Powerdown: Options and Actions for a Post-Carbon World

by Richard Heinberg

If the US continues with its current policies, the next decades will be marked by war, economic collapse, and environmental catastrophe. Resource depletion and population pressures are about to catch up with us, and no one is prepared. The political elites, especially in the US, are incapable of dealing with the situation and have in mind a punishing game of “Last One Standing.” The alternative is “Powerdown,” a strategy that will require tremendous effort and economic sacrifice in order to reduce per-capita resource usage in wealthy countries, develop alternative energy sources, distribute resources more equitably, and reduce the human population humanely but systematically over time. While civil society organizations push for a mild version of this, the vast majority of the world’s people are in the dark, not understanding the challenges ahead, nor the options realistically available. Powerdown speaks frankly to these dilemmas. Avoiding cynicism and despair, it begins with an overview of the likely impacts of oil and natural gas depletion and then outlines four options for industrial societies during the next Last One the path of competition for remaining resources;
the path of cooperation, conservation and sharing;
Waiting for a Magic wishful thinking, false hopes, and denial;
Building the path of community solidarity and preservation. Finally, the book explores how three important groups within global society—the power elites, the opposition to the elites (the antiwar and antiglobalization movements, et the “Other Superpower”), and ordinary people—are likely to respond to these four options. Timely, accessible and eloquent, Powerdown is crucial reading for our times. Richard Heinberg is an award-winning author of five previous books, including The Party’s Oil, War and the Fate of Industrial Societies . A member of the Core Faculty of New College of California, he lives in Santa Rosa, California.

Genres: Nonfiction, Environment, Politics, Peak Oil, Ecology, Science, Technology

209 pages, Paperback

First published September 1, 2004

About the author

Richard William Heinberg is an American journalist and educator who has written extensively on energy, economic, and ecological issues, including oil depletion. He is the author of 13 books, and presently serves as the senior fellow at the Post Carbon Institute.

Reviews

[Michael · Rating 3 out of 5]

Heinberg's prognostications about the likely trajectory of industrial society are probably reasonably accurate. His analysis of the problems (over-population and resource depletion) is also accurate. But for a book that claims to propose "options and actions for a post-carbon world," there is actually very little content toward that end.

Mostly, Heinberg just suggests that we fess up to our true challenges (again, over-population & resource depletion), stop looking for technology to save us, and begin developing infrastructure that can sustain a reasonable human populations with a reasonable quality of life.

Good idea. But then again, I was already on board for that. What this book really lacks is a call to action to invest time, energy, and money in specific societal re-organization efforts. I would like to have known the author's thoughts on the best uses of our labor and resources.

He doesn't seem quite to have hashed that out yet. But he does, at least, suggest some individuals and small groups who have.

[Aron · Rating 3 out of 5]

Powerdown was good, but it had a lot to live up to after The Party's Over. After finishing this book I felt slightly more informed, but really very little different than before I'd read it. I did come away with a solid list of references and books to add to my to-read list, but that's not a great argument for recommending this particular book. On a side note, Heinberg's super-liberal political viewpoint is much more apparent in this work, and while I tend to agree with him, I think that that aspect of the book will impede some people from listening to his message.

This essentially takes up where The Party's Over left off with a brief summary of that former work. Heinberg then lays out what he calls the "four principal options" available to industrial societies for dealing with the imminent resource depletion scenario.

1)Last One Standing: competition for the remaining resources (read: strategic wars)
2)Powerdown: international effort towards reducing both per-capita resource usage and total population
3)Waiting for a Magic Elixir: wishful thinking without action
4)Building Lifeboats: small groups attempt to preserve "cultural achievements" while society collapses around them

He posits that the current economic and political systems will have societies tending toward a combination of options 1 and 3, while our only real hope is to strive for option 2. Since that's basically not going to happen (unless a lot of other things change first), he argues that it may be beneficial to begin pursuing the fourth option.

I enjoyed this enough to continue reading his books, but I'd probably only recommend this one to people who really liked The Party's Over.

[Charles · Rating 5 out of 5]

Heinberg's follow-up to The Party's Over includes a brief summary of his previous book as well as in-depth analysis, commentary, and opinion about the prospects for globalized society over the next century and more, given the imminent demise of cheap oil and other sources of energy. Where The Party's Over was measured and restrained, in Power Down, Heinberg takes a stauncher, harder, more morally-charged stance as he stares down the abyss of waning industrialism and its legacy of destruction and consumption. While some disgust and rage at the extent of ignorance that has created and continues to perpetuate the ecological crisis (holocaust?) certainly leaks through, Heinberg also maintains a constructive, positive perspective throughout the book, even when dealing with nightmare scenarios and realities. Overall, the book is a hard look at the legacies of speculative and growth-oriented economics; at globalization, industrialization, and overpopulation.

