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石油效應：能源危機來臨，該如何投資、如何選股？
問題就出在石油！
在過去的30年，油價是影響全球經濟的一項最重要因素。目前大部分的地質學家認為，傳統驅動經濟成長的便宜石油，在不久的將來將不足所需。油價將會超過每桶100美元，導致兩位數的通貨膨脹，甚至可能產生間接出現的通貨緊縮。未來的經濟將更為步履蹣跚，股市呈現更大的波動。幸運的是，本書兩位作者提供了指引，能讓你安然度過未來的壞日子，並成功獲利。藉由本書點出的石油指標之幫助，你將知道在各種市場環境下做出最正確的投資抉擇；此外，也將引導你建構以實質資產為主的資產組合。你將從本書學到以下重要的投資觀點：
‧為何石油與天然氣類股應是每一個投資人的核心持股？
‧為何長抱策略注定虧錢，以及傳統的績優股未來的風險將很大？
‧為何金價將展開前所未見的多頭格局？
‧全球油源爭奪戰如何使國防類股成為投資首選？
‧何處可以找到替代能源領域中極為穩當的投資標的？
‧如何不必真正擁有房地產，卻仍能因而獲利？
《石油效應》提供了極富實務價值的建議，和智慧精明的選股推薦，對未來可能要冒著資產縮水風險的傳統投資模式，提供了另一種選擇，這本書將是未來10年投資人必讀的理財著作。
在過去的30年，油價是影響全球經濟的一項最重要因素。目前大部分的地質學家認為，傳統驅動經濟成長的便宜石油，在不久的將來將不足所需。油價將會超過每桶100美元，導致兩位數的通貨膨脹，甚至可能產生間接出現的通貨緊縮。未來的經濟將更為步履蹣跚，股市呈現更大的波動。幸運的是，本書兩位作者提供了指引，能讓你安然度過未來的壞日子，並成功獲利。藉由本書點出的石油指標之幫助，你將知道在各種市場環境下做出最正確的投資抉擇；此外，也將引導你建構以實質資產為主的資產組合。你將從本書學到以下重要的投資觀點：
‧為何石油與天然氣類股應是每一個投資人的核心持股？
‧為何長抱策略注定虧錢，以及傳統的績優股未來的風險將很大？
‧為何金價將展開前所未見的多頭格局？
‧全球油源爭奪戰如何使國防類股成為投資首選？
‧何處可以找到替代能源領域中極為穩當的投資標的？
‧如何不必真正擁有房地產，卻仍能因而獲利？
《石油效應》提供了極富實務價值的建議，和智慧精明的選股推薦，對未來可能要冒著資產縮水風險的傳統投資模式，提供了另一種選擇，這本書將是未來10年投資人必讀的理財著作。
245 pages, Paperback
First published January 1, 2004
9 people are currently reading
88 people want to read
About the author
Stephen Leeb
25 books11 followersStephen Leeb is a money manager and investment adviser. For more than 45 years he has been guiding investors via newsletters, books, blogs, and appearances on financial news networks including CNN, Fox News, NPR and Bloomberg TV.
Currently he edits the investment letter The Complete Investor, which he founded in 2003. Within its first year of publication, it won an award for editorial excellence from the Newsletter and Electronic Publishers Foundation, winning the award again in 2005.He also is owner and chief investment officer of Leeb Capital Management (LCM), a New York-based wealth management firm.
Leeb is the author of nine books on finance, investing, and geopolitical trends, starting with “Getting in on the Ground Floor” (1986) through his most recent, “China’s Rise and the New Age of Gold” (2020).
He has been called one of the country's foremost financial experts by Business journalist Charles Gasparino and one of the greatest long term strategists of his generation by American billionaire businessman Thomas Kaplan which can be summarized by Kaplan's statement and foreword in Leeb's 2012 release of Red Alert saying "I would caution readers to dismiss Stephen Leeb's warnings only at their peril."
Leeb is married to Donna Leeb, also an author, and lives in New York City, New York.
