Soros on Soros is the culmination of George Soros’ life work. It touches on his childhood, his theory of reflexivity, his failed career as a philosopher, his successes and failures at the Quantum Fund, the psychology of running a fund, and his philanthropy. I found the beginning of the book excellent—reflexivity is a fascinating concept and Soros is honest, humble, and possesses an impressive intellect.
George Soros’ theory of reflexivity can be summed up in the following quote: “I believe that a thinking participant is in a very difficult position, because he is trying to understand a situation in which he is one of the actors.” He uses reflexivity to persuasively critique the theory of efficient markets, explain boom/bust processes well, and articulates trade ideas (Breaking the BOE) brilliantly.
Reflexivity is why forecasts are often wrong. Maybe the work underlying a forecast was fundamentally solid, but whenever you forecast an event, you affect the dynamic you are forecasting. If you don’t take your own affect into account, you will be wrong. When you are evaluating other people’s analysis (perhaps in investing/trading), you must take into account three levels of analysis:
1. The work they did and the factors they uncovered
2. The role their research may have played in changing these dynamics
3. The role you will play in changing these dynamics when you act on the research
Many errors occur when people only focus on step 1) and often blindly follow the work or recommendations of others (Ex: following sell side stock recommendations).
If the book stopped after Part 1 (Investing and Global Finance), it would have easily merited 5 Stars. However, Soros attempts to apply his theory of reflexivity beyond markets and into politics and philanthropy. The jump is rather complicated and I often disagreed with his logic here. I felt he strayed beyond his strengths and wound up hurting the overall book. The governing idea behind his philanthropy and politics is one of an “Open Society.” He tries to explain the theory of open societies several times (rarely clearly) and when he does, his philanthropy and politics often don’t seem to entirely match with his visions, appearing to contradict himself:
1. “Open society is based on the recognition that we all act on the basis of imperfect understanding. Nobody is in possession of the ultimate truth. Therefore, we need a critical mode of thinking; we need institutions and rules that allow people with different opinions and interests to live together in peace; we need a democratic form of government that ensures the orderly transfer of power; we need a market economy that provides feedback and allows mistakes to be corrected; we need to protect minorities and respect minority opinions. Above all, we need the rule of law.”
2. “I am a law-abiding citizen, but I recognize that there are regimes that need to be opposed rather than accepted. And in periods of regime change, the normal rules don't apply. One needs to adjust one's behavior to the changing circumstances.”
That being said, I do understand where his philosophy comes from. He is a “stateless statesman,” a man without a true country and so he feels he rises above the level of political consciousness most citizens reside. His life story is incredibly interesting and I especially enjoyed his frank admissions of his own psychological weaknesses. I found much of what he talked about relating to dealing with stress and emotions helpful. Despite being one of the most successful people of the modern era, he comes across quite humble and very likeable. He is far more gifted as a trader than a philanthropist/political philosopher and perhaps that is why he excelled in finance, but failed as a philosopher. Overall, I greatly enjoyed the book, but felt the sections on his political philosophy and philanthropy were a step-below the sections on his investing career, his philosophy on markets, and his admissions of his psychological weaknesses. Below are a few of my favorite quotes:
1. On the failure of competitive markets: “The prevailing wisdom is that markets are always right. I take the opposite position. I assume that markets are always wrong…My sense of insecurity is satisfied when I know what the flaw is. It doesn't make me discard the thesis. Rather, I can play it with greater confidence because I know what is wrong with it while the market does not.”
2. On having conviction: “The market always destroys the weak-that is, investors who don't have well-founded convictions. You need some convictions to avoid getting faked out, but having the courage of your convictions could get you wiped out if your convictions are false. So I prefer to take a stand only when I have well-founded convictions.”
3. Insecurity and intuition: “I am not a professional security analyst. I would rather call myself an insecurity analyst…I recognize that I may be wrong. This makes me insecure. My sense of insecurity security keeps me alert, always ready to correct my errors. I do this on two levels. On the abstract level, I have turned the belief in my own fallibility into the cornerstone of an elaborate philosophy. On a personal level, I am a very critical person who looks for defects in myself as well as in others. But, being so critical, I am also quite forgiving. I couldn't recognize my mistakes if I couldn't forgive myself. To others, being wrong is a source of shame; to me, recognizing my mistakes is a source of pride.”
4. On discipline: “When you are a serious risk taker, you need to be disciplined. The discipline that I used was a profound sense of insecurity, which helped to alert me to problems before they got out of hand. If I gave up that discipline, I would have to fall back on due diligence and other forms of routine and routine is not my strong point. I was afraid to admit my success because it might undermine my sense of insecurity. Once you take your success for granted, you let down your guard. When you are in trouble, you just sit back; you know you are successful and you will always get out of trouble somehow. That's when you have lost your ability to get out of trouble.”