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Iran Rising: The Survival and Future of the Islamic Republic
On the fortieth anniversary of the 1978–79 Iranian revolution, a definitive political picture of the Islamic Republic
When Iranians overthrew their monarchy, rejecting a pro-Western shah in favor of an Islamic regime, many observers predicted that revolutionary turmoil would paralyze the country for decades to come. Yet forty years after the 1978–79 revolution, Iran has emerged as a critical player in the Middle East and the wider world, as demonstrated in part by the 2015 international nuclear agreement. In Iran Rising, renowned Iran specialist Amin Saikal describes how the country has managed to survive despite ongoing domestic struggles, Western sanctions, and countless other serious challenges.
Saikal explores Iran’s recent history, beginning with the revolution, which set in motion a number of developments, including war with Iraq, precarious relations with Arab neighbors, and hostilities with Israel and the United States. He highlights the regime’s agility as it navigated a complex relationship with Afghanistan during the Soviet invasion, survived the Gulf wars, and handled fallout from the Iraqi and Syrian crises. Such success, Saikal maintains, stems from a distinctive political order, comprising both a supreme Islamic leader and an elected president and national assembly, which can fuse religious and nationalist assertiveness with pragmatic policy actions at home and abroad.
But Iran’s accomplishments, including its nuclear development and ability to fight ISIS, have cost its people, who are desperately pressuring the ruling clerics for economic and social reforms—changes that might in turn influence the country’s foreign policy. Amid heightened global anxiety over alliances, terrorism, and nuclear threats, Iran Rising offers essential reading for understanding a country that, more than ever, is a force to watch.
When Iranians overthrew their monarchy, rejecting a pro-Western shah in favor of an Islamic regime, many observers predicted that revolutionary turmoil would paralyze the country for decades to come. Yet forty years after the 1978–79 revolution, Iran has emerged as a critical player in the Middle East and the wider world, as demonstrated in part by the 2015 international nuclear agreement. In Iran Rising, renowned Iran specialist Amin Saikal describes how the country has managed to survive despite ongoing domestic struggles, Western sanctions, and countless other serious challenges.
Saikal explores Iran’s recent history, beginning with the revolution, which set in motion a number of developments, including war with Iraq, precarious relations with Arab neighbors, and hostilities with Israel and the United States. He highlights the regime’s agility as it navigated a complex relationship with Afghanistan during the Soviet invasion, survived the Gulf wars, and handled fallout from the Iraqi and Syrian crises. Such success, Saikal maintains, stems from a distinctive political order, comprising both a supreme Islamic leader and an elected president and national assembly, which can fuse religious and nationalist assertiveness with pragmatic policy actions at home and abroad.
But Iran’s accomplishments, including its nuclear development and ability to fight ISIS, have cost its people, who are desperately pressuring the ruling clerics for economic and social reforms—changes that might in turn influence the country’s foreign policy. Amid heightened global anxiety over alliances, terrorism, and nuclear threats, Iran Rising offers essential reading for understanding a country that, more than ever, is a force to watch.
344 pages, Hardcover
First published January 1, 2019
23 people are currently reading
324 people want to read
About the author
Amin Saikal
34 books12 followersAmin Saikal is Distinguished Professor of Political Science, Public Policy Fellow, and Director of the Centre for Arab and Islamic Studies (the Middle East and Central Asia) at the Australian National University. He is the author of The Rise and Fall of the Shah (Princeton) and Modern Afghanistan. He lives in Canberra.
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Displaying 1 - 17 of 17 reviews
March 26, 2023
I hoped for an objective, historical perspective that depicts the general complexity of Iran and its surrounding geo-political landscape, but what I've got is far from that. On the one hand, it seems I've learned many tiny details, e.g., about the fundamental differences between the policies of Chatami & Ahmadinejad, but on the other hand, it's incredibly obvious that the author is following an incredible number of shortcuts, as he wants to avoid inconvenient truths ... Too frequently his detailed description suddenly become ultra-brief and devoid of any details ("so he took power. period").
Maybe Saikal's intentions are good, maybe he'd like to put an emphasis on some aspects that are new to westerners interested in the history of Middle-East, but such "censorship" simply kills all the credibility :/
To summarize: I was looking for an honest, fair, painful but objective history of Iran. I will keep looking.