Currently he edits the investment letter The Complete Investor, which he founded in 2003. Within its first year of publication, it won an award for editorial excellence from the Newsletter and Electronic Publishers Foundation, winning the award again in 2005.He also is owner and chief investment officer of Leeb Capital Management (LCM), a New York-based wealth management firm.
Leeb is the author of nine books on finance, investing, and geopolitical trends, starting with “Getting in on the Ground Floor” (1986) through his most recent, “China’s Rise and the New Age of Gold” (2020).
He has been called one of the country's foremost financial experts by Business journalist Charles Gasparino and one of the greatest long term strategists of his generation by American billionaire businessman Thomas Kaplan which can be summarized by Kaplan's statement and foreword in Leeb's 2012 release of Red Alert saying "I would caution readers to dismiss Stephen Leeb's warnings only at their peril."
Leeb is married to Donna Leeb, also an author, and lives in New York City, New York.
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Displaying 1 - 9 of 9 reviews
April 23, 2008
Stephen Leeb got it right! He porjected that Oil would reach $100 a barrel by the end of the decade and it has. He also mentions the potential for the housing crisis and the threat that would represent to the Financial community. If this were to happen (it has) he suggested the Federal Reserve Bank (the FED) would pull out all the stops in trying to prevent a Financial collapse - and the FED has done that. With that he stated that we would see higher inflation - it has already started (though I think that the consumer price index may be understating inflation) and we can anticipate inflation a good bit higher over the next year. He suggests if that were to happen the FED would have little they could do to prevent it without risking a financial collapse.
Oh, yes and on the Stock Market - a rise in Oil prices of 80% or more year over year will lead to a drop in stock prices until year over year rises come back down to 20% or less. We are currently up about 80% year over year (at $118 - $120 as of mid april 2008).
Oh, yes and on the Stock Market - a rise in Oil prices of 80% or more year over year will lead to a drop in stock prices until year over year rises come back down to 20% or less. We are currently up about 80% year over year (at $118 - $120 as of mid april 2008).
August 14, 2019
They've been right so far
This is an unusually lucid guide for investors with the focus on the price of oil as the key economic indicator.
Stephen and Donna Leeb argue rather convincingly that oil has been and will continue to be the big moose that moves the financial markets one way or the other. They show how sharp jumps in the price of oil in the past have triggered market downturns, and how falling, moderate or stable prices have led to bull markets. With oil at or near its so-called Hubbert's peak (one trillion barrels used; one trillion still left in the ground), and with rising demand from an increasingly industrialized world, especially from a voracious China, the authors see oil ratcheting up to record highs in the near future and more or less staying there. They see this as leading to inflation and negative real interest rates--although in some scenarios (hedging their bets, as all wise prognosticators do), the authors warn about periods of deflation. Consequently, investors need to pick investments that protect them against the erosion of their dollars, while hedging against intermittent economic slowdowns.
The authors have a table on page 202 that uses what they call the "oil indicator" to tell you which investments are best for inflationary periods (the coming norm) and deflationary. For example, when the oil indicator is positive (that is, oil is rising only modestly) you should buy energy stocks, gold, and a few hand-picked others, like Real Estate Investment Trusts. But when the oil indicator is negative (when the price of oil is skyrocketing) the danger of an economic slowdown looms because the price of doing business becomes more expensive for just about everybody in our oil-dependant economy. In such times, deflation is the danger. Therefore, your portfolio should be heavy into things like zero coupon bonds and "cash"--cash being treasuries, triple A corporate bonds, or other super safe instruments.
This book is the trade paperback edition of the original hardcover book copyrighted in 2004. This is essentially the same book that Stephen and Donna Leeb wrote in 2002, but with a new introduction. The reason for this edition is that the Leebs were especially prescient in their predictions. Oil has shot up to over sixty dollars a barrel, and inflation is on the rise while the Fed has continued to raise interest rates in an attempt to slow things down. Prognosticators that are right tend to gain readers.
