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One Road, Many Dreams: China's Bold Plan to Remake the Global Economy
One Road, Many Dreams reveals the true extent of China's ambition, analyzes the impact of the One Belt, One Road initiative and assesses its chances of success and failure.
This is the Asian century and China has a plan--to remake the world economy. Under its audacious One Belt, One Road strategy, China is investing trillions of dollars in hundreds of projects all around the globe. It's buying up ports, building transport networks and constructing major infrastructure. From hydroelectric plants to oil pipelines, China supplies the labour if needed, the raw materials and the finance, creating customers and boosting its own economy in the process. The objective? To challenge the existing economic and political world order.
More than 80 nations have already joined China's increasingly less exclusive club and by 2049, when One Belt, One Road is set to end, its number of members is likely to rival the UN. So far, China has exercised its soft power of debt diplomacy and financial might shrewdly, serving the planet's overlooked middle-income and poor countries. The rest of the world needs to wake up because the scale of One Belt, One Road is unprecedented. Its implications for the global structure of power are potentially seismic as the geopolitical ties between Europe and Asia deepen.
Written by three highly regarded political economists, One Road, Many Dreams examines the One Belt, One Road initiative from all angles. It looks at the projects and the players, the alliances and the governance. It explores the opportunities for China and the threat to the West, particularly for Trump's isolationist US administration. At home and abroad, China is staking its credibility as a superpower on One Belt, One Road. Its resources appear limitless, but One Road, Many Dreams asks a tough has China overreached? Or can it really pull this off and remake the world economy in its own interests?
This is the Asian century and China has a plan--to remake the world economy. Under its audacious One Belt, One Road strategy, China is investing trillions of dollars in hundreds of projects all around the globe. It's buying up ports, building transport networks and constructing major infrastructure. From hydroelectric plants to oil pipelines, China supplies the labour if needed, the raw materials and the finance, creating customers and boosting its own economy in the process. The objective? To challenge the existing economic and political world order.
More than 80 nations have already joined China's increasingly less exclusive club and by 2049, when One Belt, One Road is set to end, its number of members is likely to rival the UN. So far, China has exercised its soft power of debt diplomacy and financial might shrewdly, serving the planet's overlooked middle-income and poor countries. The rest of the world needs to wake up because the scale of One Belt, One Road is unprecedented. Its implications for the global structure of power are potentially seismic as the geopolitical ties between Europe and Asia deepen.
Written by three highly regarded political economists, One Road, Many Dreams examines the One Belt, One Road initiative from all angles. It looks at the projects and the players, the alliances and the governance. It explores the opportunities for China and the threat to the West, particularly for Trump's isolationist US administration. At home and abroad, China is staking its credibility as a superpower on One Belt, One Road. Its resources appear limitless, but One Road, Many Dreams asks a tough has China overreached? Or can it really pull this off and remake the world economy in its own interests?
- GenresChina
288 pages, Hardcover
Published September 10, 2019
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April 15, 2020
One Road, Many Dreams: China's Bold Plan to Remake the Global Economy, by Daniel Drache, is an interesting new book on China's One Belt, One Road infrastructure investment project. This project is an interesting milestone in global development. It is a massive project, dwarfing other historical development projects like the Marshall Plan, in monetary ambitions, size, scope, and number of countries involved. OVer 80 countries have signed on to this project, representing a good 3/4's of global trade value. Countries like China, Philippines, Russia, Turkey, Iran, Pakistan, Indonesia, Egypt, Israel and many more have signed on. The project covers the breadth of Central Asia, South Asia, the Middle East, and Eastern Europe, and encompassing important trade nodes and centres in Belgium, Denmark, Shanghai, Singapore, and more. The ambition of this project is staggering, and many in the West and in recipient countries are concerned about debt traps, geopolitical shifts, Chinese machiavellianism, and more.
This authors of this book show that the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), is not fully understood. This project is so large, it cannot be considered one project in itself, but instead, a collection of infrastructure projects that looks to bridge the development gap between the West, and Africa, Asia and Latin America - ie. the Global South. The existing international development structure has been panned by experts and analysts, as well as political leaders in the South, for decades. Institutions like the World Bank and IMF often attach onerous terms to their lending schemes, forcing desperate nations to slash public sector budgets and staffing, reorganizing governance structures, and align with best practices as determined by the Anglo-American consensus. Bilateral donors like the United States have often been accused of trickling out foreign direct investment (FDI) and development funds to political allies regardless of governance structure, and often ignoring nations that could use it the most. Africa in particular is widely regarded as seeing disappointing returns on investment in terms of development. And states in Asia, like Thailand, the Philippines, and Indonesia have seen disappointing growth rates and declining affluence from following recommendations from the World Bank and IMF.
