its beneficiaries have about its upkeep and promotion. It seems almost funny now that after the fall of the Berlin Wall, Francis Fukuyama had this to say in his End of History essay:
"What we may be witnessing is not just the end of the Cold War...but the end of history as such: that is, the end point of mankind's ideological evolution and the universalisation of Western liberal democracy as the final form of human government."
How the times and worldviews have changed...
Edward Luce provides great commentary on several trends since the collapse of the Soviet Union that effectively serve as a wake-up call for those who for some reason still think Fukuyama's assessment correct (Fukuyama himself doesn't think so) and for those who think their current Western governments are actually in line with their more folkish ideals as to what a liberal democracy is. Short, readable, and thought-provoking; this won't take you too long and is worth the brief ride.
"What we may be witnessing is not just the end of the Cold War...but the end of history as such: that is, the end point of mankind's ideological evolution and the universalisation of Western liberal democracy as the final form of human government."
How the times and worldviews have changed...
Edward Luce provides great commentary on several trends since the collapse of the Soviet Union that effectively serve as a wake-up call for those who for some reason still think Fukuyama's assessment correct (Fukuyama himself doesn't think so) and for those who think their current Western governments are actually in line with their more folkish ideals as to what a liberal democracy is. Short, readable, and thought-provoking; this won't take you too long and is worth the brief ride.
October 31, 2025
Give a reporter some years in his profession and send him overseas and he’ll start quoting Versaille and Westphalia and suddenly you’re supposed to believe his insights are any better than the guy selling hoagies on Staten Island.
This is 2017
“America had just elected a president who was a big fan of walls and a big admirer of Vladimir Putin.”
All the trumphate, so tedious, so tiresome
“His campaign had even profited from Moscow’s assistance.”
No the Dems weaponized a ridiculous dossier, fed it to the fbi flunkies and hamstrung Trump’s first term.
“Trump’s victory was an accident delivered by the dying gasp of America’s white majority–and abetted by Putin.”
No, as he even notes partially, 1/3 of counties that voted for Obama twice voted for trump in 2016
“Donald Trump offers a cure worse than the disease.”
Trumphate
“annual gains were almost metronomic. Then something went wrong. It can be corrected, we tell ourselves. The West somehow managed to step off the natural escalator that assured annual income growth of 2 to 3 per cent, which roughly doubled our standard of living every generation or faster. We had faith that by the end of their lives our children would be three to four times better off than we are”
The fantasy that the huge economic gains wrought by the singular forces of victory in WW2, massive tech innovation, defeated rivals, and a bankrupt enemy would continue forever.
“you want to be smart and highly energetic, the most important single step you could take is to choose the right parents,”
Bc IQ is real and has great explanatory power.
“their just rewards to see it. Sooner or later something will give. An exaggeration? About a third of legacy applicants–those whose parent attended–are accepted into Harvard. Richard Reeves of the Brookings Institution calls them ‘dream hoarders’.
Legacy admits to Harvard in 2024 had higher SATs than non legacies.
“Chicago now takes the best and the brightest from the small towns of America and plugs them into the global economy.”
Chicago is a city so mired in debt they sold their parking meter revenue for the next 75 years. Chicago is a failing city.
“Chicago’s success is no longer symbiotic with its rural neighbor's.”
There is no metric where Chicago is a success: debt, crime, declining population
‘Moscow can feel like an oligarchy in the morning and a democracy in the afternoon, a monarchy for dinner and a totalitarian state by bedtime,’ wrote Peter Pomerantsev, in his book Nothing Is True and Everything Is Possible. 2 Such manipulations are starting to feel ominously familiar in Trump’s America.”
Trumphate
“To be clear: Trump poses a mortal threat to all America’s most precious qualities.”
Trumphate
“More seriously, efforts to suppress the democratic franchise in many US states, particularly among African-Americans, have reached a pitch not seen since the civil rights era. Trump will make that drastically worse.”
Stacey Abrams lost her voting rights suit when the judge threw out her 100 page lawsuit bc she had shown zero black voters had been denied or hampered in voting…Georgia had a greater percent of black voters than Massachusetts did.
“Those beneath him, notably the Cherokee Indians, were uprooted from their homes in the largest transfer of a Native American people to date. It is hard to miss the parallel to Trump’s plans to deport up to eleven million Mexican immigrants.”
Anyone who can’t write illegal aliens is a fraud.
“Comey was panicked by Trump into issuing his statement about the re-opening of the FBI investigation into Mrs Clinton’s emails.”
No one even claims this. Comey thought like everyone Hillary had the election in the bag so he wanted to handwave his regal greatness by becoming the cynosure.
“issued an executive order banning refugees from Syria. It turns out Trump’s promise to ban Muslims from entering the US was also real. So too, I believe, was his vow to deport millions of Mexican immigrants.”
Luce mentions this several times. Trump’s ban was upheld by SCOTUS, and again he doesn’t write illegal aliens.
“forge a partnership with Putin”
Putin invaded Crimea under Obama and Ukraine proper under Biden…nuff said
“months after that, the genie was already out of the bottle. Indeed, with a US destroyer at the bottom of the South China Sea and large-scale US strikes on China’s naval bases, we can feel lucky it did not turn into a global conflagration.”
Luce trying to prognosticate a war with China…he was wrong. Trumps foreign policy has been quite successful.
“While Trump is president, global proliferation is almost certain to get worse.”
Wrong again, it got better when we let israel destroy Irans nuclear capability…
“Trump has also continued to cast doubt on the future of Nato.”
Trump bullied NATO into living up to its treaty requirements by putting more money in defense…
“it is safe to say that if Germany fails to lead Europe, the European Union will fall apart.”
Wrong again…
“The massacre in San Bernardino took place in late 2015, just as Trump’s primary campaign was consolidating its lead. That was when Trump first proposed the Muslim visa ban.”
Tries to blame Trump for a terrorist attack that happened under Obama that was years in the planning
“Trump’s victory had put the Iran nuclear deal into question”
Trump axed the deal, and hows Iran doing now?
Trump’s tenure has been the only president in about a century where the U.S. has not been at war…
This is 2017
“America had just elected a president who was a big fan of walls and a big admirer of Vladimir Putin.”
All the trumphate, so tedious, so tiresome
“His campaign had even profited from Moscow’s assistance.”
No the Dems weaponized a ridiculous dossier, fed it to the fbi flunkies and hamstrung Trump’s first term.
“Trump’s victory was an accident delivered by the dying gasp of America’s white majority–and abetted by Putin.”
No, as he even notes partially, 1/3 of counties that voted for Obama twice voted for trump in 2016
“Donald Trump offers a cure worse than the disease.”
Trumphate
“annual gains were almost metronomic. Then something went wrong. It can be corrected, we tell ourselves. The West somehow managed to step off the natural escalator that assured annual income growth of 2 to 3 per cent, which roughly doubled our standard of living every generation or faster. We had faith that by the end of their lives our children would be three to four times better off than we are”
The fantasy that the huge economic gains wrought by the singular forces of victory in WW2, massive tech innovation, defeated rivals, and a bankrupt enemy would continue forever.
“you want to be smart and highly energetic, the most important single step you could take is to choose the right parents,”
Bc IQ is real and has great explanatory power.
“their just rewards to see it. Sooner or later something will give. An exaggeration? About a third of legacy applicants–those whose parent attended–are accepted into Harvard. Richard Reeves of the Brookings Institution calls them ‘dream hoarders’.
Legacy admits to Harvard in 2024 had higher SATs than non legacies.
“Chicago now takes the best and the brightest from the small towns of America and plugs them into the global economy.”
Chicago is a city so mired in debt they sold their parking meter revenue for the next 75 years. Chicago is a failing city.
“Chicago’s success is no longer symbiotic with its rural neighbor's.”
There is no metric where Chicago is a success: debt, crime, declining population
‘Moscow can feel like an oligarchy in the morning and a democracy in the afternoon, a monarchy for dinner and a totalitarian state by bedtime,’ wrote Peter Pomerantsev, in his book Nothing Is True and Everything Is Possible. 2 Such manipulations are starting to feel ominously familiar in Trump’s America.”
Trumphate
“To be clear: Trump poses a mortal threat to all America’s most precious qualities.”
Trumphate
“More seriously, efforts to suppress the democratic franchise in many US states, particularly among African-Americans, have reached a pitch not seen since the civil rights era. Trump will make that drastically worse.”
Stacey Abrams lost her voting rights suit when the judge threw out her 100 page lawsuit bc she had shown zero black voters had been denied or hampered in voting…Georgia had a greater percent of black voters than Massachusetts did.
“Those beneath him, notably the Cherokee Indians, were uprooted from their homes in the largest transfer of a Native American people to date. It is hard to miss the parallel to Trump’s plans to deport up to eleven million Mexican immigrants.”
