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Copycats & Contrarians: Why We Follow Others . . . and When We Don't
A multidisciplinary exploration of our human inclination to herd and why our instinct to copy others can be dangerous in today’s interlinked world
Rioting teenagers, tumbling stock markets, and the spread of religious terrorism appear to have little in common, but all are driven by the same basic instincts: the tendency to herd, follow, and imitate others. In today’s interconnected world, group choices all too often seem maladaptive. With unprecedented speed, information flashes across the globe and drives rapid shifts in group opinion. Adverse results can include speculative economic bubbles, irrational denigration of scientists and other experts, seismic political reversals, and more.
Drawing on insights from across the social, behavioral, and natural sciences, Michelle Baddeley explores contexts in which behavior is driven by the herd. She analyzes the rational vs. nonrational and cognitive vs. emotional forces involved, and she investigates why herding only sometimes works out well. With new perspectives on followers, leaders, and the pros and cons of herd behavior, Baddeley shines vivid light on human behavior in the context of our ever-more-connected world.
Rioting teenagers, tumbling stock markets, and the spread of religious terrorism appear to have little in common, but all are driven by the same basic instincts: the tendency to herd, follow, and imitate others. In today’s interconnected world, group choices all too often seem maladaptive. With unprecedented speed, information flashes across the globe and drives rapid shifts in group opinion. Adverse results can include speculative economic bubbles, irrational denigration of scientists and other experts, seismic political reversals, and more.
Drawing on insights from across the social, behavioral, and natural sciences, Michelle Baddeley explores contexts in which behavior is driven by the herd. She analyzes the rational vs. nonrational and cognitive vs. emotional forces involved, and she investigates why herding only sometimes works out well. With new perspectives on followers, leaders, and the pros and cons of herd behavior, Baddeley shines vivid light on human behavior in the context of our ever-more-connected world.
351 pages, Kindle Edition
Published August 11, 2020
12 people are currently reading
103 people want to read
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Displaying 1 - 13 of 13 reviews
June 8, 2018
I think what Michelle Baddeley is trying to do with this book (or more likely the publisher with its positioning) is to recreate the success of Daniel Kahneman's Thinking Fast and Slow, and it may have been possible with this topic - but this is certainly not the book to do it. Various recommendations describe this as a 'tremendous read' and tell us that Baddeley has 'terrific writing skills' - but I have to be a contrarian: I found Copycats and Contrarians almost unreadable.
The concept is simple - that there are two significant behaviours: going along with the herd and standing out and being different. Each has advantages in different circumstances, though it can be difficult to know if following the herd, for example, is a good or bad thing in a particular circumstance. And, Baddeley suggests (contrary to David Sumpter in Outnumbered), our social media bubbles turn us too much to herd behaviour and keep out the contrarians who could change things for the better.
All this sounds very interesting, and I think it could have been. However, there are three significant problems with the book. The first is that it sometimes feels more like a business book, with their typical approach of having a few points made over and over again, than it does a science book. Secondly it's very weak on narrative. When Baddeley does built in some kind of story - for example, describing a specific experiment - things pick up. But all too often what we get is just a collection of facts, theories and opinions. And, finally, what science there is tends not to be given enough of a detailed treatment. There is relatively little content with a proper scientific basis (even Freud gets a look in without real criticism) and where studies are mentioned there is nothing about, for example, whether the sample size is big enough to draw any significant conclusions.
I came away from the book with very little insight beyond the second paragraph above. It just didn't work for me.
The concept is simple - that there are two significant behaviours: going along with the herd and standing out and being different. Each has advantages in different circumstances, though it can be difficult to know if following the herd, for example, is a good or bad thing in a particular circumstance. And, Baddeley suggests (contrary to David Sumpter in Outnumbered), our social media bubbles turn us too much to herd behaviour and keep out the contrarians who could change things for the better.
All this sounds very interesting, and I think it could have been. However, there are three significant problems with the book. The first is that it sometimes feels more like a business book, with their typical approach of having a few points made over and over again, than it does a science book. Secondly it's very weak on narrative. When Baddeley does built in some kind of story - for example, describing a specific experiment - things pick up. But all too often what we get is just a collection of facts, theories and opinions. And, finally, what science there is tends not to be given enough of a detailed treatment. There is relatively little content with a proper scientific basis (even Freud gets a look in without real criticism) and where studies are mentioned there is nothing about, for example, whether the sample size is big enough to draw any significant conclusions.
I came away from the book with very little insight beyond the second paragraph above. It just didn't work for me.
