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Historical Dynamics: Why States Rise and Fall
Many historical processes are dynamic. Populations grow and decline. Empires expand and collapse. Religions spread and wither. Natural scientists have made great strides in understanding dynamical processes in the physical and biological worlds using a synthetic approach that combines mathematical modeling with statistical analyses. Taking up the problem of territorial dynamics--why some polities at certain times expand and at other times contract--this book shows that a similar research program can advance our understanding of dynamical processes in history.
Peter Turchin develops hypotheses from a wide range of social, political, economic, and demographic geopolitics, factors affecting collective solidarity, dynamics of ethnic assimilation/religious conversion, and the interaction between population dynamics and sociopolitical stability. He then translates these into a spectrum of mathematical models, investigates the dynamics predicted by the models, and contrasts model predictions with empirical patterns. Turchin's highly instructive empirical tests demonstrate that certain models predict empirical patterns with a very high degree of accuracy. For instance, one model accounts for the recurrent waves of state breakdown in medieval and early modern Europe. And historical data confirm that ethno-nationalist solidarity produces an aggressively expansive state under certain conditions (such as in locations where imperial frontiers coincide with religious divides). The strength of Turchin's results suggests that the synthetic approach he advocates can significantly improve our understanding of historical dynamics.
Peter Turchin develops hypotheses from a wide range of social, political, economic, and demographic geopolitics, factors affecting collective solidarity, dynamics of ethnic assimilation/religious conversion, and the interaction between population dynamics and sociopolitical stability. He then translates these into a spectrum of mathematical models, investigates the dynamics predicted by the models, and contrasts model predictions with empirical patterns. Turchin's highly instructive empirical tests demonstrate that certain models predict empirical patterns with a very high degree of accuracy. For instance, one model accounts for the recurrent waves of state breakdown in medieval and early modern Europe. And historical data confirm that ethno-nationalist solidarity produces an aggressively expansive state under certain conditions (such as in locations where imperial frontiers coincide with religious divides). The strength of Turchin's results suggests that the synthetic approach he advocates can significantly improve our understanding of historical dynamics.
258 pages, Kindle Edition
First published September 29, 2003
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Displaying 1 - 10 of 10 reviews
September 15, 2024
Amazing book. Mathematical and scientific, and highly original, with an emphasis on biological underpinnings to boot. Insane that it came out over 20 years ago now, and we've had little progress since then. And Turchin himself has mainly focused on collecting more data to verify his theories, as opposed to coming up with new theories that shift ground. This book was very influential on me and I have provided an underlying mechanism for meta-ethnic frontier theory having to do with mutational load.
February 9, 2020
Having read both War and Peace and War and Secular Cycles, scanning the ToC of this book made it clear I would be seeing the genesis of Turchin's entire cliodynamic hypothesis set all in one place. What wasn't obvious was that there's really nothing more to this than what those books present in more detail and with more confidence. It feels like this original book has been made obsolete. Turchin is an odd, terse writer by habit and only does better when he feels obliged to, which never happens in this volume. All of the interesting questions you might have for the origins of this theory are not addressed, and there's not much to speak of in terms of dead ends or alternatives that were never pursued. Probably not worth reading for anyone but a cliodynamics completist at this point. That said, if you're into the math side of things, it's possible the stuff I skimmed here is meatier than in Turchin's other books and papers. Not particularly confident that's the case though.
June 24, 2019
Definitely a niche book - the author proposes to apply mathematical formulas to historical questions of the rise and fall of agrarian states.
I was able to follow enough of the math to find it interesting, though not all of it. For the sociology, I found myself far more interested in the unstated assumptions - basically that a given state or polity seems driven to expand at the expense of neighbors; all of the theorizing is about which factors contribute to successful expansion (or unsuccessful prevention of neighboring expansion). I am still very interested in the question of WHY that is the case - what about human nature and/or the emergent behaviors of complex groups of humans makes this happen.
Regardless, quite an achievement of a book - invents a whole new way to evaluate historical hypotheses, then checks a few against it. Very cool.
I was able to follow enough of the math to find it interesting, though not all of it. For the sociology, I found myself far more interested in the unstated assumptions - basically that a given state or polity seems driven to expand at the expense of neighbors; all of the theorizing is about which factors contribute to successful expansion (or unsuccessful prevention of neighboring expansion). I am still very interested in the question of WHY that is the case - what about human nature and/or the emergent behaviors of complex groups of humans makes this happen.
Regardless, quite an achievement of a book - invents a whole new way to evaluate historical hypotheses, then checks a few against it. Very cool.
