All the world’s a stage. Strategy is not a science but an art.
Introduction. Analysis. Critiques. Final Thoughts.
Logistics: I am breaking this review into two parts. First (below) is an examination of the historical, military, and political trends. Part II will focus on strategy in the business world. I may or may not publish that one.
Introduction
If you think 600 plus incredibly well researched pages on strategy will unlock “the secret,” the algorithm, or even an agreed upon definition of strategy, think again. Rather, like most nebulous concepts we humans put into action, there is a long history of people just figuring it out and plain making it up along the way. Strategy has usually been loosely defined, but it began to be a formal study in the military. It remained a military field for the majority of human history, only within the last 200 years trickling into the realms of politics, propaganda and mass media, business, and in watered down format everything.
Analysis
So what exactly is strategy? There are hundreds of definitions, but I like the author’s definition of “the art of creating power.” It’s the best attempt to optimally organize an attempt to achieve a desired end state. It involves system 2 thinking (the rider of logical thought) in terms of assessing the current state (counting your resources and building coalitions) and anticipating problems and formulizing plans. It also involves a great deal of system 1 thinking (the elephant of intuitive, emotional thinking) in terms of motiving others and sensing the right thing to do.
What are strategies limitations? For one thing, there’s no clean definition. Probably what matters more than creating one definition is coming to a common understanding within the in group of what strategy means for the group. Next, and this is the part that was most surprising to me personally, it’s more art than science. Crunch the numbers all you want, and let’s watch when a start up announces their AI bot has figured out strategy because you know that’s coming, but ultimately everything is uncertain. Strategy is about planning but it’s also about responding to circumstances as they arise and finally just telling a story that helps make sense of it all.
When I say making it up, I mean pure invention. The first real field of this was propaganda, which turned into marketing. As strategy seeped into the business world we never stop to think notions we hold as corporate doctrine were invented by a bunch of English majors in the early 1900s with pretty much zero evidence. Data is king was invented by the Ford Foundation and RAND Corporation post WWIII using evidence that is as strong as tissue paper. Business schools were founded to promote obedience among workers. Human Resources as a field came from the study of how to increase the productivity of workers through observation. Marketing evolved from war time propaganda. It’s fascinating how we just take it all for granted and assume it’s the best way to do things.
Critiques
The text isn’t completely linear. You’ll follow a narrative from WWI, into WWII, RAND into Schelling into John F. Kennedy and then jump back in the next chapter to guerrilla warfare in the 1800s. Iraq and Afghanistan war, back to Karl Marx. That can seem frustrating, but the author chooses to trace lines of thought rather than stick to the calendar, reuniting narratives in interesting ways. In this way you look more closely at one line of thought instead of bouncing from discipline to discipline in the 1800 and 1900s.
Second, and this is more of a warning than a criticism, when you start to get into military theory, it’s not exactly like watching puppy videos. Though it’s unsettling, I think it’s important to be familiar with the concept of War in the Fourth Generation. The “nobility” or unspoken norm of limiting battle to the battlefield and military targets belongs to a different time. “The new generation began in the moral and cognitive spheres, where even physically stronger entities could be victims of shock, disorientation, and loss of confidence and coherence. This principle was then applied to society as a whole.” 225 Not to sound fatalistic, but this is why terrorism and cyber warfare are a part of life. Forget not the caveman inside of us.
If anything, our steadfast faith in data, numbers, and charming people articulating plans demonstrates how powerful the concept of strategy. We’re programed for it. We needed it to get to where we are today, we need it to make sense of the rank and file nature of modern life, and we’ll need it to guide people to wherever we’re heading. The final chapter compares a strategist to a writer and says the only difference is a playwright can choose to write a comedy or a tragedy whereas a strategist looks ahead and writes a plan he hopes doesn’t turn into a tragedy. All the world’s a stage, including the world of cubicles and strategy. It takes over 600 pages of well presented and documented stories for the author to earn the right to say that. Brilliant book.
Quotes
Everyone has a plan till they get punched in the mouth. –Mike Tyson.
