Edge of Chaos

by Dambisa Moyo

A generation after the fall of the Berlin Wall, the world is once again on the edge of chaos. Demonstrations have broken out from Belgium to Brazil led by angry citizens demanding a greater say in their political and economic future, better education, heathcare and living standards. The bottom line of this outrage is the same; people are demanding their governments do more to improve their lives faster, something which policymakers are unable to deliver under conditions of anaemic growth. Rising income inequality and a stagnant economy are threats to both the developed and the developing world, and leaders can no longer afford to ignore this gathering storm.

In Edge of Chaos, Dambisa Moyo sets out the new political and economic challenges facing the world, and the specific, radical solutions needed to resolve these issues and reignite global growth. Dambisa enumerates the four headwinds of demographics, inequality, commodity scarcity and technological innovation that are driving social and economic unrest, and argues for a fundamental retooling of democratic capitalism to address current problems and deliver better outcomes in the future. In the twenty-first century, a crisis in one country can quickly become our own, and fragile economies produce a fragile international community. Edge of Chaos is a warning for advanced and emerging nations alike: we must reverse the dramatic erosion in growth, or face the consequences of a fragmented and unstable global future.

Genres: Economics, Politics, Nonfiction, History, Africa, Political Science, Social Science

320 pages, Kindle Edition

Published April 24, 2018

About the author

Dr. Dambisa Moyo is an international economist who writes on the macroeconomy and global affairs.

She is the author of the New York Times Bestsellers "Dead Aid: Why Aid Is Not Working and How There Is a Better Way for Africa", "How The West Was Lost: Fifty Years of Economic Folly And the Stark Choices Ahead" and "Winner Take All: China s Race for Resources and What It Means for the World".

Ms. Moyo was named by Time Magazine as one of the “100 Most Influential People in the World”, and was named to the World Economic Forum’s Young Global Leaders Forum. Her work regularly appears in economic and finance-related publications such as the Financial Times, the Economist Magazine and the Wall Street Journal.

She completed a doctorate in Economics at Oxford University and holds a Masters degree from Harvard University. She completed an undergraduate degree in Chemistry and an MBA in Finance at the American University in Washington D.C..

Reviews

[David Wineberg · Rating 2 out of 5]

Dambias Moyo is touted as a fresh and important new voice in economics. The Edge of Chaos, her analysis of the global economy and democracy, plus her ten recommendations to fix it all, does not affirm that reputation. It is superficial, naïve and unimpressive. On the other hand, if you know very little about the state of the world, it is a very helpful overview.

The book is chock full of statistics. Moyo summarizes every major economy with them. Then she keeps telling readers that it puts the countries involved on the edge of chaos, which is clearly not the case.

She writes about infrastructure in the USA putting the country on edge of chaos. I remember (and still have) a fat 1970 issue of Business Week saying the same thing. At the time, it would have taken an impossible $50 billion to fix the crumbling bridges, roads, ports, trains and airports that were sending the country to the edge of chaos. Today, the bill is a trillion, which interestingly is not an impossible number. And rather than all the many reasons she gives for that money being unavailable, the simple truth is if the USA hadn’t invaded Iraq for no reason, it would have all the money it needs today to fix all those things.

Moyo leaps from facts to conclusions with abandon. As I read, I kept thinking things like – but that’s not the reason…. this has nothing to do with that… correlation is not causation…. that’s not why this is happening… we’ve known the real reason for that for decades…

Globalization isn’t working at its optimum because it isn’t real globalization. Free trade is anything but free trade. Treaties are a thousand pages long, with carve-outs, exceptions and workarounds that make them a fraud. Globalization is shrinking under its own pointless baggage, not because it is a failing strategy.

Sadly, her answer to every economic situation is growth, the more the better. We can grow our way out of any problem. This is so grossly naïve and wrong, it should be coming Donald Trump, not Moyo.

Her prescriptions for saving democracy are similarly superficial, old hat, and impossible. A country that can’t escape the Electoral College is not about to implement weighted voting. In deploring the descent of voter participation, she does not account for the simple fact that voters are offered no quality choices. And she certainly has no scope to examine the fact the two party system prevents quality candidates from even bothering. They are much better off avoiding the swamp and influencing those who choose to be there. If citizens had to serve, if terms were unique, if representatives were elected by issue instead of party, things would be different. Capping expenditures, fining nonvoters and all the other usual patches she proposes will fix nothing.

And despite it all, we stumble on, reducing poverty, improving lives, and by the way, somehow avoiding chaos.

David Wineberg

[Ian Kemp · Rating 1 out of 5]

I feel like I just read a paper by a college freshman who hadn't bothered to read the prompt. Some of my feedback to the student would be.

1. Define your terms. What do you mean by Growth? You never define it at any point. Sometimes growth means just more wealth and sometimes it means more jobs. Sometimes both and sometimes neither. What do you mean by democracy? What is state-directed capitalism?
2. Use evidence. I would feel a need to underline everything she says we should do and ask what is her evidence? Longer terms in office will encourage longer-term thinking. Has this been shown anywhere? Does the US Senate tend to think better 'long-term' then the US house of representatives? Seems like an obvious experiment. Not addressed, it makes sense to her and therefore we should just accept it. Higher salaries will lead to better leaders. Really? Any evidence of that? Nope, ok, moving on.
3. Ask yourself, if you are contradicting yourself. Sometimes competitive elections are great and essential and other times they force elected officials to make short-term decisions. She consistently seeks a golden mean without telling us how to get there.

In the end, this book says the following reforms will help address the following problems. She shows nothing to show that in anyway shape or form other than she thinks it would. This book subtracts rather than adds to the sum total of human knowledge.

[Stetson · Rating 3 out of 5]

The books is written as if modern nations are in legitimate crisis. This is mystifying as one of the main subjects of the work, the USA, appears to be a stable hegemon in a world order characterized mostly by stasis or skirmishes and desolation in peripheral, no longer strategic regions. There is of course one potential threat that remains, China, but if China were to initiate on such a front it would seem to stand to lose the most. Subsequently, it is difficult to envision likely scenarios where the arrangement of world power would change substantially in the near-term.

