One of the best books I have ever read on Finance & Investing. The author has distilled complex financial concepts in a simple language.
This book could have been made even better had the author thrown more light on practical investing decisions to be taken based on analysis of the financials. But it, nevertheless, is a compelling read.
1. Chapter 1 – how to look at the stock market
• Value investors believe that stock market fluctuates in the short-term due to emotions and in the long run due to value
• Bubbles – dotcom bubble in 2000 took place due to an overly optimistic faith in technology companies. In 1637, we had the first recording of an economic bubble. It was in the Netherlands when “Tulipmania” occurred. At the peak of the bubble, a tulip bulb was traded at the price of 10 years’ annual income for a worker, far greater than the value of a tulip bulb. Today we might have a laugh at the expense of the poor Dutch people who went into economic ruin, but as we have seen twice in the last decade, humanity has learned very little from historic economic bubbles.
• The market doesn’t offer value, it offers price – you determine the value.
• Some investments do not generate profit like gold, silver. Their value is based on people’s belief & perception
2. Chapter 2 – concepts every investor should know –
• Interest rate – its like gravity i.e. it’s always there, having an impact on people & businesses. Interest rate is like the PRICE OF MONEY.
• The FED determines the interest rate in a similar way. They look at risk and how to adjust financial behavior; however, they do it on a much larger macro scale. The FED is not only looking at you, but at the whole economy. In times of recession, the government wants us to spend more money. It achieves this by lowering the price of money. In other words, it lowers interest rates. This is an incentive to spend more money. When more money is spent, it will increase consumption, which in turn will lead to employment and higher wealth in the economy. When interest rates are low, companies can borrow for less. This makes new investments more attractive, which again leads to more employment and higher wealth. When money is cheap, typically stocks are too. This is the most important time to accumulate as many shares as you can. When times are good, the government wants it to continue. They achieve this by trying to avoid a bubble in the market—so they increase the price of money, or increase interest rates. When things get expensive, we tend to buy less. That is not only true for TVs and houses; we adjust our financial behavior to all consumption. As with the electronic store that is lending you money for a TV, the risk and thereby the interest rate is high. Citizens really do not want a bubble, and even less a bubble that bursts, because it creates instability in the economy. As a successful stock investor, bubbles and interest rate swings present enormous opportunities. If you want to master the stock market, start with a firm understanding of interest rates. It’s truly the foundation to the entire economic cycle and value of everything on the planet. There’s a big difference between price and value, and interest rates are the key ingredient to their disparity.
• Inflation (value) – nominal dollar does not adjust for inflation whilst real dollar adjusts the inflation. Government likes inflation for 3 reasons:
• Reason 1 – you start purchasing more, generating employment & wealth in the society. Side note – if you earn $1 per hour in 1913, & $23.94 in 2013, then a way to say this is nominal $1 in 1913 is equivalent to real dollar 23.94 in 2013
• Reason 2 – you are taxed on nominal dollars
• Reason 3 – debt is issued in nominal terms.
• Bonds - We have also learned that the interest rate was the price of money. So when the interest rate is high, the price of money is also high. That means that if you’re the lender (or bond purchaser), you will receive more money from the borrower (or bond seller) if interest rates across the market are generally high. We have also learned that the interest rate was the price of money. So when the interest rate is high, the price of money is also high. That means that if you’re the lender (or bond purchaser), you will receive more money from the borrower (or bond seller) if interest rates across the market are generally high.
3. Chapter 3 – a brief introduction to financial statements
• Profits/ earnings/ net income all mean the same
• If equity is “own funds”, why is it not grouped under “assets”? Because equity does not belong to company, it belongs to shareholders. Hence, it’s a liability. Equity is referred to as “book value”
4. Chapter 4 – principles & rules of value investing
• Principle 1 – VIGILANT LEADERSHIP
o RULE 1 – LOW DEBT – analyse the debt-equity ratio. Ratio below 0.5 is preferable.
o RULE 2 – HIGH CURRENT RATIO – current ratio of between 1.5 and 2.5 is preferable
o RULE 3 – STRONG AND CONSISTENT RETURN ON EQUITY – ROE ratio is akin to a first impression. Net income/ total equity. In general, look for companies with a consistent ROE of >8% over the past 10 years. DEBT-EQUITY RATIO IS A METRIC FOR RISK, WHILST ROE RATIO IS A METRIC FOR RETURN. Both are equally important
o RULE 4 – APPROPRIATE MANAGEMENT INCENTIVES – principal-agent problem. You, as investor, are the principal & the Board of Directors is the agent
• Principle 2 – LONG-TERM PROSPECTS
o RULE 1 – PERSISTENT PRODUCTS – will technology/ internet change the way we use the product? In case of, say Coca Cola, answer is no.