June 24, 2019
心得分享
作者：左其盛（来自豆瓣）
来源：https://book.douban.com/review/10239020/
“除了无法信任的新闻和社交媒体值得商榷的影响外,火上浇油的是我们能够接触到的信息量是如此巨大。生活在我们这个网络互联,而且实是过分互联的世界里,我们都被暴露于无休止的、来自各种不同渠道的信息之中。P285”
版权归作者所有，任何形式转载请联系作者。
作者：左其盛（来自豆瓣）
来源：https://book.douban.com/review/10239020/
以下是书中一些内容的摘抄：
1：行为生态学家找到了一个聪明的解决方案:利用某种形式的厌恶疗法,一小批袋鼬被训练成了“蟾蜍规避”(toad-smart)袋鼬,它们被喂食了添加无害催吐剂成分的蟾蜍香肠,以训练它们学会规避蟾蜍。这些“蟾蜍规避”袋鼬随后被放回野外,它们将所学传给了后代,而其他袋鼬通过社会学习的过程效仿了这些规避行为。P序言6
2：比赫昌达尼、赫什莱佛和韦尔奇借用一个极为有力的比喻来描述这种从众的过程:信息瀑布(Information cascade)。某一个体做出某个选择,其后的另一个体观察到这个选择并进行效仿,随后的个体就会更加坚定地做出同样的选择,因为此时他观察到不止一人做出这个选择。就这样,随着效仿人数的增多,“选择从众”这一信号越发强烈,P11
3：至少表面上看,嬉皮士可以不花什么代价就向潜在投资者传递一个信息:他们是充满创意的非主流。在商业社会之外,当我们想要加入某些由其他盲从者组成的团体时,我们可以向他人释放信号以证实我们加入该团体实至名归,而这并非难事,我们无须花费任何有形或无形的成本就可以成功加入某一团体。这样,集体型从众行为就可以顺势而起,P58
4：在书中,勒庞用了一个生物学的类比来描述暴众。他解释道,一群暴众就好比一个人体。暴众群体里的个体就像是身体中的细胞一样,自己并没有独立的生命。P119
5：年长虎鲸在传授知识和社会支撑中扮演的角色是复杂而微妙的。研究员注意到,“老祖母”和它儿子的关系尤为紧密。雄性虎鲸的寿命远短于雌性虎鲸,雌性虎鲸一般能活过80岁,而雄性虎鲸则只能活到约30岁。同“老祖母”一样,J群中其他的年长雌性虎鲸也会花很多时间与成年的儿子——而非女儿——待在一起。P123
6：不管怎样,个体盲从者是因为各式各样的原因才选择了随群从众,其中很多原因是和他们自己的利益及(提高)他们在充满不确定性的世界的生存概率相关。P146
7：我们可以从经济学家的利己型从众模型出发,开始我们关于标新立异行为的驱动因素的讨论。这些经济学模型显示,盲从者与叛逆者本质上并无区别,都是理性地追求最大化自身利益,只不过在权衡之后做出了不同的选择罢了。P147
8：“先知”掌握着更优的私有信息(并且自己很清楚这一点),因此不太会受到他人行动的影响;“过分自信的傻瓜”则是那些并未掌握更优质信息但自以为是的家伙,狂妄并错误地将自己的判断置于群体行为反映的社会信息之上;最后还有“反叛者”,P149
9：大多数标新立异者共有的一个明显特质是,对于盲从者而言避之不及的风险,他们承担起来却津津有味。这在金融行业的逆市交易者身上最为明显,在金融业内,逆市交易是惯用的套路。P150
10：标新立异者的冒险也和他们想要胜过其他人的欲望相关联,有时赢者会尽占金钱、掌声或名誉,留给第二名的奖励则所剩无几,甚至一无所有。为了击败所有人,标新立异者时常愿意付出个人或金钱上的投入,承受极端的风险。发明和创新就能够很好地诠释成为第一的重要性,复制其他科研发现的研究工作很少能得到认可。P153
11：如何帮助我们理解盲从者与叛逆者之间的区别呢?相较于冒险带来的潜在好处,盲从者更加关注的是如果选择反叛可能会失去的东西。P156
12：揭发者是另一类有能力积极改变世界的标新立异者。但和反叛者不同,揭发者是不情愿的标新立异者。他们并不创造,但是他们的确能够将其他人都希望掩盖的问题公之于众。P165
13：在研究盲从者与叛逆者的社会互动如何促进或阻碍商业投资和融资行为的经济学家中,凯恩斯可谓是第一人。P172
14：如我们已经看到的,保全声誉是人们选择从众和效仿他人的另一个理由。约翰·梅纳德·凯恩斯就曾经敏锐地观察到,循规守旧地犯错好过另辟蹊径地取得成功。P186
15：另一个驱动金融从众的因素是投机者想要猜测他人所想的尝试。当我们需要决定以怎样的价格购买某一资产时,尤其是当我们想要很快转手再卖出该资产时,他人愿意为这一资产支付的价格就是我们决策购买价格的重要支撑和参照点了。P188
16：斯奎尔医生再也不能作为专业证人出庭作证了,出于这个原因,一些专家现在也不再愿意出庭作证。另一名对“婴儿摇晃综合征”持保留意见的医生,艾琳·舍姆伯格(Irene Scheimberg)告诉BBC(英国广播公司)的晚间新闻节目,由于害怕会落到同样的境地,她将不再为法院提供专家意见。P213
17：我们对专家的期望有些自相矛盾:我们希望专家意见能够独到创新,但与此同时我们又希望看到专家之间的意见能彼此印证,方能安心。从经济走向到天气预报,我们总是马后炮式地对这些预测中非主流的观点持批判态度。P216
18：尤其是当大众媒体牵涉其中时,专家意见的质量就会如二手车市场一样每况愈下。即便某位专家见解精辟,我们又如何能将有着真知灼见的专家与那些自吹自擂、只期望为自己积攒口碑的人区分开来呢?这并不容易,而且绝大多数情况下并非只关乎对错。事实上,我们时常无法区分一个悉心调研、严谨细致分析的靠谱专家和一个马虎处理数据的二流专家之间的区别。P223
19：及如何将那些误导专家追随的共识与广受认可的普世正见区分开来,是我们必须面对的一个挑战。与此类似的另一个挑战是,在对叛逆型专家观念进行诠释时,如何拿捏异见背后不同动机间的平衡:多大程度上是被个人利益所驱动,又在多大程度是单纯出于对一个错误共识的合理挑战。P241
20：无论是选民对他们的政治领袖的推崇,还是选民对于政治决策的热情,反映系统1式思维的情感因素都无处不在。丹尼尔·卡尼曼就发现了2016年英国脱欧公投期间,选民中蔓延的情感因素所起到的支配作用。他担忧这种具有毁灭性的心理使人们对脱欧的长期影响视而不见。P278
21：只有在我们可以确信自己并没有被他人操控时,从众思维捷径和社会学习策略才能发挥功效。我们向他人学习的过程因为“虚假新闻”的出现而更加复杂。P280
22：除了无法信任的新闻和社交媒体值得商榷的影响外,火上浇油的是我们能够接触到的信息量是如此巨大。生活在我们这个网络互联,而且实是过分互联的世界里,我们都被暴露于无休止的、来自各种不同渠道的信息之中。P285
