Where Did You Get This Number?: A Pollster's Guide to Making Sense of the World

by Anthony Salvanto

CBS News’ Elections and Surveys Director Anthony Salvanto takes you behind the scenes of polling to show you how to think about who we are and where we’re headed as a nation.

As Elections and Surveys Director for CBS News, it’s Anthony Salvanto’s job to understand you—what you think and how you vote. He’s the person behind so many of the poll numbers you see today, making the winner calls on election nights and surveying thousands of Americans. In Where Did You Get This Number? A Pollster’s Guide to Making Sense of the World , Salvanto takes readers on a fast-paced, eye-opening tour through the world of polling and elections and what they really show about America today, beyond the who's-up-who’s-down headlines and horse races. Salvanto is just the person to bring much-needed clarity in a time when divisions seem to run so deep.

The language of polling may be numbers, but the stories it tells are about people. In this engaging insider’s account, Salvanto demystifies jargon with plain language and answers readers’ biggest questions about polling and pollsters. How can they talk to 1,000 people and know the country? How do they know the winner so fast? How do they decide what questions to ask? Why didn't they call you? Salvanto offers data-driven perspective on how Americans see the biggest issues of our time, from the surprising 2016 election, to the shocks of the financial crisis, the response to terrorism and the backlash against big money. He doesn’t shy away from pointing out what’s worked and what hasn’t. Salvanto takes readers inside the CBS newsroom on Election Night 2016 and makes readers rethink conventional wisdom and punditry just in time for the 2018 midterms. He shows who really decides elections and why you should think about a poll differently from the forecasts popularized by Nate Silver and others.

Where Did You Get This Number? is an essential resource for anyone interested in politics—and how to better measure and understand patterns of human behavior. For any American who wants to get a better read on what America is thinking, this book shows you how to make sense of it all.

Genres: Nonfiction, Politics

258 pages, Kindle Edition

Published August 21, 2018

Reviews

[Bandit · Rating 4 out of 5]

On November 8th 2016 I went to bed at a regular time trying not to think about the election or more like refusing to believe the possibilities…and woke up to a brave horrifying new world that had such people in it. Meanwhile Anthony Salvanto, CBS News’ Elections and Surveys Director, stayed up and witnessed that nightmare personally, totaling the numbers well into the night and finally calling the election. And now he’s written a book about how that came to be, a book about polling, surveys and statistics. Ok, that doesn’t sound too exciting, few would go wild for quantitative social sciences, but anyone with interest in politics in the increasingly divided aggressively bipartisan America should really check this book out. It doesn’t just tell you numbers, it (like a good pollster) explains the reasons behind the numbers. I, for one, founded it fascinating and grimly educational. Politics is a relatively new interest of mine, but social psychology has been one for a while and this book catered to both. And as difficult as reliving the last election was, gaining a new understanding of the numbers and theories based whys behind it was well worth it. Also the book reads notably well, almost astonishingly so for a nonfiction about statistics. I mean, I was ready was educational, but tiresome slog and got only the former. The book is surprisingly lively for its genre and subject and reads very well and quickly. Politics are difficult enough to discuss that good manners recommend not even bringing it up in polite company and yet the Anthony Salvanto somehow managed to write a perfectly unbiased political themed book. How…polite. The author to his credit tried to end it on a cheery note and the man has certainly seen enough plot turns as it were to have an objective perspective, but realistically the state of things (from news to actual poll results) doesn’t inspire much confidence. Apathy and ignorance are a dangerous combination any way you take it, everyone knows what comes of the proverbial good men doing nothing and yet voting turn outs are appalling and political intelligence of many leaves a lot to be desired. At least there are polls to explain these depressing trends and there is a certain comfort that comes from understanding. The book’s very good, everyone can learn something from it. Or not, after all there are no IQ requirements to vote as has been made blatantly obvious time and again. Also, I'm the first person reviewing this, so...awesome. Thanks Netgalley.

[Hope · Rating 3 out of 5]

Anthony Salvanto does a really solid job explaining the basics of how polling works, including how to create a good poll, sample sizes, etc. He also pulls some interesting polling data to use as examples - both political and not. The first half of the book is not going to give you any particularly interesting or new information, aside from specific polling data, if you already have a basic knowledge of statistics. Overall, the book had a good pacing to it, but there were some grammatical and punctuation issues throughout that made it a little difficult to get through - I found myself rereading a lot of sentences in the first few chapters before I started getting a little more used to it.

[Toni · Rating 3 out of 5]

I enjoy knowing what's behind the numbers, and how they got to a certain number.
This book is probably not for everyone, for sure, and it's not especially "readable" as some books can be on tough subjects. Especially for amateurs such as myself. (Think Michael Lewis, The Big Short.)
But Anthony does a decent job trying to explain how polls are done, calculated, etc. I'd compare understanding polling, the justification and explanation for the resulting numbers and percentages to retaking college statistics while undergoing a root canal.
However, I'm in awe of those who can, and do. Thank you

[Mark Tadder · Rating 4 out of 5]

This is a nearly perfect example of why I like to read nonfiction books. Even though I was advocation Lee and professionally involved in political field operations, in the past, I learned a lot of things about how polling works, and how most if not, everybody is wrong about their methods tactics, and the care that is provided into making sure that data is collected without, ridiculous interpretation. I will say that there is a little bit of pushback at the 538 forecasting folks but at least I understand what their beef is and probably now agree with it. On the other hand, if you like, continuing along with Volk wisdom on elections, you might wanna skip this book because it will – many of your beliefs.