Maybe Saikal's intentions are good, maybe he'd like to put an emphasis on some aspects that are new to westerners interested in the history of Middle-East, but such "censorship" simply kills all the credibility :/
To summarize: I was looking for an honest, fair, painful but objective history of Iran. I will keep looking.
February 12, 2020
Informative in some respects, the book suffers from an almost propagandistic bias in certain ways towards Iran and clichés in the region. Downplaying terrorisms in Iran's FP! Also, a very naïve reading of Iranian motives and an untrustworthy account of diplomacy and geopolitics during the period it covers. I wanted to give it more stars. I wont waste my time writing more I have better books on FP to read.
October 12, 2023
كتاب غني بالمعلومات التاريخية، الثقافية والسياسية أنصح بقراءته.
February 7, 2020
The usually volatile Middle East perched dangerously close to an armed conflict last month when the US attacked and killed prominent Iranian major general Qasem Soleimani for his presumed links to state-sponsored terrorism. Iran retaliated with missile strikes at American targets, but luckily for the region and the world itself, both sides did not escalate further. Oil prices shot up in the few days when the crisis raged, because more than a third of the world's oil and gas supply is shipped through the narrow Hormuz Strait on the Iranian coast. Iran is militarily no match against the mighty US, but safe transport of oil through the narrow straits is entirely at their mercy. Both the countries carry an uncomfortable legacy in mutual relations after the Islamic Revolution in 1979 unseated the US-sponsored Shah of Iran and installed a strict, theocratic regime. The relations were never cordial after that and many events came to pass that helped only to bolster the antagonism. The latest point of concern is the US’ unilateral withdrawal from a deal it had entered into with Iran to curb its clandestine nuclear program. This drew considerable ire from Iran at the insouciant walking away from a deal signed by seven nations. This book is a survey of the Islamic republic’s trajectory from the coup of Khomeini to somewhere around the year 2017. Amin Saikal is a professor of political science at the Australian national University and a former director of the Centre for Arab and Islamic Studies. Born in Afghanistan, he has published numerous articles in international journals.
Iran has been oscillating from one source of trouble to the next in its post-revolutionary history. The conservative regime has had to deal with domestic disturbances, foreign intervention and a poor understanding of its nature. Iran is in a hard dilemma to select between its religious legitimacy and pragmatic policies. The central concern of the book is to explore and analyse this oscillation over the last four decades. This book is a sequel to the author’s ‘The Rise and Fall of the Shah’. It summarises the history of Iran in a few pages and brings out the tremendous significance of the events of 1979. The Islamic Revolution was unprecedented in scale and social breadth in modern history before the advent of social media. Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini replaced an autocratic, secular monarchy with an autocratic, religious theocracy. But this was not in violation of the spirit of its polity. It nearly perpetrated a political culture of authoritarianism that had underpinned Iranian politics for most of the country’s 2500 year-long history.
It is one thing for religious leaders to sermonize on the moral obligations of the believers and quite another thing to steer the destiny of a modern nation while adhering to the principles he had preached. Khomeini adopted a two-dimensioned approach to Islamic government – jihadi (combative) and ijtihadi (reformist). However, the author does not imply the more violent form of manifestation for the term ‘jihadi’. Here, it refers only to the focus on the Islamic association of politics and everyday life and the term ‘ijtihadi’ denotes a novel interpretation of Islam based on independent human reasoning, to the degree necessary for a strong, modern Islamic Iran. Even with this two pronged approach the regressive ethos lying at the root of a theocracy could not be exorcised. Saikal argues that Khomeini’s Islamic order is a key impediment to Iran’s cultural, economic and national potential as a nation rich in resources and manpower. Had it not been for his establishment of such a highly personalized and religious framework, Iran could have been a far more powerful and respectable nation. This is in spite of a well informed and connected young opposition.
This book offers a glimpse of the facade of respectability jihadi outfits are accorded in the West by its ignorant media and overzealous judicial system. Shah's administration employed repressive measures against the revolutionaries. It was the BBC that regularly carried news of protests against the Shah and the schedule of protest meetings in various cities. This helped to organise the opposition in those days when mobile phones and social media were unheard of. But, when the revolutionaries came to power, this outlet was resolutely blocked. They banned BBC and CNN outright and the few relaxations that have come into being date only to 2015. Another noteworthy feature is the West’s undeserved emphasis on liberal ideals in a society that is unfamiliar with this concept that eventually comes to the rescue of the jihadis. Jimmy Carter, who was the US President during the Islamic Revolution, made human rights a foreign policy priority. His prime target was the Soviet Union, but it also put pressure on the Shah to allow protest and criticism. Many Iranians took advantage of the small window of opportunity to criticize the prevalence of authoritarian rule and the lack of democratic rights and freedoms. Here again, after the clerics took the reins of power, human rights were conveniently buried and the US has no power to influence them.