However, Moyo's focus is very much on the long-term. She is concerned with the inability of Western liberal democracies to politically plan for decades and decades into the future. She raises some important issues, but it is unclear if we actually have good long-term solutions. Additionally, sometimes her recommendation appear in conflict with each other. I appreciate her concern for driving economic growth and creating effective governing institutions. Most of her proposals seem unlikely to achieve such things. Additionally, countries like China have been implementing some of the things she recommends and perhaps for a brief period it really benefitted China, but it appears that progress has slowed or is in peril.

Without doing a really deep accounting for each of her diagnoses and proposals it is hard to grade this book in brief for potential readers. I've tried to highlights some general strengths and weaknesses. I think the work is likely guilty of something that many academics and technocrats fall prey to (i.e. overconfidence about their prognostic capabilities and the purported effects of current and future policy). I think this is a fine read paired with others that provide alternative perspectives on similar issues or examine specific issue raised in greater detail or over historical timelines. I think this work also underscores the remaining gaps in our macroeconomics. All our theories have significant limitations and these limitations will continue to bedevil policy work that aims to remedy current or future challenges.

[Noorilhuda]

Moyo’s thesis is that the world’s economy is in a downward spiral, is not working for people of nation-states, countries and politicians are responding to recession, poverty and debt by stooping to knee-jerk, populist, short-term, reactionary policies (by making protectionist laws aimed at anti-immigration / anti-globalisation, rejecting bilateral trade deals or by taking more foreign aid), and to stop all of it, the democratic project needs to be overhauled.

To do this, her 10-point agenda, as given in paragraph-format in Chapter Seven (‘Blueprint for a New Democracy’), is as follows:

The quantity and quality of voters needs to be increased: Voting in elections should be made mandatory. Voter education should be compulsory. Voters should have aptitude / knowledge-based tests to check how informed they are of the problems / issues that need to be looked into for progress. The result will make a tier / hierarchy of voters: qualified, unqualified, highly-qualified. Higher marks / points should be reserved for the voting behavior of those more educated (i.e. lawyers, doctors, teacher) i.e. more ‘weight’ should be given to the vote of a ‘professionally qualified person’ or level of education or level of employment status or the one who scores higher in the civics test, than the rest, because poor quality of voters will keep selecting leaders of lower potential or ‘an administration that implements poor policies that damage economic growth’. Moyo knows that this view may be seen as discriminatory and may not be fool-proof but she believes it’s the best way forward for better economic future of each democratic country. She says, ‘There is a direct link between the individuals voters elect and the economic decisions that elected officials make......In a liberal democratic system, at the heart of virtually all voting decisions are economic choices. While it is true that purely social questions make their way onto the ballot, even many issues that are viewed mostly through the lens of social policy, such as health care or immigration, end up having an economic impact. Economic choices are at the core of politics.’

Secondly, she proposes a list of changes to the elected government itself to increase its quality: Minimum standards should be installed for public office holders beyond their age and political or academic experience, i.e. those with ‘real-world experience are more likely to understand the sorts of policies that are needed in a modern economy than those conditioned on a diet of polls and political tactics.' Representatives should be elected for longer terms/ periods (e.g. 6-8 years) so that economic policies generated by one can continue without disruption, just like in a normal business cycle, and to match ‘political attention spans to longer-term economic challenges.' She says, ‘At its core, mature liberal democracy reflects a contract between governments and its citizens. In the most efficient democracies, governments provide a suite of public goods to their voters in return for tax revenue. If an incumbent officeholder fails to deliver on their promise to help effectively oversee the government’s provision of public goods, they are voted out of office.....frequent elections can incentivize officeholders to be too responsive to voters today at the expense of making the wisest decisions for the long-term health of the economy.’ The pay scales of the representatives need to be increased to match the private sector so that better quality / learned/ technical people can come into politics. Bonuses / deferred pay packages should be given on jobs well done - especially if a policy initiative brings fruition after 6 years / country performs well on key development goals or long-term, broader achievements. The terms of office-holders need to be capped to term limits. Campaign funding should be restricted strictly. Basically, Moyo is suggesting that technocrats be elected to office for better running of governance because they have more experience dealing with real-life public policy and are trained, and will take a hard-nosed approach than the populist politician who gives a volley of feel-good short-term objectives that don’t take the country forward.

Moyo believes that since the people in the system will try to protect the system, hence the change / reform in democratic project can only occur if retired politicians, think tanks, non-partisan organizations, and the private sector take the lead. She gives examples of countries where each of these methods is already-in place though none in the same country (e.g. Singapore's PM has an annual salary in millions; China abides by rule of law for all businesses; Peru, Mexico and France, etc. have compulsory voting; France and other countries have stringent anti-lobbying campaign funding laws, etc.)

