景氣為什麼會循環：歷史、理論與投資實務

by Lars Tvede, 蕭美惠 (Translator), 陳儀 (Translator)

探索歷史事實，解開成長與衰退的奧祕
釐清投資現實，掌握市場與價格的脈動

我們一生都會歷經數次經濟的成長、衰退和危機，商界及民間對於未來生活總是從樂觀的高峰跌落失望深淵，又在某種契機下雄心再起。如此往復不爽的循環波動，我們該如何理解和預測呢？

為了解開景氣循環的奧祕，《金融心理學》暢銷作者拉斯．特維德帶領我們重啟歷史扉頁，從蘇格蘭賭徒兼金融天才的約翰．勞時代開始，回溯才智菁英前撲後繼的解密之旅，包括：「看不見的手」亞當．史密斯、股票經紀人李嘉圖、投資銀行家桑頓、志得意滿的熊彼德、美國「最惡交易員」的古爾德等人，探索300年來景氣循環的事實與相應而起的各派理論，一直到現今電腦時代，經濟學者以龐大的數學等式建立鉅細靡遺的經濟模型，都是為了解開古典經濟學家深受蠱惑的景氣循環真相。

這趟歷史之旅的目的並僅是回顧過往，拉斯．特維德的目的更在於讓讀者知道，當代對景氣循環的理解是如何運用於預測經濟波動，因此本書更詳盡地研究並解釋房地產、股票、債券、避險基金、黃金、白銀、鑽石、匯率、大宗商品期貨、藝術品和收藏品等資產市場的特性，揭示景氣循環中各類資產的階段表現及互動影響，讓我們可以更為精確的掌握市場脈動。

Genres: Economics, Business, Finance

448 pages, Paperback

First published May 26, 2006

Reviews

[Terry · Rating 4 out of 5]

Good summary of influential economists of history, and their theories about business cycles. However, it would be better if author can offer more real life examples. I like the Chicago property market section, stock market crashes in 1987, and the creation of paper currency. Lastly, as the author pointed out himself, there’s simply too few samples to generate a great theory. Human business history is too short and has changed too much. Therefore every cycle is different.

[Ethan J · Rating 4 out of 5]

写的真好啊，可以说是很好的宏观经济启蒙了，从货币的简史谈到解析历史上的一些经济危机，分析了房地产、股票、各种资产与宏观经济的关系，真的算是高屋建瓴，真是感叹这本书为啥不出现在大学必修课里面啊！

[Nam KK · Rating 4 out of 5]

A comprehensive book studying markets cycles from the perspectives of academic economists rather than of financial markets investors. Depending on who you are and what are your interests, you might like the book or not. I definitely have a good time reading the book - the author writing style is funny enough. His efforts make reading economics (for cycles) not terribly boring. Still, it took a lot of efforts from me to finish the book. I think I might pick Ray Dalio for another study on cycles though - it would be more to the point as it is from a financial investor.

[至 荀 · Rating 5 out of 5]

这样的金融史写的非常好。大学时代读书都是一本西方经济学，里面很多理论就和公示一样的枯燥。后来才知道有亚当.斯密。但是对于他理论的形成还是一无所知。读了这本书才慢慢了解这些理论形成的社会基础和理论之间的联系。那些大家相互借鉴，相互学习。根据自身的认知逐渐形成理论化。来解决当时时代的困境。才明白这些理论的基础和适用性。以及后人怎么发现问题，进而改进、优化。

[RorSpike · Rating 5 out of 5]

经济周期无法避免，只能顺其自然