September 15, 2022
When I got interested in this book I was sure I am going to have a book similar to "Why nations fail" from a different perspective. I was expecting a modern analysis of states that exist in this century. But the book seems to have the wrong title, because a better suited one would be "Why empires rise and fall". The biggest problem of the book - it is not even trying to explain what is the meaning of a failed state and and a state in a Golden Age. So it starts on the wrong foot right from the beginning.
The book is quite unusual - using a mathematical of approach in history is new for me. But at then same time the author uses some concepts that are quite problematic to quantify and even to accept as valid - Gumileov passion theory or Abasiya are not widely accepted researchers.
At the same time I liked the formulas use by the author for the analysis of the connection between demographics and a state's evolution and religion and its influence. Although some of the conclusions are quite obvious, the grades given at the end of the book for various nations in various periods of time are quite interesting.
În conclusion this is an interesting topic, but the author fails to logically analyse all the factors influencing a state development, but advances some interesting ideas. The book style is rather "reader unfriendly", difficult to read and the concepts analyse are not arranged in a logical structure that makes the book quite challenging. To put it simply when reading the book I've got the feeling that I am reading a research paper and not a publication designed for ordinary readers interested in the topic.
The book is quite unusual - using a mathematical of approach in history is new for me. But at then same time the author uses some concepts that are quite problematic to quantify and even to accept as valid - Gumileov passion theory or Abasiya are not widely accepted researchers.
At the same time I liked the formulas use by the author for the analysis of the connection between demographics and a state's evolution and religion and its influence. Although some of the conclusions are quite obvious, the grades given at the end of the book for various nations in various periods of time are quite interesting.
În conclusion this is an interesting topic, but the author fails to logically analyse all the factors influencing a state development, but advances some interesting ideas. The book style is rather "reader unfriendly", difficult to read and the concepts analyse are not arranged in a logical structure that makes the book quite challenging. To put it simply when reading the book I've got the feeling that I am reading a research paper and not a publication designed for ordinary readers interested in the topic.
May 5, 2020
For me there are few more interesting choices in life than finding an author and a way of viewing life that changes and alters your own. Moore, Marx, Darwin and Diamond now have a new some new competition on the block in the form of Peter Turchin.
When i first read an article on International Relations that looked at the more obscure and or scientific theories that are used in trying to break down International Relations, Turchin's Historical Dynamics stood out among the rest. The article essentially described Turchin's approach as appplying Darwinian evolutionary theory to the rise and fall of states.
There may have been some hyperbole and over zealousness to the statement, but "Historical Dynamics: Why States Rise and Fall", does set a benchmark for the scientific approach to this subject area that i have not seen before.
Turchin not only approaches the subject from a Darwinian perspective, he also adds empirical, utilitarian and other more formalised mathematical and scientific aspects to a subject that i would have considered to be a pure humanitys field.
This aspect of applying a more scientific rigour to the field adds a depth of logical comprehension that only a scientifically focused mind can do. This is not say that he has deprived the humanities fields altogether. He consistently and regularly references Ibn Khaldun and his work, (sadly I have not read any of his work, but his "introduction to History", is sitting quietly in my Kindle waiting to pounce). He utilises Ibn Khaldun's phrases and word styled meanings to enhance and perfectly capture the concept that he is projecting, such as the word asabiyah, which he uses to replace tribalism and or recognisable ethnic grouping.
Turchin continually credits Khaldun and a myriad of other field specialists for their qualitative work and application of theory to the study of the concept associated with states and their sustainability. Where he makes the difference is by pushing those and other theories into a world where they can be quantified through scientific rigour, which ends up mining detailed data that has been overlooked or not taken to an eventual conclusion.
I am at the opposite end of the spectrum when compared to maths geeks, which meant I ploughed my way through the mathematical formulas and applications, and then sped through the theories and analysis of the data.
Historical Dynamics is the type of book you read after you have read about International Relations and the history of civilization in depth. Why? Because this book will take you in a direction that will open your understanding of what was hidden and more importantly what can be found when looked through a more scientific lens.
I hope you enjoy this book and its revelations as much as I did.
When i first read an article on International Relations that looked at the more obscure and or scientific theories that are used in trying to break down International Relations, Turchin's Historical Dynamics stood out among the rest. The article essentially described Turchin's approach as appplying Darwinian evolutionary theory to the rise and fall of states.
There may have been some hyperbole and over zealousness to the statement, but "Historical Dynamics: Why States Rise and Fall", does set a benchmark for the scientific approach to this subject area that i have not seen before.