Anyone who can’t write illegal aliens is a fraud.
“Comey was panicked by Trump into issuing his statement about the re-opening of the FBI investigation into Mrs Clinton’s emails.”
No one even claims this. Comey thought like everyone Hillary had the election in the bag so he wanted to handwave his regal greatness by becoming the cynosure.
“issued an executive order banning refugees from Syria. It turns out Trump’s promise to ban Muslims from entering the US was also real. So too, I believe, was his vow to deport millions of Mexican immigrants.”
Luce mentions this several times. Trump’s ban was upheld by SCOTUS, and again he doesn’t write illegal aliens.
“forge a partnership with Putin”
Putin invaded Crimea under Obama and Ukraine proper under Biden…nuff said
“months after that, the genie was already out of the bottle. Indeed, with a US destroyer at the bottom of the South China Sea and large-scale US strikes on China’s naval bases, we can feel lucky it did not turn into a global conflagration.”
Luce trying to prognosticate a war with China…he was wrong. Trumps foreign policy has been quite successful.
“While Trump is president, global proliferation is almost certain to get worse.”
Wrong again, it got better when we let israel destroy Irans nuclear capability…
“Trump has also continued to cast doubt on the future of Nato.”
Trump bullied NATO into living up to its treaty requirements by putting more money in defense…
“it is safe to say that if Germany fails to lead Europe, the European Union will fall apart.”
Wrong again…
“The massacre in San Bernardino took place in late 2015, just as Trump’s primary campaign was consolidating its lead. That was when Trump first proposed the Muslim visa ban.”
Tries to blame Trump for a terrorist attack that happened under Obama that was years in the planning
“Trump’s victory had put the Iran nuclear deal into question”
Trump axed the deal, and hows Iran doing now?
Trump’s tenure has been the only president in about a century where the U.S. has not been at war…
July 30, 2017
This book offers a pessimistic view on the future of liberal democracy, and interprets its recent spread not as an unstoppable or monotonic trend of history, but as a fragile system, open to an attack from both within (e.g., election of Donald Trump), and outside (e.g., Russia, China). The West is not a natural outcome of a linear progress of history and it might not represent mankind’s enlightenment on morality and virtue. As the book puts it, “We are on a menacing trajectory brought about by ignorance of what it took to build the West, arrogance towards society’s economic losers, and complacency about our system’s durability”. Overall, this book is a great way to become more depressed about humanity’s future.
The topics are interesting but I’ve come to dislike the author’s writing stye. Perhaps this is because my mathematical training begs for a very clearly stated sequences of statements that are supported by arguments at each stage. Instead, I found Luce’s writing to be sprawling, overly abstract, unfocused and even rambling. As if each section started as a 2am entry into a “random thoughts” bed-side journal, and was later put through a best-effort conversion into a book by an editor.
The book is quite short, and hence worth a read if you're interested in the topics, or if you are too optimistic about the future.
The topics are interesting but I’ve come to dislike the author’s writing stye. Perhaps this is because my mathematical training begs for a very clearly stated sequences of statements that are supported by arguments at each stage. Instead, I found Luce’s writing to be sprawling, overly abstract, unfocused and even rambling. As if each section started as a 2am entry into a “random thoughts” bed-side journal, and was later put through a best-effort conversion into a book by an editor.
The book is quite short, and hence worth a read if you're interested in the topics, or if you are too optimistic about the future.
December 15, 2017
There was a lot in here, but I felt like the book could have used some more cautious thinking and editing. It felt a bit all over the place--first china, then identity politics, then Trump. I agree generally with the idea, but I would have liked a more rigorous and careful thesis. He sort of pulls from here and there and it would have made a thought-provoking article, but there's not enough original thinking here for a whole book.
September 3, 2017
Insightful, clear-headed, very readable and -- to my mind -- right in all the particulars. A slim volume with a very large and critically important message. The trend we've seen in technology (AI, automation, social media), politics (growing polarization), economics, etc., are coming together into what might easily become a perfect storm if we don't address them.
His key point: For nearly a century, we've believed that Western liberal democracy is the form of government most people want and that it is quite secure in Western countries, but our confidence is based on faulty assumptions. In fact, more and more people -- young people in particular, even here in the US -- are thinking that a military government or a "benevolent" authoritarian regime might be preferable to liberal democracy.
We need to pay attention.
His key point: For nearly a century, we've believed that Western liberal democracy is the form of government most people want and that it is quite secure in Western countries, but our confidence is based on faulty assumptions. In fact, more and more people -- young people in particular, even here in the US -- are thinking that a military government or a "benevolent" authoritarian regime might be preferable to liberal democracy.
We need to pay attention.
June 7, 2017
32nd book for 2017.
In this short book, Luce, who once played truant at Oxford so he could party in Berlin at the fall of the Wall, gives a insightful and depressing account of how Western liberal democracies are an endangered species that may not survive the coming decades.
There are no simple answers here, but Luce knows which threads to pull for maximum effect. The rise of Trump and what it means for America (and the World) are examined in detail. Technological advances in automation, and subsequent unemployment, may lead to a permanent underclass that undercuts any chances for pluralistic democracies.
I found his hypothetical account (which I read shortly before going to sleep) of how Trump could go to war with China in 2020, and Putin subsequently receive a much deserved Nobel Peace Prize, both chilling and informative.
In this short book, Luce, who once played truant at Oxford so he could party in Berlin at the fall of the Wall, gives a insightful and depressing account of how Western liberal democracies are an endangered species that may not survive the coming decades.
There are no simple answers here, but Luce knows which threads to pull for maximum effect. The rise of Trump and what it means for America (and the World) are examined in detail. Technological advances in automation, and subsequent unemployment, may lead to a permanent underclass that undercuts any chances for pluralistic democracies.
I found his hypothetical account (which I read shortly before going to sleep) of how Trump could go to war with China in 2020, and Putin subsequently receive a much deserved Nobel Peace Prize, both chilling and informative.
November 28, 2017
I’d give this book ten stars if I could. This is a brilliant, lucid analysis of the building crisis in Western democracy that I think we’re all starting to feel in one way or another. Mercifully, it’s written by a Brit; it’s impossible to read an American’s opinions about American politics without investing those opinions with a ton of imagined baggage and backstory. Luce, however, paints our system with a steady and even-handed brush that feels emotionally removed from the fray. It’s been fun – I can’t even think of the last time I read a political piece by anyone and didn’t roll my eyes and grumble “you idiot” at least a few times. Ok, so here’s the run-down of some of the book’s ideas I found the most interesting.
#1: Liberalism (i.e. the western system of free, democratic societies) is tied to economic growth.
Luce poses the uncomfortable thought that perhaps what we’ve been taught to believe is our society’s implicit belief in the democratic system is possibly tied to the magnificent and ever-increasing prosperity that system has provided for generations of people – Americans in particular and Western economies in general. It’s a depressingly mercenary construct, but unfortunately not difficult to believe. He theorizes that the recent wobbling in the level of democracy around the world can be linked to the end of the West’s runaway economic growth after WWII.
In a personal example, my great-grandparents had small family farms, my grandparents made it to the middle class through entrepreneurship and the auto industry, my parents went to college, and I went to graduate school. That is the definition of the American system of social mobility through the hard work of multiple generations. However, this implicit contract has fallen apart for a lot of people in the last generation, and they want an accounting for it. The situation is further exacerbated for lower-middle class and working-class people of all western democracies; the liberalized global economy decimated the high-pay, low-education manufacturing jobs that once provided a decent living and a pension to boot, and the resulting shift to a service-dominated economy has been unable to reproduce comparable jobs. This point is made frighteningly plain in the so-called “elephant graph” at the beginning of the book – worldwide, the poor and middle classes of developing economies and the very wealthy have all benefited from liberalized markets; the developed world’s working and middle classes, however, have utterly stagnated.
#2: Identity politics endanger democracy, or, a cautionary tale about what happens when the left abandons its roots
In this country, the political left traditionally fought for workers’ rights, for greater social safety nets, and the like – they were unabashedly aligned with blue collar workers and trade unions in an Americanized version of class struggle. This is no longer the case. Luce summarized the left’s bizarre about-face away from representing the economic interests of the working class in the last decades in this way: “The American left had ‘slipped into a kind of moral panic about racial, gender and sexual identity that has distorted liberalism’s message’ (quoting a post-election article by Mark Lilla)…In 1992 Bill Clinton won the overwhelming majority of non-college whites. By 2016, most of them had defected. Having branded their defection as racially motivated, liberals are signaling that they do not want them back…‘Those that play the identity game should be prepared to lose it’”. Indeed. Regardless of one’s opinions about including transgender troops in the military or whether not baking a cake for someone should be a crime, it is plain that these sorts of social issues didn’t speak to the concerns of rural working-class voters in 2016. They signed up in droves for the gibberish being spewed by our illustrious president simply because they were tired of being ignored and talked-down-to about how backward their views were.