The author describes some of the compromises made by the hard-line regime on the foreign policy front. Their concessions to the youth on the social front are amusing. Iran’s religion allows temporary marriages (Sigheh). Its officials promulgate this concept as a possible solution to the ‘problems of Iran's youth’ (p.127). This is a euphemism for pre- or extra-marital sex on which former president Rafsanjani’s titillating comments had stunned the Islamic world in the 1990s. This is legal and in accordance with the religious establishment’s rulings as a Shia religious practice. These marriages can also be arranged online.
The author tries his best to portray Iran’s decision-making bodies as a battleground for the fierce tussle between the hardliners and progressives. This two tier system pervades in all levels of bureaucracy and the armed forces. The armed forces are dominated by the IRGC which is responsible only to the supreme leader while the regular army called Artesh is controlled by the elected government. Whatever may be the design, it is always dominated by the hardliners. They allow only those reforms that are necessary for regime survival and national security but that do not harm their political and economic interests and concomitant foreign policy objectives. Saikal also attempts to glorify the conflict between these two factions, but the hegemony of the hardliners is clearly visible from the many examples he suggests.
Saikal tries to appear objective in his analysis, but his marked pro-Iranian mind-set comes to the fore on more than one occasion. It is generally perceived that US President Barack Obama granted unjustifiably liberal terms to Iran while finalizing the JCPOA deal in 2015. There was strong public opinion raised in the US against this generous give-away to a religious orthodoxy that tries to go nuclear. When Donald Trump arrived in the White House, he promptly walked out of the agreement which caused much consternation in Iran. Trump’s act so upset the author that he designates this action as ‘diabolical’! It is difficult to fathom how an impartial observer can give vent to such feelings against what is done by a party in the scheme of things he is narrating. Almost the entire book was prepared before the scrapping of the deal so that its relevance becomes a question mark. Some obvious factual errors are also seen in the text. Gorbachev is claimed to be the Soviet president in 1979 and Narasimha Rao India's prime minister in 1983.
The book is recommended.
Iran has been oscillating from one source of trouble to the next in its post-revolutionary history. The conservative regime has had to deal with domestic disturbances, foreign intervention and a poor understanding of its nature. Iran is in a hard dilemma to select between its religious legitimacy and pragmatic policies. The central concern of the book is to explore and analyse this oscillation over the last four decades. This book is a sequel to the author’s ‘The Rise and Fall of the Shah’. It summarises the history of Iran in a few pages and brings out the tremendous significance of the events of 1979. The Islamic Revolution was unprecedented in scale and social breadth in modern history before the advent of social media. Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini replaced an autocratic, secular monarchy with an autocratic, religious theocracy. But this was not in violation of the spirit of its polity. It nearly perpetrated a political culture of authoritarianism that had underpinned Iranian politics for most of the country’s 2500 year-long history.
It is one thing for religious leaders to sermonize on the moral obligations of the believers and quite another thing to steer the destiny of a modern nation while adhering to the principles he had preached. Khomeini adopted a two-dimensioned approach to Islamic government – jihadi (combative) and ijtihadi (reformist). However, the author does not imply the more violent form of manifestation for the term ‘jihadi’. Here, it refers only to the focus on the Islamic association of politics and everyday life and the term ‘ijtihadi’ denotes a novel interpretation of Islam based on independent human reasoning, to the degree necessary for a strong, modern Islamic Iran. Even with this two pronged approach the regressive ethos lying at the root of a theocracy could not be exorcised. Saikal argues that Khomeini’s Islamic order is a key impediment to Iran’s cultural, economic and national potential as a nation rich in resources and manpower. Had it not been for his establishment of such a highly personalized and religious framework, Iran could have been a far more powerful and respectable nation. This is in spite of a well informed and connected young opposition.