Turchin not only approaches the subject from a Darwinian perspective, he also adds empirical, utilitarian and other more formalised mathematical and scientific aspects to a subject that i would have considered to be a pure humanitys field.
This aspect of applying a more scientific rigour to the field adds a depth of logical comprehension that only a scientifically focused mind can do. This is not say that he has deprived the humanities fields altogether. He consistently and regularly references Ibn Khaldun and his work, (sadly I have not read any of his work, but his "introduction to History", is sitting quietly in my Kindle waiting to pounce). He utilises Ibn Khaldun's phrases and word styled meanings to enhance and perfectly capture the concept that he is projecting, such as the word asabiyah, which he uses to replace tribalism and or recognisable ethnic grouping.
Turchin continually credits Khaldun and a myriad of other field specialists for their qualitative work and application of theory to the study of the concept associated with states and their sustainability. Where he makes the difference is by pushing those and other theories into a world where they can be quantified through scientific rigour, which ends up mining detailed data that has been overlooked or not taken to an eventual conclusion.
I am at the opposite end of the spectrum when compared to maths geeks, which meant I ploughed my way through the mathematical formulas and applications, and then sped through the theories and analysis of the data.
Historical Dynamics is the type of book you read after you have read about International Relations and the history of civilization in depth. Why? Because this book will take you in a direction that will open your understanding of what was hidden and more importantly what can be found when looked through a more scientific lens.
I hope you enjoy this book and its revelations as much as I did.
August 29, 2024
This is the first of what I would consider the three founding texts of cliodynamics, at least of Turchin's contributions (along with War and Peace and War in 2006 and Secular Cycles in 2009). The focus of this book - why agrarian polities experience recurring periods of territorial growth and decline - is somewhat more narrow than those addressed in the later of the founding texts; the mathematical theory is also, thankfully, more explicitly addressed and the beginning of the book contains a primer on dynamics which should be useful for the many historians whose mathematical knowledge is, putting it kindly, limited. The concept of order in dynamics recurs throughout the book and is maybe the most important mathematical notion for historians to be introduced to in this text, though I do not claim to be an expert.
Turchin then goes on to apply the scientific method - or something approximating it - to his line of historical enquiry, though this is somewhat complicated by the fact that most historical theories are verbal. Thus, Turchin's general methodology is to translate verbal models into mathematically explicit ones which he then tests against the data to evaluate the theories and see which fits the empirical results the best. In regard to the question of the territorial growth and decline of agrarian polities he addresses mainly the "geopolitical" model of Randall Collins (though Turchin's definition of geopolitics is clumsy), the neglected asabiyyah theory of Ibn Khaldun, the demographic-structural theory developed by Jack Goldstone in the 1990s and a set of theories focusing on ethnic assimilation including the meta-ethnic frontier theory - though it can be argued that such theories must be inherently related to asabiyyah.
The geopolitical models addressed are shown to be inadequate, largely because when translated into equations the Collins model predicts only first-order differential dynamics (feedbacks are immediate except on the increase in R, geopolitical resources, which at most simply delays territorial growth whereas the constriction of logistic loads, L, and marchland advantage, P, operate with immediate feedback). A separate model focusing on marchland advantage is subject to a spatially explicit test which shows it to be inadequate. However, Turchin's analysis of these theories is more a matter of destruction than innovation.
His address of Khaldun's theory is far more insightful, and refreshing given the ostensible neglect of Khaldun's work in the West. Khaldun's notion of "asabiyyah" is redefined by Turchin as, roughly, a society's capacity for collective action. The mathematical formulation of Khaldun's theory was fairly encouraging but, as Turchin stresses, the model is specific to the conditions of the mediaeval Maghreb - where elite polygamy significantly increases the reproduction rate of the elites.
