The Levelling: What's Next After Globalization

by Michael O'Sullivan

A brilliant analysis of the transition in world economics, finance, and power as the era of globalization ends and gives way to new power centers and institutions.


The world is at a turning point similar to the fall of communism. Then, many focused on the collapse itself, and failed to see that a bigger trend, globalization, was about to take hold. The benefits of globalization--through the freer flow of money, people, ideas, and trade--have been many. But rather than a world that is flat, what has emerged is one of jagged peaks and rough, deep valleys characterized by wealth inequality, indebtedness, political recession, and imbalances across the world's economies.
These peaks and valleys are undergoing what Michael O'Sullivan calls "the levelling"--a major transition in world economics, finance, and power. What's next is a levelling-out of wealth between poor and rich countries, of power between nations and regions, of political accountability from elites to the people, and of institutional power away from central banks and defunct twentieth-century institutions such as the WTO and the IMF.
O'Sullivan then moves to ways we can develop new, pragmatic solutions to such critical problems as political discontent, stunted economic growth, the productive functioning of finance, and political-economic structures that serve broader needs.

The Levelling comes at a crucial time in the rise and fall of nations. It has special importance for the US as its place in the world undergoes radical change--the ebbing of influence, profound questions over its economic model, societal decay, and the turmoil of public life.

Genres: Economics, Nonfiction, Business, Politics, Society, International Relations, Audiobook

368 pages, Hardcover

Published May 28, 2019

Reviews

[Daniel · Rating 3 out of 5]

Globalisation is dead. What is next?
1. Low growth, too much debt, populism, nationalism, protectionism and political instability.
2. New multipolar world divided into 3 parts: US, Europe and China. 1 currency system (US$) but 3 different ways of doing things. Middle power countries (Russia, Japan and UK) will have to scramble.
3. World institutions such as IMF, WTO and UN will become irrelevant as countries deal directly with each other. New formations such as the Quad, and small advanced countries such as Singapore, and most rich European states will band together.
4. Central banks pumping too much liquidity into circulation. Economic fundamentals are now less important than how much liquidity is pumped into the system in deciding the stock price. This should be restrained.
5. Global warming is going to be catastrophic. A global warming authority should be set up to ensure rules are followed.
6. The solution to Low growth is intangible infrastructure such as health care, education, laws and institutions.

Overall a book with many good ideas. However it is amazing that Africa, the Middle East and Middle and South America are totally ignored. This is very typical of a American/British viewpoint. No wonder China is making so much inroads into all the ‘rest’.

[Mayim de Vries · Rating 2 out of 5]

[note on the rating] This is not a bad book, it's just that it aged prematurely as the author did not see the The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable of Covid-related madness that descended upon humanity in 2020 (The Balck Swan in a must-read, by the way).

Favourite quote: "Medicinal morphine is not supplied to patients on a continuous basis, and it is not known to cure cancer, heart disease, or other ailments. Central bankers, however, appear to have a different view of the uses of financial morphine." (mind you, that was before Mr Powell took the FED balance sheet to the moon)

[Pinar · Rating 2 out of 5]

Kendime niye böyle işkence ediyorum ben de bilmiyorum. En nefret ettiğim kitap tarzında yazılmış, böyle tarihten bi iki bişey al analojilerle bi yerlere bağla üzerine işte doğru yanlış tezlerini yapıştır, herkes yesin.

Kısaca özetliyim "levellers" diye İngiltere'de bir hareket var 1642-1651 arası, işte yönetim içindeki ve ordudaki yozlaşmanın önlenmesini ve demokratik hakları istiyorlar. Yazarın İngiliz olduğunu belirtmeme gerek yok sanırım. Yazar "levellers" hareketini tarihin, hadi biraz daha nazik yazayım dünya demokrasisi tarihinin başına en önemli hareket olarak yerleştirip, o hareketin talepleri gözüyle günümüz kapitalizmini değerlediriyor. Spoiler olacak: "levellers"in yaptıklarını yaparak kapitalizmin sorunlarıyla mücadele etmemiz gerektiğini söylüyor.