My problem with the thesis is that she is assuming that all the illiterate, semi-literate individuals, or those from lower or middle economic classes, or those not residing in cities, make unwise / unintelligent choices as voters and are incapable of understanding the complexities of what ails them or knowing how to fix it. I have seen educated, studied-in-good-university, holding important jobs people, steeped in bias and prejudice and contempt against 'the lesser beings' and functioning as know-it-alls with little in common with local population, with no cognizance or empathy of their problems. They don't even live in the same areas / communities/ housing societies. Usually, no one other than an accountant or an auditor understands a financial report, and not even the most educated or well-read banker would agree on an economic solution with another. In my country, one finance minister-later PM kept touting the percentages of economic growth during the tenure of a military government. All the percentages were nowhere to be seen, once that government (and that minister) went into thin air. The economy, running on donor-money and grossly inflated finance reports, was back where it was a decade ago or worse for wear. So governments can fool voters and media by quoting numbers which nobody understands nor sees. I think what is required is greater transparency, a system that delivers the goods and services to the local people / ordinary citizens and greater grassroot governance where a local administration is able to put money in all that really ails that community (whether its lack of proper road, or transport system in far-flung areas or lack of water and sanitation in villages) or at least is given authority and funds to fix local issues itself as opposed to federal government cherry-picking politically-rich constituencies; and greater accountability of federal / provincial governments in what they chose to focus on, on national / international level through referendums and frequent polls; Tax reforms and land reforms immediately diminish the poverty profile of the people; And super-rich / industrialist / business / feudal class people should be asked to fund large charity network whereby various developmental landmarks get completed in each of their areas, for e.g. doctor with fully-equipped clinic and dispensary in ever village of a country, books and teachers being sent to towns, tube wells and water storage units being erected and roads being built, etc. - to remove dependence on 'aid' or 'donation' or 'loan'. I believe when you believe and trust in the people, people also try to do good and deliver, especially local, illiterate and unrefined people subtracted from Moyo's book! Grow local, eat local. Remove plastic, remove dependence on oil, focus on the strengths of the country's labor class: whether it is textiles, or port or minerals or whatever. Give the responsibility to the locals and have experts as advisors for them to develop their ability to handle and run the mines or factory or shipping yard. This will ensure an ecosystem of more local colleges, local hospitals, local roads, local electricity and gas poles, local managers and local workers. They will protect the project because they have a direct stake and direct benefit from it and they know it. No one is born great. It's a learnt trait. So focussing on 'voter quality' and 'representative quality' is a false premise, another one of those golden roads that go round in circles, keeping majority back. Granted, it may be tough for a common man or woman to understand the logistics of an international agreement or Gross Domestic Product, but they usually do not care either because these rarely have an impact on their daily lives: since jobs, profits, infrastructure and development remains in the control of chosen few elitists who are also the primary beneficiary of any accord. A government, whether elected or selected, should focus on engaging with and giving rights to the local stakeholders more as opposed to diminishing their say even further. People usually are pretty vocal about what they want, unless there are repercussions.

[Venky · Rating 4 out of 5]

As historian John Dunn has noted “with some very minor exceptions, the word “democracy” has come to symbolise the only legitimate political system in most languages.” However, democracy as is being practiced the world over today, suffers from flaws that are significant and shortcomings that are material. Rising income inequality, continuing gender disparity, appalling lack of opportunities, a burgeoning accumulation of housing and student loans have resulted in turmoil and tumult, causes that culminated in direct consequences such as the election of Donald Trump and Brexit.

The inadequacies of democracies have also resulted in a serious exploration and embrace of alternative forms of governance such as the one practiced by China. As Rana Mitter recently wrote in a riveting article titled, ‘The Mystery of China’s eagerness to own the term Democracy’, “China is now in position to redefine democracy for the region, taking ownership and reshaping the term in its own, more authoritarian image.”

The Zambian-born international economist and author, Dambisa Moyo seems to share the same concern about the future of democracy. In her latest book, “Edge of Chaos: Why Democracy Is Failing to Deliver Economic Growth—and How to Fix It”, she bemoans the prevalence of what she terms ‘short-termism’ and ‘political myopia’, facets that emphasise more on the short term thereby at the cost of the longer term, and effectively, the future. “Political myopia is the central obstacle on the path of growth in advanced economies,” she emphasises. Cautioning her readers on the ill effects of ‘short termism’, Moyo states, “a less politicized and more long-term-focused education policy would help circumvent the problem in which the United States ranks among the highest in terms of education spending per capita but in some respects is among the worst in education outcomes when compared against its advanced country peers.”

Moyo identifies 7 factors, or what she terms ‘headwinds’ that hamper growth. These headwinds range from aging societies to limited natural resources. She also reserves her strongest railings for a disturbing rise in the implementation of protectionism. Advocating the rise of protectionism as a complementarity to the devastating financial crisis, Moyo argues that protectionism is nothing but a certain path to perdition.

So is there a way out of this seemingly complex morass? Can democratic capitalism reinvent itself? Towards achieving this objective, Moyo offers ten solutions that are – to put it mildly – radical. Divesting monetary influence from politics, to an astonishing proposal of administering literacy and civics tests on would-be voters, introducing a ‘weighting vote’ system, whereby based on certain pre-determined criteria, votes would carry weightages to longer terms for elected officials together with term limits, reducing gerrymandering and making voting mandatory. These solutions although not easy to either implement or administer needs to see the light of the day sooner rather than later. For as Moyo reiterates, if we are not going to be bold enough to bite the bullet now, it may be too late. As she emphasizes,” overwhelming evidence shows that economic growth is a prerequisite for democracy, not the other way around.”

These prescriptions, especially those relating to imposing restrictions on voting and even curtailing the right to vote might unleash expected opposition and populist backlashes. How would there be a rational division of the voting populace into most credible, credible and less credible voters? Would academic qualifications trump common sense? Would intellectual obstinacy prevail over logical illiteracy? Would quantum physics professors be tagged “most qualified” but Pilates instructors deemed “just about qualified”? To her credit, Moyo herself admits that this proposition is more than just a timid ruffling of angry feather. Weighted voting “will no doubt be seen as jarring and antithetical to the principles of democracy,” she concedes. Yet “it reduces the influence of those most likely to be apathetic or disengaged from public policy debates and thus to make poor electoral choices.”

Interestingly at the end of her book, Moyo sets out an appendix, depicting how 14 leading countries rank in terms of her vision for transforming and reinventing democracy. While Mexico ranks at the top (having maxed five of Moyo’s milestones), Germany, ranks at the bottom of the heap. Now that is something to keep her readers scratching their heads if not completely tearing out their hair!
Whether we are in agreement with the problems and proposals posited by Moyo, there is no denying that we are inhabiting some troubled times. As per a report issued by Freedom House, an independent watch dog organisation dedicated to the expansion of freedom and democracy around the world, democracy is facing significant rumbles having the potential to transform into a full-blown crisis. Consider the following excerpts from the report issued in 2018:

•Democracy faced its most serious crisis in decades in 2017 as its basic tenets—including guarantees of free and fair elections, the rights of minorities, freedom of the press, and the rule of law—came under attack around the world;

•Seventy-one countries suffered net declines in political rights and civil liberties, with only 35 registering gains. This marked the 12th consecutive year of decline in global freedom;

•The United States retreated from its traditional role as both a champion and an exemplar of democracy amid an accelerating decline in American political rights and civil liberties;

•Over the period since the 12-year global slide began in 2006, 113 countries have seen a net decline, and only 62 have experienced a net improvement

It is time that this alarming trend is reversed and credit ought to be given to Moyo for at least coming out with concrete measures and structural reforms to fire the first shot towards redemption.