[Randal White · Rating 3 out of 5]

I requested this book as an ARC from NetGalley, as I was interested in finding out what, in my opinion, went so horribly awry in the 2016 Presidential Election. I mean, how could the “pollsters” have gotten it so wrong?
The author does explain the polling methods and techniques used in predicting elections. I found it interesting, but a bit dry.

[Phil · Rating 3 out of 5]

A primer on the world of polling: the selection of samples, and formulation of questions. Both those fascinated by or cynical of polling will come away with a greater appreciation of how polls and surveys are conducted, as well as a much clearer sense of what they mean.

[Kate · Rating 4 out of 5]

"It's like in baseball's 2016 World Series, when the Indians and CUbs scored the same amount of total runs in the seven-game series, but the Cubs won more games, and games are what counts. Think of runs like votes and districts like games." (p 143)

I enjoyed this book. There were many moments of levity and Salvanto has a sense of humor that translates to the written word. This is good, his subject matter can be a bit dry. There have been so many polls advertised everywhere and it certainly seems one can get a poll to say whatever you want. I appreciated the examples of actual polls being reported throughout the media. The inherent biases of polls can certainly make a difference. Much of the information presented, I did know, but to put it together in an amusing, concise book was beneficial. I am not looking to discuss the information in this book with my family across the aisle, but I do feel more prepared to respond if and when polls come up.

[Jonathan Cervas · Rating 4 out of 5]

Anthony is my academic brother, since we had the same advisors in grad school (though he many years earlier). I really enjoyed this book, and for those who want to know more about polling data and what can go wrong, Anthony is the source. This book is an easy read that makes some interesting points based on data, and mixes in political science. I love the anecdotes about how he met his wife in grad school and other stories!

[Stephanie · Rating 4 out of 5]

Political Predictions in a Chaotic Age: WHERE DID YOU GET THIS NUMBER?
http://fangswandsandfairydust.com/201...
How do pollsters come up with the winners and losers on election night?

Anthony Salvatino has a Ph.D. in Political Science and is the Director of Elections and Surveys at CBS news where he has worked since 2002. That he has a doctorate in Political Science rather than Statistics, Math, or even Mass Communication was the first thing I learned — I always thought political polls were conducted and analyzed by Statisticians or people who were specialists in communication polling.

Today we are in a time of great chaos and mistrust we need to know there is no fake wizard behind the screen, but science and journalists. I found this book reassuring.

That he is an expert: experienced, skilled and confident is without doubt. Listening to him read his book makes me even more certain that when this guy makes a decision about who has won or lost, or tells us about how the nation feels about a political topic or candidate, that he is telling us what he believes is true as far as his numbers and analysis goes. His reading of his own story tells me that the stress and cadence are what her wants, and his humor and voice tell me he’s a bit of a nerd. It’s amazing he can make a subject as dry as how one collects and analyzes survey data at all interesting, and occasionally funny, is a miracle. And it is also evident that he enjoys his work.

But, there is a lot of explanation of things mostly political scientists care about, so I chose to listen in smaller pieces. A lot of what he knows is experiential – the way he can look at early numbers on election night and see that a lead will not hold up because those early numbers come from absentee ballots and those have a tendency to have been sent in by more Democrats and younger voters.

I’ve been stymied by politics recently and got this book to help me understand the dynamic between the media and the current administration: is it “fake news,” does the mainstream media contaminate the process. Can we trust the maje network pollsters? I don’t know if we can trust everyone. But, from his narration, education and writing I trust this one.

[Richard · Rating 4 out of 5]

An expert and very readable journey into the world of polling. I think I knew more about polling than the average person, but I learned quite a bit. What goes into getting a representative sample? Why do pollsters typically use sample sizes of around 1000 people? Are results skewed because so many people don't have landline phones? (The answer to this one is "no", and Salvanto tells why.)

Salvanto uses many real world and recent examples to illustrate his points, although he does dip back to the "Dewey Beats Truman" embarrassment. He covers his career in the first few chapters. The next several chapters focus on polling "war" stories which I found to be entertaining and informative. He goes into some detail about how races get called by the news networks. Then he gets into examples of how the response data can be analyzed to coax a lot more insight into the population than one might imagine. Finally, he ends up addressing a number of current issues and shows what polls have revealed, treating some of these subjects with a lot more depth than you usually get from other sources, and certainly more depth than you get from cable TV, talk radio, and most print media. The book's subtitle, "A Pollster's Guide to Making Sense of the World", is quite accurate, assuming your "World" is "America".