Sinir olduğum nokta dünyanın her tarafında otoriteye karşı daha farklı yönetim için halk hareketleri ve örgütlenmeler dünyanın çeşitli dönemlerinde çeşitli şekiller altında yer almışken illa bir İngiliz hareket bulmak en gerekli şey. Yani hani Fransızlar Devrim yapmışlar falan ama ona herhangi bi şekilde değinilmese de olur falan, Fransızların kendi aralarında yaptıkları bişey, dünya demokrasisine katkısı falan olmamış heralde.

Evet arada enteresan bilgiler veriyor. Fakat "Globalizasyon" veya dünya ekonomisinin sorunları olarak yoğun bir Amerikan/İngiliz merkezlilik olması beni bir miktar baydı. Bu sorunları çözmek için "levellers"in yaptığı gibi yapmalıyız kısmı zaten saçma sapan geldi.

Kitapta örnek liderler olarak Mustafa Kemal Atatürk, Helmut Kohl ve Ronald Regan'dan bahsediliyor. Bir miktar Türkiye'ye de satır arası değinmiş.

Neyse uzamıyım fazla içinde enteresan fikirler/bilgiler olmasına rağmen, bütününde "ingiliz tarihi çalışmış ekonomist bir ingilizin bakış açısıyla dünya sorunları nasıl görünüyor"un ötesine gidemeyen, mazoşist tarafımın ısrarıyla bitirdiğim bir kitap oldu.

[Molly Trammell · Rating 3 out of 5]

I’ll start off by saying that this is an incredibly in-depth and educational book by an obviously intelligent man. I just think it tries to encompass too many points to remain coherent. Full disclosure, I chose to read this for an MBA paper I’m writing and therefore had to finish reading, it otherwise it might have gone to collect dust on my “unfinished” pile. I think the book has amazing potential and includes some incredibly prescient and valid ideas for the future of our world; I just think it needed a bit more time on the cutting room floor so to speak. That said, if economics and geopolitics is your thing I don’t see a much better book than this one for our current times.

[LaanSiBB]

Claiming the death of globalisation without mentioning the Middle East, Africa, and South America.. the book is not completed.

[Liquidlasagna · Rating 1 out of 5]

His geopolitics is atrocious, but finance is his forte. The realist of political science Kenneth Waltz, said that Globalization was a fad of the 1990s.

So basically O'Sullivan tries to make sense of the pieces, why are the politics and economies all fucked up, and well, most people tend to think

this is an interesting book
but a really unconvincing book...

and on many different levels, to people with many different viewpoints.

I think people aren't happy with a story being told, and every story confirms his viewpoint on things.

.........

I don't think anyone has done a decent review of this book, which probably says something.

But this is about the best you'll find

Kirkus

While the book is somewhat of a structural patchwork, the concept of O’Sullivan’s Levelling presentation is fresh and...

A gloomy report on the end of globalization featuring a unique thesis that harkens back to 17th-century England.

O’Sullivan, the chief investment officer in the international wealth management division at Credit Suisse, first imparts a wealth of historical information to explain how the current sense of a “world turned upside down” is actually a transition phase not unlike the tail end of the previous period of global growth that occurred just before World War I.

Globalization, in short, is defunct, and following a huge expansion in world markets, trade, and financial institutions, it is all coming apart—as in the early decades of the previous century—due to protectionism, tariffs, rise in poverty, debt, ill-health, unemployment, inequality, protest voting, and right-wing policies.

The author begins his study with the depressing state of current affairs and then addresses the challenge of “darker scenarios that threaten the world we live in.”

He delineates a fascinating grassroots movement that erupted during the throes of the English civil war, one that might lend practical solutions for today.

The Levellers emerged as a democratic faction of Oliver Cromwell’s New Model Army, a “mongrel” group of regular people, soldiers, and tradespeople, both men and women, as opposed to the “Grandees” who held the power in Parliament. Over the course of several so-called Putney Debates in St. Mary’s Church in London in the 1640s, they laid out a case for “repairing the broken contract of trust between elected representatives and their electorates,” pleading for equality, accountability, responsibility, and transparency in government, along with unfettered trade and debt relief.

The ramifications of the Levellers’ demands later appeared in the revolutionary constitutions of America and France, and O’Sullivan also examines what Alexander Hamilton might have suggested as a solution for our current mess.

With a generous nod to the work of previous authors and experts, the author offers a solid synthesis of prognosis and practical solutions.

