The Russia Trap: How Our Shadow War with Russia Could Spiral into Nuclear Catastrophe

by George Beebe

“A must read for anyone who cares about our nation's security in these cyber-serious, hair-trigger times.” – Susan Eisenhower

Every American president since the end of the Cold War has called for better relations with Russia. But each has seen relations get worse by the time he left office. Now the two countries are facing off in a virtual war being fought without clear goals or boundaries.

Why? Many say it is because Washington has been slow to wake up to Russian efforts to destroy democracy in America and the world.

But a former head of Russia analysis at the CIA says that this misunderstands the problem. George Beebe argues that new game-changing technologies, disappearing rules of the game, and distorted perceptions on both sides are combining to lock Washington and Moscow into an escalatory spiral that they do not recognize. All the pieces are in place for a World War I-type tragedy that could be triggered by a small, unpredictable event. The Russia Trap shows that anticipating this danger is the most important step in preventing it.

Genres: Politics, History, Russia, Nonfiction, Audiobook

240 pages, Hardcover

First published September 3, 2019

About the author

George Beebe is Vice President and Director of Studies at the Center for the National Interest. He spent more than two decades in government service as an intelligence analyst, diplomat, and policy advisor, including service as director of CIA’s Russia analysis and as Special Advisor to Vice President Cheney for Russia/Eurasia and Intelligence Programs. He was inducted into the Senior Intelligence Service in 2006 and left government service in 2009.

Reviews

[AcademicEditor · Rating 4 out of 5]

This is an interesting take on the current and future state of affairs with Russia. The message is ultimately a warning one as it draws on historical precedents. It is, of course, hard to say what motivations will ultimately drive Russia's relations with the West to a breaking point or not, but it is something we all need to prepare ourselves for. The tone is not overly scholastic, so this book should be accessible to more casual observers of politics and world events.

Thanks to NetGalley and the publishers for a digital ARC.

[notformebabesbooks · Rating 5 out of 5]

Okay, this book was actually so captivating and interesting. The author explained everything so clearly about the rising tension between the US and Russia, and while it was a little terrifying, it still left room for hope.

[Jim Flynn · Rating 3 out of 5]

Well written, but too soft on Russia. I am very skeptical given Putin's anti-democratic and aggressive actions.

[Stephen Leary · Rating 4 out of 5]

Author George Beebe examines US-Russian relations in light of technological advances, misperceptions, and cyberwarfare. I admire the even-handed scholarly approach without overt political partisanship. But the author's worries of nuclear catastrophe between the US and Russia seem overblown at this point, despite Putin's belligerence. Russia is more likely to harm itself, such as with the recent nuclear explosion in Arkhangelsk, or its immediate neighbors. Can the US maintain both liberty and order, Beebe asks, against the threat of dysfunctional governance in the 21st century? Oddly, Beebe inserts near the end of the book this quote from an anti-Trump writer: "...the idea that the US democracy is vulnerable to outside meddling and ineradicable suspicion that the elected president and those loyal to him may have colluded with a foreign country." Beebe knows very well this Trump-Russia collusion narrative is nonsense, yet he undercuts the credibility that he has built up throughout the book by including it in his effort to underline a nation with an acute sense of internal vulnerability. But a worthwhile and recommended read.

[Alina · Rating 4 out of 5]

"The Russia Trap" is a great book that combines a political and economic history of Russia. This book is direct, short and up to the point guide for anyone who is not familiar with the history of Russia after the Cold War. Not only the author introduces the reader to the history of one of the largest countries in the world, but he also explains the relationship between US and Russia, or in other words - "the war behind the scene".

This book would be a perfect present for any political or eastern European enthusiast. Thank you, NetGalley and Thomas Dunne Books publisher for a free and advanced copy of the book.

[Dylan Matthews · Rating 4 out of 5]

Part of my project to get through some of the dozens of books I picked up from Vox and Washington Post promo piles over the years.

This is a funny book to read in 2025. When it was written, the main Russia story was the 2016 election hack and accusations of collusion with Trump, and Beebe is writing with that political context in mind. Obviously it’s somewhat dated, if also somewhat prescient. There’s a hypothetical scenario he draws that culminates in Russia launching a full invasion of Eastern Ukraine; the details are different (he sketches a religious battle over control of the Orthodox Church) but the end result is similar to what happened. Aging less well is his reference to the 2024 “power transition” when Putin steps down due to term limits.