This book will definitely appeal to habitual cable TV news watchers, no matter which network you prefer, and anyone else interested in politics or social science. Salvanto does a pretty good job in keeping the tone of the book neutral to the various political positions, which is exactly how a poll and (by extension) a pollster ought to be. The final chapter dragged a little bit, but overall I found the book to be informative and enjoyable. I will be better able to interpret poll results I see on the news.

[Paul Miller · Rating 4 out of 5]

‘Aha’ nuggets about political polls breezily delivered by the CBS news head of polling. It’s all about targeting the right sample that captures the ’nation in miniature’ (~1000 people is all it takes). BIG aha was the degree of partisanship in the US; even most of those who claim to be ‘independent’ aren’t; they vote only one party. As a result, elections are ALL about turnout. Trump won b/c Hillary was such a poor candidate; the ’Never Trumpers’ voted much more, and blacks/young people much less than was modeled by the pollsters. Explains why Trump focuses so much on the campaign promises and the base - Dems aren’t ever going to vote for him anyway, so why waste the time? (BTW, the trend toward partisanship began w/W and dramatically accelerated under Obama.) Not loving the trend but useful to understand it. Well-worth the quick read.

[Molly · Rating 3 out of 5]

This was a thoroughly okay book about how polls work, how they're constructed to tell a story, and what they can tell us about current American politics. I especially enjoyed Salvanto's chapter about creating good poll questions; I felt like I learned something new there. The rest was marginally educational, but it struck too casual a tone to feel really serious about teaching me anything. In the last few chapters on current events, it seemed like Salvanto shied away from making any controversial points: he just sort of put forward some poll numbers and shrugged. Overall, a passable intro to what polling is and what it's designed to do, but don't come to this book expecting something mind-blowing.

[Nicole · Rating 4 out of 5]

Where Did You Get This Number? is an easy to read beginner's guide to polling. Salvanto explains the basics of how polling works and tries to clear up some common misconceptions about how people view the polls. He strikes a good balance between the factual information and stories about his experiences as a pollster. Overall, I found the information in this book helpful, but was aware that this book was intended to provide a very beginning level of understanding about polls.

[rozey · Rating 3 out of 5]

Interesting read that I would definitely recommend for anyone who wants to understand some of the basics of polling, predictive modeling, and the other dramas of election season. I don't think I learned a lot considering this book is pretty rudimentary but I still used as a touchstone text for research given the author is quite engaging and I like his sprinkling of his own experiences embedded in more general explanations of political statistics.

[RLM · Rating 4 out of 5]

If you're at all interested in how public opinion polling is done, this is a good introduction by an author who works for a respected polling institution (CBS News). Salvanto talks about all of the major components of a good poll - sampling, questionnaire design, coverage, and analysis - without going too far into the overly technical details of an advanced text.

[Sarah Shaiman · Rating 3 out of 5]

Great storytelling, placing political polling which can be a rather dry topic in the context of the 2016 election and other controversial issues. Most of the information in the book would be redundant for anyone who ever took a high school or college stats course but still a great introduction to polling and political polling at that.

[Jon Gaide · Rating 3 out of 5]

Didn’t dive into the weeds of conducting polls as much as I’d have liked it to. Sort of cool that at times he narrates a story using results from polls taken throughout; but, overall, there’s a decent amount of talking in circles and I think I would have done some things differently as an editor (grammatically and otherwise).

Oh well. Some fascinating numbers and tidbits throughout

[Emily · Rating 3 out of 5]

This is a good book for anyone who’s interested in polling, but likely not worth it to read if you’re actually a pollster since I’m not sure you’ll learn anything new! I wish he wrote more about the importance of weighting to education.

[Clayton Turner · Rating 3 out of 5]

“Last year 55% of Americans said they were optimistic the country could come together. 55% isn’t everyone but it is a majority. What will you do with that number?” ~ Anthony Salvanto, Where’d You Get This Number?

[Savannah Thorpe · Rating 5 out of 5]

I really appreciated how Salvanto walked readers through the facts of the matter. While he does inject some commentary now and again, Salvanto tells readers about the data he collected and how the polls he helped conduct explain how we've gotten to where we are politically in 2018.

[Sarah Pascarella · Rating 5 out of 5]

A clear and engaging guide for everyday folks on how polls are put together, and how the public should interpret their findings. Each chapter taught me something new and I feel I have a better understanding of political news coverage after reading this book.

[Jim · Rating 2 out of 5]

Book about Pres election polling - 2016

[Sarah - All The Book Blog Names Are Taken · Rating 3 out of 5]

It was hard to relieve that really terrible night, but interesting to beyond the poll numbers. I also worked for Gallup for a year or so, and it's all pretty interesting. Review to come

[morgan · Rating 5 out of 5]

Very readable, insightful, informative. Not overly academic as one might fear. Mr Salvanto brings a warm, personable approach to the text. He has a sense of humor throughout, and I enjoyed his analogies, anecdotes.