Small Wars, Big Data: The Information Revolution in Modern Conflict

by Eli Berman (With), Joseph H. Felter, Jacob N. Shapiro

How a new understanding of warfare can help the military fight today’s conflicts more effectivelyThe way wars are fought has changed starkly over the past sixty years. International military campaigns used to play out between large armies at central fronts. Today's conflicts find major powers facing rebel insurgencies that deploy elusive methods, from improvised explosives to terrorist attacks. Small Wars, Big Data presents a transformative understanding of these contemporary confrontations and how they should be fought. The authors show that a revolution in the study of conflict--enabled by vast data, rich qualitative evidence, and modern methods—yields new insights into terrorism, civil wars, and foreign interventions. Modern warfare is not about struggles over territory but over people; civilians—and the information they might choose to provide—can turn the tide at critical junctures.The authors draw practical lessons from the past two decades of conflict in locations ranging from Latin America and the Middle East to Central and Southeast Asia. Building an information-centric understanding of insurgencies, the authors examine the relationships between rebels, the government, and civilians. This approach serves as a springboard for exploring other aspects of modern conflict, including the suppression of rebel activity, the role of mobile communications networks, the links between aid and violence, and why conventional military methods might provide short-term success but undermine lasting peace. Ultimately the authors show how the stronger side can almost always win the villages, but why that does not guarantee winning the war. Small Wars, Big Data provides groundbreaking perspectives for how small wars can be better strategized and favorably won to the benefit of the local population.

Genres: War, Military Fiction, Nonfiction, Politics, Audiobook, Economics, Technology

408 pages, Kindle Edition

Published June 12, 2018

Reviews

[John DeRosa · Rating 4 out of 5]

I rarely rate a book 4 stars. This one book encapsulated an entire graduate school years’ study on the Political Economy of Civil Wars and Peacebuilding. The references to the First Infantry Division and colleagues only endeared me to their overall narrative.

[Patrick · Rating 5 out of 5]

Excellent overview of the academic literature on small wars and insurgencies developed by the authors over the previous decade. More than most political science books, Small Wars, Big Data has a strong and clear sense of purpose along with a lot of evidence that can help academics, think tank researchers, and government analysts--particularly by proposing their "information-centric" theoretical framework, which has empirical implications that can be examined in a range of contexts, as illustrated by the examples of applied research that illuminate each chapter.

[Henry Davis IV · Rating 2 out of 5]

Despite this book's title which leverages the popular technology term "big data," this book is actually more of a portfolio of work done by the think-tank where the authors work. This is not a bad thing since it provides a critical statistical analysis of recent conflicts in Iraq, Afghanistan, and other places. Throughout this book, the authors take time to not only unpack their methodological practices, but also the practical factors which limit data collection for conflict studies work like obtaining restricted (classified) information and dealing with very dangerous and, often, passionate situations in which to collect objective data in or from.

While I highly recommend this book to anyone doing conflict studies research, it has nothing to do with big data despite its title. A great definition of what big data is follows from the Oracle website (www.oracle.com):

"The definition of big data is data that contains greater variety, arriving in increasing volumes and with more velocity. ... Put simply, big data is larger, more complex data sets, especially from new data sources. These data sets are so voluminous that traditional data processing software just can't manage them."

While this book's authors do find and successfully mine new data sources for analytical insights, this data is far from being so voluminous that traditional software cannot handle it. I applaud the authors for looking outside of their field (conflict studies) for an interesting title, but do not forgive them for misusing this term so blatantly. Despite being recommended by a host of senior leaders and generals whose names are publicly well known, I do not recommend this book to someone unless they are looking specifically for conflict studies analysis techniques, methodological discussions, or to see how such research can be applied to low-intensity, counter insurgency conflicts.

[Eric Johnson · Rating 4 out of 5]

Well, I finished the book. Overall it did bring up some good points and was a sort of boring read. Not much that was written was particularly new, but overall brought up some good points. The book as mentioned is a bit boring, but I thought it had some good information and helped me understand what to write for future counterinsurgency books, and what to account for, and show what's done right, and what also is and could be done wrong. It was a recommended book from the Irregular Warfare Initiative best reads for the year, and can say it's informative, but kinda dragged out.

[Ell, Ess Jaeva · Rating 2 out of 5]

dnf---how to use data analysis to strategize in symmetrical and asymmetrical armed conflicts. some interesting info, like how in one extended conflict both sides disrupted cell service. so technically, for one side, that decision was wrong.

data analysis might be helpful in many aspects of life... i just didnt care about it's use for battle tactics and strategy

[Andrew Tollemache · Rating 4 out of 5]

A solid piece of work on how data analytics can enhance the effectiveness of COIN techniques in the "small wars" of modern conflicts. Helped by use of data from beyond just the Afghan and Iraq/ISIS theaters

[Joseph · Rating 3 out of 5]

An another wise fine and insightful book marred by the authors inability to present a clear consistent argument.

[Ailith Twinning · Rating 1 out of 5]

Remember when we thought technology might be like, anything other than totalitarian hellworld weapons?

[Colin Patrick · Rating 3 out of 5]

Basically a large research paper

[David Courter · Rating 3 out of 5]

simple hypothesis that easy to understand - should have been 50 pages.

[Allie · Rating 1 out of 5]

Did not like the format or content of this book.

[Ben Rothke · Rating 4 out of 5]

A 2012 Forbes article How Target Figured Out A Teen Girl Was Pregnant Before Her Father Did showed the power of data collection. In that article, author Kashmir Hill wrote that every time you go shopping, you share intimate details about your consumption patterns with retailers. And many of those retailers are studying those details to figure out what you like, what you need, and which coupons are most likely to make you happy. Target figured out how to data-mine its way into the womb, to figure out whether a person has a baby on the way long before the parents need to start buying diapers.

The notion of big data has not only revolutionized retail, it has changed the way nations deal with war and conflicts. In Small Wars, Big Data: The Information Revolution in Modern Conflict, authors Eli Berman, Joseph Felter and Jacob Shapiro have written a fascinating book that shows how big data and data analytics can be applied to modern warfare.

In the book, the authors show that by using gathered empirical data from the battlefields and locales, countries can create a new paradigm to deal with localized conflicts and save countless lives. While wars in the past had two large armies fighting against each other, todays conflicts are with small rebel insurgencies. By using data and analytics, the information gleaned can make the difference between a battle won and a battle lost.

It's an old saying that generals always fight the previous war. In Small Wars, Big Data, it shows that many generals have learned that lesson well, and are using the right data to fight and win these new conflicts.