I travelled across the continental US by bus for two months in 1989. One of the constant subjects of concern in the hostels where I stayed, was how unsafe American cities are in comparison to cities in Europe, Canada and Australia. It was the same as well in the US media at that time. However, my own personal experience of wandering the cities and its streets as a backpacker was quite positive. I felt safe everywhere. I had a brief incident of getting robbed in the Greyhound bus station in Miami, but it happened so unobtrusively and non-violently that I wouldn’t even put it down as dangerous. Fast forward twenty years, I started reading in magazines and newspapers that American cities have reached a level of drop in crime that is simply historic. The change seems to have happened so gradually and consistently over two decades that we didn’t even seem to notice it. Perhaps, we were all busy worrying about terrorism, stock market bubbles and wars in Iraq and Afghanistan ! Statistics show that violent crime dropped across the board all over the US since the early 1990s and was reaching its lowest by 2014. Naturally, academics had to step in and explain why and how this came about.
The most spectacular theory on this was advanced in 2009 in the book ‘Freakonomics’. It claimed that the liberalization of abortion law in the early 1970s led to a decline in the number of children born to mothers who were not equipped to provide the type of resources, attention and nurture necessary for healthy development. Consequently, tens of thousands of potential offenders were never born, resulting in less number of criminal adults by the 1990s and hence, less crime. Another prominent theory was the drop in exposure to lead poisoning which changed the behavior of an entire generation of youth and hence, decline in crime. Other theories pointed to the shifts in age distribution of the US population, super economic growth, increased immigration, decline in alcohol use and more airconditioning(!). Video games, time spent on smartphones and PCs at home on social media were other explanations. However, holes were picked in each of these propositions. It emerged that no single factor altered the behavior of Americans in such a stark manner as to explain why violent crime fell so sharply. Author Sharkey weighs in with his own research on why crime declined and what we can do in future to keep it that way.
This book’s research runs in the face of what the left and the liberals generally believe to be the cause of crime and violence in society. Prof. Sharkey says that crime did not decline due to exogenous shocks like abortion or lead poison or video games but due to endogenous forces. In other words, changes that were a response to the crisis of violence itself are the reason. He believes that the transformation of public space to be the most important change since the early 1990s that contributed to the decline of violent crime. City neighbourhoods which were abandoned, are now overseen by police officers, private security and cameras. The expanded reach of the criminal justice system, aggressive prosecution and punishment are other causes which helped reduce crime. Not only these, but community residents and organizations too played their part in mobilizing to confront violence and playing a key role in reducing crime. On the other hand, the author says that these strategies have brought great costs to society. It has fostered an approach of disinvesting in low-income communities and diverting the resources to the police and the criminal justice system. As a consequence, these poor communities have been abandoned and punished, giving rise to injustice. Aggressive prosecutions and punishments have resulted in mass incarcerations, particularly African-Americans, which cannot ever be considered a good thing.
In spite of all the explanations for the drop in crime given in the book, I felt an unease as I finished reading the book. I did not feel as though we have a solid understanding of why crime really dropped and how to preserve this uneasy peace in the future. Sharkey says that crime started going up again since 2015 and that the ‘current state of peace’ is an uneasy one with costs in heavy incarcerations and an increasingly militarized police force. If increased police presence, enhanced prosecution, wide community watch and ubiquitous cameras caused crime to drop in the past two decades, then why the same methods are now failing to keep crime downward in 2017? Doesn’t it mean that we don’t really know why crime came down substantially? The author’s suggestions of ‘community quarterbacks’ and ‘society guardians’ seem like more and more policing of our neighbourhoods and more and more ‘stop and frisk’ operations. Locking up more and more people in prisons cannot be considered a successful and sustainable strategy in reducing violent crime. It is already known that black Americans are incarcerated in state prisons at an average rate of 5.1 times that of white Americans. In some states that rate is 10 times or more. It is believed that some 120000 prisoners in the system are actually innocent of the crime for which they are convicted. Since African-Americans are disproportionate in number in the prison system, it is a logical consequence that more of them are likely among the innocent ones. Any strategy that exacerbates this situation is detrimental to our society.
Finally, one cannot help casting one’s mind to other societies similar to ours in terms of culture, values, prosperity and composition, but not having our problems with regard to violent crime. Whenever I visit Europe, I cannot but be struck by the feeling of pervasive safety and security in those countries. I would have liked to see the author discuss the reason why industrially advanced nations like UK and Germany are so extremely safe in comparison to the US, but not ours. Can’t we duplicate some of their best practices in this regard?