23：在当今这个“后真相”的政治时代,如果政客的公众形象能够巧妙地迎合我们快速系统1式的感情用事和本能决策,那么就能够有效地左右我们对领袖的选择。虚假新闻也颇合系统1式思维方式的胃口,因为它一般而言易于消化,仅包含我们借用快速决策思维捷径就能轻易处理的简单感性信息。P287
24：在前文中已经看到,我们在日常生活中的方方面面都是盲从者。显然,叛逆者终究是少数派,而效仿的追随者和叛逆的领导者时常是相互依赖的。盲从者群聚起来,而抱团的群体需要叛逆的领导者带领他们,明确共同的前进方向。P287
25：在前文中,我们已经反复暗示了社交媒体尤为有害的一个影响是,它是虚假新闻和错误信息的载体和传播渠道,它会扰乱任何同系统2利己型从众相关的理性社会学习的过程。社交媒体能够有效地响应和诱导系统1的思维模式以及感性冲动式的集体从众行为,并且打破集体型从众和利己型从众之间的平衡。P293
26：针对专家、精英和移民表现出的脆弱多变而非理性的态度,以及极端政治立场的兴起,都应部分归因于感情用事的追随公众观念,而非关注于事实本身的强烈倾向。社交媒体几乎就是为了迎合这种快速、本能和非理性的行为而量身定做的。P294
作者：左其盛（来自豆瓣）
来源：https://book.douban.com/review/10239020/
“除了无法信任的新闻和社交媒体值得商榷的影响外,火上浇油的是我们能够接触到的信息量是如此巨大。生活在我们这个网络互联,而且实是过分互联的世界里,我们都被暴露于无休止的、来自各种不同渠道的信息之中。P285”
版权归作者所有，任何形式转载请联系作者。
作者：左其盛（来自豆瓣）
来源：https://book.douban.com/review/10239020/
以下是书中一些内容的摘抄：
1：行为生态学家找到了一个聪明的解决方案:利用某种形式的厌恶疗法,一小批袋鼬被训练成了“蟾蜍规避”(toad-smart)袋鼬,它们被喂食了添加无害催吐剂成分的蟾蜍香肠,以训练它们学会规避蟾蜍。这些“蟾蜍规避”袋鼬随后被放回野外,它们将所学传给了后代,而其他袋鼬通过社会学习的过程效仿了这些规避行为。P序言6
2：比赫昌达尼、赫什莱佛和韦尔奇借用一个极为有力的比喻来描述这种从众的过程:信息瀑布(Information cascade)。某一个体做出某个选择,其后的另一个体观察到这个选择并进行效仿,随后的个体就会更加坚定地做出同样的选择,因为此时他观察到不止一人做出这个选择。就这样,随着效仿人数的增多,“选择从众”这一信号越发强烈,P11
3：至少表面上看,嬉皮士可以不花什么代价就向潜在投资者传递一个信息:他们是充满创意的非主流。在商业社会之外,当我们想要加入某些由其他盲从者组成的团体时,我们可以向他人释放信号以证实我们加入该团体实至名归,而这并非难事,我们无须花费任何有形或无形的成本就可以成功加入某一团体。这样,集体型从众行为就可以顺势而起,P58
4：在书中,勒庞用了一个生物学的类比来描述暴众。他解释道,一群暴众就好比一个人体。暴众群体里的个体就像是身体中的细胞一样,自己并没有独立的生命。P119
5：年长虎鲸在传授知识和社会支撑中扮演的角色是复杂而微妙的。研究员注意到,“老祖母”和它儿子的关系尤为紧密。雄性虎鲸的寿命远短于雌性虎鲸,雌性虎鲸一般能活过80岁,而雄性虎鲸则只能活到约30岁。同“老祖母”一样,J群中其他的年长雌性虎鲸也会花很多时间与成年的儿子——而非女儿——待在一起。P123
6：不管怎样,个体盲从者是因为各式各样的原因才选择了随群从众,其中很多原因是和他们自己的利益及(提高)他们在充满不确定性的世界的生存概率相关。P146
7：我们可以从经济学家的利己型从众模型出发,开始我们关于标新立异行为的驱动因素的讨论。这些经济学模型显示,盲从者与叛逆者本质上并无区别,都是理性地追求最大化自身利益,只不过在权衡之后做出了不同的选择罢了。P147
8：“先知”掌握着更优的私有信息(并且自己很清楚这一点),因此不太会受到他人行动的影响;“过分自信的傻瓜”则是那些并未掌握更优质信息但自以为是的家伙,狂妄并错误地将自己的判断置于群体行为反映的社会信息之上;最后还有“反叛者”,P149
9：大多数标新立异者共有的一个明显特质是,对于盲从者而言避之不及的风险,他们承担起来却津津有味。这在金融行业的逆市交易者身上最为明显,在金融业内,逆市交易是惯用的套路。P150
10：标新立异者的冒险也和他们想要胜过其他人的欲望相关联,有时赢者会尽占金钱、掌声或名誉,留给第二名的奖励则所剩无几,甚至一无所有。为了击败所有人,标新立异者时常愿意付出个人或金钱上的投入,承受极端的风险。发明和创新就能够很好地诠释成为第一的重要性,复制其他科研发现的研究工作很少能得到认可。P153
11：如何帮助我们理解盲从者与叛逆者之间的区别呢?相较于冒险带来的潜在好处,盲从者更加关注的是如果选择反叛可能会失去的东西。P156
12：揭发者是另一类有能力积极改变世界的标新立异者。但和反叛者不同,揭发者是不情愿的标新立异者。他们并不创造,但是他们的确能够将其他人都希望掩盖的问题公之于众。P165
13：在研究盲从者与叛逆者的社会互动如何促进或阻碍商业投资和融资行为的经济学家中,凯恩斯可谓是第一人。P172
14：如我们已经看到的,保全声誉是人们选择从众和效仿他人的另一个理由。约翰·梅纳德·凯恩斯就曾经敏锐地观察到,循规守旧地犯错好过另辟蹊径地取得成功。P186
15：另一个驱动金融从众的因素是投机者想要猜测他人所想的尝试。当我们需要决定以怎样的价格购买某一资产时,尤其是当我们想要很快转手再卖出该资产时,他人愿意为这一资产支付的价格就是我们决策购买价格的重要支撑和参照点了。P188
16：斯奎尔医生再也不能作为专业证人出庭作证了,出于这个原因,一些专家现在也不再愿意出庭作证。另一名对“婴儿摇晃综合征”持保留意见的医生,艾琳·舍姆伯格(Irene Scheimberg)告诉BBC(英国广播公司)的晚间新闻节目,由于害怕会落到同样的境地,她将不再为法院提供专家意见。P213
17：我们对专家的期望有些自相矛盾:我们希望专家意见能够独到创新,但与此同时我们又希望看到专家之间的意见能彼此印证,方能安心。从经济走向到天气预报,我们总是马后炮式地对这些预测中非主流的观点持批判态度。P216
18：尤其是当大众媒体牵涉其中时,专家意见的质量就会如二手车市场一样每况愈下。即便某位专家见解精辟,我们又如何能将有着真知灼见的专家与那些自吹自擂、只期望为自己积攒口碑的人区分开来呢?这并不容易,而且绝大多数情况下并非只关乎对错。事实上,我们时常无法区分一个悉心调研、严谨细致分析的靠谱专家和一个马虎处理数据的二流专家之间的区别。P223
19：及如何将那些误导专家追随的共识与广受认可的普世正见区分开来,是我们必须面对的一个挑战。与此类似的另一个挑战是,在对叛逆型专家观念进行诠释时,如何拿捏异见背后不同动机间的平衡:多大程度上是被个人利益所驱动,又在多大程度是单纯出于对一个错误共识的合理挑战。P241