What sets this apart from many investor-guides that I have read over the years is the authors' lack of even the barest hint of political bias, and the fine justification and reasoning for their portfolio recommendations. The fact that they have been right so far is to their credit, but there are always prognosticators that are right and prognosticators that are wrong. The fact that someone is prescient a time or two or three means little in my opinion. It is the strength of their reasoning that counts, not their past record. To appreciate this point, consider that in any given year there are hundreds of books written that tell the investor where to put his or her money. Some turn out to be right, some wrong, and some in-between. Almost inevitably someone will get it right or nearly right by happenstance. If they really had a crystal ball they would not need to write books (although they might for the sheer joy of it). They could instead just put their money where their mouth is and make mass bucks, as does, say Warren Buffett.
A nice point made by the authors is that with so many Americans caught up in so much debt ("2.8 times the gross domestic product") "strong economic growth becomes essential, even at the price of high inflation." Furthermore, since so much of that debt is in the form of home mortgages, there is a limit to how high the Fed can raise interest rates since that would raise mortgage rates which would keep people from buying homes, which would result in falling home prices, which would "cause the economy to unravel." (From the summary of Chapter 5, "The Debt Burden" on p. 61)
Ergo, inflation is coming, and what the investor needs to do is invest in inflation hedges such as gold mining stocks, gold, art masterpieces, etc., but NOT in real estate (the usual best hedge against inflation) since there is that...uh, bubble.
The problem with all this--as I like to remind everyone--is that the future will be like the past, only different.
Let me repeat that: the future will be like the past, only different.
The "only different" is the important part. We should have had a deep recession when the tech bubble burst in 2000. That is what has typically happened in the past. But we only had a slowdown because what was different was that the value of our homes rocketed up allowing consumers to dip into their equity to buy stuff while interest rates fell and fell so that many more people could afford to buy homes which continued to lift home prices, which led to more equity spending which floated the economy.
What might happen that is different from the authors' scenario is that the home price bubble might burst despite the best efforts of the powers that be. Along with skyrocketing oil prices, this would cause the whole economy to come tumbling down. Such an economic catastrophe would usher in a recession with inflation just a fond fool's dream in the rearview mirror.
Bottom line: very much worth reading for the authors' lucid explanation of why they (and most other experts, by the way, that I have read) think will be the shape of our near-term economic future and what you the individual investor can do about it.
--Dennis Littrell, author of “The World Is Not as We Think It Is”
This is an unusually lucid guide for investors with the focus on the price of oil as the key economic indicator.
Stephen and Donna Leeb argue rather convincingly that oil has been and will continue to be the big moose that moves the financial markets one way or the other. They show how sharp jumps in the price of oil in the past have triggered market downturns, and how falling, moderate or stable prices have led to bull markets. With oil at or near its so-called Hubbert's peak (one trillion barrels used; one trillion still left in the ground), and with rising demand from an increasingly industrialized world, especially from a voracious China, the authors see oil ratcheting up to record highs in the near future and more or less staying there. They see this as leading to inflation and negative real interest rates--although in some scenarios (hedging their bets, as all wise prognosticators do), the authors warn about periods of deflation. Consequently, investors need to pick investments that protect them against the erosion of their dollars, while hedging against intermittent economic slowdowns.
The authors have a table on page 202 that uses what they call the "oil indicator" to tell you which investments are best for inflationary periods (the coming norm) and deflationary. For example, when the oil indicator is positive (that is, oil is rising only modestly) you should buy energy stocks, gold, and a few hand-picked others, like Real Estate Investment Trusts. But when the oil indicator is negative (when the price of oil is skyrocketing) the danger of an economic slowdown looms because the price of doing business becomes more expensive for just about everybody in our oil-dependant economy. In such times, deflation is the danger. Therefore, your portfolio should be heavy into things like zero coupon bonds and "cash"--cash being treasuries, triple A corporate bonds, or other super safe instruments.
This book is the trade paperback edition of the original hardcover book copyrighted in 2004. This is essentially the same book that Stephen and Donna Leeb wrote in 2002, but with a new introduction. The reason for this edition is that the Leebs were especially prescient in their predictions. Oil has shot up to over sixty dollars a barrel, and inflation is on the rise while the Fed has continued to raise interest rates in an attempt to slow things down. Prognosticators that are right tend to gain readers.