I have personally found the emergence of identity politics in America to be a hopelessly frustrating quagmire from which I don’t really see an end. I’m a woman, therefore I should vote against the chauvinistic right. I’m a Christian, therefore I should vote against the Godless left. I’m college-educated so I should vote for Hilary so people don’t think I’m a racist or a moron. I’m a Midwesterner so I should vote for Trump because the Democrats think everyone between the coasts is utterly irrelevant. It’s stupid and exhausting. Yet it’s a phenomenon that has spread all through the Western liberal democracies, right along with the holier-than-thou leftist elites and right-wing rabble-rousing populists.
I appreciated that Luce didn’t go into apoplexies about Trump. I can get that on CNN any minute of the day. Instead, he calmly asks the most frightening thing that I’ve read in a long time. To paraphrase, “what about what comes after Trump?”. The author invites us to imagine a real white-nationalist with actual convictions, political skills, and talent for public speaking. Trump, who is and has none of these things but is rather an egomaniac who says whatever gets a cheer from the crowd, begins to pale in comparison as one imagines what could happen. It wouldn’t make for a funny SNL skit anymore.
#3: Globalization is at least partially a zero-sum game
Luce’s point about how globalization is a much more zero-sum game than we’ve generally been encouraged to believe is both uncomfortable and very likely true. He makes no apology for saying that the EU is a flatly undemocratic technocracy; the more power it has, the less sovereignty remains for the electorates of its constituent democracies. He doesn’t comment on whether this is a good or bad thing, but states the reality of the situation. Neo-liberalism and institutionalism were the fashionable approaches to international affairs when I studied them in college, and the whole idea was that interdependent economies and politics would benefit everyone in the end and that this was the only sensible way to run a world.
As it turns out, however, people still expect their elected officials to prioritize the interests of their own countries – and if global economic liberalism looks like closed factories and loss of living standards it becomes a very tough sell at home. Especially when you hint that these economically displaced people are idiots who can’t keep up and adapt quickly enough to new realities in the economy (ahem, Republicans) or are simply stupid racists who hate Mexicans on principle rather than frustrated people who actually hate losing their jobs and status in society (lookin’ at you, Democrats).
#4: Chinese economic power is a return to business as usual
Luce’s discussion of China is fascinating. He writes about how, historically, China has occupied a very important slice of the global economy. The humiliating reduction under the period of European imperialism and the later Chairman Mao days were an aberration, and China’s resurfacing economic power can be argued as a simple return to the historical equilibrium. Our pearl-clutching on the reemergence of China on the world stage is flatly a matter of self-interest, and has very little to do with ideological issues. China gets this, and it bugs them that we dress it up. If you look at things cynically (or from a Russian or Chinese perspective), our insistence on the moral supremacy of spreading liberal democracy around the globe has always slotted very cozily with the advancement of our economic and political self-interest, and continues to do so.
Furthermore, while western democracies air their political dirty laundry for the world to see and freely announce the sluggishness of their economic growth, the autocracies sit back and show the world that steady growth is perfectly possible without democracy. Luce points out that plenty of developing economies have taken clear note of China’s success and the West’s languishing in the post-2008 financial crisis world. To be fair, most of these countries are/were only democracies because that was the way to get financial assistance from the West, not due to any longstanding home-grown institutions or traditions. If they blew with the fair wind from the West before, there is no reason to suspect they won’t blow to the East if that’s where the promise of prosperity takes them in the future.
The solution? Luce seems to accept China’s increasing influence as an inevitability, but argues that America can potentially use what remains of its international goodwill and credibility to shape the future multipolar world where we have our realm of influence, China has its, and other powers eventually have theirs. To me, this is imminently sensible, as is Luce’s argument that we should flatly let China have Taiwan. It means infinitely more to them than to us, it was theirs to begin with, and a graceful acceptance of a likely future fait accompli would do a lot to assuage Chinese feelings of being constantly disrespected and antagonized. The Chinese system is in no way my cup of tea, but the possibility of the United States playing sheriff around the world is becoming less and less tenable. Accept and strategize for the future.
#5: Democracy is losing its untouchable status in western democracies
I’m going to start by saying that I’m in my early thirties and that I didn’t properly understand that it was possible for this country to ever not be a democracy until I was in my twenties. Literally. I thought that Americans were democratic the way that giraffes are tall and sugar is sweet. Which is stupid, obviously, but I have a hard time un-thinking it and I imagine I’m not alone. Yet people -especially young people - are becoming increasingly hostile to democratic ideals like free speech (when that speech offends them), the free press (when that press is shrill and unhelpfully partisan), and freedom of religion (when religious tradition crosses fashions in liberal thinking). Throughout world democracies, people surveyed are increasingly open to the idea of military rule and other authoritarian forms of government, which I think can only be seen as an expression of belief that democratic governments aren’t working.
Luce covers an enormous amount of material in this slim volume, but it’s all elegantly worded, deeply considered, and very thought-provoking. Read it!
#1: Liberalism (i.e. the western system of free, democratic societies) is tied to economic growth.
Luce poses the uncomfortable thought that perhaps what we’ve been taught to believe is our society’s implicit belief in the democratic system is possibly tied to the magnificent and ever-increasing prosperity that system has provided for generations of people – Americans in particular and Western economies in general. It’s a depressingly mercenary construct, but unfortunately not difficult to believe. He theorizes that the recent wobbling in the level of democracy around the world can be linked to the end of the West’s runaway economic growth after WWII.
In a personal example, my great-grandparents had small family farms, my grandparents made it to the middle class through entrepreneurship and the auto industry, my parents went to college, and I went to graduate school. That is the definition of the American system of social mobility through the hard work of multiple generations. However, this implicit contract has fallen apart for a lot of people in the last generation, and they want an accounting for it. The situation is further exacerbated for lower-middle class and working-class people of all western democracies; the liberalized global economy decimated the high-pay, low-education manufacturing jobs that once provided a decent living and a pension to boot, and the resulting shift to a service-dominated economy has been unable to reproduce comparable jobs. This point is made frighteningly plain in the so-called “elephant graph” at the beginning of the book – worldwide, the poor and middle classes of developing economies and the very wealthy have all benefited from liberalized markets; the developed world’s working and middle classes, however, have utterly stagnated.
#2: Identity politics endanger democracy, or, a cautionary tale about what happens when the left abandons its roots
In this country, the political left traditionally fought for workers’ rights, for greater social safety nets, and the like – they were unabashedly aligned with blue collar workers and trade unions in an Americanized version of class struggle. This is no longer the case. Luce summarized the left’s bizarre about-face away from representing the economic interests of the working class in the last decades in this way: “The American left had ‘slipped into a kind of moral panic about racial, gender and sexual identity that has distorted liberalism’s message’ (quoting a post-election article by Mark Lilla)…In 1992 Bill Clinton won the overwhelming majority of non-college whites. By 2016, most of them had defected. Having branded their defection as racially motivated, liberals are signaling that they do not want them back…‘Those that play the identity game should be prepared to lose it’”. Indeed. Regardless of one’s opinions about including transgender troops in the military or whether not baking a cake for someone should be a crime, it is plain that these sorts of social issues didn’t speak to the concerns of rural working-class voters in 2016. They signed up in droves for the gibberish being spewed by our illustrious president simply because they were tired of being ignored and talked-down-to about how backward their views were.
I have personally found the emergence of identity politics in America to be a hopelessly frustrating quagmire from which I don’t really see an end. I’m a woman, therefore I should vote against the chauvinistic right. I’m a Christian, therefore I should vote against the Godless left. I’m college-educated so I should vote for Hilary so people don’t think I’m a racist or a moron. I’m a Midwesterner so I should vote for Trump because the Democrats think everyone between the coasts is utterly irrelevant. It’s stupid and exhausting. Yet it’s a phenomenon that has spread all through the Western liberal democracies, right along with the holier-than-thou leftist elites and right-wing rabble-rousing populists.
I appreciated that Luce didn’t go into apoplexies about Trump. I can get that on CNN any minute of the day. Instead, he calmly asks the most frightening thing that I’ve read in a long time. To paraphrase, “what about what comes after Trump?”. The author invites us to imagine a real white-nationalist with actual convictions, political skills, and talent for public speaking. Trump, who is and has none of these things but is rather an egomaniac who says whatever gets a cheer from the crowd, begins to pale in comparison as one imagines what could happen. It wouldn’t make for a funny SNL skit anymore.