China has long been a member of the global south, and has first hand experience developing its economy out of low income status. It has relied on centralised, authoritarian governance practices, massive infrastructure spending, and export led growth. This combination of economic strategies differs in a big way from the deregulatory, consumer led growth strategies from the Anglo-American world, which has been development wisdom for decades. China in the modern world is one of the worlds most important economies, second only to the United States, and akin to the European Union in terms of economic clout. It is seeking to change the global order, in some respects, by changing the flow of capital, altering the centres of global financial power, and changing the narrative of economic wisdom. It offers an attractive alternative to Western aid, which has lost its reliability in many nations eyes.
The BRI is a massive project that focuses on infrastructure projects. This book lists many, including the China-Laos Railway, Gwadar port, Dhaka Highway, bridge projects in North Korea, port projects in Greece, metro systems in Turkey, low gauge railways in Kenya, and so much more, with new projects released almost daily, up to today. Many of these projects are smaller in scale, including the construction of roads, highways, bridges, and minor infrastructure updates. Some are massive, like power plants, ports of call, new cities, transportation routes spanning continents, and much more.
This book examines China's strategy, the realities of the project, and some of its shortcomings. It seeks to refute the hysterics surrounding BRI coverage in the Western press, which focus on geopolitical competition over economic realities. The reality is this is a massively ambitious infrastructure update for Asia, Africa and Eastern Europe, as well as Latin America, and much needed. There is a huge infrastructure gap in these areas, which makes trade, business, and governance improvement difficult. More importantly, it hampers the ability for those living in poverty to live, grow, learn, build or exist without great hardship. Infrastructure, in China's mind, is the way to do this. China utilizes narrow ledge contract negotiations to limit its risk, and ensure each party (partner, investor etc.) has there own narrow fields of interest and the benefits and costs of the project are clear to the parties involved.
China has been accused of utilizing its BRI project to alter the existing global order, challenge the West, and entrap nations in debt servitude to China. While these claims are greatly exaggerated, there are grains of potential truth in these accusations. China is seeking to bolster its relationship with the Global South by engaging in bilateral and multilateral projects to improve infrastructure with key trading partners. It is also seeking to realign trade to include a greater share of the Global South. These goals will certainly benefit China in a big way, securing domestic production for goods and services, improve trade avenues with other nations, and secure projects and funding for China's banking and investment firms and SOE's. China's banking system is laid out in detail here, showing the amount of oversight China's central bank - People's Bank of China (PBOC) has over these projects, through its regulatory oversight over banking and insurance regulations, and through its oversight over China's four major policy banks, which are directly involved with many BRI projects. China is also seeking to change the way global development finance works. It has created a new investment bank - the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AAIB) which is seeking to support existing banks in funding development projects. It is also offering somewhat easier terms on loans, with more leniency in renegotiating terms and interest rates, and deferring payments. From experience, AIIB project charters are quite robust, although their transparency is limited in relation to other investment banks. Even so, the AIIB and China's policy banks seem willing to invest in riskier projects than the World Bank or other development banks. This has numerous benefits: it makes funds easier to access for countries often left behind, it also encourages other banks to invest - studies sourced in this book show that the World Bank offers terms 15% more lenient if Chinese banks or the AIIB are already involved - called risk sharing. From a geostrategic perspective, the authors note that China it does not seem that China is seeking to entrap nations in debt bondage. It has been extremely generous on renegotiating terms, reducing interest rates, deferring payments, and even waiving loans. However, some debt trading has occurred. For example, China has gained a 99 year lease on a Sri Lankan port - greatly increasing its potential naval reach in key shipping lanes around India, much to the chagrin of many in Sri Lanka and the region.
This leads to an interesting discussion on Chinese ambitions and use soft power and hard power. These infrastructure updates are seen as key factors in increasing trade leverage for China, and improving its position in the global arena. One of China's main ambitions seems to be building alternative arenas for diplomatic and political power, moving the corridors of decision making away from the West and toward Asia and China. Soft power comes in the form of trade deals, no strings attached financing, diplomatic support, and non-onerous terms. Hard power comes in China's increasing military power, its use of deals as bargaining chips in the South China Sea, and the potential to turn ports like Gwadar, Pakistan and Hambantota, Sri Lanka. Already, its much touted military base in Djibouti is causing much Western hand-wringing.