While the book is somewhat of a structural patchwork, the concept of O’Sullivan’s Levelling presentation is fresh and thought-provoking.


[i think i went from a 1-star to 2-stars because i think the book will be useful for looking at all those other authors and experts....]

If you collect books on globalization, like the thoroughly mediocre but still amusing ones like Thomas Friedman's stuff from the New York Times, oh this one is definately worth a dollar to add to the shelf...

Friedman's first book was an excellent work, but it was on the Middle East, but then he started writing neatly awful and oddball books, like The World is Flat, and well, those are all underwhelming, and starryeyed and wrong. Like a futurist puzzled by the lack of happy faces in the end.

And O'Sullivan rants about the bankers, and seems to borrow a little Huntington with the disillusionment that people have, and the whole Alexander Hamilton thing....

.....

There are approximately 1,010,300 words in the English language, but I could never string enough words together to properly express how much I want to hit you with a chair.
Alexander Hamilton, to Thomas Jefferson

A well adjusted person is one who makes the same mistake twice without getting nervous.
Alexander Hamilton

Give all the power to the many, they will oppress the few. Give all the power to the few, they will oppress the many.
Alexander Hamilton

Men are reasoning rather than reasonable animals.
Alexander Hamilton

The best we can hope for concerning the people at large is that they be properly armed.
Alexander Hamilton, The Federalist Papers

If we must have an enemy at the head of government, let it be one whom we can oppose, and for whom we are not responsible.
Alexander Hamilton

The truth unquestionably is, that the only path to a subversion of the republican system of the Country is, by flattering the prejudices of the people, and exciting their jealousies and apprehensions, to throw affairs into confusion, and bring on civil commotion.
Alexander Hamilton

If men were angels, no government would be necessary.
Alexander Hamilton

If all men were angels, there would be no CIA.
Richard Helms

The masses are asses.
Alexander Hamilton

........
.........

He's an interesting fellow, but not someone i care much for his viewpoints and writing style.

Went to Balliol College, taught Finance and Economics at Oxford and Princeton for a while.

Member of the World Economic Forum, Chief Investment Officer in the International Wealth Management Division of Credit Suisse.

Lead contributor to Credit Suisse’s think tank, the Credit Suisse Research Institute.

[Credit Suisse is about as shaky as Deutsche Bank]

Does work for the Times Literary Supplement, the Economist, the Financial Times, and the New Republic, and Forbes.

His piece this week is positively cringeworthy when he talks about geopolitics

"Tucker Carlson Duped By Putin in Bid To Weaken Support For Ukraine"

and it sounds like a piece written in 1977 more than anything else, with the amusing thing of
how all he likes to do is repeat the word 'maskirovka' seven times

sounded like a Steele Dossier fanatic if anything....

..........

one unusual review

'His call for a revival o demoracies under siege in Britain, the US, and elsewhere is critical for the stable, productive, and peaceful world we all seek.
Nicholas Burns, Harvard Univierity, former under secretary of State

.........

Amazone

I can’t pretend that I understood the whole of the book but honestly I couldn’t put it down. It opened my eyes. I’m Chapter 8 (called A Multipolar World) it says that the world is moving towards three poles based around China, the US and Europe (possibly with India as a 4th one).

Susan

.........

here is a strange one

Inside Higher Education

The Levelling, Higher Education, and the End of Globalization

A frustrating book that introduces an important conversation.

The thesis of The Levelling is that we are at the end of the age of globalization. The book argues that our integrated world of institutions, brands, and trade is being replaced by something that is less interconnected.

The end of globalization is not an idea that I had previously given much thought to before reading The Levelling. Sure, the signs are all around. Brexit, Trump, and Trump's trade wars are all rejections of a globalized order.

If O'Sullivan is right, and the reversals of international connectivity are part of a long-term shift as opposed to a short-term blip, then what might be the implications for higher ed?

Today, over 1 million international students enroll in US colleges and universities. The percentage of all international students that choose to attend school in the US has dropped since 2016, but the US still leads the world in educating global learners.

The largest sending countries for university students are China (351,000), India (186,000), South Korea (59,000), and Saudi Arabia (53,000).

The largest 3 majors for International students are engineering (21%), business (19%), and computer science / math (15%). Undergraduate students (450,000) slightly outnumber graduate students (400,000).