20：无论是选民对他们的政治领袖的推崇,还是选民对于政治决策的热情,反映系统1式思维的情感因素都无处不在。丹尼尔·卡尼曼就发现了2016年英国脱欧公投期间,选民中蔓延的情感因素所起到的支配作用。他担忧这种具有毁灭性的心理使人们对脱欧的长期影响视而不见。P278
21：只有在我们可以确信自己并没有被他人操控时,从众思维捷径和社会学习策略才能发挥功效。我们向他人学习的过程因为“虚假新闻”的出现而更加复杂。P280
22：除了无法信任的新闻和社交媒体值得商榷的影响外,火上浇油的是我们能够接触到的信息量是如此巨大。生活在我们这个网络互联,而且实是过分互联的世界里,我们都被暴露于无休止的、来自各种不同渠道的信息之中。P285
23：在当今这个“后真相”的政治时代,如果政客的公众形象能够巧妙地迎合我们快速系统1式的感情用事和本能决策,那么就能够有效地左右我们对领袖的选择。虚假新闻也颇合系统1式思维方式的胃口,因为它一般而言易于消化,仅包含我们借用快速决策思维捷径就能轻易处理的简单感性信息。P287
24：在前文中已经看到,我们在日常生活中的方方面面都是盲从者。显然,叛逆者终究是少数派,而效仿的追随者和叛逆的领导者时常是相互依赖的。盲从者群聚起来,而抱团的群体需要叛逆的领导者带领他们,明确共同的前进方向。P287
25：在前文中,我们已经反复暗示了社交媒体尤为有害的一个影响是,它是虚假新闻和错误信息的载体和传播渠道,它会扰乱任何同系统2利己型从众相关的理性社会学习的过程。社交媒体能够有效地响应和诱导系统1的思维模式以及感性冲动式的集体从众行为,并且打破集体型从众和利己型从众之间的平衡。P293
26：针对专家、精英和移民表现出的脆弱多变而非理性的态度,以及极端政治立场的兴起,都应部分归因于感情用事的追随公众观念,而非关注于事实本身的强烈倾向。社交媒体几乎就是为了迎合这种快速、本能和非理性的行为而量身定做的。P294
July 8, 2019
It must be said that this book has an interesting idea behind it, even if that idea is cloaked in bogus evolutionary thinking. Even with this, though, there is something quite entertaining at the core of this book, and that is a tension between wanting to praise contrarians while also recognizing that society does not want there to be too many of them. As is the case fairly often when one deals with this sort of phenomenon, I find myself quite interested in the way that there are qualities that society claims to support (like creativity) in the abstract that it does not in fact support as much as one might hope. I'm not always sure why this is the case, but in the case of contrarians, it is easy to see why people would support contrarians in the abstract because they fancy themselves so but not appreciate people who go against the herd in practice when they are being questioned and opposed. This is a fairly obvious example of the tendency for people not to have self-knowledge about where they stand and who they truly are, and this book does a good job at bringing this point out.
In a bit more than 250 pages of material the author looks at how the dynamic between copy cats and contrarians plays out in various aspects of human life and also points out that both are related to a common herd instinct where copycats go along with the herd while contrarians trust their own inner insight more than the wisdom of crowds and stand out on their own. There are, of course, advantages and disadvantages to both approaches. The author begins with an introduction and then discusses clever copying (1) as well as the positive and negative sides of mob psychology (2). The author talks about the relationship between herd instinct and the brain (3) as well as coming to a comparison about animal herds (4) and their operation. After that the author discusses mavericks (5) in some detail and also looks at the comparison between contrarian entrepreneurs and copycat speculators (6) who have a valuable purpose even if they depend on the originality of others. Finally, the book closes with a discussion of herding experts (7) and the phenomenon of following the leader (8) before ending with a contrast of contrarians and copycats as well as endnotes, suggestions for further reading, acknowledgments, illustration credits, and an index.
