With the Covid-19 situation, I kept seeing many posts which were borderline conspiracy theories, some from friends or acquaintances who I generally admire and consider of average or above-average intelligence. This made me curious behind the psychology of conspiracy theories. I already some understanding of the topic given that I lightly touched upon the subject in my psychology degree, but I wanted to go a little bit more in-depth.
He defines conspiracy theories with 5 factors: pattern making, agency, coalitions, hostility, and continued secrecy. Almost any conspiracy theory you can think of, with minor exceptions, will fit this description. An interesting point that the book starts with is that conspiracy theories are not new. We associate them with the internet or at least the modern era, but they have existed forever.
For example, in the Middle ages large number of people died, in large part due to lack of medical and scientific understanding. This was often scapegoated to young women, who were believed to be witches and conspiring with the devil. Another common scapegoating was that Jewish people were causing epidemics. Not only are not new, but they also aren't on the rise either. While we may more easily be aware of them, its prevalence and belief on them has been more or less stable.
Conspiracy theories are caused by crises of some kind. Like terrorist attacks, natural disasters, wars, revolutions, epidemics, economic crisis, etc. The crises lead to increase attention and an attempt at sense-making. In turn, there are emotional and cognitive psychological mechanisms that get amplified during these situations.
The emotional aspect is fear and uncertainty (especially with a feeling of helplessness). They are the bread and butter of conspiracy theories. People look for patterns due to our minds being particularly primed for imminent threats. And given that false negatives are more costly than false positives, worse-case scenarios are assumed. Then there are also cognitive factors, with are biases that amplified the belief in conspiracies. Like the proportionality bias (important events seem to require important causes), self-interest bias (other people are often selfish and immoral), among others. Some other factors are also covered, like the affiliation with political extremism (both right and left), identity, in-group protection, agency detection, and randomness.
Something that is often misunderstood is that the cognitive processes behind conspiracy are not pathological. They are normal and function. They simply get amplified in a certain context and increases their error. Similarly, it's not easy to box who believes in conspiracy theories. They are incredibly widespread and affect all types of people imaginable.
The book was made by Dr. Jan-Willem van Prooijen, who is a researcher in the field, and was incredibly well written. It's quite short (about 100 pages), but touches all the key points and has a good amount of information. It is divided into 6 chapters, with further sub-sections. They have a very logical sequence and they're very succinct. Each chapter ends with a helpful summary.
I appreciated the author's emphasis that this does not mean that conspiracy theories cannot be true. They can, and in fact, he provides several examples where that is the case. However, that does not exclude the psychological mechanisms that lead people into believing them in the first place where evidence was at the time insufficient. Even if they happen to turn out to be accurate (although that's almost never the case), the psychology behind the initial belief remains.
When reading the introduction, I was a bit afraid of getting into some pseudoscience. I was not aware of the background of the author, and some of the descriptions sounded a bit too much like a psychoanalysis of conspiracy theories. But I was wrong. It is quite well supported by data, and numerous studies are referenced to support his claims.
Overall, I highly recommend the book. Especially given its length, it's a must-read if you are interested in the topic of conspiracy theories.