Higher education is among America's most important export sectors. International students support directly or indirectly over 450,000 jobs. The provision of education and credentialing to international students generates over $42 billion each year. Our higher education trade surplus is over $34 billion.

Recently, however, the international student higher ed news has not been good. The number of international students fell 3.3 percent in 2016 and then dropped a further 6.9 percent in 2017.

We don't know if the Trump administration's diplomatic and immigration policies will further drive down the flows of international students.

China is also investing massively in building out the scale and quality of its postsecondary system.

The good news for higher education, perhaps, is that I remain unconvinced by the central reverse-globalization thesis of The Levelling.

O'Sullivan writes that academics are blind to the realities of the new localism. So this may be a blindspot.

I found the arguments of The Levelling unconvincing because I had trouble following the book's logic. O'Sullivan has created a mix of trend analysis with anecdotal observation.

Rather than developing a hypothesis to be tested with the data, he uses every story as confirmation of his conclusions.

On a basic level, I was never able to connect precisely how a failed 17th-century political movement (the Levellers) fits with today's retrograde politics of immigrant-bashing.

O'Sullivan's concern with levels of inequality, indebtedness, and climate change is admirable - but I was unconvinced by his culprits of central bankers.

A better book on intangible infrastructure - O'Sullivan's term for the health and human capital and well-being of a population - lurks within The Levelling.

For those wishing to understand the future of higher education through a globalization lens, The Levelling will be a frustrating read.

I think that the story of global demand for US higher education is yet to be written. I'd argue that we have opportunities to expand the number of international students, but only if we accelerate investments in alternative and lower-cost educational models. If I'm right, in 20 years our schools will be more global in outlook and practices. And that we will educate an even higher proportion of international students relative to native-born.

This view of the globalization of American higher education runs directly counter to the arguments of The Levelling. What the book does do is remind us that succeeding on the global stage is not a foregone conclusion. Our colleges and universities will need to prioritize the education of international students. This global strategy will require that we do some things differently than we are doing now.

What community of practice is engaged in discussions at the intersection of higher education change and globalization?

...........

[Brandon Nas · Rating 4 out of 5]

The author and financier, Michael O’Sullivan, discusses recent global trends punctuated with historical anecdotes to make bold and prescient predictions about geopolitics in the 21st century. Namely, he predicts the demise of America’s superpower status, and concomitantly the collapse of the world order and institutions it developed in the twentieth century. Competing spheres of influence, new international norms and rules will emerge around a China-centric Asia, a mature European Union, and the waning US-centered Americas. New alliances and agreements may emerge amongst the successful and highly globalized small states; United States, Japan, Australia and India; and Russia, China, and Pakistan. International politics will be divided between governments who espouse democracy, free societies, the rule of law, and social development with those that offer the promise of economic growth in exchange for social control.

The author sees the issues of out of control global debts and unchecked central banks, as central to sustainable economic growth. He calls for a global debt conference to negotiate rules about alarming financial practices like quantitative easing and the use of central banks as geopolitical tools. Only a massive global depression is likely to yield such an agreement though.

The disconnect between politicians globally and people, and the corresponding underinvestment in human development and rising inequalities, may lead to radical actions such as the disintegration of traditional political parties. New banks and new institutions need to be developed to deal with the problems of the 21st century: climate change, inequality, stable but reduced economic growth, human genetic manipulation, cyber warfare, and other disruptive technologies. The author’s hope is that the Levellers populist movement during the English Civil War can be an example of how caustic and discredited democracies can be refashioned for the twenty-first century. Unfortunately, the Levelers were eventually marginalized by the old order, and so too might any new political reforms within China, the Republican Party, the EU, or elsewhere. As O’Sullivan admits, it will likely take massive economic, environmental and other crises to bring about the sorts of reforms and new institutions he calls for.

[Bennett Jarvis · Rating 2 out of 5]

All around, not a great read. He’s coming from a perspective of finance and makes some interesting points there and he’s certainly educated on that matter. But he seems to enjoy toying with ideas about a new world order from a very Western financial perspective that just don’t feel tethered to reality. His inspiration, the Levellers of the English Civil War, while definitely a good example of grassroots demands for political responsibility, just doesn’t make a lot of sense to me here.

