战后日本经济史：从喧嚣到沉寂的70年

by Yukio Noguchi, 野口悠纪雄, 张玲 (Translator)

日本如何在第二次世界大战后的废墟中迅速实现了经济复兴？是什么力量推动日本经济走上了高速发展之路？曾经喧嚣一时的“泡沫经济”到底是如何产生，又终究归于破灭？将近 30 年的沉寂之后，日本的未来，路在何方？

在日本举国上下都沉浸在辉煌盛世的狂热气氛中时，野口悠纪雄率先对“房地产泡沫”提出了公开警告。如今，当日本逐渐被世界经济的大潮抛在身后，而“安倍经济学”却收效甚微之际，野口悠纪雄又通过本书，将多年思索和追问的答案公之于众。

野口悠纪雄在书中追忆，其人生的最初影像始于 1945 年东京大空袭中的恐怖经历，他这一代人亲历和参与了战后日本经济发展的整个过程。他们曾为高速发展的无限风光而豪情满怀，也曾因经济失速后的衰落萧条而五味杂陈。他们中有很多人因时代的变幻而饱受命运的捉弄，或者被无情地湮没在时代的洪流之中。

本书论述经济发展历程及其深层机制的同时，还穿插介绍了野口悠纪雄本人及其好友、同事的大量真实经历，为读者还原出一幅幅生动、立体的战后日本社会经济图景。相信无论是野口悠纪雄对经济问题冷峻犀利的剖析，还是他对往昔经历满含深情的回望，都会为读者带来不同凡响的阅读体验。

Genres: Japan, History

320 pages, Paperback

First published January 1, 2008

Reviews

[Henry · Rating 5 out of 5]

- Japan began tighten interest rate in December 1989. While stock dropped, because interest rate in the Japanese system doesn't affect the housing market, the housing market did not calm. In fact - the Japanese sees stock dip and housing market not dipping, they quickly conclude that the Japanese housing market can never dip

- Stock began dipping in the 1990s and the housing market followed the trend in 1991. However, the Japanese don't even realize the Japanese market is in decline while it is in decline

- When president Bush puked on the Japanese PM and the Japanese PM had to help the American president, the thought in most Japanese's mind is "Japan is now more powerful than the US"

- In the 80s, Japanese student studied abroad in mass. Today, the population of Japanese students in the US is so abysmal, it's listed under "others"

- Strange things: author believe strange things ought to stop eventually. By strange things, author mean the when people work hard yet can't afford to live well, whereas others who can just seemingly use financial wizary to make a killing. Such event can't last long because they'll eventually run out of people to work (people would just all begin to do financial wizary)

[Road]

相較於從頭到尾嚴肅的數據理論寫作，作者以從二戰末期的童年到參與政策制定、成為學者的生命經歷為經緯，讓讀者跟著認識日本重大經濟政策的產生過程、時代氛圍、重要人物事例、影響、成因、科技環境，是由淺入深的作品。

我喜歡這種鼓勵讀者思考個人生命和大時代纏繞關係的作品，最後設計的戰後至今的重大事件年表是本書設計亮點。

[Lordoftaipo · Rating 5 out of 5]

野口先生對二戰後的日本經濟的潮起潮落，如何與環球局勢互相影響，有細緻的描述。他採用的並非一般日本教科書的觀點，而是由名為「一九四零年體制」的一套大政府干預主義掌舵日本經濟。然而到八十年代末，英國首相戴卓爾夫人、美國總統雷根的自由放任主義，卻沒有感染到日本當權者。野口先生證明，在戰後初期以至七十年代，大政府的經濟成長戰略的確有利於當時的重工業；但到了IT革命時，垂直整合型的生產業已不合時宜，橫觀美國的矽谷，在極少干預下不斷推陳出新，同時將不少業務水平地外包給印度和愛爾蘭，日本人同為已發展經濟體下的高等教育人群，卻未能洞悉先機。

當時日本比美國有更好的經濟，甚至日本人一年可在美國花逾百億美元購置摩天大廈、高爾夫球場。野口先生卻在終章指責，這時候八十年代，正反映一種「勤勞致富」的觀念消失的伊始。不再實幹的現象亦可見於，富豪和大型銀行紛紛炒賣東京土地、樓房，使樓市泡沫迅速積聚；大型銀行因著市場失衡的套利機會，使用財技賺錢。這一觀念至近年，當二零零四至零七年日元貶值時，導致日元結算的出口貿易額增加，生產業股價上升，公司和民眾都以為經濟復甦。野口後記提到現在最讓他感到「不對勁」的是，政府和民眾都以為，積極以量化寬鬆使日元貶值，可重拾昔日光輝。但不進行產業改革、繼續行安倍強化干預的政策，日本還是重走十九四零年體制的舊路。

香港作為人口老化嚴重的實體，實行無法不向早香港廿年發展起來的日本借鑒。更不用提炒賣樓宇的泡沫，和日本步入失落二十年時有多相似。以面向國內的措施紓緩高齡人口護養問題，似乎緣木求魚，更長遠、奏效的方向，一定是改革香港的產業結構，盡快在世界經濟局勢找到新落腳點。始終金融服務業愈來愈多合規制肘，其生產價值亦不是全數回饋到香港，若香港無法在新興產業中分一杯羹，單靠現在的所謂四大支柱產業、高淨值人士炒賣過生活、所謂單薄的技術移民人口，又何能處理護養高齡人口，這個百份百會困擾下一代香港人的問題。

[Mimily · Rating 4 out of 5]

3.5 个人视角和记录个人经历的 70 年。读着感慨良多，最近常想，大时代起起伏伏，浪奔浪涌之间，一代人的日子就这么过去了。

[その人 · Rating 3 out of 5]

I am led to understand that the author is renowned for his idea that postwar Japan was ruled by 1940 system, which actually came into being the end of the war and created a centrally commanded war economy which successfully up to 1980s and then outlasted its economic usefulness. (vs. more traditional idea that postwar institutions were forged by GHQ)

Interesting ideas and tidbits of wisdom plus bits an bobs charming anecdotes but I felt that this felt like this wasn’t a tightly argued and organized book, often veering back and forth between some observations about Japanese bureaucracy and Noguchi’s time in an US graduate school and random ojisan commentary on world politics.

I guess the idea was to run in parallel the macro history of postwar Japanese economy alongside the micro history that was author’s experience in this environment. But this at times led to incoherent messages that seemed to have little relation with what appeared to be the main thesis and actually deducted from the overall strength.

[Chris · Rating 5 out of 5]

A quick and informational read for a person new to this topic.
Good chinese translation.

[FarEastValue · Rating 3 out of 5]

A solid intro to the JP economic history.

[Milkymono]

还挺好读的，虽然也不知道讲得对不对

[鸳鸯奶茶热蛋挞 · Rating 4 out of 5]

2022#79

[Howard Wong · Rating 3 out of 5]

只有泡沫崩溃了之后，人们才能知道它是泡沫

[Jue JJ · Rating 4 out of 5]

有一些认知上的刷新，但不多。作者大致分析了一些，但感觉不怎么全面。