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超級智能時代:智慧革命中,前2%的人掌握世界,其餘98%將被淘汰

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世界經濟論壇:第四次工業革命來臨,2020年前,將有500萬個工作機會消失……

  第一次工業革命,瓦特帶來了蒸汽機;
  第二次工業革命,愛迪生發明了電氣;
  電腦的發明,讓我們迎來資訊革命;
  若你還在適應資訊革命,來勢洶洶的第四次工業革命──智慧革命,
  將讓你在超級智能時代成為被機器取代的革命犧牲者。
    
  曾於谷歌、騰訊擔任要職,同時也是約翰霍普金斯大學工學院董事會董事的作者吳軍,
  同時身為研究者與科技人,用最深入淺出的文字告訴我們,
  什麼是人工智慧?什麼是大數據?
  這些對一般人來說很模糊的概念,又會怎麼影響我們的生活?

  ◎現有產業+人工智慧=新產業
  未來的農業、製造業、體育界、醫療、律師,甚至記者編輯,所有產業都將迎來嶄新的變化。

  ◎農業+人工智慧=滴灌技術
  乾旱國家以色列,在年降水量只有兩百毫米的狀態下,利用自動化的電腦控制,將沙漠變成綠洲──甚至成為農產品出口大國,被譽為歐洲的廚房。

  ◎體育+人工智慧=金州勇士隊
  長期來的送分球隊勇士隊,在數據分析的管理之下,除了打造出神射手明「咖哩」,還創下全賽季82場獲勝73場的紀錄──從吊車尾晉升冠軍球隊。

  ◎製造業+人工智慧=特斯拉
  先取消代理商制度,藉此壓低成本;從不雇用生產線人員,員工只有IT人員。在引進大數據與人工智慧,讓汽車這個老行業脫胎換骨後──自動駕駛汽車問世。

  當AlphaGo打敗世界圍棋冠軍李世乭,
  電腦的獲勝,正式宣告了智慧時代的來臨,
  許多人開始感到危機,害怕有一天機器會搶走人的飯碗……
  但機器不會控制人類,只有製造出那些機器智慧的人可以。
  而我們能做的,就是了解正在發生的技術改革,面對現實。
  一旦抓住智慧革命的機運,你會發現這場革命將是人類的勝利。

  每次的技術革命,都帶來半世紀的動盪,我們為了不再重蹈覆轍,
  唯有讓自己成為革命下的受益者──成為前2%的人。
  那麼,要如何才能進入前2%的行列?
  很簡單,正面擁抱這場智慧革命。

名人推薦

  創新工場創辦人/李開復
  中華民國人工智慧學會理事長/吳毅成

  智慧推薦!

  「這是一本我認為跟《必然》同樣重要,甚至更有現實意義的年度好書。大量的工作崗位消失,大量的人被迫離開自己熟悉的環境和生活,大量的人在新的社會撕裂中陷入命運的顛簸。你會是領跑者嗎?」──邏輯思維 羅胖

  「這是一部近代科技的歷史書,也是一部科普書,也可以說是一本指導創新的教科書。」──中國工程院院士 鄔賀銓

  「即將到來的這個智慧時代,人類將遭遇前所未有的不連續性。如何在新的時代裡生存,跨越底層認知的不連續性,……如何在智慧時代跨越思維的不連續性?此書也許是尋求答案時最恰當的一本。──混沌大學創始人 李善友

351 pages, Paperback

Published November 16, 2016

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250 reviews16 followers
August 15, 2018
While the market is already flooded with books and news articles addressing how artificial intelligence (A.I.) will ruthlessly disrupt and transform numerous industries, this book differentiates itself by placing such technological advancement within a grand, historical framework of how human beings have for millennia strived to decipher how the world actually works and make reliable predictions through various types of data and modeling. In this vein, the recent development of A.I. is but the latest chapter in our never-ending quest to understand, predict, and manage everything that goes around us.

As the author explains, one huge breakthrough comes from a paradigm shift that sees researchers substitute a mechanical worldview in which anything can be boiled down to a handful of complicated mathematical models for a more probabilistic one, i.e. most of what goes on in the world are way too complex to be fully captured in a deterministic way, so a more pragmatic approach is through probability modeling. Coupled with rapidly increasing amounts of data, ever cheaper cloud storage, and significantly faster computing power, the field of A.I. has been experiencing a strong resurgence since late 1990s and there is no signs of slowing down.

The latter part of the book explains how major tech companies like Google, Facebook, and Amazon have built up a nearly insurmountable competitive advantage through the sheer massive volumes of data they have long accumulated and analyzed, which have helped optimized and personalized their products and services.
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