The author puts herself in a strange position by being copycat authors of a book while simultaneously praising more original contrarians. She offers received wisdom that claims evolutionary insights and looks to compare business behavior with the animal world as well as psychology. None of this is particularly original that has not been done equally well by dozens of writers. This is not a bad book, and at times it is entertaining, but it certainly is a redundant book that offers little that is contrary to the contemporary conventional wisdom. The author seems somewhat unaware of where she stands, or at least unwilling to use themselves as object lessons of copycats whose efforts may help promote the ideas of more original thinkers, because it is so much more exciting to paint oneself as a contrarian going against the current even when that is clearly not the case. It would appear unlikely, given the amount of study that the author has undertaken in reading about the subject, that she could be unaware of being a copycat, but it is quite possible that she underestimates the way that she too follows as part of a herd of evolutionary-perspective writers who ponder questions of creativity without having very much new or striking to say.
In a bit more than 250 pages of material the author looks at how the dynamic between copy cats and contrarians plays out in various aspects of human life and also points out that both are related to a common herd instinct where copycats go along with the herd while contrarians trust their own inner insight more than the wisdom of crowds and stand out on their own. There are, of course, advantages and disadvantages to both approaches. The author begins with an introduction and then discusses clever copying (1) as well as the positive and negative sides of mob psychology (2). The author talks about the relationship between herd instinct and the brain (3) as well as coming to a comparison about animal herds (4) and their operation. After that the author discusses mavericks (5) in some detail and also looks at the comparison between contrarian entrepreneurs and copycat speculators (6) who have a valuable purpose even if they depend on the originality of others. Finally, the book closes with a discussion of herding experts (7) and the phenomenon of following the leader (8) before ending with a contrast of contrarians and copycats as well as endnotes, suggestions for further reading, acknowledgments, illustration credits, and an index.