He then moves on to address meta-ethnic frontier theories and tests several theories of "ethnokinetics". He also includes an intriguing and readable discussion of the group selection controversy in evolutionary biology (a field closer to Turchin's original area of study - ecology and zoology). Turchin constructs a 0-9 numerical index of cultural divisions to define meta-ethnic frontier theories based on differences in religion, nomadism vs sedentary living, technology and other factors and also imposes a minimum time for a "high" value of this index to be present before it can be considered a meta-ethnic frontier. The test of the meta-ethnic frontier theory is a bit simplistic, but it comes out well; the theory predicts a large quantity of empires forming on meta-ethnic frontiers, a large quantity of non-empires forming outside meta-ethnic frontier theories, a small quantity of non-empires on a meta-ethnic frontier theory (sometimes a polity will be swallowed by a more aggressive one before it can mature) and no cases of an empire forming outside a meta-ethnic frontier. Turchin's imposition of a territorial minimum to define an "empire" is a little arbitrary but some point must be chosen. The data from Europe - and there is a tendency towards eurocentrism in this book - is resoundingly in favour of the theory, except for the anomaly of the Italian empire (though it could be argued this is due to the cumulative effect of several frontiers of middling intensity and short time period which are not picked up by Turchin's model, but I digress). Turchin also explores several models of assimilation, translating them into mathematical theories, with the autocatalytic model being the clear victor. He does, however, veer dangerously close to accepting multiple esoteric theories of mixed reliability in his quest to co-opt previous ideas into his theories - including Fischer's great wave theory (reasonable, if overly general and too focused on economic variables) and Gumilev's ideas about ethnogenesis (which sound plausible until he starts talking about cosmic rays slamming the Earth and imbuing individuals with the passion and energy).
Finally, Turchin considers the demographic-structural theory but builds upon it by endogenising population (which is treated as an exogenous variable in Goldstone's model). Turchin shows that, unlike the geopolitical model, some forms of demographic-structural theory can predict sustained oscillations in the strength of polities - but here Turchin drifts somewhat from his original research question by modelling the ambiguous variable "state resources" rather than territory. The stress is on *some*, as the models do not exhibit sustained oscillations unless the right parameters are chosen, particularly the elite extinction rate in the stateless period. The theory is then applied fairly successfully to several datasets but with a particular focus on English and Chinese population dynamics. Two more detailed case studies are addressed: France and Russia. Here we begin to see Turchin fusing demographic-structural theories with ideas of ethnogenesis, proposing in each case a two-step formation of ethnies, from Franks to French and Rus to Russian respectively, with a chaotic intercycle in between.
The conclusion provides a convincing synthesis of the theories addressed and an evaluation of the progress he has made on each area, as well as laying out the three main cycles (or "wheels within wheels within wheels") addressed by cliodynamic theory: asabiyyah cycles (time scale usually many centuries), secular cycles (usually 2-3 centuries) and father and sons cycles (usually 40-60 years, or about two generations), though the focus of cliodynamics currently appears to be on secular cycles.
Turchin's work is fairly readable, even if the mathematics is a little opaque at times, and is certainly not long. Sometimes Turchin takes the reader through the maths and sometimes he "banishes" it to the appendix, which can be frustrating but is probably for the benefit of some readers. Either way the book is filled with a series of clear and beautifully drawn graphs, and I can say with some confidence that this text is a hearty push towards history becoming a mature field, a science.
Turchin then goes on to apply the scientific method - or something approximating it - to his line of historical enquiry, though this is somewhat complicated by the fact that most historical theories are verbal. Thus, Turchin's general methodology is to translate verbal models into mathematically explicit ones which he then tests against the data to evaluate the theories and see which fits the empirical results the best. In regard to the question of the territorial growth and decline of agrarian polities he addresses mainly the "geopolitical" model of Randall Collins (though Turchin's definition of geopolitics is clumsy), the neglected asabiyyah theory of Ibn Khaldun, the demographic-structural theory developed by Jack Goldstone in the 1990s and a set of theories focusing on ethnic assimilation including the meta-ethnic frontier theory - though it can be argued that such theories must be inherently related to asabiyyah.
The geopolitical models addressed are shown to be inadequate, largely because when translated into equations the Collins model predicts only first-order differential dynamics (feedbacks are immediate except on the increase in R, geopolitical resources, which at most simply delays territorial growth whereas the constriction of logistic loads, L, and marchland advantage, P, operate with immediate feedback). A separate model focusing on marchland advantage is subject to a spatially explicit test which shows it to be inadequate. However, Turchin's analysis of these theories is more a matter of destruction than innovation.
His address of Khaldun's theory is far more insightful, and refreshing given the ostensible neglect of Khaldun's work in the West. Khaldun's notion of "asabiyyah" is redefined by Turchin as, roughly, a society's capacity for collective action. The mathematical formulation of Khaldun's theory was fairly encouraging but, as Turchin stresses, the model is specific to the conditions of the mediaeval Maghreb - where elite polygamy significantly increases the reproduction rate of the elites.
