Predictable Surprises: The Disasters You Should Have Seen Coming, and How to Prevent Them

by Max H. Bazerman, Michael D. Watkins

Most events that catch us by surprise are both predictable and preventable, but we consistently miss (or ignore) the warning signs This book shows why such “predictable surprises” put us all at risk, and shows how we can understand, anticipate, and prevent them before disaster strikes. There is a universal fear factor surrounding this that society and the workplace are filled with disasters in the making that we could prevent if we only knew what to look for. This book plays on that fear and offers a positive, proactive resolution to it.

Genres: Nonfiction, Management, Business, Leadership, Professional Development, Self Help, Psychology

317 pages, Hardcover

First published October 1, 2004

About the author

Max H. Bazerman is the Jesse Isidor Straus Professor of Business Administration at the Harvard Business School and the Co-Director of the Center for Public Leadership at the Harvard Kennedy School. Max's research focuses on decision making, negotiation, and ethics. He is the author, co-author, or co-editor of twenty books and over 200 research articles and chapters. His latest book, The Power of Noticing: What the Best Leader See, is now available from Simon and Schuster.

Reviews

[George · Rating 4 out of 5]

Loved the topic and book had an interesting approach to the issue

[Tom · Rating 2 out of 5]

I cannot see myself recommending this book. I do agree with the basic premises – there are ‘predictable surprises’ affecting individuals, organizations and societies and that the effect of these ‘predictable surprises’ can be avoided or attenuated through better forethought. That is restating the definition of risk management.

The writing and presentation fall far below what I expected of a book published via the Harvard Business School Press. First, there is very little, if any, in the way of new or original concepts – except for the catchy mantra of ‘predictable surprises’ – a mantra that contrary to their referenced advice is parroted a tedium. They do include footnotes to references, but most seem to be secondary sources, not primary sources, which makes me question whether they verified the numbers and assertions or just relied on the previous publications’ efforts. The material is presented in a manner that includes a number of vignettes, but in the course of the vignette they digress with other data. So, as an example it creates an impression that the Monsanto decisions and actions in 1998 should have known about the British government study in 1999 (yes, a year later).

Certainly, effective leaders need to envision the range of future events and future states, identify and prioritize actions to control the future, and then follow through on those actions. There are many hindrances in this noble activity – the ability to see the future, the cognitive mental processes that inhibit the completeness and objectiveness of the vision, and the incentives to influence the future.

There are many better books addressing the topic.

[Anthony · Rating 4 out of 5]

Two business management professors weigh in on how large-scale and foreseeable disasters, such as September 11th and the collapse of Enron, could be avoided by taking preventative actions. Applicable to corporate managers, policymakers, and other organizational leaders, the lessons here may not be novel, but do represent one necessary component of visionary leadership: being aware of the eminent signs of disaster. Bazerman and Watkins cite a spate of Gore's Senate testimonies and several EPA reports which all have indicated the gravity of climate change, as well as Congressional hearings on corporate auditing-consulting independence, all as omens of major threats to come that largely went unheeded by decision-makers.

[Remo · Rating 2 out of 5]

I like the premise, but thought the authors failed in the execution. They were EXTREMELY repetitive and focused on big events like Katrina, 9/11, and Enron. I would have liked to see some small scale corporate examples. Their final chapter on future "surprises" to avoid was a political wishlist that damn near everyone knows about: Social Security, escalating health care costs, global warming (only half of Americans recognize that as a threat). There are better books out there on cognitive biases to avoid, I am not recommending this one at all.

[Susan · Rating 2 out of 5]

Way too much repetitive babbling. Bottom line: stay alert, be realistic, and don't procrastinate. Oh, and don't let political wrangling stop you from doing what's right. Sigh.

[Mark Bullock · Rating 4 out of 5]

Chapters 4 and 5, esp.

[Lori Grant · Rating 4 out of 5]

A should-read book on strategy for knowledge workers and entrepreneurs.