o RULE 2 – MINIMISE TAXES
• Principle 3 – STOCK STABILITY
o RULE 1 – STABLE BOOK VALUE GROWTH FROM EARNINGS – EPS, ROE, dividend rate, book value, debt-equity, current ratio
o RULE 2 – SUSTAINABLE COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGE (MOAT) – 3 hints of recognizing a moat – presence of intangible assets (patents etc.), low cost (Walmart), high switching costs or “stickiness” (for eg. – shifting from Microsoft will be very troublesome for Windows users)
• Principle 4 – BUY AT ATTRACTIVE PRICES
o RULE 1 – KEEP A WIDE MARGIN-OF-SAFETY TO INTRINSIC VALUE – MOS is the difference between Share Price & Intrinsic Value.
o RULE 2 – LOW PRICE-TO-EARNINGS RATIO - Since this number is a ratio, we must always remember that the denominator (or number on the bottom of the fraction) is always 1; therefore, a P/E ratio of 10 is actually a 10/1 ratio. This means that every ten dollars of price towards the stock should give you one dollar of earnings (for one year). So if we want to understand this relationship as a percentage, we need to look at the inverse of it —or in other words, the E/P ratio. By taking the inverse of the P/E, we get a percentage yield; for example, the previous situation had a P/E of 10. Therefore 1/10 = 10%. That’s the annual yield. Let’s try it again but with a different P/E ratio. If you negotiated a lower price of $800 for the juice stand and the business still produced the same earnings, you would have a P/E of: $800/$100 = 8. Or a return of 1/8 = 12.5%. As you can see, a low P/E is preferable to a high P/E. GENERALLY, BUY STOCKS WITH A P/E RATIO OF 15 OR LOWER
o RULE 3 - LOW PRICE-TO-BOOK RATIO - As equity and book value are the same, Price to Book value or P/B also measures how much the investor pays for every $1 of the company’s equity. So let’s demonstrate this idea with an example. Looking at the $38,000 of equity from the chart above, let’s turn it into a P/B ratio. Let’s assume that this company is broken down into 100 shares. Based on that number, we know that the book value would be $380 per share (the math is $38,000/100 shares). We also need to assume a market price for one share, so let’s use $570 per share. In order to calculate the P/B ratio, we will simply conduct the following math: P/B = $570/$380 = 1.5. As you can see, the ratio has no units. So what does 1.5 mean? This means that if the P/B is 1.5, you pay a market price of $1.5 for every $1 of equity on the company’s books.
GENERALLY, P/B RATIO OF 1.5 OR BELOW IS GOOD.
o RULE 4 – SET A SAFE DISCOUNT RATE
o RULE 5 – BUY UNDERVALUED STOCKS – DETERMINING INTRINSIC VALUE – 2 approaches – Approach 1 is Discount Cash Flow calculation. 2nd approach is a variant of the 1st but it treats stock like a bond
o RULE 6 – THE RIGHT TIME TO SELL YOUR STOCKS
5. Chapter 5 – Financial statements
• Prior to 1987, companies did not report cash flow statement, they reported only P/L & Balance sheet
6. Chapter 6 – income statement in detail
• Revenue – from Primary activities, from secondary activities (other income) & gains (sale of asset gain)
• Expenses – Primary (COGS), secondary (SG&A, other operating expenses), losses (loss on sale of Fixed asset)
• Gross profit aka Margin or markup – measures organization’s efficiency to control direct cost of revenue while simultaneously increasing sales
• Net income from operations aka EBIT
• Gross Profit Margin ratio – gross profit/ revenue
• Operating margin ratio = EBIT/ revenue (considers secondary expenses like SG&A)
• Net income margin ratio = PAT/ revenue (what amount of sales will translate into Profit)
7. Balance sheet in detail
• Profitability ratios
o Return on equity – tells how much company has been able to grow the owners’ money during the year
o Return on assets – if company has no debt, ROA = ROE. ROA will always be lower than ROE if company has debt
• Liquidity ratios
o Current ratio – ideally between 1 to 1.5. Too high a ratio indicates bad cash management as cash could be put to better use
o Quick ratio – excludes inventory. Assuming we don’t sell any inventory, do we still expect to receive more than we pay over the next 12 months
• Efficiency ratios
o Inventory turnover ratio –
o Debtors turnover
o Creditors turnover
• Solvency ratios
o Debt to equity – below 0.5 is good
o Liabilities to equity – another variant of debt-to-equity –below 0.8 is good
8. Cash flow statement in detail
• A stock issue is like a perpetuity loan (never-ending loan)
• To determine if stock issue as a financing mode is good or not, look at the ROE & the Price-to-book-value (P/BV) & then you will get a fair idea of the effective perpetuity interest rate
• As a CFO – 3 options of availing funding – bank loan, bond issue, stock issuance,
• Payout to shareholder options – dividend, treasury stock buy back
• Free cash flow – operating cash flow excluding PPE
• Free-Cash-Flow to revenue ratio – 13.2% indicates that of every 100$ of revenue, 13.2$ is available for the shareholders as cash. Generally, at least 5% or higher is good
• Investing-cash-flow to operating-cash-flow ratio