#3: Globalization is at least partially a zero-sum game
Luce’s point about how globalization is a much more zero-sum game than we’ve generally been encouraged to believe is both uncomfortable and very likely true. He makes no apology for saying that the EU is a flatly undemocratic technocracy; the more power it has, the less sovereignty remains for the electorates of its constituent democracies. He doesn’t comment on whether this is a good or bad thing, but states the reality of the situation. Neo-liberalism and institutionalism were the fashionable approaches to international affairs when I studied them in college, and the whole idea was that interdependent economies and politics would benefit everyone in the end and that this was the only sensible way to run a world.
As it turns out, however, people still expect their elected officials to prioritize the interests of their own countries – and if global economic liberalism looks like closed factories and loss of living standards it becomes a very tough sell at home. Especially when you hint that these economically displaced people are idiots who can’t keep up and adapt quickly enough to new realities in the economy (ahem, Republicans) or are simply stupid racists who hate Mexicans on principle rather than frustrated people who actually hate losing their jobs and status in society (lookin’ at you, Democrats).
#4: Chinese economic power is a return to business as usual
Luce’s discussion of China is fascinating. He writes about how, historically, China has occupied a very important slice of the global economy. The humiliating reduction under the period of European imperialism and the later Chairman Mao days were an aberration, and China’s resurfacing economic power can be argued as a simple return to the historical equilibrium. Our pearl-clutching on the reemergence of China on the world stage is flatly a matter of self-interest, and has very little to do with ideological issues. China gets this, and it bugs them that we dress it up. If you look at things cynically (or from a Russian or Chinese perspective), our insistence on the moral supremacy of spreading liberal democracy around the globe has always slotted very cozily with the advancement of our economic and political self-interest, and continues to do so.
Furthermore, while western democracies air their political dirty laundry for the world to see and freely announce the sluggishness of their economic growth, the autocracies sit back and show the world that steady growth is perfectly possible without democracy. Luce points out that plenty of developing economies have taken clear note of China’s success and the West’s languishing in the post-2008 financial crisis world. To be fair, most of these countries are/were only democracies because that was the way to get financial assistance from the West, not due to any longstanding home-grown institutions or traditions. If they blew with the fair wind from the West before, there is no reason to suspect they won’t blow to the East if that’s where the promise of prosperity takes them in the future.
The solution? Luce seems to accept China’s increasing influence as an inevitability, but argues that America can potentially use what remains of its international goodwill and credibility to shape the future multipolar world where we have our realm of influence, China has its, and other powers eventually have theirs. To me, this is imminently sensible, as is Luce’s argument that we should flatly let China have Taiwan. It means infinitely more to them than to us, it was theirs to begin with, and a graceful acceptance of a likely future fait accompli would do a lot to assuage Chinese feelings of being constantly disrespected and antagonized. The Chinese system is in no way my cup of tea, but the possibility of the United States playing sheriff around the world is becoming less and less tenable. Accept and strategize for the future.
#5: Democracy is losing its untouchable status in western democracies
I’m going to start by saying that I’m in my early thirties and that I didn’t properly understand that it was possible for this country to ever not be a democracy until I was in my twenties. Literally. I thought that Americans were democratic the way that giraffes are tall and sugar is sweet. Which is stupid, obviously, but I have a hard time un-thinking it and I imagine I’m not alone. Yet people -especially young people - are becoming increasingly hostile to democratic ideals like free speech (when that speech offends them), the free press (when that press is shrill and unhelpfully partisan), and freedom of religion (when religious tradition crosses fashions in liberal thinking). Throughout world democracies, people surveyed are increasingly open to the idea of military rule and other authoritarian forms of government, which I think can only be seen as an expression of belief that democratic governments aren’t working.
Luce covers an enormous amount of material in this slim volume, but it’s all elegantly worded, deeply considered, and very thought-provoking. Read it!
November 11, 2017
Here is yet another book about what is happening to Western civilization. This one is mainly based on economics, which makes it even more depressing. It is one thing to challenge the intellectual rot in our universities, but trying to change an economy that is threatening to disenfranchise most of our citizens is a much more formidable task. Several things are happening at once. First, the economic growth we take as our birthright is over in the West because the economy, and the power that goes with it, is shifting to the East. Second, many of the jobs that are left are going to disappear due to artificial intelligence. Third, our own countries are turning into a few urban islands of privilege surrounded by a hinterland from which we extract a few resources and their smartest people.
The natural reaction is the rise of the populist right. Luce does not like this, but he recognizes that we should try to understand why people support these ideas rather than simply demonizing them. He is very critical about the isolation of the intellectual elite (which of course includes him and, flattering myself, me). He mocks the shallow, self serving analysis that comes out of the Davos conferences, and is particularly devastating about the delusions of “Hillaryland”.
The analysis in the first part of the book is brilliant, but it slowly goes downhill from there. It hits rock bottom in the chapter named “Fallout” which opens with a little political fiction story about Trump blundering into a war with China in 2020. As I was reading that, Trump himself was busy ingratiating himself to his hosts in China. He prefers to bully smaller nations.
The author actually asks us to pledge a few hours to consider what he has to say. If you are short of time, you will get the best value in the first hour and a half. But it is good value, so it may be well worth taking him up on his offer. Or at least start with this better review by Athan Tolis.
The natural reaction is the rise of the populist right. Luce does not like this, but he recognizes that we should try to understand why people support these ideas rather than simply demonizing them. He is very critical about the isolation of the intellectual elite (which of course includes him and, flattering myself, me). He mocks the shallow, self serving analysis that comes out of the Davos conferences, and is particularly devastating about the delusions of “Hillaryland”.
The analysis in the first part of the book is brilliant, but it slowly goes downhill from there. It hits rock bottom in the chapter named “Fallout” which opens with a little political fiction story about Trump blundering into a war with China in 2020. As I was reading that, Trump himself was busy ingratiating himself to his hosts in China. He prefers to bully smaller nations.
The author actually asks us to pledge a few hours to consider what he has to say. If you are short of time, you will get the best value in the first hour and a half. But it is good value, so it may be well worth taking him up on his offer. Or at least start with this better review by Athan Tolis.
May 8, 2017
Luce is at his best when examining the tension in democracy between the 'tyranny of the majority' and a 'natural aristocracy of the talents':
'The story of liberal democracy is thus a continual tension between the neat democratic folk theory and the more complex liberal idea. Nowadays they have turned into opposing forces. Here, then, is the crux of the West’s crisis: our societies are split between the will of the people and the rule of the experts –the tyranny of the majority versus the club of self-serving insiders; Britain versus Brussels; West Virginia versus Washington. It follows that the election of Trump, and Britain’s exit from Europe, is a reassertion of the popular will.'
To alleviate the current crisis in Western democracy, he suggests 'eternal vigilance', in Franklin's words, and listening to and respecting the 'ordinary people' and the working class. Democracy is built on trust and respect. But, although Luce doesn't say so explicitly, it is difficult to escape the conclusion that it is too late to turn back the tide of populism. If so, America may well be on its way to illiberal democracy, autocracy, plutocracy or some combination of those.
'The story of liberal democracy is thus a continual tension between the neat democratic folk theory and the more complex liberal idea. Nowadays they have turned into opposing forces. Here, then, is the crux of the West’s crisis: our societies are split between the will of the people and the rule of the experts –the tyranny of the majority versus the club of self-serving insiders; Britain versus Brussels; West Virginia versus Washington. It follows that the election of Trump, and Britain’s exit from Europe, is a reassertion of the popular will.'
To alleviate the current crisis in Western democracy, he suggests 'eternal vigilance', in Franklin's words, and listening to and respecting the 'ordinary people' and the working class. Democracy is built on trust and respect. But, although Luce doesn't say so explicitly, it is difficult to escape the conclusion that it is too late to turn back the tide of populism. If so, America may well be on its way to illiberal democracy, autocracy, plutocracy or some combination of those.
July 3, 2017
A very disturbing look at what is happening today. He puts the pieces together about how we got to "where we are today". I can;t say I like where we are, but it helps me to understand where we are and why. I also understand why the future prospects of "where we are going" are not very optimistic.
I'm 71 years old and have had a lot of that deep-seated mentality that America will always be "for the people." Or at least I did until I read this book. I believe our "institutions" that are supposed to protect us have been gradually taken over by people who want to dismantle it. Trump is just the finishing touch. The "icing on the cake" so to speak. The book did not really mention the extreme fundamentalists impact on this quagmire we are in, but I do believe they also play a very important role; they have placing themselves in strategic positions for many years now.
Putin is also having a huge impact - his warfare through cyberspace is winning
And all of these pieces are happening worldwide
I'm 71 years old and have had a lot of that deep-seated mentality that America will always be "for the people." Or at least I did until I read this book. I believe our "institutions" that are supposed to protect us have been gradually taken over by people who want to dismantle it. Trump is just the finishing touch. The "icing on the cake" so to speak. The book did not really mention the extreme fundamentalists impact on this quagmire we are in, but I do believe they also play a very important role; they have placing themselves in strategic positions for many years now.