[Paula · Rating 4 out of 5]

I've read four of Heinberg's books. They are all well-written and give good information about the coming global crisis and how we can best prepare for it. Unlike many writers who seem to repeat the same basic ideas from book to book, I think Heinberg does a good job of making each of his books unique. The Party's Over outlines the inevitability of Peak Oil, and the dangers it poses for the economy, for the environment, and for relations between nations. The End of Growth focuses primarily on the economic side, including the looming threat of collapse of the US dollar. While it briefly mentions peak oil, it presents new material that was not in the previous book. Our Renewable Future focuses on the possibilities of transitioning from a petroleum dependence to alternative fuels. It shows which are viable, and which are not. It also makes clear why we must be prepared to face a world in which less energy will be available. This book (Powerdown) outlines the possible responses that government, NGOs and individuals may be making now and how they will impact the future. I think if there is a flaw in it, I believe it is that he does not talk enough about community responses. Maybe in his next book, Heinberg can show us how Transition Towns are facing the future squarely, and how communities can do a better job of preparing for the inevitable.

[Drkazmd65 · Rating 3 out of 5]

A reread actually. I first read this book about 15 years ago. Mostly read it to see how effective the author's predictions were. He got several things pretty much completely correct,....

However, his 'doom and gloom' about running out of oil and natural gas didn't take the fracking technology into account, and so while I think his general ideas are still going to generally play out, they are playing out in much slower motion than he projected back in the early 2000's.

[Marcus Goncalves · Rating 3 out of 5]

Overall, I great read, as the author summarizes the literature on oil depletion and fuel shortages, but then branches out into imagined political outcomes that I find very far fetched and without scientific base, such as global population down to 3.8 billion...

[Nicole · Rating 4 out of 5]

A good follow up to The Partys Over.

[Kip · Rating 4 out of 5]

Very thought-provoking and almost scary book. Premise, as suggested by the title, is that life in 100 years will be very, very different. Extremely limited or no availability for heating fuel, transportation fuel, electricity, or really any of the products and services we take for granted today.

He goes further though, with an underlying premise that there are simply too many people on the planet consuming finite and irreplaceable resources. Not just carbon, but water, food and other basics. So not only will civilization tumble and society return to levels not seen since pre-industrial revolution days, there will be far fewer people around to live in that new world.

Like I said, thought-provoking and sort of scary. He's obviously a liberal academic, so be ready for that flavor in the writing. He offers a few proposals or suggerstions (again as the title implies) but debunks most of them. His strategy of "powerdown" where all the world's politicians and businesses work together for the good of the species reads more like fantasy than non-fiction. His strategy of "lifeboats" or building self-sustaining, small communities replete with scattered enclaves of intelligentsia keeping the knowledge and wisdom of the past alive reads like science fiction.

Four Stars

* Couldn't finish
** I had nothing else to do
*** Passed the time, would be **** for genre / author fans
**** Everyone could enjoy this book
***** Everyone should read this book, I'll read it again

[Matthew Petti · Rating 4 out of 5]

Richard Heinberg's 2004 book centers on the subject of "Peak Oil", when demand, fueled by population growth, rising development in third-world countries and resource depletion collide to bring about war, economic collapse and environmental ruin or, if we are wise enough, a global conviction and determination to reduce and contract to save ourselves from our won demise.

He points out 4 distinct options that will confront us soon and only by proper level-headed choices will we survive. His approach to the solutions are reasonable in that they require going back to the days of self-supporting communities as in the days of our forefathers. Power Down is defined, in his view, by cooperation, conservation and sharing. I think it's more timely now than when it was written!

[Donald Shank · Rating 5 out of 5]

We are at or near the peak of world oil production, and there is no "magic pill" to save us. No other resource, or combination of resources, can deliver the energy budget that oil has. We can not sustain our level of consumption, and will have to invent economies that are smaller in scale, very localized and reliant on things that are sustainable rather than consumptive. We'll simply have to make do with art, science, music, literature, theatre, hiking, canoeing, organic food, lots of time to create and recreate, ride trains, visit with friends and family...some would say that's a sacrifice. I think it means our species is maturing, finally. Heinberg's "Power Down" and "The Party's Over" are a view into an ultimately hopeful future.

[Peter · Rating 3 out of 5]

From the cover:
Power-down n 1: the energy famine that engulfed industrial nations in the early 21st century; 2: the deliberate process of contraction and conversion that enabled survival ...
Yet another forecast of doom! As we encounter peak oil and its aftermath. But Heinberg at least indicates some options for individual, community and even humanity's survival.
He elaborates of what he sees as four options:
1) Last One Standing - competition (war) for remaining resources
2) Power-down - deliberate cooperation, conservation and sharing
3) Waiting for the magic elixir - hydrogen, fuel cells, solar, wind etc.
4) Building lifeboats - community solidarity and preservation.