From the study of [early hominid] societies and those of chimps we can identify some of the elemental features of strategic behavior. [Social structures that invite conflict…individuals who are potential opponents or allies…empathy...not depending solely on violence but the ability to form coalitions. 9
[The Bible has interesting points about the seeds of strategy. The serpent uses craftiness and deception to convince Adam and Eve.] The Ten Plagues as strategic coercion...the strategy, a standard form of coercion involving a progressive “turning of the screw” in an attempt to fid the target’s threshold of pain, led to regular promises of compliance upon which Pharaoh equally regularly reneged. [The patterns are described on page 15, nuisances, pain, dread. Escalating attacks. Surprises in every third plague. 13
There is however, a more intriguing explanation: Pharaoh was set up…God needed an obstinate Pharaoh because the only way he could demonstrate the full range of his power, and its superiority over all other powers on earth, was to put on the most awesome display. 16
[Greek vs. Roman depictions of the Hellenic Wars] From Homer came the contrasting qualities, represented respectively by Achilles and Odysseus, of bie and metis (strength and cunning), which over time – for example, in Machiavelli – came to be represented as force and guile. This polarity continued to find expression in strategic literature. 23
*Metis described a particular notion of strategic intelligence for which there is no obvious English equivalent. In Greek it was related to metiao “to consider, mediate, plan,” together with metioomai, “to contrive,” conveyed a sense of a capacity to think ahead, attend to detail, grasp how others think and behave, and possess a general resourcefulness. But it could also convey deception and trickery, capturing the moral ambivalence around a quality so essential to the strategist’s art. 23
*Rather than seeing reason and passion in opposition, practical intelligence was about finding the appropriate relations between competing ends, each with an associated bundle of passions and reasons. Odysseus’ understanding of how others viewed the world allowed him to manipulate their thought processes by giving out signs that he knew they would read in a particular way…Metis was forward-looking, with elements of anticipation and planning, as well as guile and trickery. 28
Machiavelli – The underlying assumption was that if you sought to be virtuous in both word and deed you would need suffer badly...This negative view of human nature was central to Machiavelli’s approach. 52
[Post-Napoleon military planning there emerged two main camps – Jomini and Clausewitz.] Jomini – strategy was the sphere of activity between the political, where decisions were made about who to fight, and the tactical, which was the sphere of actual combat. 84
*Clausewitz mature thought, that war was shaped by a remarkable trinity – composed of primordial violence, hatred, and enmity, which are to be regarded as a blind natural force; of the play of chance and probability within which the creative spirit is free to roam; and of its element of subordination, as an instrument of policy, which makes [war] subject to reason alone. 87
Subordination and Irrationality: The miseries and privations associated with the Napoleonic Wars led to the development of an international peace movement…War was denounced as not only uncivilized, wasteful, and destructive, but also fundamentally irrational…The factor that had so stunned Clausewitz during his early military career, a force that “beggared all imagination.” The French Revolution had brought the people, with all their passion and fervor, to the fore. Napoleon had turned this into a source of his power…the people and the army convinced of an inextricable, patriotic link between their own well-being and the success of the state. [In other words, subordination can be achieved through motivation, not just punishment] 97
WWI- The intention was to realize the potential of a new technology – the tank on the ground or the airplane in the air – to break the will of the enemy. In both cases the presumed impact of the new weaponry was assumed to be psychological as much as physical. The aim was to cause what would in effect be a collective nervous breakdown on the enemy side. This directly challenged the assumption that a decisive victory had to involve the annihilation of the enemy army. 124
WWII – The nuclear bomb changes everything. The idea that the resolution of strategic problems depended on intellect and analysis rather than character and intuition fit into with the trend to subject all human decisions to the dictates of rationality and the application of science. 147
*The steady improvements in computational power made mathematical approaches to complex problems more practical…Quantitative analysis grew in strength and credibility. It is hard to overstate the importance of RAND, especially during its early years in transforming established patterns of thought not only in the military sphere but throughout the social sciences. The resources and tools it had available, including the most advanced computers of the day, provided it with a capacity to innovate, which it did with a remarkable sense of might and confidence…RAND analysts saw these new methods as supplanting rather than supplementing traditional patterns of thought. 148
Thomas Shelling – the theorist who did more than any other to explore the conundrums of deterrence and nuclear strategy…Schilling started with the special features of a game of strategy, compared with those of chance or skill: “Each player’s best choice depends on the action he expects the other to take, which he knows depends, in turn, on the other’s expectations of his own.” Strategy was all about interdependence, “the conditioning of one’s behavior on the behavior of others.”…on this basis the role of force could be rethought...in setting up an alternative to brute force, Shelling made one of his most startling assertions: “In addition to weakening an enemy militarily it can cause an enemy plain suffering.”…contrary to prevailing views – and established international law, for that matter – that stressed the importance of avoiding unnecessary suffering, Schelling claimed that the ability to hurt was “among the most impressive attributes of military force.” 163