Putin is also having a huge impact - his warfare through cyberspace is winning
And all of these pieces are happening worldwide
September 2, 2017
A brisk march through conventional wisdom. Luce's slim volume excels at interweaving information you're probably already aware of with quotes and thumbnail argments from authors of major books.
December 19, 2017
A good review of how we got to where we are. A nice expose of philosophy, political science, and history in regard to liberal democracy and perhaps its successor, illiberal democracy. Luce lays it all out in a sobering and organized manner. He is sounding the alarm. One chapter even has a scenario in which Trump goes to war with China with Putin as the peace broker. Luce plays no favorites and calls out the elites who have misread the public and abused the middle and working class. Greed and a lack of respect have left us with Trump and rising nationalism. Meanwhile Putin the master puppeteer pulls the strings. Lots of meat in this book. It will leave you even more concerned about our future. Luce states that we should not be worried about Trump but about who follows him. This is a short book which I thought I’d race through. Wrong. It demands a slow and deep study.
December 18, 2017
Book is complete rubbish. Luce was blindsided by Brexit and Trump and is freaking out.
According to Luce, "[t]hings started to go wrong after 2000. The first great blow was in Russia, where Vladimir Putin replaced Boris Yeltsin as president and set about closing down the system of free and fair elections while retaining its trappings (78)".
Yes, that's right: prior to 2000, Russian elections were completely above board.
This kind of nonsense continues for the next hundred odd pages. He's a poor historian, and a worse thinker.
According to Luce, "[t]hings started to go wrong after 2000. The first great blow was in Russia, where Vladimir Putin replaced Boris Yeltsin as president and set about closing down the system of free and fair elections while retaining its trappings (78)".
Yes, that's right: prior to 2000, Russian elections were completely above board.
This kind of nonsense continues for the next hundred odd pages. He's a poor historian, and a worse thinker.
October 12, 2019
Kniha, kterou doporučuju všem, kteří se zajímají o aktuální dění ve společnosti. Není to úplně jednoduchá četba, ale zato v knize najdete spoustu odkazů a souvislostí. Výborná záležitost.
November 23, 2018
Pay no attention to the one and two star reviews...those are from rightwing trolls that probably didn't actually read the book, or if they did, Luce's text sailed way over their heads. Lucidly assembled, well-researched, well-composed, Luce writes as the journalist he is, though at times percolates a little too academic. Published in 2017, Luce while doing well to capture the contemporary conditions and lay out his thesis, unfortunately used a great many at-the-time current names that he could have no way of knowing just one year later have already been dismissed, fired, or left of their own accord from the debacle that the 2016 US elections results created.
Luce divides his book into four parts that he calls
- Fusion ... about the integration of the global economy and the impact to Western economies
- Reaction ... about the degeneration of Western politics
- Fallout ... about the decline of US, and Western leadership/dominance
- Half Life ... about what can be done
In Fusion, Luce rightly identifies, and explains his position, China's ascendancy to the top player in the global economy. He rightly identifies Trump as an accelerant in that. And the US, income disparity is a huge factor in the decline, tied to the trap that those on the wrong side are enmeshed. He quotes Richard Florida: "In the US your ZIP code is increasingly your destiny." A consequence of the global decline seems to be the "experts" missing the mark repeatedly. Luce says "Every January, the Davos [World Economic Forum] gathering sounds a little more bemused about what is happening in the world outside." He says that Davos "specialises in projecting the future from a recent past that took it by surprise." My notes on that were:
He further observes, "For every risk, Davos offers an identikit fix. Most of its Latinate prose sounds innocuous. But the lexicon betrays a worldview that is inherently wary of public opinion. Democracy is never a cure." Calling out Davos: "One potential solution could be to make better use of technology in the process of government – not only to deliver services in a faster, more transparent, inclusive and consumer-oriented way, but also to establish a 'digital public square' with more direct communication between leaders and people." My response to that is be mindful of the lessons told in Democracy Hacked. He closes out the Fusion section with
As Luce examines the Reaction leading to the decline, he looks at the impacts of the fall of the Soviet Union, the fallout (not his later section) of the Al Queda attacks.
For Fallout, Luce opens with a "plausible" (his term) scenario about a near future war with China. He's actually correct that it is plausible, and that T is the cause, but he names all the players from State to Defense to political advisors to even the Federal Reserve Chair. The only US players still there are T and Jeff Sessions! I submit that Luce would have thought it inconceivable that the nine other named aren't in their positions anymore! And to pile on, Luce says in commenting on Xi Jinping's term expiration in 2022,
I didn't make any notes for the Half Life section. I don't think he had much to offer in the way of what can be done. And in the pace of the technological world today, nothing would work anyway.
So...good, sobering recount of what's happening, some good thoughts on how we got here and what the consequences are, but no tangible help to recover. Worth the read.
Luce divides his book into four parts that he calls
- Fusion ... about the integration of the global economy and the impact to Western economies
- Reaction ... about the degeneration of Western politics
- Fallout ... about the decline of US, and Western leadership/dominance
- Half Life ... about what can be done
In Fusion, Luce rightly identifies, and explains his position, China's ascendancy to the top player in the global economy. He rightly identifies Trump as an accelerant in that. And the US, income disparity is a huge factor in the decline, tied to the trap that those on the wrong side are enmeshed. He quotes Richard Florida: "In the US your ZIP code is increasingly your destiny." A consequence of the global decline seems to be the "experts" missing the mark repeatedly. Luce says "Every January, the Davos [World Economic Forum] gathering sounds a little more bemused about what is happening in the world outside." He says that Davos "specialises in projecting the future from a recent past that took it by surprise." My notes on that were:
This is too common a condition in the western world. Short-sight extrapolated irresponsibly, and with implied authority and yet without rigor, only to be replaced by the next most recent crisis. At the mercy of the winds instead of exercising strategic initiative...{sigh}.
He further observes, "For every risk, Davos offers an identikit fix. Most of its Latinate prose sounds innocuous. But the lexicon betrays a worldview that is inherently wary of public opinion. Democracy is never a cure." Calling out Davos: "One potential solution could be to make better use of technology in the process of government – not only to deliver services in a faster, more transparent, inclusive and consumer-oriented way, but also to establish a 'digital public square' with more direct communication between leaders and people." My response to that is be mindful of the lessons told in Democracy Hacked. He closes out the Fusion section with
When you put on the Golden Straitjacket, ‘your economy grows and your politics shrinks’. [Thomas] Friedman possesses an uncanny knack for catching the spirit of the age with revealing insights. But he should have dropped the word golden. Straitjackets are for lunatics. We can hardly complain if our democracies have begun to lose their minds.I thought that an interesting adulation with backhanded disparity. Friedman may once have been insightful and influential, but with soundbites only, and nothing of substance. Bad writing sells books because bestsellers rarely get read, and more rarely are understood, and even more rarely have critical thinking properly applied. Friedman's bloviating tends to buffalo many, prompting an image in my head of the pseudo intellectuals pontificating on the merits of Bukowski or Foster Wallace, or Mark Rothko.
As Luce examines the Reaction leading to the decline, he looks at the impacts of the fall of the Soviet Union, the fallout (not his later section) of the Al Queda attacks.
It is hard to overstate the damage the Iraq War did to America's global soft power - and to the credibility of the West's democratic mission. Operation Enduring Freedom, which began after 9/11, was followed by Operation Iraqi Freedom. Both were rashly named. It is one thing to go to war in the name of liberty; quite another to be clueless about it. Even without the doublespeak of the ‘war on terror’, it is highly questionable whether democracy can be installed from the barrel of a gun."That last bit was rather well put.
