A REVOLUTIONARY AND DISARMINGLY SIMPLE ROAD MAP FOR INVESTORS IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY
People today are inundated with advice, opinions, and information about how to invest. The more data you accumulate, the thinking goes, the better decisions you’ll make. In The Either/OrInvestor, global investment strategist Clark Winter shows that the opposite is the case, introducing a revelatory way of thinking about the markets based on finding and assessing just enough of the right information and using your common sense.
According to Winter, investing comes down to making choices. All great investors employ an “either/or” filter for evaluating and simplifying the many investment opportunities available to them. The Either/Or Investor reveals how you can emulate this thought process while remaining realistic about your own goals and needs and gives you the tools to choose among the options that modern investors face, such as:
• fear versus greed: In an anxious post-9/11 world, discover when it’s smart to make an aggressive financial move. • developed world versus developing world: Find out if you should stick with opportunities in the United States or risk those available in the emerging economies of China, Russia, India, Mexico, and Turkey. • anti-immigration versus migration of talent: Learn to evaluate the products that immigrants introduce to the rest of the world in order to assess the value in investing in American companies that cater to new immigrant groups. • too much information versus too little information: Use the Internet, newspapers, and TV to your advantage. (For example, get the pros and cons about China’s growing economic power so you can become informed enough to act.) • rising interest rates versus falling interest rates: Understand how changing interest rates are a good barometer for how to spend your money.
Winter shows how anyone can learn to make sound decisions in a changing world by discerning trends early in an investment cycle, and then taking advantage of these trends or steering clear. Winter also explains how to choose a money manager and how to determine what the next investment opportunities might be.
Armed with Winter’s methods, any investor can improve his or her own investment prowess. The Either/Or Investor is a way–both judicious and daring–for choosing a better future.
Black and white doesn't typically fair well in a world of gray. The premise of this book is developing a binary system of evaluation to avoid potential stock pitfalls during examination of different companies. Winter focuses more on protecting wealth then gaining it, as seen in his first rule: "Don't lose money". Easier said then done in investing. What he means by this is do no harm to your portfolio, and only make decisions that are from a protected vantage. The issue I have with this book is it promotes active self management of a portfolio. That is probably the best way to make money, but its also incredibly difficult and risky, and most are unwilling to do it. Obviously if I had bought Amazon or google 20 years ago, that would have led to windfalls, but that is so rare as to be almost absurd to advocate towards.
"You are the solution to a money managers problems, they may not be the solution to yours." Often all to true unfortunately.
Each time investors say “this time its different”, head the other way.
The first half is a basic macro-economic review of markets. The second half describes a number of binary decision points to evaluate stocks. The author makes a point of not actually offering any stock tips, but in the beginning of the book he does talk up GM and trash Ford. Good idea not to give any stock tips. Maybe in 5 or 10 years he'll be right again, but not now. The first half of the book was very basic. The second half was better. Any of the either/or decisions he mentions are pretty obvious, but the point is they all come together to help create a story that guides your investments. Another thing to note: this book teaches how to think, but it doesn't give you what to think about. The decisions he describes in the book are examples, not the end all list. The book has a strong focus on international investing, but does this by suggesting you evaluate and compare countries. I listened to this in audio. The narrating was fine, although a bit slow to be precise and to add some drama.
Audio book was dry, and perhaps was exacerbated by the droopy voice of the reader. Still, didn't feel the book contained any "Aha!" moments. Considering that it's a 2008 book in 2013 made me doubt some of the advice.
Finance is a crapshoot at the lower levels. He answered the question of why a great company with great stock value doesn't go up. To me, that's proof of how random and illogical the market is. "It could go up, then again, it could go down." Thanks for that enlightening insight.
He mentions taking notes, explaining how jotting down a rivalry between Mexican politicals could be a piece of useful information 3 years down the road during an election. This does not seem practical, nor feasible, for the non-Wall Street investor.
I give it 2 stars because it did have some useful information and basic directives to live by: keep an open mind, keep the risks down, and don't stick with just the US. The rest was fluff.
The concept of the book is great: whittling investing choices down to binary decisions. This would be a good book for a novice investor or an intermediate person who has read more advice than they know what to do with. Do not go into this book thinking it is an investing methodology though, it is more a book on how to think about investing.
A book on how to think about investing. "Keep an open mind (don’t have to like a country’s politics or a company’s business to earn a good return). Don’t invest in illegal but consider all opportunities neutrally and equally with a mixture of knowledge, skepticism and healthy worldview." "Immigration is good for investors. brings in new customers, new incentives to innovate, nw markets, new competitors, new capital formation. make up in sales taxes what take out of municipal services. They start more new businesses, new employment. bring talent, hopes, dreams, skills – postindustrial. Wrong to oppose immigration from an investment or cultural perspective." "Remember 10 is 14 ahead of 4 back in investment."