“The gate that we face at present is not a question of surviving or conquering the planet. We have done all that and more. Now, today, we do not need to save the planet. We have conquered Earth. It is ours. The question before us, the gate we must pass through, is whether we can save ourselves as a vanquished Earth begins to turn against us. In the end, the planet will be fine. We might not be.”
I live in Western Japan. During this summer we: experienced an earthquake, scorching hot temperatures that killed dozens , and three large typhoons (one of which knocked out my power and water for 2 days). I grew up on the Eastern Coast of the United States so I’m no stranger to extreme winds and rain but the sheer frequency of the storms is something new and very different.
In “This is how the world ends” Jeff Nesbit takes us on a tour of disaster. Some have already happened, some remain right around the corner, some only slightly longer that that, but the disasters are not slowing down any time soon. It is difficult to synthesize the first part of this book simply because the potential and existing catastrophes are so numerous that there simply isn’t space to write about them all. Droughts, wildfires, earthquakes, floods, deforestation, species extinction, the death of pollinators such as the bumblebee (this is a very, very bad thing) are all continuing apace. Nesbit details at the end of the book some remedies to at the very least slow down impending catastrophe but is, perhaps rightly so, doubtful as to whether the political will exists to act. As such, this book reads almost like a post mortem where the cause of mankind’s death (As Nesbit says in the quote that prefaces this review, it’s not about humans saving the earth, as the earth in time will recover as it always has, but more about saving ourselves) was due to excess, hubris, and not a little stupidity.
This is at times an infuriating read simply because what is before our eyes presents such a seemingly clear and present danger and yet we (I’m looking at you America) continue to put our heads in the sand.
To be fair, some are making seemingly herculean efforts to do something but are meeting with fierce resistance:
“On the science side, the CIA set up a classified climate center in 2009 to assess both near- and long-term threats from coming wars over natural resources. Republicans immediately attacked it and threatened to block funding for it.
The only time the head of the secretive CIA center ever talked publicly was on background to two graduate students, Charles Mead and Annie Snider at the Medill National Security Reporting Project at Northwestern University, who wrote about its launch and why the CIA’s leadership felt it was important at the time. The CIA senior analyst told Mead and Snider that he’d sat at his desk while torrential rains had flooded Pakistan, the worst natural disaster in Pakistan’s history, and realized that it was a warning to the national intelligence community. It has the exact same symptoms you would see for future climate change events, and we’re expecting to see more of them, the senior CIA analyst said. ‘We wanted to know: What are the conditions that lead to a situation like the Pakistan flooding? What are the important things for water flows, food security radicalization, disease and displaced people?’ Three years later, his CIA center was gone. Republican members of Congress mounted a sustained assault on it for years during appropriations battles. ‘The CIA’s resources should be focused on monitoring terrorists in caves, not polar bears on icebergs”’ Senator John Barrasso (R-WY) said when the CIA center was announced. The former CIA director Leon Panetta fought for years to keep the center open but closed it in 2012 under continued and withering pressure from leading Republican members of Congress.”
One of the more fascinating aspects of this book is not the detailing of disastrous climate change that’s coming and already here, but rather the likely fallout from it. In particular, he devotes a significant portion of the book to “climate refugees”. This was a term I was unfamiliar with, but what distinguishes it from what we typically would consider a typical refugee, is that climate refugees aren’t fleeing political or religious persecution but rather a lack of resources. Additionally and importantly, climate refugees are not afforded the same legal protections as standard refugees (in part because governments are terrified to set a precedent that would have far reaching implications).
Climate refugees are in fact not something that are a probability as water runs scarce and lands grow dry, they are here already.
Nesbit looks at the uprisings in places such as Syria, Yemen, and Egypt and meticulously traces the massive devastations over the last few years to food and water riots that occurred several years earlier. Yes there was longstanding dissatisfaction with the regimes in these places, but it was when people were no longer able to access the essentials of life that action was taken.
Some countries such as Saudi Arabia and China have taken notice.
In a little reported story, the Saudis, recognizing the lack the water for grains to feed their people did this:
“In 2008, then king Abdullah ordered Saudi food companies to find and purchase foreign land with access to fresh water. The king offered to subsidize their operations. The head of the American embassy in Riyadh wrote in the confidential cable that the effort was needed as a way of maintaining political stability in the kingdom. That’s how the Saudis came to Arizona and bought fifteen square miles of desert in order to pull fresh water from the Colorado River in an effort to grow water-intensive alfalfa for export back to the kingdom. The Saudi rulers didn’t want to risk a revolution, like the Arab Spring, fueled by lack of food and water that might compound other problems, such as political or climate instability. This $47.5 million transaction is an example of the Saudis efforts to continuously secure its supply of high-quality hay and ensure the country’s dairy business, as well as conserving the nation’s resources”
They were not alone:
“China essentially purchased America’s largest pork producer, Smithfield Foods, in 2013 through a company that had the full financial and political backing of its government. A quarter of all pigs raised in America, a process that consumes vast amounts of water to grow the grains that serve as feed for the pigs raised for slaughter, are now part of China’s efforts to feed its own people.”
This is the new norm.
It’s chilling reading and Nesbit warns it’s only the tip of the proverbial iceberg.
What happens for example when (not if) the sea level rises an additional meter in a place like Bangladesh for example? Millions would be displaced and would have to flee somewhere. India would be the closest but India has also walled off Bangladesh on all sides to prevent such a migration. Where do they go? India has also threatened to cut off a vital supply of water that runs into Pakistan. China has threatened to cut of Himalayan water that supplies both India and Pakistan. The human migration and misery that would occur were any of these events to occur would dwarf anything we are seeing now.
For all of these reasons, this is a vitally important book. It is short, perhaps too short, but the vision of the present and future it lays out is one we cannot afford to look away from.