How we make decisions and judgments is what the book explores. Fear consensus, love dissent, because a consensus position can sway us even when it’s wrong, and the facts are in front of us. The author points out the following:
• We make poorer decisions and think less creatively when we adopt the majority perspective.
• Persuasion by a dissenter is more indirect, and it broadens our thinking, considering more options, info, and strategies. For these reasons, dissent has value, even when it’s wrong, or even when it doesn’t sway us. It stimulates our thinking.
• The benefits of dissent don’t derive from a diversity of demographics (age, gender, race) but rather thought. Demographic diversity does not ensure diversity of perspective. Diversity on such basis can lower morale and bonding, and create “we/they” divides. IDEO searches for diversity of skill and knowledge rather than readily observable demographics.
• To have value, dissent must be expressed. Perhaps this is why conservatives and climate change skeptics reside in think tanks and not universities?
• The most important element of effective dissent is authenticity. The dissenter has to be truly attached to his views, which is why the Devil’s advocate (pretend dissent) is not an effective strategy. It’s also why, when brainstorming, rules such as “do not criticize each other’s ideas” are ill advised. But criticism isn’t the same as dissent, but both can generate creative ideas.
• Even the Roman Catholic Church has started to embrace authentic dissent, abandoning its reliance on the devil’s advocate method (Christopher Hitchens was sought for his contrarian views on Mother Theresa—she’s a friend of poverty, not of the poor)—before her sainthood.
• Accuracy is more likely found in numbers if the judgment is a matter of common knowledge (the wisdom of crowds theory). But an expert in chemistry is more likely to know the name of Glen Seaborg than a dozen laypeople. Herding behavior, stock bubbles, etc., demonstrate many people doing the same thing is not necessarily an indication of their accuracy or good judgment. The truth is no protection against the majority.
• Two main reasons people follow the majority: 1) assumption that truth lies in numbers; and 2) the desire to belong, or a fear of being different and of inviting ridicule or punishment (pricing consultants who think you can hold onto timesheets and refuse to take on the issue, this is you!).
• If you deviate from the crowd, you lose reputation whether you succeed or fail. If you’re right, you’re rash. If you’re wrong, you’ll be vilified.
• Dissenters are rarely liked, reactions ranging from irritation to ridicule or even put to death (Jesus). The likability factor is not the basis for the ability to change minds. I rather be right than liked.
• The dissenter has to be consistent in his position. It’s necessary, but often not sufficient. Consistency is more effective than compromise in changing minds.
• Dissenters change minds more in private than in public. They have a “hidden influence.”
• The movie Twelve Angry Men illustrates the value and power of even one dissenter.
• On balance, consensus is an impediment while dissent is a benefit.
• Training is not very effective in combatting biases.
• Groups often “strains” for consensus, a term that Irving Janis used to describe “groupthink.”
• When people share a leaning and discuss their views, they become more extreme in that direction.
• Try not to be a “directed leader,” invite dissent, as JFK learned between the Bay of Pigs and the Cuban Missile Crisis.
• Dissenters may provoke anger, but they are no expressing anger.
• The emphasis is not to create dissent but to permit it.
• Eric Hoffer: The beginning of thought is in disagreement—not only with others but also with ourselves.”
• Mark Twain: “Whenever you find that you are on the side of the majority, it is time to pause and reflect.”
Consensus, while comforting, often leads us to make bad decisions. Dissent, while annoying, is precisely the challenge we need to reassess our own views and make better choices. Perhaps it’s good that science progresses by dissent, and not consensus. Dissent is a liberator.
The book is repetitive in many places, but the message is vital. It deserves 3.5 stars, and is worth reading, especially if you find yourself swimming against the tide.