This book offers a glimpse of the facade of respectability jihadi outfits are accorded in the West by its ignorant media and overzealous judicial system. Shah's administration employed repressive measures against the revolutionaries. It was the BBC that regularly carried news of protests against the Shah and the schedule of protest meetings in various cities. This helped to organise the opposition in those days when mobile phones and social media were unheard of. But, when the revolutionaries came to power, this outlet was resolutely blocked. They banned BBC and CNN outright and the few relaxations that have come into being date only to 2015. Another noteworthy feature is the West’s undeserved emphasis on liberal ideals in a society that is unfamiliar with this concept that eventually comes to the rescue of the jihadis. Jimmy Carter, who was the US President during the Islamic Revolution, made human rights a foreign policy priority. His prime target was the Soviet Union, but it also put pressure on the Shah to allow protest and criticism. Many Iranians took advantage of the small window of opportunity to criticize the prevalence of authoritarian rule and the lack of democratic rights and freedoms. Here again, after the clerics took the reins of power, human rights were conveniently buried and the US has no power to influence them.
The author describes some of the compromises made by the hard-line regime on the foreign policy front. Their concessions to the youth on the social front are amusing. Iran’s religion allows temporary marriages (Sigheh). Its officials promulgate this concept as a possible solution to the ‘problems of Iran's youth’ (p.127). This is a euphemism for pre- or extra-marital sex on which former president Rafsanjani’s titillating comments had stunned the Islamic world in the 1990s. This is legal and in accordance with the religious establishment’s rulings as a Shia religious practice. These marriages can also be arranged online.
The author tries his best to portray Iran’s decision-making bodies as a battleground for the fierce tussle between the hardliners and progressives. This two tier system pervades in all levels of bureaucracy and the armed forces. The armed forces are dominated by the IRGC which is responsible only to the supreme leader while the regular army called Artesh is controlled by the elected government. Whatever may be the design, it is always dominated by the hardliners. They allow only those reforms that are necessary for regime survival and national security but that do not harm their political and economic interests and concomitant foreign policy objectives. Saikal also attempts to glorify the conflict between these two factions, but the hegemony of the hardliners is clearly visible from the many examples he suggests.
Saikal tries to appear objective in his analysis, but his marked pro-Iranian mind-set comes to the fore on more than one occasion. It is generally perceived that US President Barack Obama granted unjustifiably liberal terms to Iran while finalizing the JCPOA deal in 2015. There was strong public opinion raised in the US against this generous give-away to a religious orthodoxy that tries to go nuclear. When Donald Trump arrived in the White House, he promptly walked out of the agreement which caused much consternation in Iran. Trump’s act so upset the author that he designates this action as ‘diabolical’! It is difficult to fathom how an impartial observer can give vent to such feelings against what is done by a party in the scheme of things he is narrating. Almost the entire book was prepared before the scrapping of the deal so that its relevance becomes a question mark. Some obvious factual errors are also seen in the text. Gorbachev is claimed to be the Soviet president in 1979 and Narasimha Rao India's prime minister in 1983.
The book is recommended.
November 3, 2024
A truly amazing work.
We begin with an introduction that lists all the people the author spoke to, in Iran, the US, and Australia. Note one country missing from that list...
Then we get the most brown-nosing "Thank you to my colleagues and superiors" introduction I have ever read! Truly it's something astonishing in terms of the shamelessness.
After this we get the start of the first chapter where we're told how awful the US was to even support verbally the protests in Iran in 2018, and how the valiant UN and the rest of the world insisted on the principal of states not interfering in the affairs of other states. Sure, absolutely, we all know how seriously Iran takes that non-interference principle. After that it's all downhill.
There's an interesting book to be written on modern Iran. Such a book could even start from the principle that Iran has the right to ensure its survival against its neighbors, or be concerned primarily with internal struggles. But a book that refuses to even admit the interference with Israel? And that THAT is why the US keeps a close watch on Iran?
That's not analysis, it's fantasy and propaganda.
We begin with an introduction that lists all the people the author spoke to, in Iran, the US, and Australia. Note one country missing from that list...
Then we get the most brown-nosing "Thank you to my colleagues and superiors" introduction I have ever read! Truly it's something astonishing in terms of the shamelessness.
After this we get the start of the first chapter where we're told how awful the US was to even support verbally the protests in Iran in 2018, and how the valiant UN and the rest of the world insisted on the principal of states not interfering in the affairs of other states. Sure, absolutely, we all know how seriously Iran takes that non-interference principle. After that it's all downhill.