[Navneet Bhushan · Rating 4 out of 5]

Democracy - the current forms of governance in the world is facing key challenges in fulfilling the economic growth and fulfilling the lofty ideals of a peaceful and prosperous world.

The challenges of democracy along with the new found prescriptions of anti or de globalisation and letting go by US and west to underwrite the policy of rule based world along with the rise of centralized capitalism is taking the world to the edge of chaos. The book prescribes 10 reforms needed for democracy and also highlights key democracies that are taking up some of those reforms in the democracy practiced. Mexico with max 5 out of 10 prescribed reforms comes out the most evolving democracy as per the book.

INDIA has almost no democratic reform from the 10 given and that is a bit of a worry for me as an Indian reader.

Irrespective of the validation and the theoretical or practical value of the prescribed reforms for evolutionary democracy, the fact that the author has stuck out her neck and called the elephant in the room - the failing democratic systems - is commendable for me.

It does provide the Base on which potential war avoidance features can be built into the democracy through evolving the processes and policies.

The edge of chaos is an interesting proposal and must be read for evolving and thinking beyond the current shape of governance of the world.

[John Nwanze · Rating 5 out of 5]

She writes like a globalist, and would have wanted her to focus a bit more on the challenges faced by developing countries especially Africa

[Greg · Rating 4 out of 5]

Much of Ms. Moyo’s argument is closely related to, but much less focused on the details of the hows and whys, of the book I recently reviewed by Robert Kuttner, Can Democracy Survive Global Capitalism? I mention this as a point of information and not as a criticism.

Introduction
Like Kuttner, she says that “all of this blog all unrest…[is] united by a common thread: average citizens expressing anger at the importance and corruption of the ruling, political elites. It is a rebuke of political decisions to embrace trade and internationalism, policies that did not in fact ‘lift all boats’ as the proponents of globalization promised, but actually harmed the livelihoods of so many. And it is a rebuke of government’s failure to create economic growth.” (P. xiii)

“The confluence of these factors has contributed to the weakening of social cohesion (with revising rates of suicidal, drug use, divorce rates, and violence in Middle America), culminating in the erosion of the middle class. It is the disaffected middle class that is at the heart of the rebellion against the political establishment in the United States and beyond….
“In rich countries as well as poor, people want change. They demand ;Olivier that will improve their lives: better education, improved health care, more jobs — and quickly…. (P. xvi)
“Growth is imperative for fulfilling human demands and improving lives. Economically, growth promises to reduce poverty and raise living standards, politically, growth is the sine qua non for free markets, free people, and the rule of law; individually, growth is essential to allowing people to maximize their potential. (Pp. xvi)

“Three drivers of growth — capital, labor, and productivity — have eroded under unprecedented headwinds. (P. xvi)

“[As a consequence] alternative models, such as authoritarianism, state capitalism, and illiberal democracies, have proliferated, offering formidable challenges to liberal democratic capitalism’s model of achieving growth. Meanwhile, liberal democratic capitalism itself has become weak, corrupt, and oblivious to its own ailments. (P. xviii)
“The defining challenge of our time is to create solid and sustained economic growth that continues to meaningfully improve people’s lives. (P. six)

“Edge of Chaos” argues that liberal democracies of the sort prevalent in the West simply cannot deliver this growth without substantial reform. Without fundamental changes, democratic politicians will struggle to address the numerous headwinds the global economy faces today…. Ultimately, the myriad economic challenges are a manifestation of a corrosive problem in the democratic political process.
“This book proposes ten far-reaching reforms to democracy that are designed to combat this myopia, overcome the headwinds challenging the global economy, and galvanize economic growth.” (P. xx)

“Above all, policy makers must face up to the facts of the twenty-first century. In an interconnected world of anemic growth, other countries’ rises will become our crises, whether they take the form of terrorism, income inequality, refugees, the resurgence of infectious diseases, or illegal immigration and governments will growth ever more fragmented and weak, further undermining an already fragile international community. For Americans, and policy makers in the world at large, protectionism and isolationism are no remedy.” (P. xvi)

She then proposes ten specific reforms to improve policy-making, spread economic gains much more equitably, and contribute to more informed voters and a more equality-based system by which to select leaders and establish political priorities that will serve the mass of citizens rather than just a few.


Ms. Moyo’s observations on the weaknesses and harms of the current political and economic system are valid and “right on,” but several of her proposed reforms are either politically impossible, anti-democratic, or dangerous.

For example, in her argument for the desperate need for more highly informed voters — something with which I do not disagree — she suggests that it might be desirable to subject all voters to some kind of civics’ knowledge test, which would tempt certain you-know-which states to devise ones that discriminated against the poor, less literate, the young, and minorities.

She also touches — glancingly — on the important role that a free press plays in a functioning democracy, but discusses neither the severe plight of newspapers but also the explosion of “sources of information” that are deliberately skewing information and doing nothing to ensure a balanced, or more 360 degree view of subject matter or key personnel.

Given the rise of populist nationalist demagogues around the world, including in the US, the current state of “the media” — which any more has to include social media — is too often just a “hot box” that stirs and heats up emotions without informing or debunking fraud or lies.

We are in an alarming muddle, to which Ms. Moyo sheds some light but for which her solutions, in my opinion, often fall short.

[Michael Huang]

Some reasonable sounding conjectures in explaining why democracy hasn't been delivering growth to some people: short-term thinking of politicians, politicians lack the talent, etc. But the "solutions" offered are quite hand-waving. Take campaign financing for example. Every pundit (and her cousin) has pointed out/repeated the fact that if we reform campaign financing and we can get moneyed interest out of politics and the country will get better. First of all, that may or may not be true. Secondly, nobody has ever figured out how to do campaign financing -- what does the law look like exactly; and where do you get the votes to pass a law. The book basically repeats that mantra.

