I read this report as a part of the World Bank's training called "The Future of Work: Preparing for Disruption" so this review may contain information from the course as well as the report, but the report is a great summary of how our global economy is changing.
There are incredible advancements in technology that are growing exponentially that can have a disruptive impact on the global economy. The big fear is that artificial intelligence, automation, and other technologies will leave our current workforce unemployed. However, This fear is not shared by the World Bank. Technological progress has always been present, but those new technologies have not eliminated work, but rather changed it. For example, in the 1800s, 90% of the U.S. population lived on farms, but now there is only 1%. We are currently producing more food than ever and we don't have massive unemployment. How did this happen? The invention of the tractor made agriculture work more efficient, which meant fewer laborers were needed on the farm. This new productivity gave way for workers to work in new industries in the future such as manufacturing, technology, finance, transportation, etc. In this case, technology did not eliminate jobs. Actually, because of its ability to increase productivity, it created an environment that could hold more jobs, and create new ones. This example gives us reason to believe that this technological wave can do something similar!
However, don't breathe a sigh of relief just yet. Historically, technology has increased jobs due to productivity gains, but this doesn't come without its costs. Technology has the ability to disrupt our labor market. Overall job numbers will improve, but many jobs will cease to exist in the process as new jobs pop up. What does this mean for those whose jobs become obsolete? Will they have to develop new skills? How long would that take? What if they are not supported in the process? If workers aren't prepared to change the way they work, how can they fill these new needed jobs? What about the populations that don't have access to these new technologies? These questions present the problem of how our global workforce is not quite prepared for the technological shift.
This is the challenge the World Bank aims to tackle. The difference between this technological wave and the previous one is the speed at which the technology is being developed and distributed. For example, it took the telephone 75 years to reach 100 million users, while the mobile phone took 16 years, the worldwide web took 7 years, Facebook took 4 years, and Pokemon Go took 1 month. The pace at which technology is being adopted is exponentially growing. This is exponential growth is true for firms as well! Alibaba grew exponentially faster than Walmart, Airbnb grew exponentially faster than Hilton, and Uber grew exponentially faster than the standard use of a taxi. All of these companies grew at unbelievable rates with no need for physical capital! This is insane!
What challenges have arisen from this exponential growth? Well, for those who have jobs with mostly repetitive tasks, their jobs become obsolete, while those who have high cognitive, digital, and social skills reap the rewards. This can create worrisome economic inequality that only benefits a minority of highly educated workers. Additionally, rural areas and developing countries that don't have access to new technologies will also be left out of productivity gains, exacerbating inequality. Firms that grow at such fast rates move faster than government regulation, which has given rise to the gig economy where workers are now "sub-contractors" and have no healthcare benefits or insurance benefits. These "sub-contractors" also don't have the same labor protections as usual employees.
This new technological revolution has the possibility to improve a lot of aspects of our lives, but we need to properly prepare our workforce for it. This means investing in early childhood development to prepare our future workforce for a changing economy, setting up lifelong learning systems for current workers that are flexible for working families, making sure that access to necessary technology is universal, providing social insurance to lessen the blow of employment shocks, and changing labor market regulation that accounts for current changes to the economic landscape.
The future of our economy could be amazing, but it will only be so if everyone has the opportunity to participate in it. We can't let these great technological advancements lead to an unequal world.