I wouldn’t recommend to most people today because it’s so of its moment, but the broad point that US-Russia competition can easily spiral out of control in ways that pose unreasonable risks of nuclear escalation is well taken and more relevant than ever.

[Robert Clarke · Rating 5 out of 5]

The Russia Trap, written by the former director of the CIA's Russia analysis team and senior advisor on Russian affairs to the White House, is a critically important challenge to the dominant foreign policy perception and approach to Moscow.

Bebee articulately explores the slow burn escalation spiral we've found ourselves in with Russia, with leaders in Washington and Moscow both proverbially shooting past each other time and again in trying to signal deterrence and resolve.

Written in 2019, the book seems prescient - warning of the increasing likelihood that the path we were on would lead to crisis. As the war in Ukraine grinds on, it forces one to grapple with whether or not we could have avoided this bloodshed by fundamentally rethinking our policy approaches sooner. As risks of direct escalation continue to grow in Ukraine, the changes Bebee calls for remain essential to forging a better future between the United States and Russia.

[Almantas · Rating 5 out of 5]

Autorius siekia parodyti dabartinę Vakarų/JAV ir Rusijos konfrontaciją kitu kampu. Šiandienos įprastinis žiūrėjimas į Rusiją yra iš prieš 2-ojo pasaulinio karo perspektyvos. Autorius siekia skaitytoją įtikinti, kad vertėtų į visa tai žiūrėti iš prieš 1-ojo pasaulinio karo perspekyvos, t.y. tada, kada Rusija buvo žlunganti valstybė ir buvo pasiruošusi padaryti viską, kad ji atrodytų stipresnė ir sustabdytų savo žlugimą. Autorius jau beveik ir pasiekia skaitytojų protus ir širdis savo argumentais, tačiau prisimeni, pasižiūri, kad knyga išleista 2019 m., t.y. dar prieš 2022 m. plataus masto neišprovokuotą Rusijos invaziją į Ukrainą. Pasirodo autorius klysta. Jo aprašomi Rusijos plataus masto karo su Ukraina scenarijai visai nepasiteisina. Panašu, kad čia matome dar vieną kelią gerais keinimais grįstą.

[Mandy · Rating 4 out of 5]

A thoughtful and insightful exploration of the relationship between the USA and Russia and the many pitfalls that perhaps could be avoided by a deeper understanding between these two very different nations. I found the book accessible – not always the case with political tomes – and convincing. I don’t feel qualified to judge whether Beebe is correct in his assertions and analysis but I certainly found the book thought-provoking and it offers much to ponder on.

[Derek · Rating 5 out of 5]

Amazing essay of the West's current relationship with the Federation of Russia which fundamentally changed how I view this difficult situation by providing historical context and driving factors from both the Russian and American lens. Politically conscious citizens will get a lot out of this relatively short read.

[Max Volovik · Rating 3 out of 5]

Полезное относительно объективное изложение геополитических разногласий между РФ и США последние 30 лет.

[David Farrell · Rating 5 out of 5]

The Russia Trap was one of the better books I've read in the last few years on the state of U.S. - Russia relations in the post Cold War period. The book included analysis and context of recent cyber, information, and proxy war events that strain the relationship and highlighted the risks that stem from allowing strategic arms control agreements to atrophy. Mr. Beebe demonstrated how both sides misread each other based on their domestic political influences, lack of appreciation of the other's geopolitical perspectives, overly simplistic thinking on cooperation and competition, and lack of resilience measure built into the relationship that could result in escalation mismanagement during times of crisis. I enjoyed how Mr. Beebe used examples from complex systems theory to examine strategic issues and differing national security interests between the two countries. He stressed the need to not view the U.S. relationship with Russia as linear with single solutions - but rather we must address multiple variables in the system simultaneously to have desired effects, create balance, or change behaviors. The only way to understand those variables is to commit to deepening our knowledge of Russian history, politics, interests, culture, and leadership - a commitment that has atrophied since the end of the Cold War.