[Munish · Rating 4 out of 5]

A warning bell has been rung. Upto us to act in time to protect the global economy and the interest of future generations

[Wendelle]

Whether you agree or not with the grand, sweeping manner or substance of her writing, Dambisa Moyo is a formidable thinker of the first order (her Oxford Phd says so), and she is keen to muster an army of statistics in presenting her thinking. I urge you to read this book and form your own opinions afterwards. The first few chapters present a summary of current economic conditions that few people would challenge. The aftermath presents a big-picture set of proposals that also bears incisive reading.

This book is dense with statistics and conclusions. For instance one throwaway comment I found of Dambisa's urged the conclusion of a study that fledgling democracies can only prosper if there is a robust middle class that can hold the government accountable, otherwise people quickly reject political freedoms in favor of authoritarian or nationalist political parties that promise jobs and stable incomes. This may seem self-evident in hindsight, but if the US government had known about that nugget of insight before they overthrew the Iraqi government to practice nation-building, they could have saved themselves trillions of dollars.

[Puwa · Rating 5 out of 5]

The author Dambisa Moyo arose a question on her own title of the book “Why democracy is failing to deliver economic growth…”, my answer is a paradox but true, democracy is NOT for the family, by the family, of the family. The author carefully turns the attention of the reader on the nation’s growth, the economic growth engine trolls with main three wheels, capital is the front wheel of the engine that calculates the difference between the deficits and debts, labor and productivity are very vital and important two wheels which are pushing the economy engine from the back in order to measure the quality and quantity and other factors that affect growth innovation, technology, political system, law, and regulation respectively. The author deeply addresses the global poverty issues with example countries with facts and figures. Extreme poverty in mighty America, weak of liberal democratic capitalism, international loans decreased 9 percent imposed by G20 from 2014-16, democratic capitalism countries (Lee Kuan Yew’s Singapore) liberated from poverty.

Economic growth is a revolution, the end of apartheid South Africa has changed profoundly headed by the Dark Sun of South Africa Nelson Mandela with the three-word mantra “Jobs, peace, and freedom”. As a reader, my critique also is that OECD counties' annual growth rate is unstable due to the 2008 financial crisis and the 2019 great pandemic crisis even though limited growth unevenly across the population in stagnation of social, health, environmental, and political issues in the absence of growth. The K shape yielded in the great lockdown in 2020 as a result of a concomitant rise of more than 50 percent poor are job losses, wage cuts, and reductions in workers compensation and social benefits. The author clearly highlighted the hyperinflation with the example of Germany’s reparation bill from World War i and also she showcased different national wealth calculations of renowned economists William Petty and Simon Kuznets.

Dutch Disease and Sri Lankan Disease

The concept describes an economic phenomenon where the rapid development of one sector of the economy. The rich countries export their resources such as oil and gas to the rest of the world, which causes the exchange rate of their currency to appreciate significantly, this turns and affects other sectors in the country by discouraging their exports. Lack of foreign reserves in Sri Lanka severely affected the entire system of the economy, commodity price and cost of living turned skyrocket, scarcity for domestic gas, the public waiting on the queue for hours and days to purchase gas cylinder at any rate, many hotels are closed due to the domestic gas scarcity and on the other hand cooked food prices are increased, and the rising currency value leading to a drop in exports and a loss of jobs both domestically and other countries.

The forefront of economic growth is the progress of globalization and global trade in goods and services. I propose the author's comment about future economic war begins from the scarcity of water even though the world surrender 71 percent in water, however, the utilization of technology will resolve this issue example China and Saudi Arab utilizing more money for water resource management projects in their GDP. Israel agriculture sector is in top-notch desalination project devotes the harvest triple time in one crop. The industrial sector is the main engine of the GDP, the infrastructure is most essential for the industrial sector especially energy independent, most the countries fully utilized their hydraulic power but the needs have increased day by day, therefore, the demand increased in the global market, therefore many countries invest more money for renewable energy project with the PPP manner to fulfill the public utility scarcity, example Tesla’s R&D of driverless automobile with solar energy, Israel’s solar park project for industrial sectors. Virtual water utilization is the biggest threat for both the agriculture and industrial sectors, France stopped cropping orange because it consumes 25 liters of water for producing one orange and the foreign-invested automobile industry was shut down in South India and the local government considered it’s natural resource exploitation by outsiders, it consumes 100,000 liters of water for manufacturing one car. Idea and technology only can bring down the shortages and supply produce to the market for balancing the demand. The digital economy is another important milestone of the progress of economic growth, but no country can survive with a 100 percent digital economy and marginally it needs a direct cash economy also and automation and digital technology new risk of cyber terrorism and bioterrorism that could hamper economic growth.

In the approach of the international framework, the human capital migration, developed counties immigration policies and decisions based on a point system which grants weights to academic, professional experience, and so forth contributing dramatically of economic growth for counties like Canada, Australia, and the USA, on the other hand, unemployment factor increases suicide rate, and therefore the term globalization bubble on the air as my point of view. Democracy is the fundamental right of every global citizen not just a discussion, “I want to live in a country where the law is not just a word in the dictionary, where people are free to tell that they think, to do what they want, to go where they dream” said Kateryna (Pp.131).

In my conclusion the author’s work is invaluable and rented an intellectual source to the world, the author’s effort for finding information from various sources and articulated in her own view is immense for mankind. If any country in the world fails to practice democracy and abuse power in the form of authoritarianism then it leads to a dangerous grave and unable to provide even basic needs such as education, good health care, social security, and infrastructure developments and the country automatically surrender to capitalist feet. Thank you very much to my colleague/friend Yasodhara Kapuge for moving me to the edge.

[Maria · Rating 3 out of 5]

If you have studied Economics before, Moyo's book will not seem too convoluted with statistics and other data. It may be harder to follow and see how they tie into her arguments if this is not a genre you read often. I personally enjoyed her writing, but some of her arguments seemed too radical and far-fetched. However, she does admit that some of her points are radical and might be subject to criticism especially by political scientists. I am sure that her arguments will spark a debate about electoral reform and democracy in general which was her main goal. However, I think many of her proposed solutions would only work in an ideal world, which unfortunately is not the one we live in. Government policy that works in countries like Liechtenstein and Belgium will not necessarily work in the US or in the rest of the world.

