Key takeaways:
1. To be a successful investor, you must understand how your brain works.
As wonderful as our brains are, they weren’t designed to work in complex, stressful situations. So, if you want to make good financial choices, you need to realize that your brain won’t always lead you in the right direction.
The human brain was designed to keep our prehistoric ancestors safe. And even though you probably don’t go to work facing mortal danger from saber-toothed tigers in the bush, your brain still acts as if you are.
For example, whenever you’re assessing financial risk, the brain areas responsible for avoiding attack light up. Because your brain thinks you’re being threatened, it limits its focus to these areas to keep you alive. This makes it harder for you to think clearly and makes it more likely that you’ll overlook important information.
2. You’re not as rational as you think.
Our human need for comfort makes us prefer the familiar to the unfamiliar, even if the familiar is boring or bad. And because we have such a strong fear of loss, we hold on to what we already have, even at the expense of potential gain. This leads to all kinds of strange situations.
To succeed as an investor, you need to get used to being uncomfortable. Because the markets are constantly in flux, you’ll always face potential losses and regrets. But if you accept this, you can move forward with the best course of rational action instead of letting your emotions keep you stuck in the past or paralyzed by fear.
3. Overconfidence is a liability.
Our human tendency to be optimistic about our circumstances can fuel a positive mind-set, it can also go too far. That’s when overconfidence leads to destructive, ego-driven behavior.
Typically, when investors experience wins, they believe their success is due to their unique skills and might fail to see that the whole market is up as well. Their overconfidence could cause them to keep buying, even if stock prices are already high. This goes against the “buy low, sell high” rule-of-thumb that every investor should follow.
Overconfidence is often the reason investors fail to diversify their portfolios. When a company’s wealth is growing, investors can be fooled into believing they’ve found a sure winner. But even if a company’s stock is strong, it’s never a good idea to put all your eggs in one basket. Instead, your portfolios should have around 20 stocks each. This is crucial since the market involves lots of uncertainty and a fair amount of luck.
Diversification doesn’t just reduce the odds of catastrophic loss by spreading risk. It’s also useful when you’re trying to make market predictions. That’s because pooled judgments that take many opinions into consideration are far more successful at predicting outcomes than individual guesses.
4. To invest successfully, you must embrace the unfamiliar.
Because it takes a lot of energy for your brain to make difficult decisions, it looks for ways to cut corners by defaulting to what it already knows. Sadly, when it comes to investing, this tendency puts your portfolio at risk.
5. To invest successfully, you must broaden your views.
In a high-risk situation, it’s easy to become blind to simple solutions. That’s why many investors looking for an edge in the financial market end up with overly complicated strategies
And yet data analysis company Morningstar discovered that it isn’t a brilliant manager or a state-of-the-art process that predicts a fund’s performance. It’s investment fees. But if you’re consumed by a desire to succeed – and a fear of failure – you’re at risk of overlooking this simple evaluation tool.
To be a behavioral investor, you need to take the long view. The first step is to examine your portfolio for any stocks at risk of bankruptcy or fraud and get rid of them. Next, diversify to avoid catastrophe. Finally, place your trust in time. This will help you through any short-term failures.
6. To invest successfully, you must manage your emotions.
Every day, while you’re making financial decisions, the array of emotions you’re experiencing is at play. It’s important not to underestimate how powerful they are and how much they can influence the choices you make. Because, when it comes to investing, emotions are a serious liability.
So, even though you may think of yourself as a well-regulated individual, remember that emotions are so universal that most of the time, you don’t even notice them. But if you can pay attention to your emotions, you’ll know when to be guided by them and when to regulate them instead.
7. To be a successful investor, you must understand how influential your intuition is.
As an investor, you’ll be exposed to constant financial news, endless opinions, as well as the greed of others and yourself. Without a solid model in place to help you make good decisions, you’ll inevitably crack under the stress. But if you’ve committed to following a model, your investment decisions won’t be at the mercy of how you feel.
Luckily, you can turn to model-based approaches – like using extrapolation algorithms – to compensate for your brain’s shortcomings.
8. To be a successful investor, you must manage your fear of market bubbles.
Although few investors want to acknowledge it, bubbles are a natural part of capital markets. And yet bubbles also aren’t as common as you might think.
Unfortunately, knowing the truth about bubbles doesn’t remove the widespread fear of them. In fact, fear of bubbles is powerful enough to paralyze investors, which is why it’s so important that you learn how to manage your emotions. Otherwise, you’ll end up stuck when you’d be better off embracing opportunity instead.
To navigate through the inevitable rise and fall of the market, create a rules-based system that will guide you to becoming more conservative when things are unstable. That way, you can focus on being patient and acting infrequently, rather than behaving reactively based on how you feel on any given day.
A common system to achieve this is a momentum-based model with a 200-day moving average. Following this model means holding assets when their price is above their 200-day average and selling them when it drops below that number. A similar model is based on a ten-month moving average.