From America’s post-9/11 blunders to Donald Trump’s election, the twenty-first century has been generous to autocrats everywhere. It is tempting to believe these were historic accidents that will iron themselves out in due course. The human, social and technological forces favouring democracy will ultimately prove far stronger than the ‘shit happens’ school of history. It is a train of thought we should avoid. Bertolt Brecht, the great German playwright, famously said: ‘Would it not be easier / In that case for the government / To dissolve the people / And elect another?’ In a strange way that is what Putin does by manipulating and remaking Russian public opinion to suit his purposes. Messing with people’s heads is also Trump’s specialty.Spot on, that specialty. Here's a sobering observation:
In America, the share of voters describing themselves as independent has been creeping up for years.15 This is no measure of Socratic equidistance. For the most part, independent is a fancy word for apathetic.While there are plenty of end notes, I did flag a few that did not have cites, and to me, that changes the color of the relation of possible facts to pronouncement and opinion. In talking about Trump's pagentry, Luce relates a story about Trump's foray in to the world of professional "wrestling", eventually leading to Linda McMahon getting a cushy appointment. He discusses Chris Hedges's book Empire of Illusion, about WWE, but then
Hedges was writing in 2009. Since then, WWE’s popularity has been overtaken by the Ultimate Fighting Championship, which attracts tens of millions of viewers and earns its biggest stars tens of millions of dollars. Unlike wrestling, the UFC is not scripted. The contestants fight it out in a large octagonal steel cage. They really do aim to hurt each other.I have observed publicly that UFC is a descent into barbarism. It is a symptom of the retreat of civilization. Gladiatorial pugilistic violence as spectator sport was big 2,000 years ago in Rome. That it resurges today is pitiful. As noted above, Luce could not have dreamed up the chaotic mindnumbing daily trials of the 2017-current as of this writing US executive branch. He says in one passage "Putin, who is the only world leader Trump admires[...]". Enter Kim Jong Un and some love letters. Now, as he tried to outline the historically normal powers would keep the executive in check, here is a shot far wide of the mark...it may have made sense when he was writing the book but...If I were a budding Mark Felt [Woodward and Bernstein's "Deep Throat"], I would leak my material to John McCain, the ornery senator from Arizona, or his fellow Arizonian Jeff Flake, or Lindsey Graham, the Republican from South Carolina. There are few who revile Trump more than the Republican hawks.Right on McCain, obviously before his passing; wrong on the spineless Flake; and so wrong on the politically bi-polar Graham as to be embarrassingly wrong. Luce must be thinking "I can't put out a new edition...everything has changed!" But the real crying shame is this:
Finally, there is the judiciary, America's third branch of government. There is nothing to stop a US president from ignoring the courts.Ahem...{whispers aside}...now he has Kavanaugh.
For Fallout, Luce opens with a "plausible" (his term) scenario about a near future war with China. He's actually correct that it is plausible, and that T is the cause, but he names all the players from State to Defense to political advisors to even the Federal Reserve Chair. The only US players still there are T and Jeff Sessions! I submit that Luce would have thought it inconceivable that the nine other named aren't in their positions anymore! And to pile on, Luce says in commenting on Xi Jinping's term expiration in 2022,
It would be a disaster if Xi broke with Chinese precedent and prolonged his hold on power.Well...if "for life" means anything to "prolong"... Luce has to be reeling everyday something new comes along to shatter his backup data! The thesis is still sound...just the reasoning that got him there is no longer valid. But the chaos is. He says himself "This book does not dare offer precise forecasts. But it is safe to say that if Germany fails to lead Europe, the European Union will fall apart." Yeah. forecasts are so far off...but to be fair, how could anyone not assume that T wouldn't have even a shred of respect for the office or the country?
I didn't make any notes for the Half Life section. I don't think he had much to offer in the way of what can be done. And in the pace of the technological world today, nothing would work anyway.
So...good, sobering recount of what's happening, some good thoughts on how we got here and what the consequences are, but no tangible help to recover. Worth the read.
August 12, 2017
'Take back control' was the chant of Brexiteers and Trump voters alike. It is the war cry of populist backlashes across the Western world.
There are two ways of deciphering that impulse. One is to dismiss it as the last reaction of the bigots, who wish to turn the clock back on two generations of hard-won rights for women and ethnic and sexual minorities. These are the people who cling to guns or religion or antipathy to people who aren't like them, as Obama said in 2008. Another is to listen to what they say.
An excellent read, except for the part where the author decided that it was a good idea to venture into speculative fiction. It wasn't.
There are two ways of deciphering that impulse. One is to dismiss it as the last reaction of the bigots, who wish to turn the clock back on two generations of hard-won rights for women and ethnic and sexual minorities. These are the people who cling to guns or religion or antipathy to people who aren't like them, as Obama said in 2008. Another is to listen to what they say.
An excellent read, except for the part where the author decided that it was a good idea to venture into speculative fiction. It wasn't.
March 14, 2019
This book had things to say and it's written with flair
April 1, 2024
This was such a powerful examination of how democracy is slipping all over the world. And though we narrowly missed living through some of Luce's predictions in the US thanks to the failure of the Trump campaign in the 2020 election, I fear it may all still come to pass if Trump is reelected in 2024.
February 24, 2022
Edward Luce begins the Retreat of Western Liberalism with an invigorating anecdote of road-tripping with some other teenagers to Berlin in 1989 to physically join in on the joyous dismantling of the Berlin Wall. This is the visceral energy a defense of liberalism needs, I thought. Unfortunately, the book was all downhill from there.
Luce is very clear that Trump and similar rightwing antidemocrats in the West are dire threats. Indeed, grappling with the Trump phenomenon is the purpose of the book. Yet Luce's ideas of how to counter Trump involve essentially ceding the narrative to the Trumpist Weltanschauung.
This is clearest when Luce discusses immigration. Luce just accepts that the West—both America and Europe—is being overrun by immigrants. He frets that Democrats are unwilling to enforce America's borders, as if deportations didn't rise under President Obama. Luce occasionally slips into incoherence, as when he refers to the West as the "beacon to the world" ... a beacon that must not be approached, apparently. Suggesting a "Fortress Europe" may indeed be necessary—remember, to save liberalism—it is unclear how many bodies washing ashore from the Mediterranean would be too inhumane to countenance.
Luce is admirably sympathetic to the working class, and spends much of the book scolding out-of-touch coastal liberals. Many of Luce's diagnoses are perfectly reasonable. Inequality really is too stark. Socioeconomic mobility really has decreased, and it's harmful to the polity if people see no way to scratch out better lives for themselves than their parents had or, worse, to see bleaker futures for their children. Hyper-educated cosmopolitan liberals with high-paying jobs and inheritances really do need to advocate for policies to raise prospects for the less educated, less connected, and less well off.
But it rapidly becomes clear that the working class Luce has in mind is always the white working class. And for someone repeatedly wagging his finger at liberals for looking down their noses at the (white) working class, Luce lays no responsibility at the feet of white Americans or white Europeans (not just working class, for what it's worth) for voting in reactionary, antidemocratic politicians. While not sneering, this is still placation, coddling.
Luce virtually excuses Trump voters as justifiably angry for Hillary Clinton's off-the-cuff remark about "deplorables". He fails to mention that Clinton's "other basket" of Trump voters "feel the government has let them down" and are "desperate for change" and, indeed, deserve our understanding and empathy. Luce may not realize that as a high power journalist (the book is littered with "I was with Obama when," "I was there when," and the like) he can actually influence narratives. The eagerness of media actors like Luce to portray Clinton as condemning all Trump voters as racist creates and condones that belief. I belabor this example because it is a synecdoche for the whole book. Luce elevates illiberalism, attacks liberals and liberal values, and calls it a defense of liberalism.
The counsel Luce keeps also warrants a raised eyebrow. He refers more than once to the opinions of Peter Thiel, who is described not as a fascist and Trump funder, but a Silicon Valley venture capitalist. Likewise for JD Vance, although at the time of writing Vance had not yet explicitly made his heel turn to reactionary antidemocrat. Luce tells the tale of a French counterpart to JD Vance, a man who grew up a radical leftist and abandoned his ignorant working class family only to discover they had shifted from supporting the communists to supporting rightwing reactions. It is all very moving and sympathetic.
The real shocker is when Luce throws Taiwan under the bus. Adopting the posture of a hard-nosed realist, Luce warns that America and the West will have to make some concessions to China's rise, and that Taiwan simply isn't worth fighting a war over. Foreign policy is hard, and it's difficult in my view to justify virtually any war, and yet Luce fails to note the irony in a book called The Retreat of Western Liberalism of ceding control of a thriving, independent liberal democracy (and country!) without a fight to an illiberal, antidemocratic aspiring hegemon. Perhaps eastern liberals need not apply. To be fair, life comes at you fast, and Luce wrote under the impression that China would respect Hong Kong's special status and that Xi Jinping wouldn't attempt to overstay his 10 years in office. I won't hold failing to predict the future against Luce. But he's still rather soft on China. I don't believe I encountered the word "Uighur" anywhere in the book.
In the end, I would have liked The Retreat of Western Liberalism rather more had I been sure Luce meant the title as ominous, rather than as good tidings. More youthful, ebullient smashing of walls, please.
Luce is very clear that Trump and similar rightwing antidemocrats in the West are dire threats. Indeed, grappling with the Trump phenomenon is the purpose of the book. Yet Luce's ideas of how to counter Trump involve essentially ceding the narrative to the Trumpist Weltanschauung.