[Feng Ouyang · Rating 2 out of 5]

“Edge of Chaos” addresses a very portent issue at present: the challenges to democracy and the ways to meet them. The author argues that: 1) Economic growth is essential to stability and well-being. 2) We currently face unprecedented obstacles to economic growth, and our democratic system is not doing a good job dealing with them. The key reason is the myopic nature of elections and policy making. 3) to survive the challenges, we must fundamentally reform our democratic systems. These theses are not well-justified and well-supported by evidence and reasoning. The book is more of an incoherent collection of thoughts than well-thought policy advocacy.

The author first argues that economic growth is essential in delivering well-being. This is a questionable statement and far from the current consensus. A great majority of human history is in the low-growth era until the advent of the industrial revolution. However, subjective human happiness and societal stability show little correlation with economic growth. Currently, we are experiencing a material abundance, and many thought leaders question the notion that material wealth is a key to happiness. That is why social metrics about the environment, equality, freedom, etc., are proposed as alternatives to GDP to measure social progress. By focusing on economic growth alone, the book provides a very limited, even misguided, view of optimizing social institutions.

The author then lists a number of “headwinds” against economic growth. Some are unrelated to politics, such as demographic changes, automation, etc. However, the author seems to focus on one factor: the rolling back of globalization. According to the author, globalization, meaning the free flow of knowledge, capital, products, and labor (immigration) across national borders, is undoubtedly good. The current resentment against globalization is primarily political, stemming from those who suffer in the process. Instead of rolling back globalization, we should seek a more equitable distribution system to compensate the “losers” and achieve Pareto optimality (my words). We should further expand globalization to reap more benefits to compensate for those suffering from it. However, the author completely ignored another critical challenge of globalization: the lack of uniform rules and government. Much of the angst against Chinese trade is not that it made some in the West worse (it was ten years ago but less so now). Instead, people do not trust the Chinese to respect intellectual property rights, protect private ownership, and render fair justice in business disputes. They also worry that the Chinese government will use their gain in international trade to advance their ideology and national dominance. In comparison, India takes away just as many jobs from the U.S. as China does, if not more. However, trade issues with India are entirely different from those with China. The discussion on globalization shows another critical weakness of the book. The author seems to assume that the solution is clear and indisputable (in this case, we should keep and increase the freedom of international trade and cooperation). The only question is how to implement the decisions. However, we are far from consensus on many of the important issues. We need a dynamic and engaging political process to reach agreements before implementing them.

Lastly, the author proposed several reforms to enable democratic systems to make and implement decisions better. Most of them address “short-termism.” They include increasing the length of election cycles, making policies and laws binding to future decisions, etc. To improve the quality of decisions, the author also proposes mandatory voting (or a weaker form: incentive for voting) and granting more voting weights to better “qualified” voters based on education, profession, or civic test scores. A commonality of these ideas is that democracy is a tool for better governing, which, in turn, aims to increase economic growth. That is why the author views authoritarian governments such as China’s with envy for their efficiency in decision-making and implementation. However, democracy is not just a governing tool but a fundamental ideal. We agree that democracy has low efficiency. That is why most companies do not run by a democratic system. Even modern governments reserve only the most impactful decisions to their democratic bodies and leave the rest to professional bureaucrats. Without an understanding of the democratic ideal, its roots and implications, and its place in the post-modern world, the author is not in a good position to discuss the profound reforms he proposed.

The book is long and broad-reaching. However, it lacks coherence, and it is unclear how the various topics and arguments are tied together. For example, how does a more long-term-viewing government support expansion of globalization? By ignoring the complaints from the “losers” because you don’t need their votes next year? How can you build a democratic system that is even more “stable” than the Chinese authoritarian system that you admire? How would a wise and practical democratic government deal with population aging and automation? It seems to me that the author uses the book to boost his credibility in political discussion (albeit unsuccessfully) in preparation for the last part, which is the policy proposal. The book has a catching title and introduction. Unfortunately, it makes a disappointing delivery.

[Jesse Valente · Rating 4 out of 5]

A good overview of the current global growth predicament. While I agree with some of her prescriptions for remedying our current political situation (weighting votes based on voter education, yes please!), many of them (voter education requirements) are non-starters in this post-factual world.

[Tõnu Vahtra · Rating 3 out of 5]

During summer 2020 I attended Virtual Nordic Business Forum where Dambisa Moyo summarized this book and since I was interested in the topic in the light of COVID19 response I added the book to my reading list. As mentioned in the other reviews the author gives a detailed overview of the state of democracy on global level and the issues that we are facing with it, this would be the stronger side of the book. The 10 recommendations did not feel that convincing or well argumented, I did not agree with several recommendations as they might have other negative side-effects besides the expected positive result and some are just not realistic.

“It could be argued that one of democracy’s greatest weaknesses is the ability to reform itself. Reform of democracy must, however, be at the heart of a successful plan to improve economic growth and global prosperity. So far this chapter has detailed how the democratic system inherently contains incentives for policymakers to implement bad policy choices that undermine long-term economic success. Nevertheless, as we seek solutions to remedy democracy’s failings, we should acknowledge that politicians in a liberal democracy need not be malicious or even inept to fall prey to short-term thinking. They are wholly rational actors—responding to voters, succumbing to media pressure, and battling to stay in office, even if it means they do so at the expense of the economy’s longer-term success. When democracy works, it delivers economic growth and fundamental freedoms in a way that no other system can. And when it fails, it is rarely, if ever, replaced by a system that can do a better job of delivering for its population. Therefore, creating growth requires that we preserve democratic capitalism’s core strengths—freedom, efficient markets, transparency, and correctly constructed incentives—and reform its weaknesses. Something must be done to remedy the political class’s severe case of myopia, correcting the mismatch between long-term economic challenges and election cycles, safeguarding independent economic choices from political pressures, and eliminating dysfunction and gridlock.”