From the perspective of the "Roaders" (countries signed on to the BRI), these deals are a double edged sword. On the one hand, fears are increasing over Chinese power in Asia, and many of China's neighbours, like Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos and so forth, are seeing increasing levels of anti-Chinese sentiment due to project issues, These fears are well founded, as China's scorecard in international relations of this magnitude are unknown, and geopolitical realities often trump ideology. China could very well turn out to be neocolonial minded in these cases. On the other hand, many of the states involved in the road have voluntary signed up and accepted the risk, for the sheer fact that no one else will entertain them, or when they do, offer much more onerous deals. This is somewhat of a Faustian bargain in some cases, although the authors of this book (and I largely agree at this point) see more positives than downsides. A lot of the risk here is unfounded or speculative - China could be this or could do that. However, the upside - increased infrastructure spending, better terms on development loans, and potential quality of living improvements for numerous states globally, are rather tangile. Regardless of the effect infrastructure has on societal well being (this is a hot button issue in developmental theory) it certainly can't hurt.
The other downside of this project is its potential environmental impact. China has energy infrastructure largely based on and reliant on coal. Coal is a heavy emitter of CO2. China is also a huge net importer of oil and gas. It's environmental track record is not good. Even so, in this area optimism is possible. Many of the approved projects from China and the AIIB revolve around clean energy projects. Solar power plants, wind farms, geothermal plants, and energy infrastructure updates to improve capacity and efficiency are all geared at reducing green house gas emissions. China is, after all, a signature of the Paris Accord, and has targeted greenhouse gas emissions as a key threat to Chinese stability.
A great read all and all, and much mer down to Earth than the average book on the BRI. This book is not overtly political, focusing on tangible costs and benefits, and discrediting the more hysterical analysis that happens in many a Western political rag (here's looking at you, the Economist). Much like the BRI, this book is not preachy, but does focus on real problems, real benefits, and real solutions. A fascinating read as a list of BRI projects, and how they are negotiated, funded and how they may benefit China and the world - as well as some of the key issues and concerns about the BRI. Very interesting read.
This authors of this book show that the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), is not fully understood. This project is so large, it cannot be considered one project in itself, but instead, a collection of infrastructure projects that looks to bridge the development gap between the West, and Africa, Asia and Latin America - ie. the Global South. The existing international development structure has been panned by experts and analysts, as well as political leaders in the South, for decades. Institutions like the World Bank and IMF often attach onerous terms to their lending schemes, forcing desperate nations to slash public sector budgets and staffing, reorganizing governance structures, and align with best practices as determined by the Anglo-American consensus. Bilateral donors like the United States have often been accused of trickling out foreign direct investment (FDI) and development funds to political allies regardless of governance structure, and often ignoring nations that could use it the most. Africa in particular is widely regarded as seeing disappointing returns on investment in terms of development. And states in Asia, like Thailand, the Philippines, and Indonesia have seen disappointing growth rates and declining affluence from following recommendations from the World Bank and IMF.
China has long been a member of the global south, and has first hand experience developing its economy out of low income status. It has relied on centralised, authoritarian governance practices, massive infrastructure spending, and export led growth. This combination of economic strategies differs in a big way from the deregulatory, consumer led growth strategies from the Anglo-American world, which has been development wisdom for decades. China in the modern world is one of the worlds most important economies, second only to the United States, and akin to the European Union in terms of economic clout. It is seeking to change the global order, in some respects, by changing the flow of capital, altering the centres of global financial power, and changing the narrative of economic wisdom. It offers an attractive alternative to Western aid, which has lost its reliability in many nations eyes.
The BRI is a massive project that focuses on infrastructure projects. This book lists many, including the China-Laos Railway, Gwadar port, Dhaka Highway, bridge projects in North Korea, port projects in Greece, metro systems in Turkey, low gauge railways in Kenya, and so much more, with new projects released almost daily, up to today. Many of these projects are smaller in scale, including the construction of roads, highways, bridges, and minor infrastructure updates. Some are massive, like power plants, ports of call, new cities, transportation routes spanning continents, and much more.
This book examines China's strategy, the realities of the project, and some of its shortcomings. It seeks to refute the hysterics surrounding BRI coverage in the Western press, which focus on geopolitical competition over economic realities. The reality is this is a massively ambitious infrastructure update for Asia, Africa and Eastern Europe, as well as Latin America, and much needed. There is a huge infrastructure gap in these areas, which makes trade, business, and governance improvement difficult. More importantly, it hampers the ability for those living in poverty to live, grow, learn, build or exist without great hardship. Infrastructure, in China's mind, is the way to do this. China utilizes narrow ledge contract negotiations to limit its risk, and ensure each party (partner, investor etc.) has there own narrow fields of interest and the benefits and costs of the project are clear to the parties involved.