What sets this apart from many investor-guides that I have read over the years is the authors' lack of even the barest hint of political bias, and the fine justification and reasoning for their portfolio recommendations. The fact that they have been right so far is to their credit, but there are always prognosticators that are right and prognosticators that are wrong. The fact that someone is prescient a time or two or three means little in my opinion. It is the strength of their reasoning that counts, not their past record. To appreciate this point, consider that in any given year there are hundreds of books written that tell the investor where to put his or her money. Some turn out to be right, some wrong, and some in-between. Almost inevitably someone will get it right or nearly right by happenstance. If they really had a crystal ball they would not need to write books (although they might for the sheer joy of it). They could instead just put their money where their mouth is and make mass bucks, as does, say Warren Buffett.
A nice point made by the authors is that with so many Americans caught up in so much debt ("2.8 times the gross domestic product") "strong economic growth becomes essential, even at the price of high inflation." Furthermore, since so much of that debt is in the form of home mortgages, there is a limit to how high the Fed can raise interest rates since that would raise mortgage rates which would keep people from buying homes, which would result in falling home prices, which would "cause the economy to unravel." (From the summary of Chapter 5, "The Debt Burden" on p. 61)
Ergo, inflation is coming, and what the investor needs to do is invest in inflation hedges such as gold mining stocks, gold, art masterpieces, etc., but NOT in real estate (the usual best hedge against inflation) since there is that...uh, bubble.
The problem with all this--as I like to remind everyone--is that the future will be like the past, only different.
Let me repeat that: the future will be like the past, only different.
The "only different" is the important part. We should have had a deep recession when the tech bubble burst in 2000. That is what has typically happened in the past. But we only had a slowdown because what was different was that the value of our homes rocketed up allowing consumers to dip into their equity to buy stuff while interest rates fell and fell so that many more people could afford to buy homes which continued to lift home prices, which led to more equity spending which floated the economy.
What might happen that is different from the authors' scenario is that the home price bubble might burst despite the best efforts of the powers that be. Along with skyrocketing oil prices, this would cause the whole economy to come tumbling down. Such an economic catastrophe would usher in a recession with inflation just a fond fool's dream in the rearview mirror.
Bottom line: very much worth reading for the authors' lucid explanation of why they (and most other experts, by the way, that I have read) think will be the shape of our near-term economic future and what you the individual investor can do about it.
--Dennis Littrell, author of “The World Is Not as We Think It Is”
April 16, 2009
A book with a lot of proven foresight, a good must-read to broaden your scope on the role energy plays in the whole investment climate. Great for the retail investor: easy to understand, not so easy to apply though.
January 23, 2012
I wish I had read the book when it came out in 2004. Most of the predictions and advice were right on the money. A lot is still applicable even now.
November 30, 2018
Interesting.... new information included..
September 14, 2013
Good book that gives nice insight into investment, oil prices and stock trends. Author has been successful in predicting oil prices & stock behavior around 2010 in 2004.....I will recommend to anyone who is looking forward to invest in stock market.
*Note: The cover page of this book features a blowout. The day I started reading this book, next day after that I saw my life's 1st blowout on a nearby rig.
*Note: The cover page of this book features a blowout. The day I started reading this book, next day after that I saw my life's 1st blowout on a nearby rig.
August 2, 2007
Argues that the percent rise/fall in price of oil from 12 months prior can be a useful indicator in investing. Nonconventional, somewhat gimmicky method, but worth a look by anyone concerned with how energy supply/demand affects the stock market.
December 9, 2007
very-very inspiring especially for those who aware of the importance of energy industries in this modern world. All about energy, the ups and downs of fossil fuel for the last 30 years, the future of fossil and alternative energy, from the market, economics, science, and politics point of view!
January 19, 2009
it was ok.
Displaying 1 - 9 of 9 reviews