[Bernard Sia · Rating 4 out of 5]

A tad idealistic in positing moving forward approaches post globalization.
And factually got turned off when they mentioned Malaysia and Thailand as part of the LEviathan party with heavy investment in Genetic Engineering and military... urgh

[Yaser Had · Rating 2 out of 5]

I couldn’t finish the book because it’s boring and and repeats itself. You need to a short brief about the book search for “ multipolar order “ articles on google, you will get better understanding and summarized.

[Yunling · Rating 4 out of 5]

決定國家發展成就的核心在於能否形成ㄧ個實踐永續價值的道德主體。

西發里亞合約1648年

已經經歷兩次全球化使貿易提升，金融體系成長、運輸通訊使經商成本降低。1）以前是世界從貧窮、農業為主的轉變，但2）第二次全球化以前，已是富裕和貧窮的國家有明顯分歧了。目前和19世紀的差異是各種國際機構和跨國治理的成長。

為什麼過度擴張導致分崩離析沒人發現？轉折在哪？經濟模型怎沒預測到？

四個問題：1）美中經濟衰退；中國斷層多、美國擴長力耗盡。2）二十年來國際金融失衡、債務過高。3）世界秩序誰說的算之外，民主不是某些國家經濟成長的先決條件。4）人到底要什麼，不是國家政府強權經濟體要什麼。

這段（ch5 p135)還在消化…
政治衰退指的是什麼，為何稱是回應全球金融危機？
在金融危機後、許多學者研究發現，極右派得票率有明顯高的現象。動亂頻繁。同時，現在與以前動盪不同的是暴力更多是發生在網路、而不是街上。許多新政黨會主張反全球化和反自由民主、反移民，更強調非經濟問題。

既有政黨偏離政治精神因為許多歷史事件、歷史人物對同政黨年輕一輩已無關聯和意義。政治循環週期從熱情、成長管理、確立，衰退、消亡（被取代）。大黨開始分裂。

現在已不是左、右派，而是局內、局外人。

景氣循環影響政治人物如何聲稱自己的功蹟。

經濟變差，主因生產力變低（國家別），且投資人對世界沒什麼信心。同時，1）多極世界，平衡把部分拿回本國、部分才投資到世界各地。2）社會脫序、人類發展不足。社會團結低。同時人口老化。

國家的興衰可從金融市場看出，貨幣價值。

認識央行變重要～1694英國，1668瑞典央行。金融風暴後1913美聯邦準備美聯行。

原先量化寬鬆是手段，但變成常態後嚴重影響市場。

央行在量化寬鬆後變整個市場。1）擁有大部分債卷，有些如日本央行擁有3%股市、60%指數基金，在日本830公司之前10。2）單向擁擠的投資部位，難跟央行交易也難市場套利。（投資人不重視基本面）造成投高股息、高風險跟著央行走的資本錯置misallocation

第一條斷層線：財富不平等；有錢的利率低更能滾錢、沒錢的利率高還不了錢。2018市值比1929、2000都還高。第二條政治、市場、QE關連的警報。歐元債卷收益率與各國經濟健康程度有關；原先是德國債卷比義大利好，但QE變成看不出來。

美國2018開始退QE
1維持現狀，2財政政策（太晚），3全球協議（作者支持）

各國債務問題的解決是當務之急卻動不得～譬如說中國；義大利是全球最大債券市場之一，公債和特定國有資產掛勾來解決或擔保。每個歐元區都只能發行60-70%債務縮小風險。

目前仍是單極全球化的領域是金融，仍是華爾街說的算，美銀還是剩過亞銀。
多極化表現在軍事政治網絡。歐盟、美國、中國是極點（俄羅斯還不算，只是關鍵角色，但俄國沒有制度化，經濟相當脆弱）

Bancor
凱因斯曾提過這種超國家貨幣，IMF就有special drawing rights

網路法
重要的公共財，歐洲沒什麼重要科技公司，美國是25%股市以上。中國是與政府關係密切。
1）個人資料保護，2）網路上的治理，3）網路犯罪

歐洲～目前沒有共識，需要共同財務長。
中國～消費同西方成長。基礎建設缺乏，特別自付醫療佔GDP72%(france 27%)。退休金問題。研究和實際進入國際。
美國（漢彌爾頓）：仍在軍事擴張。基因發展，沒有法律規範複製人、動物基因等的風險。長期失業的問題～中小企業以及員工的培訓，收入稅和社會影響的關係討論（高收入者不一定對社會正向影響）