There's an interesting book to be written on modern Iran. Such a book could even start from the principle that Iran has the right to ensure its survival against its neighbors, or be concerned primarily with internal struggles. But a book that refuses to even admit the interference with Israel? And that THAT is why the US keeps a close watch on Iran?
That's not analysis, it's fantasy and propaganda.
October 14, 2019
Depsite his own views on Iran policy, Saikal laid out a solid and fairly balanced analysis of Iran. There were a lot of extraneous historical details that were a bit distracting. What I really can't figure out is his view at the end that the US should have stuck with Obama's Iran agreement, which failed, and how he expects the US to engage more diplomatically with a country that calls it Satan. Just a thought.
did-not-finish
October 12, 2023DNF at 20% through - Will not rate
I really tried to get through this since I'm fascinated by Iran and its history, but every time I started listening to this books I zooned out really fast and lost everything I just heard. It felt like a school project that I had to get through every time I opened the app to listen, and that takes all the fun out of reading the book for me. Maybe I can finish this one day when I'm more focused.
I really tried to get through this since I'm fascinated by Iran and its history, but every time I started listening to this books I zooned out really fast and lost everything I just heard. It felt like a school project that I had to get through every time I opened the app to listen, and that takes all the fun out of reading the book for me. Maybe I can finish this one day when I'm more focused.
April 30, 2024
عرض بانورامي محيط بالداخل والخارج بكتابة صحفية واضحة وهادئة ومبسطة لأعقد الأفكار والقصص والسياقات.
اقتصد قليلًا في مساحات ذكرها على طريقة كما سنرى، ثم نذهب فيكون كما بينّا من قبل، بينهما ضاع الكثير وظلت مساحات تحتاج لتغطية خاصة أن الكتاب حجمه متوسط ولم ليكن احد يشتكي منه كبره.
عمومًا مدخل مهم وحديث الإنتاج لاستطلاع أكاديمي من استاذ سياسة يزيد من الفهم للصعود الإيراني وكيف يفكر هؤلاء وما الذي حدث بهم وما حدث عندهم.
اقتصد قليلًا في مساحات ذكرها على طريقة كما سنرى، ثم نذهب فيكون كما بينّا من قبل، بينهما ضاع الكثير وظلت مساحات تحتاج لتغطية خاصة أن الكتاب حجمه متوسط ولم ليكن احد يشتكي منه كبره.
عمومًا مدخل مهم وحديث الإنتاج لاستطلاع أكاديمي من استاذ سياسة يزيد من الفهم للصعود الإيراني وكيف يفكر هؤلاء وما الذي حدث بهم وما حدث عندهم.
May 14, 2019
Interesting reading concerning the history of the Islamic Republic, theocratic principles and restrictions, and the profiles of the various presidents. Author’s sugar-coating of Iran’s actions and demonization of the United States robbed the book of much of its value. I learned a lot from the book though, so it was worthwhile.
October 16, 2019
This a good book to read if you want to know more about Iran from the revolution of 1979 to the present. Not a dry or boring book, it was really informative about the inner workings of Iran and its government and also every day life. I just wish there were more information on the present, with current events folding around us with Iran.
Read
April 23, 2020This book is a must-read for anyone looking to explore geopolitics and one of the Middle East's most significant players. There is an excellent historical backdrop here for Iran, and its contemporary role within the region.
April 10, 2021
This book was very dense, but the author definitely knows what he's talking about. The only reason I gave it 3 stars instead of 4 is because it could have been more readable. It took a lot of effort to stay in the prose, even though I was interested in what he was saying.
January 27, 2020
Solid overview of the Islamic Republic's history for someone like me who knew relatively little.
February 3, 2020
Informative, well-organized analysis of Iran's internal and external policies and place on the world stage since the1979 revolution.
June 5, 2020
I picked this up wanting to learn more about Iran to understand current events better. I found this book insightful and was a good foundation for understanding US-Iran relations
April 5, 2021
Very good book about Iranian revolution and post-revolution Iran. Book is written in objective, neutral standpoint with deep anaysis of all aspects of Iranian politics, economy and life.
June 29, 2021
Very informative
A bit dry
Helped clarify some of the interrelationships in the Middle East
A bit dry
Helped clarify some of the interrelationships in the Middle East
Displaying 1 - 17 of 17 reviews