He then moves on to address meta-ethnic frontier theories and tests several theories of "ethnokinetics". He also includes an intriguing and readable discussion of the group selection controversy in evolutionary biology (a field closer to Turchin's original area of study - ecology and zoology). Turchin constructs a 0-9 numerical index of cultural divisions to define meta-ethnic frontier theories based on differences in religion, nomadism vs sedentary living, technology and other factors and also imposes a minimum time for a "high" value of this index to be present before it can be considered a meta-ethnic frontier. The test of the meta-ethnic frontier theory is a bit simplistic, but it comes out well; the theory predicts a large quantity of empires forming on meta-ethnic frontiers, a large quantity of non-empires forming outside meta-ethnic frontier theories, a small quantity of non-empires on a meta-ethnic frontier theory (sometimes a polity will be swallowed by a more aggressive one before it can mature) and no cases of an empire forming outside a meta-ethnic frontier. Turchin's imposition of a territorial minimum to define an "empire" is a little arbitrary but some point must be chosen. The data from Europe - and there is a tendency towards eurocentrism in this book - is resoundingly in favour of the theory, except for the anomaly of the Italian empire (though it could be argued this is due to the cumulative effect of several frontiers of middling intensity and short time period which are not picked up by Turchin's model, but I digress). Turchin also explores several models of assimilation, translating them into mathematical theories, with the autocatalytic model being the clear victor. He does, however, veer dangerously close to accepting multiple esoteric theories of mixed reliability in his quest to co-opt previous ideas into his theories - including Fischer's great wave theory (reasonable, if overly general and too focused on economic variables) and Gumilev's ideas about ethnogenesis (which sound plausible until he starts talking about cosmic rays slamming the Earth and imbuing individuals with the passion and energy).
Finally, Turchin considers the demographic-structural theory but builds upon it by endogenising population (which is treated as an exogenous variable in Goldstone's model). Turchin shows that, unlike the geopolitical model, some forms of demographic-structural theory can predict sustained oscillations in the strength of polities - but here Turchin drifts somewhat from his original research question by modelling the ambiguous variable "state resources" rather than territory. The stress is on *some*, as the models do not exhibit sustained oscillations unless the right parameters are chosen, particularly the elite extinction rate in the stateless period. The theory is then applied fairly successfully to several datasets but with a particular focus on English and Chinese population dynamics. Two more detailed case studies are addressed: France and Russia. Here we begin to see Turchin fusing demographic-structural theories with ideas of ethnogenesis, proposing in each case a two-step formation of ethnies, from Franks to French and Rus to Russian respectively, with a chaotic intercycle in between.
The conclusion provides a convincing synthesis of the theories addressed and an evaluation of the progress he has made on each area, as well as laying out the three main cycles (or "wheels within wheels within wheels") addressed by cliodynamic theory: asabiyyah cycles (time scale usually many centuries), secular cycles (usually 2-3 centuries) and father and sons cycles (usually 40-60 years, or about two generations), though the focus of cliodynamics currently appears to be on secular cycles.
Turchin's work is fairly readable, even if the mathematics is a little opaque at times, and is certainly not long. Sometimes Turchin takes the reader through the maths and sometimes he "banishes" it to the appendix, which can be frustrating but is probably for the benefit of some readers. Either way the book is filled with a series of clear and beautifully drawn graphs, and I can say with some confidence that this text is a hearty push towards history becoming a mature field, a science.
October 23, 2020
After 6 years working in CS departments, it was a joy to have the world view in a long form book. There are some interesting thoughts patterns and ideas but it's so hard to follow because every piece of evidence seems to confirm the theory. I couldn't tell the predictive power from the inevitable from the tautological.
February 14, 2018
Fascinating book. Peter Turchin developed the field of Cliodynamics.
February 8, 2021
If you are mathematically minded and interested in history, this is a must read.
Turchin brings the ecological modeling methods to bear on this vital question: why do states rise and fall? He explores several models that explain this, applicable in different circumstances.
Though the academic literature has moved on, this is an accessible way in for anyone studying a quantitative degree or above.
Turchin brings the ecological modeling methods to bear on this vital question: why do states rise and fall? He explores several models that explain this, applicable in different circumstances.
Though the academic literature has moved on, this is an accessible way in for anyone studying a quantitative degree or above.
June 4, 2025
Much better than his latest books but more difficult to read as well. First, Turchin's theory is much more applicable to premodern societies where resources and elite positions are more scarce. Second, here Turchin tries to formalize and quantify ethnic solidarity as a factor affecting historical dynamics. If I'm not mistaken, these two dimensions are nearly absent from his books on the US history.
Displaying 1 - 10 of 10 reviews