[Emily Paulin · Rating 1 out of 5]

I got tired of this book very quickly and put it down at the end of the fourth chapter (page 102). It's marketed as a book about economics and politics, but the writer does remarkably little to explain or justify the claims he makes about these areas and grounds his claims more in popular literature and history than in economic or political literature. While the arguments he makes about recent trends are generally true, I think they're better made in The Changing World Order by Ray Dalio or other publications, and he does very little to explain why the solutions he proposes could have practical application or actually work. The book is also extremely badly organized.

The book is wrapped in a comparison to the Levellers, a political movement around the time of Cromwell in England. The comparison is relevant, but it leads to long, unnecessary descriptions of the political movement that detracted from my attention to the rest of the book. Just write a book about the Levellers (and market it that way!) if you want to do that.

I was excited to read this book, but it was a waste of time.

[Brian Katz · Rating 3 out of 5]

An interesting perspective about what follows globalization given geopolitical events like Brexit and the election in the US of Donald Trump. As with many authors, this one underestimates the United States and its resolve. A mistake. The premise is worth noting that globalism is on the decline. But the author does not look at the different parts of globalism. While I agree that some countries are attempting to close their borders to mass illegal immigration, this does not hold true for the economic side of this. The author argues, and fails, in attributing the US trade disputes with China as evidence that the US wants to close it borders to trade. But that is far from the truth. The trade disputes are about being fair, not about closing borders to trade. My view is that trade will continue its global expansion, even if some countries seek to protect their borders from the current mass immigration waves that are falling on the shores of Europe and the US.

It is interesting that he posits three large poles (US, EU, China) as the dominate forces after globalization is over. It’s sort of a no brained, short of a war to change the map as it is today.

Finally, I do agree with him on some points. In particularity he argues that certain institutions like the Federal Reserve Board, the ECB and other central banks all with the WTO and UN have outlived their usefulness to society.

[Samm Cadwell · Rating 4 out of 5]

The author makes a good case for the world moving from a globalized world with one hegemon to a a multipolar hegemonic world. This time through I listened to the audio book, which was a mistake. I was unable to listen to this book a thoroughly as I should when I was doing other things. I plan to read it again in text form, but I do not know when I will do that.

[Lisa · Rating 4 out of 5]

3.5 stars. I thought this book was interesting and well-written. I don’t have a background in finance so some of the chapters on fiscal policy and economics (i.e. Westphalia) were very new to me, but I did learn a lot (also slightly repetitive at times). I agree with previous comments, however, that without covering African, South American and Middle Eastern markets, the book is incomplete.

[Ietrio · Rating 1 out of 5]

At first, I thought this is a novel. A beetle wakes up in Spring and these are its musings: The Levelling, What's Next After the Winter? But the rigid and unimaginative writing style convinced me that O'Sullivan actually believes in his fairy tale.

[Alexander Slocombe · Rating 4 out of 5]

Very compelling considering the dry material. Provides a bit of hope for Post Brexit UK/EU. Forecasts another financial meltdown, provides solutions to existing issues. Worthwhile read if you’re interested in IR or global economics

[Kathy Cowie · Rating 3 out of 5]

To be reviewed in the September-October 2019 issue of Global Business and Organizational Excellence.

[Manik Kalra · Rating 5 out of 5]

An excellent piece of literature for those interested in inter linkages between politics, economy, finance and how it has shaped our history along with how the future will look it.

[Paul · Rating 4 out of 5]

Well done. I don't read a lot of these kinds of "state of the world" books because they become dated quickly, and any predictions are mostly or all wrong (simply because it is nearly impossible to predict the future). However, I really enjoyed this analysis. It is intelligent and pretty comprehensive for the material it covers. I plan to read similar books for contrast and perspective, but I learned a number of things, and got some perspective on events and the evolution of economic issues and historical events I hadn't had. Recommended.

There were some formatting issues and typos in the digital advanced copy, but I'm sure they'll be addressed in the final version. I really appreciate the free copy for review!