This is clearest when Luce discusses immigration. Luce just accepts that the West—both America and Europe—is being overrun by immigrants. He frets that Democrats are unwilling to enforce America's borders, as if deportations didn't rise under President Obama. Luce occasionally slips into incoherence, as when he refers to the West as the "beacon to the world" ... a beacon that must not be approached, apparently. Suggesting a "Fortress Europe" may indeed be necessary—remember, to save liberalism—it is unclear how many bodies washing ashore from the Mediterranean would be too inhumane to countenance.
Luce is admirably sympathetic to the working class, and spends much of the book scolding out-of-touch coastal liberals. Many of Luce's diagnoses are perfectly reasonable. Inequality really is too stark. Socioeconomic mobility really has decreased, and it's harmful to the polity if people see no way to scratch out better lives for themselves than their parents had or, worse, to see bleaker futures for their children. Hyper-educated cosmopolitan liberals with high-paying jobs and inheritances really do need to advocate for policies to raise prospects for the less educated, less connected, and less well off.
But it rapidly becomes clear that the working class Luce has in mind is always the white working class. And for someone repeatedly wagging his finger at liberals for looking down their noses at the (white) working class, Luce lays no responsibility at the feet of white Americans or white Europeans (not just working class, for what it's worth) for voting in reactionary, antidemocratic politicians. While not sneering, this is still placation, coddling.
Luce virtually excuses Trump voters as justifiably angry for Hillary Clinton's off-the-cuff remark about "deplorables". He fails to mention that Clinton's "other basket" of Trump voters "feel the government has let them down" and are "desperate for change" and, indeed, deserve our understanding and empathy. Luce may not realize that as a high power journalist (the book is littered with "I was with Obama when," "I was there when," and the like) he can actually influence narratives. The eagerness of media actors like Luce to portray Clinton as condemning all Trump voters as racist creates and condones that belief. I belabor this example because it is a synecdoche for the whole book. Luce elevates illiberalism, attacks liberals and liberal values, and calls it a defense of liberalism.
The counsel Luce keeps also warrants a raised eyebrow. He refers more than once to the opinions of Peter Thiel, who is described not as a fascist and Trump funder, but a Silicon Valley venture capitalist. Likewise for JD Vance, although at the time of writing Vance had not yet explicitly made his heel turn to reactionary antidemocrat. Luce tells the tale of a French counterpart to JD Vance, a man who grew up a radical leftist and abandoned his ignorant working class family only to discover they had shifted from supporting the communists to supporting rightwing reactions. It is all very moving and sympathetic.
The real shocker is when Luce throws Taiwan under the bus. Adopting the posture of a hard-nosed realist, Luce warns that America and the West will have to make some concessions to China's rise, and that Taiwan simply isn't worth fighting a war over. Foreign policy is hard, and it's difficult in my view to justify virtually any war, and yet Luce fails to note the irony in a book called The Retreat of Western Liberalism of ceding control of a thriving, independent liberal democracy (and country!) without a fight to an illiberal, antidemocratic aspiring hegemon. Perhaps eastern liberals need not apply. To be fair, life comes at you fast, and Luce wrote under the impression that China would respect Hong Kong's special status and that Xi Jinping wouldn't attempt to overstay his 10 years in office. I won't hold failing to predict the future against Luce. But he's still rather soft on China. I don't believe I encountered the word "Uighur" anywhere in the book.
In the end, I would have liked The Retreat of Western Liberalism rather more had I been sure Luce meant the title as ominous, rather than as good tidings. More youthful, ebullient smashing of walls, please.
June 26, 2017
Luce undersøger især vestligt liberalt demokratis tilstand. Luce konkluderer ca. at verden oplever store fremgange i form af færre sultne, og langt flere på vej op økonomisk i forstand. Men mange mennesker i vesten er på vej ned økonomisk
Luce har imponerende bredde i sin tilgang. Geografisk har han tilsyneladende lige stor viden om interesse for forhold i Kina, Amerika, England mm. Han trækker især på statistik, men har også læst bredt. Historisk er der nedslag forskellige steder.
Han har også en kort fremtidsvision med, men den duer ikke for mig.
Man kan trække linjer fra Magna Carta 1215 til nutidens vestligt liberale demokrati. Det er dog en slags fiktion. Reelt begyndte ledere først at fremstille vestlige lande som demokratiske omkring 1. og 2. verdenskrig. Lederne havde brug for begreb for det, mennesker skulle gå i krig for og det, de skulle bekæmpe. Demokrati har siden fået en slags quasi-religiøs status. Vi har det, og skal udbringe det til resten af verden. Verden vil uundgåeligt ende med at være demokratisk. Går narrativet.
Luce mener, at vestlig tankegang er linieær, hvor andre kulturer er mere cirkulære. De mener, at der kan ske ændringer, men den moralske situation er uforanderlig.
Kina er den store motor for nutidens vækst, men Asien, Indien og selv Afrika er også godt med. I 1978 stod Kina for 1% af verdenshandlen. I 2013 havde Kina den største andel af verdenshandlen, ca 1/4. I 2050 antager man, at Kina vil have dobbelt så meget handel, som USA og mere end alle vestlige lande tilsammen. Siden 1970erne har asiatisk levestandard femdoblet og Afrikas er fordoblet.
Elefantgrafen gennemgås. Den viser, at middelklassen og underklassen i de 12% af verden, som vi som vestlige tilhører, er klemt, hvorimod overklassen tjener enorme summer. Det betyder, at der reelt er mindre goder til mange.
Inflation fungerer ikke længere som mål for penges værdi. I USA og UK og også andre steder, er prisen på sikkerhed og andre nødvendige goder steget. Andelen af mennesker med usikre job er steget. Arbejdsløsheden er steget generelt i bl.a. USA.
Analyse af den nuværende teknologiske revolution: Jo, den er god nok til underholdning, men den giver ligesom ikke så meget arbejde eller velfærd.
Risikovillighed er mindre. Mulighederne for at udføre noget nyt, flytte et andet sted hen, osv. er mindre for nutidige vestlige.
s.50. Det blue-colar arbejde, som er vokset mest, er sikkerhed, herunder fængsel.
Vestens morale førestilling er blevet sat overstyr. Der er givetvis økonomiske årsager hertil. Krisen i 2008 var således kun vestlig, ikke resten af verdens. Men også forkerte beslutninger. Her fremdrages især Bush jr.s angreb efter 9/11. Men også Obama kritiseres, bl.a. for uklar og ikke-konsekvent håndtering af Syrien. Først støttede han oprøret. Men da han så, at det ikke umiddelbart medførte vestligt demokrati, trak han sig tilbage. Syrerne står med resultatet heraf. Dette har undermineret tiltroen til libealt demokrati.
Samtidig har andre styreformer leveret stor økonomisk fremgang til deres befolkninger.
Herefter følger hovedsagligt analyser af politik i de vestlige lande. Brexit og Trump er hovedcases. Luce viser, at krisen er dyb og ikke vil gå over lige om lidt. Han viser også, at der er reel forvirring omkring vejen frem. Fx er det åbenlyst ikke sandt, at økonomi ikke kan trives under protektioniske forhold. Alligevel er det historien fra EU, Hillary.
Fin analyse af Hillary. Hun kunne kun vinde ved et uheld. Hun er super teknokrat med dybt komplicerede forslag, som ingen levende kan forstå. Flere rammende eksempler på sådanne forslag. Luce placerer EU lidt i samme boks, idet de også har meget komplicerede forslag, som få forstår. Samtidig har EU udhulet nationalstaternes beslutningskraft. Det ville jo kunne gå, hvis de så leverede mere vækst til befolkningen. Men når de ikke leverer det, bliver det hele meget speget.
Fin lille pointe om, at man ikke skal slå Trumps vælgere i hartkortn med Trump.
Anden lille oplagt pointe om, at man skal passe på med at ride på den høje hest. Fx er det nu blevet bagstræberisk at være imod homo-ægteskaber, og modstandere nedgøres. Men Obama var først for i anden periode, og Hilleray var først for i 2013. Men nu er alle andre altså idioter.
Sprog: Imponerende sprog. Det er meget korte sætninger. Næsten altid blot en hovedsætning og måske lidt ved siden af. Alligevel er det forståeligt. Jeg ville gerne lære ham kunsten af.
Luce har imponerende bredde i sin tilgang. Geografisk har han tilsyneladende lige stor viden om interesse for forhold i Kina, Amerika, England mm. Han trækker især på statistik, men har også læst bredt. Historisk er der nedslag forskellige steder.
Han har også en kort fremtidsvision med, men den duer ikke for mig.
Man kan trække linjer fra Magna Carta 1215 til nutidens vestligt liberale demokrati. Det er dog en slags fiktion. Reelt begyndte ledere først at fremstille vestlige lande som demokratiske omkring 1. og 2. verdenskrig. Lederne havde brug for begreb for det, mennesker skulle gå i krig for og det, de skulle bekæmpe. Demokrati har siden fået en slags quasi-religiøs status. Vi har det, og skal udbringe det til resten af verden. Verden vil uundgåeligt ende med at være demokratisk. Går narrativet.