China has been accused of utilizing its BRI project to alter the existing global order, challenge the West, and entrap nations in debt servitude to China. While these claims are greatly exaggerated, there are grains of potential truth in these accusations. China is seeking to bolster its relationship with the Global South by engaging in bilateral and multilateral projects to improve infrastructure with key trading partners. It is also seeking to realign trade to include a greater share of the Global South. These goals will certainly benefit China in a big way, securing domestic production for goods and services, improve trade avenues with other nations, and secure projects and funding for China's banking and investment firms and SOE's. China's banking system is laid out in detail here, showing the amount of oversight China's central bank - People's Bank of China (PBOC) has over these projects, through its regulatory oversight over banking and insurance regulations, and through its oversight over China's four major policy banks, which are directly involved with many BRI projects. China is also seeking to change the way global development finance works. It has created a new investment bank - the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AAIB) which is seeking to support existing banks in funding development projects. It is also offering somewhat easier terms on loans, with more leniency in renegotiating terms and interest rates, and deferring payments. From experience, AIIB project charters are quite robust, although their transparency is limited in relation to other investment banks. Even so, the AIIB and China's policy banks seem willing to invest in riskier projects than the World Bank or other development banks. This has numerous benefits: it makes funds easier to access for countries often left behind, it also encourages other banks to invest - studies sourced in this book show that the World Bank offers terms 15% more lenient if Chinese banks or the AIIB are already involved - called risk sharing. From a geostrategic perspective, the authors note that China it does not seem that China is seeking to entrap nations in debt bondage. It has been extremely generous on renegotiating terms, reducing interest rates, deferring payments, and even waiving loans. However, some debt trading has occurred. For example, China has gained a 99 year lease on a Sri Lankan port - greatly increasing its potential naval reach in key shipping lanes around India, much to the chagrin of many in Sri Lanka and the region.
This leads to an interesting discussion on Chinese ambitions and use soft power and hard power. These infrastructure updates are seen as key factors in increasing trade leverage for China, and improving its position in the global arena. One of China's main ambitions seems to be building alternative arenas for diplomatic and political power, moving the corridors of decision making away from the West and toward Asia and China. Soft power comes in the form of trade deals, no strings attached financing, diplomatic support, and non-onerous terms. Hard power comes in China's increasing military power, its use of deals as bargaining chips in the South China Sea, and the potential to turn ports like Gwadar, Pakistan and Hambantota, Sri Lanka. Already, its much touted military base in Djibouti is causing much Western hand-wringing.
From the perspective of the "Roaders" (countries signed on to the BRI), these deals are a double edged sword. On the one hand, fears are increasing over Chinese power in Asia, and many of China's neighbours, like Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos and so forth, are seeing increasing levels of anti-Chinese sentiment due to project issues, These fears are well founded, as China's scorecard in international relations of this magnitude are unknown, and geopolitical realities often trump ideology. China could very well turn out to be neocolonial minded in these cases. On the other hand, many of the states involved in the road have voluntary signed up and accepted the risk, for the sheer fact that no one else will entertain them, or when they do, offer much more onerous deals. This is somewhat of a Faustian bargain in some cases, although the authors of this book (and I largely agree at this point) see more positives than downsides. A lot of the risk here is unfounded or speculative - China could be this or could do that. However, the upside - increased infrastructure spending, better terms on development loans, and potential quality of living improvements for numerous states globally, are rather tangile. Regardless of the effect infrastructure has on societal well being (this is a hot button issue in developmental theory) it certainly can't hurt.
The other downside of this project is its potential environmental impact. China has energy infrastructure largely based on and reliant on coal. Coal is a heavy emitter of CO2. China is also a huge net importer of oil and gas. It's environmental track record is not good. Even so, in this area optimism is possible. Many of the approved projects from China and the AIIB revolve around clean energy projects. Solar power plants, wind farms, geothermal plants, and energy infrastructure updates to improve capacity and efficiency are all geared at reducing green house gas emissions. China is, after all, a signature of the Paris Accord, and has targeted greenhouse gas emissions as a key threat to Chinese stability.
A great read all and all, and much mer down to Earth than the average book on the BRI. This book is not overtly political, focusing on tangible costs and benefits, and discrediting the more hysterical analysis that happens in many a Western political rag (here's looking at you, the Economist). Much like the BRI, this book is not preachy, but does focus on real problems, real benefits, and real solutions. A fascinating read as a list of BRI projects, and how they are negotiated, funded and how they may benefit China and the world - as well as some of the key issues and concerns about the BRI. Very interesting read.
December 18, 2019
For the authors China is a person with a will of its own and its playing its own single player video game. What's great is that China for the authors is acting alone and the rest of the world is just a passive audience.
Displaying 1 - 2 of 2 reviews