Colonel John Boyd, an American fighter pilot with experience going back to the Korean War, wrote the definitive manual on the subject. As he did so he hit upon an insight which he developed into a formula of considerable influence…the key quality was not absolute speed but agility. Boyd summed this all up as the “OODA loop.” OODA stands for observation, orientation, decision, action. The sequence started with observation, as data concerning the environment was collected. This was analyzed in the orientation stage, leading to a decision and then to the execution of an action. The loop because the action changes the environment, which required that the process be repeated. 196
*” Fourth-generation warfare.” Like the RMA, this framework had parentage in OODA loops and maneuver warfare, but it had taken a quite different turn, away from regular war. Its origins lay in an article by a group led by William Lind, a follower of Boyd and energetic reformer. According to this scheme, the first three generations had developed in response to one another (line and column, massed firepower, and then blitzkrieg). The new generation began in the moral and cognitive spheres, where even physically strong entities could be victims of shock, disorientation, and loss of confidence and coherence. This principle was then applied to society as a whole. In the fourth generation, attacks would be directed at the sources of social cohesion, including shared norms and values, economic management, and institution structures. This was a move from the artificial operational level to a form of upside-down grand strategy, brining in questions of rival ideologies and ways of life, and forms of conflict that might not actually involve much fighting. 225
[America’s involvement in Afghanistan and Iraq post the dramatic “Mission Accomplished” moment] Yet in an apparent war of narratives the United States was on the defensive, preoccupied with challenging another’s message rather than promoting their own. Attempts were made to fashion nationally attractive communications rather than promoting their own. Attempts were made to fashion notionally attractive communications without being sure how they were received…People filtered out what they did and did not trust or what they found irrelevant, or they picked up odd fragments and variants of the core message, interpreting and synthesizing them according to their own prejudices and frameworks…There might be a group of professionals working under the label of information operations, but the audience could take their cues from whatever caught their attention. 234
[Marxism] It was one thing to develop an intellectually consistent narrative to explore how the revolution could work itself through to the desired outcomes, quite another to follow its lines when the moment for a revolution came. 251
“There can be only one permanent revolution – a moral one: the regeneration of the inner man.” –Tolstoy 310
John Dewey – What he sought from philosophy was not a “device for dealing with the problems of philosophers” but instead “a method, cultivated, by philosophers, for dealing with the problems of men.” It was to offer a challenge to conservatism and an alternative to revolution. The radicals and conservatives needed to be brought together...This created a special role for the social reformer. As “psychologist, social worker, and educator,” this person had to “interpret opposing sides to each other, simultaneously reconciling social antagonists and completing the incomplete personalities of individuals involved.” 316
* Antonio Gramsci – He was aware of the neo-Machiavellians and shared some of their conclusions. For example, he accepted that for the moment, while there were classes, there really were “rulers and ruled, leaders and led.” Any politics that ignored this “primordial, irreducible” fact was doomed to failure. For rulers, consent was preferable to coercion. This could only be achieved by convincing the ruled that the established political order served their interests. The ability to dominate through the power of ideas rather than brute force Gramsci called “hegemony.” 329
The U.S. Government’s Committee on Public Information (CPI), set up as the country entered the war in 1917, impressed all those involved with the apparent case with which a bellicose opinion could be shaped by using every available means to put out the world about the danger of German militarism and the need for a robust response. Led by the former progressive journalist George Creely, who famously observed that “people do not live by bread alone: they live mostly by catch phrases.” 337
As King began to turn his attention to issues of poverty, the question was whether the methods that had brought political gains in the South and launched him to national prominence could work across the country on issues that were much more intractable. 364
Instead of the polarized class struggle anticipated by Marx, postwar capitalist society was marked by an improved standard of living…the salaried middle classes were on the ascendant, largely to be found in large, impersonal organizations. The daily grind of life was hardly grueling. Yet there appeared to be something missing. The critique was not of growing misery and poverty but of dreariness, not so much physical deprivation but of a psychological void…William Whyte’s The Organization Man suggested a degree of homogenization in the American middle class…the fault, he argued, was not in organization but its worship, “the soft-minded denial that there is a conflict between the individual and society.” 369
A strategy of absolute ends emerged, heroic and romantic, doomed to fail but magnificent in its amibiton and noble in its honesty. The aim was to affirm existence rather than realize goals, and in this there was a nod across the Atlantic to the French existentialists with their deep musing about the human condition, full of absurdity, abandonment, and despair, but also stressing the unavoidability of choice. [I think he’s misunderstanding existentialism a bit, but anyway.] 371
“I am convinced that the truest act of courage, the strongest act of manliness is to sacrifice ourselves for others in a totally non-violent struggle for justice. To be a man is to suffer for others. God help us to be men.” –Cesar Chavez 387
Ronald Regan – The make believe and real worlds coalesced in his mind. He always sounded sincere because he said what he believed, even if it did not correspond to the facts. In any conflicts between feelings and fact, feelings won. “He believed in the power of stories, sincerely told.” 442
This messy, infuriating, unceasing political activity reflected the limiting logic of an ethic of responsibility. 456