[Alison · Rating 3 out of 5]

Sensationalistic and antagonistic, with a lot of blame-placing and less solution-proposing. Also, the sources listed in the notes are hard to find and far from the mainstream. I don't necessarily disagree with the author on the bulk of his ideas, but I wouldn't recommend this book to anyone, especially if I were trying to actively convince them that peak oil is something to be worried about. At the moment, I would offer them James Howard Kunstler's The Long Emergency instead; it doesn't offer that many solutions, either, and wraps up in a rather gloomy way, but at least it's more measured in its analysis of how we reached this point.

[Julia · Rating 3 out of 5]

A somewhat depressing description of what could happen to the world if we don't find an alternative to oil pdq. In fact, the author thinks there is no alternative energy source to take oil's place. (I'm still holding out hope.) And that we will run out of oil sooner than we are willing to admit.

The post-oil scenarios he describes range from grim to apocalyptic. This book is not light reading, but it provides some thoughtful analysis as to where we could be heading, and how to make the best of a very different world after the oil runs out.

[Melinda · Rating 4 out of 5]

An excellent overview of what resource depletion and population pressure mean for industrial civilization, without any rose-colored glasses. Richard Heinberg gives a balanced analysis of how political power and environmental/social justice movements work, which is a very useful framework for understanding why things are the way they are and how these groups will react in the future. The book is accessible and compelling, and at under 200 pages (with the endnotes and bibliography), it manages to hit all the major points in articulate, concise prose.

[Alex · Rating 4 out of 5]

heinberg's follow-up to the party's over. he outlined four basic "strategies" for dealing with peak oil. not exactly the way economy/society/culture change and move, showing heinberg's weaknesses in terms of politics. however, he shows a growing mastery of the peak oil subject and its implications. read the party's over first.

[Erin · Rating 4 out of 5]

This book provides three potential responses our nation can take to address the economic hardships resulting from Peak Oil. It demonstrates that two of those responses will fail miserably, and the only viable option is to act NOW. Heinberg explains how we will need to restructure our economy in a post-carbon world, which will ultimately cause globalization to fail.

[Martin Streetman · Rating 3 out of 5]

Another book I read because of that Kyle Mills book Darkness Falls. This is not a book you should read if you believe everything you read. I thougt it was well written but it is real end of life as we know it type stuff. Very scarry if you let it be. I think the changes are comming just hope they are not as dark as Heinberg visions.

[Mark · Rating 5 out of 5]

Heinberg understands "peak oil." Four chapters give four different plausible scenarios for dealing with the decline in cheap energy.

This is a great book for people to read and discuss in groups. Whether or not any of the scenarios are likely, they are plausible enough to generate a lot of good conversation on what kind of future we really want.

[Mecala · Rating 5 out of 5]

Must read!

Powerdown is about how oil is going drastically down and all our other resources are as well. How we as Americans are living and what kind of society we are brewing. Very hard hitting and yet scary because we could face famine and chaos and soon death by nuclear weapons. War is always about resources and it is an eye-opener for sure.

[Mel · Rating 3 out of 5]

Though this was written a few years ago already, it is thought-provoking. It addresses the issues of oil depletion and rising population growth and what could possibly happen as a result. Everyone needs to be aware of their environment, and Heinberg offers some viable strategies to this dilemma.

[Jennifer Miera · Rating 3 out of 5]

Nothing I haven't read before in more current books. The author tries to take a positive slant on the impending disasters, like "building lifeboats," but it fell a bit flat for me. I'm not convinced that he believes humanity will survive peak oil and global warming.

[Kevin & Meagan · Rating 4 out of 5]

Not sure if I totally agree with the author, but the author brings up a lot of good points. Our supply of oil is going down, not up. We need alternatives. Our entire culture is based on movement... flight, driving, shipping... what happens as our fuel source becomes more harder to find?

[Tommy · Rating 3 out of 5]

Heinberg is better in his earlier works.

[Commonground · Rating 5 out of 5]

Get ready, friends.

[Scott Marlow · Rating 4 out of 5]

A more digestible version of James Howard Kunstler's The Long Emergency. If you are concerned about the looming energy crisis and want to learn how to cope post-Peak Oil, this is a good read.

[Jeff · Rating 2 out of 5]

This book isn't horrible. I recommend reading The Party is Over instead, which has most of the pertinent information in this book and much more.

[Shelly O'grady · Rating 5 out of 5]

This is were it all began for me! The most important/alarming book I have read.

[Antonio · Rating 5 out of 5]

Where will you be when the oil runs out? Too much people consuming ALL the available resources will lead us inevitably to catastrophe.

[Stephan]

Chapter 6 of the book can be read here.

[Alexandra Deboer · Rating 3 out of 5]

Well researched explanation of why we are having a planetary energy crisis. I had hoped for more inspiration for individual actions to mitigate the pain of collapse.