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Time Predictions: Understanding and Avoiding Unrealism in Project Planning and Everyday Life
This book is published open access under a CC BY 4.0 license.
Predicting the time needed to complete a project, task or daily activity can be difficult and people frequently underestimate how long an activity will take. This book sheds light on why and when this happens, what we should do to avoid it and how to give more realistic time predictions. It describes existing and proposes new methods for predicting time usage in situations with high uncertainty, explains why two plus two is usually more than four in time prediction contexts, reports on research on time prediction biases, and summarizes the evidence in support of different time prediction methods and principles. Based on a comprehensive review of the research, it is the first book summarizing what we know about judgment-based time predictions.
Large parts of the book are directed toward people wishing to achieve more realistic time predictions in their professional life, such as project managers, graphic designers, architects, engineers, film producers, consultants, software developers, or anyone else in need of realistic time usage predictions. It is also of benefit to those with a general interest in judgment and decision-making or those who want to improve their ability to predict and plan ahead in daily life.
Predicting the time needed to complete a project, task or daily activity can be difficult and people frequently underestimate how long an activity will take. This book sheds light on why and when this happens, what we should do to avoid it and how to give more realistic time predictions. It describes existing and proposes new methods for predicting time usage in situations with high uncertainty, explains why two plus two is usually more than four in time prediction contexts, reports on research on time prediction biases, and summarizes the evidence in support of different time prediction methods and principles. Based on a comprehensive review of the research, it is the first book summarizing what we know about judgment-based time predictions.
Large parts of the book are directed toward people wishing to achieve more realistic time predictions in their professional life, such as project managers, graphic designers, architects, engineers, film producers, consultants, software developers, or anyone else in need of realistic time usage predictions. It is also of benefit to those with a general interest in judgment and decision-making or those who want to improve their ability to predict and plan ahead in daily life.
- GenresNonfiction
110 pages, Kindle Edition
Published February 28, 2018
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82 people want to read
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Displaying 1 - 4 of 4 reviews
August 27, 2020
Very clear, concise, and insightful. The summaries are very helpful.
January 1, 2020
A+
A very technical and thoroughly researched approach to explaining why it is so hard for humans to effectively estimate time use. It's a shame they can't help us be more successful at it.
A very technical and thoroughly researched approach to explaining why it is so hard for humans to effectively estimate time use. It's a shame they can't help us be more successful at it.
October 24, 2020
Exactly What It Promised To Be
The book is a play by play of different ways to gather time predictions, exploring the ways that lead to optimistic estimates vs pessimistic estimates.
The book is a play by play of different ways to gather time predictions, exploring the ways that lead to optimistic estimates vs pessimistic estimates.
April 2, 2018
Lit
Cool stuff really I enjoyed so muggy
Really loved I I I I I I I I I I I
Cool stuff really I enjoyed so muggy
Really loved I I I I I I I I I I I
Displaying 1 - 4 of 4 reviews