“One needed reform, and the eighth proposal in my ten-point blueprint, is to address declining voter participation by making voting mandatory. Established democracies, according to the International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance, have seen “a slow but steady decline in turnout since the 1970s.”8 In November 2014, only 36 percent of eligible voters in the United States cast a vote—the lowest turnout in more than seventy years. And while estimates show more than 58 percent of eligible voters voted in the 2016 US presidential election, turnout was down from 2008 (when it was 62 percent). Since 1900, the percentage of voters voting in US presidential elections has scarcely gone above 60 percent. Many of the world’s countries whose turnout rates are highest—including Australia, Singapore, Belgium, and Liechtenstein, where the 93 percent turnout rate is the highest in Western Europe—enforce compulsory voting laws. As of August 2016, of the thirty-five member states of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), five had forms of compulsory voting. In those countries, turnout rates were near 100 percent. There are more than twenty countries where voting is compulsory, including Australia, Belgium, Bolivia, Brazil, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Egypt, Mexico, Peru, and Singapore. In Australia, voter turnout is usually around 90 percent. A more direct comparison within the European Union member states reveals remarkable turnouts from states where voting is mandatory, with 89.6 percent in Belgium and 85.6 percent in Luxembourg. For the sake of comparison, voter turnout was only 42.4 percent in France, 43.8 percent in Spain, and a mere 35.6 percent in the United Kingdom.9 Most often, compulsory voting is enforced through fines on those who don’t vote. Typically these fines are relatively small; in Australia it is AUD 20 the first time you don’t vote and have no good reason, and AUD 50 afterward, while it ranges from 10 to 20 pesos in Argentina.10 Many times, the penalty amounts to little more than a symbolic slap on the wrist.”

[Miebara Jato · Rating 4 out of 5]

In the summer of 1989, the political scientist, Francis Fukuyama, published his highly cited article, The End of History (which was later developed into a book with the same title), with the core thesis or argument that liberal democracy as a system of government had defeated rival ideologies like Fascism, hereditary monarchy, and mostly communism, and spread throughout the world. Until recently, Fukuyama's utterly bold conclusion was accurate.

Fukuyama wrote his article at a time events were fast unravelling and the geopolitical tectonic were shifting. The Soviet Union was crumbling. The fall of the Berlin Wall was the nail in the coffin. When the Cold War ended, there was no longer any dispute that free-market democracy had triumph over communism.

The victory of liberal democracy which the United States most represent became a system many countries mimicked. These countries modelled their economies and politics according to what's obtainable in the US. Capitalist democracy was viewed as 'the path to economic prosperity and peace for their citizens.'

Several years after the fall of the Berlin Wall and the end of the Cold War, democracy flourished and spread across the world. Free market capitalism and liberal democracy became the undisputable path toward prosperity.

But recent events across the globe shows deep dissatisfaction with the establishment and by extension democracy itself. UK electorate voted to leave the EU. Voters in the US elected Donald Trump, a political neophyte and outsider, as president in 2016. Illiberal democracy is on the increase: Poland, with Russia, Turkey,

In this book, Dambisa Moyo, Harvard trained economist, compellingly argues for why democracy had failed to live up to its expectations, and now faces growing resentment. Backed with abundant statistics, Moyo analysed the current perils of representative democracy and offered blueprints on how to remedy it.

In rich and poor countries, as Dr Moyo asserts, people want to change. They demand policies that will improve their lives: better education, improved health care, more jobs—and quickly. "But Danger signs abound" she posits, "that policymakers are no longer able to deliver strong and sustainable growth—at least not under current political and economic thinking."

According to Moyo, politicians short-term thinking, and lack the talent is behind market capitalist democracy's failure to deliver growth to all. Moyo cited several headwinds including population growth, automation, and climate change, as the factor debilitating against market capitalism ability to deliver growth for all.

The author viewer that authoritarianism, state capitalism, and illiberal democracies have proliferated, offering formidable challenges to liberal democratic capitalism’s model of achieving growth. "Meanwhile, liberal democratic capitalism" she argues, "has become weak, corrupt, and oblivious to its own ailments." According to Moyo, democracy has failed to deliver growth because, among others, politicians indulge in short-term thinking, and lacks talents.

As democracy unravels and it's inadequacies increasingly becomes clearer, more and more citizens believe it need not be the answer. Many prefer the economic and political approach of China, a model of state capitalism in which the state steers production and the economy.

Yes, China's unparalleled economic growth and quick execution of infrastructural projects are tempting, but Moyo admonished authoritarianism does not offer long-term sustainability. Capitalist democracy, she argues, remains the best economic and political system that can deliver long-term goals. All that needs to be done, according to Moyo, is to implement reforms that can make democracy work for all. The author offered some blueprints to remedy democracy, but they are more or less hand waving options.

It's a recommended read for all political leaders.

[Kanav · Rating 5 out of 5]

Economist Dambisa Moyo takes a bold step in her book, "Edge of Chaos," proposing a radical 10-point plan to revitalize democracy and ensure long-term economic growth on a global scale.

Moyo argues convincingly that short-termism has crippled progress. She masterfully uses the economic headwinds described in Chapter 3 as a springboard to explore how liberal democracy and free-market capitalism, despite their historical successes in lifting millions out of poverty and expanding rights, are struggling to adapt to the needs of our 21st-century global economy. Technological advancements have left many underemployed, regional disparities are widening, and income inequality has reached an all-time high. Most concerning is the erosion of public trust in democratic institutions and leaders.

Moyo's solutions are refreshingly unorthodox. She advocates for a more educated electorate to ensure informed voting, and proposes aligning political cycles with economic cycles to promote long-term policymaking. But her most provocative suggestion lies in dismantling the current system of partisan party politics. She envisions a system that transcends ideology, prioritizing long-term economic growth over rigidly partisan political agendas. This concept, she argues, could be applied across the political spectrum in liberal democracies around the world. Moyo's vision is one where parties collaborate to find solutions that foster both economic well-being and social progress for all.

The book acknowledges potential criticisms of her proposals, which adds depth and encourages thoughtful debate. Moyo urges readers to carefully consider her arguments before dismissing them.

Overall, "Edge of Chaos" is a breath of fresh air. It challenges the status quo and offers a compelling vision for a more resilient democracy. Moyo's well-researched analysis and bold ideas are sure to spark conversation among policymakers, economists, and anyone invested in the future of democracy.