Luce mener, at vestlig tankegang er linieær, hvor andre kulturer er mere cirkulære. De mener, at der kan ske ændringer, men den moralske situation er uforanderlig.
Kina er den store motor for nutidens vækst, men Asien, Indien og selv Afrika er også godt med. I 1978 stod Kina for 1% af verdenshandlen. I 2013 havde Kina den største andel af verdenshandlen, ca 1/4. I 2050 antager man, at Kina vil have dobbelt så meget handel, som USA og mere end alle vestlige lande tilsammen. Siden 1970erne har asiatisk levestandard femdoblet og Afrikas er fordoblet.
Elefantgrafen gennemgås. Den viser, at middelklassen og underklassen i de 12% af verden, som vi som vestlige tilhører, er klemt, hvorimod overklassen tjener enorme summer. Det betyder, at der reelt er mindre goder til mange.
Inflation fungerer ikke længere som mål for penges værdi. I USA og UK og også andre steder, er prisen på sikkerhed og andre nødvendige goder steget. Andelen af mennesker med usikre job er steget. Arbejdsløsheden er steget generelt i bl.a. USA.
Analyse af den nuværende teknologiske revolution: Jo, den er god nok til underholdning, men den giver ligesom ikke så meget arbejde eller velfærd.
Risikovillighed er mindre. Mulighederne for at udføre noget nyt, flytte et andet sted hen, osv. er mindre for nutidige vestlige.
s.50. Det blue-colar arbejde, som er vokset mest, er sikkerhed, herunder fængsel.
Vestens morale førestilling er blevet sat overstyr. Der er givetvis økonomiske årsager hertil. Krisen i 2008 var således kun vestlig, ikke resten af verdens. Men også forkerte beslutninger. Her fremdrages især Bush jr.s angreb efter 9/11. Men også Obama kritiseres, bl.a. for uklar og ikke-konsekvent håndtering af Syrien. Først støttede han oprøret. Men da han så, at det ikke umiddelbart medførte vestligt demokrati, trak han sig tilbage. Syrerne står med resultatet heraf. Dette har undermineret tiltroen til libealt demokrati.
Samtidig har andre styreformer leveret stor økonomisk fremgang til deres befolkninger.
Herefter følger hovedsagligt analyser af politik i de vestlige lande. Brexit og Trump er hovedcases. Luce viser, at krisen er dyb og ikke vil gå over lige om lidt. Han viser også, at der er reel forvirring omkring vejen frem. Fx er det åbenlyst ikke sandt, at økonomi ikke kan trives under protektioniske forhold. Alligevel er det historien fra EU, Hillary.
Fin analyse af Hillary. Hun kunne kun vinde ved et uheld. Hun er super teknokrat med dybt komplicerede forslag, som ingen levende kan forstå. Flere rammende eksempler på sådanne forslag. Luce placerer EU lidt i samme boks, idet de også har meget komplicerede forslag, som få forstår. Samtidig har EU udhulet nationalstaternes beslutningskraft. Det ville jo kunne gå, hvis de så leverede mere vækst til befolkningen. Men når de ikke leverer det, bliver det hele meget speget.
Fin lille pointe om, at man ikke skal slå Trumps vælgere i hartkortn med Trump.
Anden lille oplagt pointe om, at man skal passe på med at ride på den høje hest. Fx er det nu blevet bagstræberisk at være imod homo-ægteskaber, og modstandere nedgøres. Men Obama var først for i anden periode, og Hilleray var først for i 2013. Men nu er alle andre altså idioter.
Sprog: Imponerende sprog. Det er meget korte sætninger. Næsten altid blot en hovedsætning og måske lidt ved siden af. Alligevel er det forståeligt. Jeg ville gerne lære ham kunsten af.
December 2, 2022
'The Retreat' is an alarming read about the growing inability of Western, especially American, governments to solve their own economic and ideological problems as well as the trouble they're having meaningfully confronting an increasingly strong and confident China.
According to the author, America is in what threatens to be a terminal decline. Trump is destroying what remains of its international legitimacy (in the post-Trump era, the US's reputation has rebounded; bouncing back so quickly from the reign of its most disruptive tyrant ever is proof that American institutions remain strong). Its democracy grows less and less free. Its allies are responding to Trump's inconstancy by becoming less liberal and more self-concerned. Authoritarian leaders in Europe are staging comebacks. Income inequality deepens, unemployment is on the rise, disinformation makes voters cynical and politicians more haughty and manipulative, R&D as a proportion of national budgets is decreasing, and the welfare state is being whittled away. The state of things is precipitous. We're falling apart.
And to top it all off, China openly threatens world domination while the West, distracted by internal affairs, offers little and poorly organized resistance. By the time we wake up to the severity of the threat of the West's decline and fall and China's rise and rise, we'll struggle even to accommodate the changes China throws our way, let alone throw down a challenge of our own.
Get ready for a brave new world. It's time to climb down from our pedestal and strap on our running shoes.
Addendum 3/12/22: I read this book in October 2020. At that time, the world was wreathed in the fog of COVID-induced fear, uncertainty, and doubt. In times of crisis, people try to impose order on the world by adopting extreme, black-and-white views. This is because dichotomous thinking makes things simple: there's one simple explanation for all the bad things in the world (Chinese takeover, New World Order Great Reset, Bill Gates's depopulation program) and one correspondingly simple way to fix it (war with China, refusing vaccines, mistrusting all elites). Some of the fearful stupidity that permeated the entire world in that historical moment also coloured this review. Due to Trump, I thought American was on the brink of collapse. I thought China was poised for world domination. I thought we were living through an historical emergency. I no longer think any of these things is true. America will remain influential for decades to come, despite the rise of China, India, and Africa, and the overall reduction in "white" influence. China's problems are likely much more serious than America's, and we must never forget that it faces the constant threat of massive political revolution in a way that America, and the West as a whole, simply doesn't. Western cooperation and hegemony has massively intensified in the wake of the invasion of Ukraine. Fukuyama's "End of History" thesis is once again being taken seriously. Years later, with all the FUD of COVID having very much receded into history, my analysis of the world seems profoundly mistaken. Sure, the West is in decline, but that's due more to simple demographics and the inexorable march of economic globalisation than anything else.
According to the author, America is in what threatens to be a terminal decline. Trump is destroying what remains of its international legitimacy (in the post-Trump era, the US's reputation has rebounded; bouncing back so quickly from the reign of its most disruptive tyrant ever is proof that American institutions remain strong). Its democracy grows less and less free. Its allies are responding to Trump's inconstancy by becoming less liberal and more self-concerned. Authoritarian leaders in Europe are staging comebacks. Income inequality deepens, unemployment is on the rise, disinformation makes voters cynical and politicians more haughty and manipulative, R&D as a proportion of national budgets is decreasing, and the welfare state is being whittled away. The state of things is precipitous. We're falling apart.
And to top it all off, China openly threatens world domination while the West, distracted by internal affairs, offers little and poorly organized resistance. By the time we wake up to the severity of the threat of the West's decline and fall and China's rise and rise, we'll struggle even to accommodate the changes China throws our way, let alone throw down a challenge of our own.
Get ready for a brave new world. It's time to climb down from our pedestal and strap on our running shoes.
Addendum 3/12/22: I read this book in October 2020. At that time, the world was wreathed in the fog of COVID-induced fear, uncertainty, and doubt. In times of crisis, people try to impose order on the world by adopting extreme, black-and-white views. This is because dichotomous thinking makes things simple: there's one simple explanation for all the bad things in the world (Chinese takeover, New World Order Great Reset, Bill Gates's depopulation program) and one correspondingly simple way to fix it (war with China, refusing vaccines, mistrusting all elites). Some of the fearful stupidity that permeated the entire world in that historical moment also coloured this review. Due to Trump, I thought American was on the brink of collapse. I thought China was poised for world domination. I thought we were living through an historical emergency. I no longer think any of these things is true. America will remain influential for decades to come, despite the rise of China, India, and Africa, and the overall reduction in "white" influence. China's problems are likely much more serious than America's, and we must never forget that it faces the constant threat of massive political revolution in a way that America, and the West as a whole, simply doesn't. Western cooperation and hegemony has massively intensified in the wake of the invasion of Ukraine. Fukuyama's "End of History" thesis is once again being taken seriously. Years later, with all the FUD of COVID having very much receded into history, my analysis of the world seems profoundly mistaken. Sure, the West is in decline, but that's due more to simple demographics and the inexorable march of economic globalisation than anything else.
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