The author puts herself in a strange position by being copycat authors of a book while simultaneously praising more original contrarians. She offers received wisdom that claims evolutionary insights and looks to compare business behavior with the animal world as well as psychology. None of this is particularly original that has not been done equally well by dozens of writers. This is not a bad book, and at times it is entertaining, but it certainly is a redundant book that offers little that is contrary to the contemporary conventional wisdom. The author seems somewhat unaware of where she stands, or at least unwilling to use themselves as object lessons of copycats whose efforts may help promote the ideas of more original thinkers, because it is so much more exciting to paint oneself as a contrarian going against the current even when that is clearly not the case. It would appear unlikely, given the amount of study that the author has undertaken in reading about the subject, that she could be unaware of being a copycat, but it is quite possible that she underestimates the way that she too follows as part of a herd of evolutionary-perspective writers who ponder questions of creativity without having very much new or striking to say.
May 28, 2024
Overall, an excellent look into the economic, social, and psychological reasons why people decide to follow the herd and why some don't (though it could be argued that contrarians are really just choosing to follow a different herd). The chapter on mavericks was very interesting, as were the sections on economics (which I didn't expect when I initially began reading it; I had been expecting it to be strictly a psychological book). One of the things I like about this book is the repetition of concepts, because the material is a bit dense; so it's helpful to have reminders of what Bayesian reasoning is, for example, when it's brought up in later chapters, and where in the book to find the concepts, should you wish to refresh yourself deeper.
The author clearly holds an evolutionary worldview, so that's an unfortunate, unscientific, and historically inaccurate perspective brought into the evaluation of copycats and contrarians, particularly in chapters 4 and 5. The author views mankind starting out as primitive beings who evolved herding strategies as they struggled to survive harsh conditions versus a more intelligent creation who was speaking in full sentences, farming, and developing complex societies from the beginning of time, as taught in the historical book of Genesis. The author theorizes that mankind has not had sufficient chance to adapt to "modern institutions like markets and government, and modern artefacts such as money and computers" (p.125). While computers are certainly a more modern invention, mankind has had monetary and governmental systems for much longer than the author apparently believes. These concepts are laid out in the history of the ancient Israelites, including pre-Israel as a nation, in the Pentateuch.
Another criticism of the book is the section on fake news in Chapter 8, as the author cites the left-leaning PolitiFact rating most of Trump's campaign statements as "mostly false" and Hilary Clinton's as "true" and "mostly true." Ultimately, for one to really determine if someone is stating something true or false, we cannot fully rely upon fact-checkers that have just as much bias as the next person; so it's difficult to fully accept that section at face value. I highly suspect bias against Trump in the PolitiFact study. There's also mention of democracy, which is a common misconception about the American political system. The USA is a republic with democratic principles, but we are not a democracy, as "The Federalist Papers" describe the difference in great detail. When delving into the psychology of people making decisions within the context of our political system, a proper view about it is warranted.
The author clearly holds an evolutionary worldview, so that's an unfortunate, unscientific, and historically inaccurate perspective brought into the evaluation of copycats and contrarians, particularly in chapters 4 and 5. The author views mankind starting out as primitive beings who evolved herding strategies as they struggled to survive harsh conditions versus a more intelligent creation who was speaking in full sentences, farming, and developing complex societies from the beginning of time, as taught in the historical book of Genesis. The author theorizes that mankind has not had sufficient chance to adapt to "modern institutions like markets and government, and modern artefacts such as money and computers" (p.125). While computers are certainly a more modern invention, mankind has had monetary and governmental systems for much longer than the author apparently believes. These concepts are laid out in the history of the ancient Israelites, including pre-Israel as a nation, in the Pentateuch.
Another criticism of the book is the section on fake news in Chapter 8, as the author cites the left-leaning PolitiFact rating most of Trump's campaign statements as "mostly false" and Hilary Clinton's as "true" and "mostly true." Ultimately, for one to really determine if someone is stating something true or false, we cannot fully rely upon fact-checkers that have just as much bias as the next person; so it's difficult to fully accept that section at face value. I highly suspect bias against Trump in the PolitiFact study. There's also mention of democracy, which is a common misconception about the American political system. The USA is a republic with democratic principles, but we are not a democracy, as "The Federalist Papers" describe the difference in great detail. When delving into the psychology of people making decisions within the context of our political system, a proper view about it is warranted.
This entire review has been hidden because of spoilers.
September 16, 2018
Old, young, revolutionary, conservatory, christian, muslim, rich, poor, it does not matter. Baddeley has found out the rules. And Baddeley can tell why "we", an uniform mass, follow others. I smell well paid taxpayer sponsored academia.
Chapter 2. Mob psychology. It starts with:
> How and why would a group of close on 900 people collectively decide to collaborate in a mass murder-suicide pact?
She knows all the details. So how. And why. For that the reader, like Baddeley student take the valuable trivia class of a nobody. What is relevant? The cult was founded in 1955. Were the dead from the ones that joined in 1955? Mostly not, but who cares? Certainly not Baddeley. Another relevant detail. They moved to California. Why? Who carest. Certainly not Baddeley. And so on.
In the end there is no answer. Just paper pusher weaseling. The technique is fairly uncreative: inject more pointless questions.
> Why did so many otherwise conventional and law-abiding individuals allow themselves to be manipulated by one man?
I don't know. Maybe they manipulated him into taking the final decision. Maybe it was somebody else pulling the strings. That does not stop Baddeley to continue with the fairy tale of what happened when.