[Paul Benno · Rating 2 out of 5]

The body of the work reads like a college student's paper or cut past from a couple of years of articles from the economist. She presents random factoids, quotes and assertions and draws conclusions which are subjective opinions at best. It goes down hill from there with her recommendations which for each one there are equally strong arguments why they would not work or would not have the desired impact. "Insist politicians have a career outside of politics" she claims will help fix the problem - two best examples of that are Trump and George W!. Make voting compulsory like Australia but also like the Congo - a great example. Pay politicians bonus for targets like growing GDP - you'd be paying Trump a bonus for his tax cuts! Growth solves the problem - we can't grow infinitum!

She either glosses over or ignores the key issues of; culture, intergenerational and religious wars, overpopulation, inequality and the biggest issue of all - no matter how much growth there is there are an increasing number of losers and if you open the flood gates for free movement of people which she prefers then there will only be more disaffected voters in the west.

Rather than waste valuable time reading/listening to this I would suggest Francis Fukuyama' Political Order and Political Decay and Thomas Piketty's Capital in the Twenty First Century for some impressive scholarship and an understanding of the causes for our demise and potential solutions.

[Joe Hoggard · Rating 3 out of 5]

Controversial? Yes. To suggest antidemocratic reforms such as knowledge tests for highly qualified voters as a way to improve global markets seems a bit misguided. Fawning over autocratic regimes as bastions of growth disregards numerous examples where those autocratic leaders simply enriched themselves. The author rightly recognized the threats of populist movements and the dangers of overemphasized short-term goals at the expense of stability from longer term commitments. I am not sure many of the recommendations would be palatable or actually practical. We do need an informed populace to elect good leaders, but there is no guarantee that people will not instead rely on emotional appeals and rhetoric when it comes time to vote. We need a robust free press for this to work. Term limits if properly set could help dislodge some of the entrenched interests, but I am not in favor of just giving politicians longer terms in balance.

[Rennie · Rating 2 out of 5]

I read Ms. Moyo's Dead Aid years ago and liked it but this book is not as coherent or practical as I had hoped. Having said that, any book that makes me think about how democracy is working (or not) is worth my time. I do agree that the short term thinking our government indulges in is counterproductive to the well-being of the country or the planet. But saying she wants a better democracy to lead to more "growth" is interesting as that mindless drive for corporate growth is what got us into today's somewhat dire straits. It is also a problem that many of those elected and even serving in senior roles have next to no experience in any discipline that would enable them to make well-founded decisions and that really matters when we don't have any way to hold the accountable for them and they can just gamble with our future for potentially short-term personal gains.

Alex Marland's book "Whipped: Party Discipline in Canada" was more relevant for me.

[Adam Sherman · Rating 4 out of 5]

Made strong arguments on the places where Democracy fails, but I think she oversimplifies and over-catastrophizes. Her strongest arguments in my views were on political economic reforms in America where she laid out detailed policy reforms that seem sensible. Take all of her statistics with a grain of salt however, she mentions the male labor participation rate in the 70s and now, but not the female one for instance. A lot of one-sided reporting in the statistics in that manner, and I still think she undervalues matching through the internet as a public good and the measurement. Would recommend for those interested in alternate governance models that are a little

[Kuba Sol · Rating 5 out of 5]

Current problems of the world economy and how to solve them.

A very interesting and broad analisys of the present state of the world done through the lenses of the liberal economist. The book captures the essence of the modern global state of affairs. Correctly pointing out to negative phenomena troubling modern liberal democracies (as well as private sector) such as myopia in decission making, Dambisa Moyo tries to find applicable systemic sollutions that would adress them appropiately, a "package to reform democracy" as she puts it. An important voice that steers the discussion in the right direction and a warning that should be noticed.

[Joe Lang · Rating 2 out of 5]

Great ideas to begin rethinking how to improve liberal democracy. But the author shows less than a mastery of the subject by throwing around statistics with little context and fails to provide actionable next steps to take any of the ideas further. The book sounds like an economist that knows enough to be scared of where democracy is taking the American economy, gives a small nudge to the electorate and policy makers towards possible solutions, but is essentially asking for someone else to take the ideas any further.

[Anita · Rating 3 out of 5]

I was slightly disappointed by the book. While it contains a good and quite comprehensive overview of the existing problems that democracies are faced with, solutions come at the very end (most of them - only in the appendix table!), with little or no explanation of why they would work. Furthermore, I am not sure that all the suggested solutions are applicable to all countries and contexts. I believe the book would be much more convincing if it elaborated on each of the suggested solutions in more detail and provided stronger arguments of why they would yield positive change.

[Matt Gosney · Rating 3 out of 5]

Short and sweet. Her 10 ways how to fix democracy. She also examines why long term authoritarian leaders might be better, the declining approval rating of democracy and whether there needs to be reformed. Some of her ideas are already implemented in some countries and she investigates the outcomes of those too. Very straight to the point but also heavily researched. Not as engaging as Dead Aid but worth the time.

[Carolcharles026 · Rating 4 out of 5]

I learned a lot from the first 6 chapters of the book and appreciated that the analysis was backed by data but also presented in a way that is palatable for non-economists.
I didn’t agree with all the solutions presented in the last two chapters and they felt abit rushed in places, but one of the goals of reading is to expand your horizons and allow you to consider life in a different way, and this book more than accomplishes that

[Kalid Mawi · Rating 4 out of 5]

First book from Dr. Moyo I’ve read. Enjoyed the canonization of the alarmist narrative where fundamental change in political (structural reforms in democratic undertaking) and economic development are deemed essential against the global environment we’re heading into. The Capital, Labour, and Productivity framework to explain economic growth but also to go over prevailing challenges was fun to explore.

[Karen Ashmore · Rating 4 out of 5]

I have read all of Moyo’s books and find her amazing. She has lots of good points. She is a globalization expert so, of course, is going to tout that. In reading the other reviews, my first thought is, “How typical of white men to tear down a woman of color”. Sigh. You don’t have to agree with everything to appreciate her.

[Bill Howard · Rating 5 out of 5]

Must Read!

The suggestions offered here in the Edge of Chaos are worth serious consideration. My concern is who can we trust to make these considerations honestly and with our country not the wealthy best intrest in mind.
Thank You Dambisa Moyo for your clearly in depth review of this extremely important subject.