But the questions were how and why. And they are left unanswered. Yet buried among all those words there is the key to the whole text:
> Actual human experience is much messier, and abstract economic models are not well designed to describe all the real world’s social and psychological complexities.
So "we", the faceless mass from the first paragraph, need a new priest to tell us what god and our spirits want to tell us. I'll let you guess who is that most competent person to fill in such a prophetic job.
Chapter 2. Mob psychology. It starts with:
> How and why would a group of close on 900 people collectively decide to collaborate in a mass murder-suicide pact?
She knows all the details. So how. And why. For that the reader, like Baddeley student take the valuable trivia class of a nobody. What is relevant? The cult was founded in 1955. Were the dead from the ones that joined in 1955? Mostly not, but who cares? Certainly not Baddeley. Another relevant detail. They moved to California. Why? Who carest. Certainly not Baddeley. And so on.
In the end there is no answer. Just paper pusher weaseling. The technique is fairly uncreative: inject more pointless questions.
> Why did so many otherwise conventional and law-abiding individuals allow themselves to be manipulated by one man?
I don't know. Maybe they manipulated him into taking the final decision. Maybe it was somebody else pulling the strings. That does not stop Baddeley to continue with the fairy tale of what happened when.
But the questions were how and why. And they are left unanswered. Yet buried among all those words there is the key to the whole text:
> Actual human experience is much messier, and abstract economic models are not well designed to describe all the real world’s social and psychological complexities.
So "we", the faceless mass from the first paragraph, need a new priest to tell us what god and our spirits want to tell us. I'll let you guess who is that most competent person to fill in such a prophetic job.
February 4, 2022
看完心得：
和上星期看完潛意識雷同
但作者有小部分不盡然是正確⋯公共人物，社會上財團，集團控制全球也不能揭露…所以只能和其他書一樣：無止境的丟二元思考，思維，對立去迫讀者接受我們現在認為只有對與錯的思維
標新立異類的人作者沒有帶出的就是他們知道真相擁有足夠的自我判斷力…知識充足
而追隨者不是只有追隨社群安全，其實作者又忽略了很多個體戶對知識的不追隨，而產生的缺乏安全感⋯⋯
Author did not reveal the truth about corporate totalitarianism, commercialism...invisible hands that control the world...
6/10
前言
為什麼群聚？ 結果
第一章 機智的模仿
人群中的經濟人／社會學習／策略性優勢／信號放送／名聲／權力和安全
第二章 暴民心理學
集體群聚和群眾智慧／古斯塔夫．勒龐的心理學群眾／佛洛伊德論歸屬感／
完形心理學和心理社會學／暴民認同／夜晚的暴民／同儕壓力／學習社會規範
以社會壓力推行政策
第三章 群聚之腦
性格掙扎／估量模仿之源／打開大腦的黑盒子／腦部掃描儀內的模仿者和逆向操作者／
群聚捷思法
第四章 動物群聚
豹與狼／企鵝和蜥蜴的社會生活／憤怒鳥／群聚的牛群／演化的影響／自我犧牲的黏菌／
愛交際的動物／人類群聚的演進／社交媒體世界中的火神武爾肯（Vulcan）
第五章 標新立異人士
何必標新立異？／標新立異者和資訊／標新立異人士勇於冒險／戰勝人群／
標新立異者的心思／我們為何需要標新立異者
第六章 當企業家尬上投機者
貨幣常規／鬱金香狂熱事件／理性的泡沫／凱恩斯眼中的投機者／情感群聚／
金融群聚：認知、情感和神經科學／企業界的標新立異人士／企業家的情緒／
生態：模仿者—逆向操作者的共生學／控制投機行為，鼓勵企業精神
第七章 專家也難逃群聚
專家也會犯錯／不確定世界裡樂於社交的專家／自利專家／專家偏誤／
專家的群聚外部性／人群中的專家／當業餘人士加入專家行列
第八章 跟著領袖走
企業領袖和追隨者／追隨鄰居 為什麼追隨領袖？／對權威的心服口服／
領袖和追隨者的思考模式／監獄中的學生／壓抑社會情緒／領袖— 追隨者的共生關係／
現代偶像崇拜／政治部落主義／政治群聚：理性與感性之爭／「自由世界」的領袖
結論 模仿者對上逆向操作者
和上星期看完潛意識雷同
但作者有小部分不盡然是正確⋯公共人物，社會上財團，集團控制全球也不能揭露…所以只能和其他書一樣：無止境的丟二元思考，思維，對立去迫讀者接受我們現在認為只有對與錯的思維
標新立異類的人作者沒有帶出的就是他們知道真相擁有足夠的自我判斷力…知識充足
而追隨者不是只有追隨社群安全，其實作者又忽略了很多個體戶對知識的不追隨，而產生的缺乏安全感⋯⋯
Author did not reveal the truth about corporate totalitarianism, commercialism...invisible hands that control the world...
6/10
前言
為什麼群聚？ 結果
第一章 機智的模仿
人群中的經濟人／社會學習／策略性優勢／信號放送／名聲／權力和安全
第二章 暴民心理學
集體群聚和群眾智慧／古斯塔夫．勒龐的心理學群眾／佛洛伊德論歸屬感／
完形心理學和心理社會學／暴民認同／夜晚的暴民／同儕壓力／學習社會規範
以社會壓力推行政策
第三章 群聚之腦
性格掙扎／估量模仿之源／打開大腦的黑盒子／腦部掃描儀內的模仿者和逆向操作者／
群聚捷思法
第四章 動物群聚
豹與狼／企鵝和蜥蜴的社會生活／憤怒鳥／群聚的牛群／演化的影響／自我犧牲的黏菌／
愛交際的動物／人類群聚的演進／社交媒體世界中的火神武爾肯（Vulcan）
第五章 標新立異人士
何必標新立異？／標新立異者和資訊／標新立異人士勇於冒險／戰勝人群／
標新立異者的心思／我們為何需要標新立異者
第六章 當企業家尬上投機者
貨幣常規／鬱金香狂熱事件／理性的泡沫／凱恩斯眼中的投機者／情感群聚／
金融群聚：認知、情感和神經科學／企業界的標新立異人士／企業家的情緒／
生態：模仿者—逆向操作者的共生學／控制投機行為，鼓勵企業精神
第七章 專家也難逃群聚
專家也會犯錯／不確定世界裡樂於社交的專家／自利專家／專家偏誤／
專家的群聚外部性／人群中的專家／當業餘人士加入專家行列
第八章 跟著領袖走
企業領袖和追隨者／追隨鄰居 為什麼追隨領袖？／對權威的心服口服／
領袖和追隨者的思考模式／監獄中的學生／壓抑社會情緒／領袖— 追隨者的共生關係／
現代偶像崇拜／政治部落主義／政治群聚：理性與感性之爭／「自由世界」的領袖
結論 模仿者對上逆向操作者
October 7, 2018
Herding involves (1) imitation (2) is a group phenomenon, and (3) may be driven by unconscious motivations, but s not random.
I skimmed large parts of this book, because it contained well known examples (to me at least). We are social creatures and peer pressure/what others do, is important in shaping our behavior. From biology, it is also known there is safety in numbers (herds protect against predators). So this book is fairly shallow and does not add many novel ideas.
One of the quotes at the beginning summarizes the dilemma very well:
“Worldly wisdom teaches that it is better for reputation to fail conventionally than to succeed unconventionally.” ― John Maynard Keynes, The General Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money
https://www.goodreads.com/quotes/8019...
p264 (when describing work by Michael Weisberg): We need to devise incentives for contrarianism.
I skimmed large parts of this book, because it contained well known examples (to me at least). We are social creatures and peer pressure/what others do, is important in shaping our behavior. From biology, it is also known there is safety in numbers (herds protect against predators). So this book is fairly shallow and does not add many novel ideas.
One of the quotes at the beginning summarizes the dilemma very well:
“Worldly wisdom teaches that it is better for reputation to fail conventionally than to succeed unconventionally.” ― John Maynard Keynes, The General Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money
https://www.goodreads.com/quotes/8019...
p264 (when describing work by Michael Weisberg): We need to devise incentives for contrarianism.
July 12, 2019
I found that the subject was developed in a bizarre way, probably the right approach to take, but which disturbed me. Eventually, after trying a number of theories and ways at looking at the issue, the author ends up basing her book on Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow: Simplified Version. Frankly I found the last part the most interesting one, whereas from a formal point of view it looks the less developed one, one of this sections where you address all the missing issues that you couldn't include in the structuring theory that you described before. In any case, why some people are copycats and others contrarians and why the ones need the others remains a fascinating subject.
July 19, 2020
The boons of copycat behaviour is the survival benefit, but the contrarians are the ones who bring breakthrough and progress. Copycat behaviour, even though safe and individually driven, doesn’t always bring about good outcomes when in huge numbers (think folly of the crowd).
This book described a lot of precursors that govern social behaviour, mostly unhealthy ones. And it’s good that the author is trying to raise some awareness on everything that can go wrong when people copy each other with incomplete information or not using the information they actually have to help them govern their own decision making independent of others’ influence.
This book described a lot of precursors that govern social behaviour, mostly unhealthy ones. And it’s good that the author is trying to raise some awareness on everything that can go wrong when people copy each other with incomplete information or not using the information they actually have to help them govern their own decision making independent of others’ influence.
June 6, 2020
Listened to audiobook.
Literary nonfiction is among my favorites when done well, and Baddeley definitely does. Highly accessible, she summarizes research studies seamlessly as she presents the ways and the whys human beings follow and when they don't. This is a great blend of sociology, psychology, and biology with an academic bent.
Literary nonfiction is among my favorites when done well, and Baddeley definitely does. Highly accessible, she summarizes research studies seamlessly as she presents the ways and the whys human beings follow and when they don't. This is a great blend of sociology, psychology, and biology with an academic bent.
September 13, 2021
I have to admit some of the language in this book went a bit over my head. A number of ideas were interesting but had already been made by other scientists. Still an interesting compilation with a conclusion that gave me thought given the issues that occurred in 2020.
November 8, 2018
I had such high hopes for this book, and I had a hard time keeping up with it. I really had to force myself to get through it.
April 4, 2024
Didn't finish
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