Pro Basketball Forecast: 2005-06

by John Hollinger

The roundball revolution continues, and John Hollinger is El Jefe. With the Pro Basketball Forecast™, Hollinger takes an in-depth and insightful look at the game. Downplayed are all the per-game statistics; in their place are points, rebounds, and assists per forty minutes. Hollinger also examines how many possessions each player uses and what percentage of his team’s rebounds he collects. Why? Because teams use players in different ways, and comparing everyone on an even scale makes much more sense. When is a player averaging ten points a game more valuable than one averaging fifteen? How about if he plays twenty minutes to the latter’s forty and plays for a team that walks the ball up the court instead of fast-breaking? If he’s given a starting position or traded to a new team, he could "unexpectedly" break out—unexpected to everyone but Forecast™ readers, that is. Hollinger shows you which players, given more time or a fresh start, can ratchet their game up to all-star levels. He also shows which ones are scoring more than their backups solely because of proportion of time and should find themselves on the bench more this year. On top of all this, Hollinger also continues to improve his groundbreaking method of valuing a player’s personal defense and sharpens his projections for regulars, offering predictions for the forthcoming season. Hollinger adds his thoughts on every team—where they’ve been and where they’re going—as well as a discussion of every player and draft pick. You may watch hoops, but you haven’t seen everything until you’ve seen the Forecast™.

298 pages, Paperback

First published January 1, 2005

Reviews

[Brad Burnett · Rating 5 out of 5]

I don’t know exactly which versions I read, I just know before he took a front office job with the Memphis Grizzlies, John Hollinger’s columns and these books were the most cherished of my life. Introduced me to the concept of pace and points per 100 possessions and really analytics in basketball period. He wrote a PER DIEM daily on ESPN insider, had a playoff forecaster, and a draft forecaster. Though Bill James was not someone I widely read, I can only imagine, well for me at least, what Bill James was for Baseball John Hollinger was for basketball. The times when he wrote for ESPN are some of my life’s fondest memories. I’d probably be more in awe of this author than any player.

[Mikey · Rating 5 out of 5]

The final installment of the Pro Basketball Prospectus/Forecast series before the whole operation went online on ESPN Insider, the 2005-06 edition is the best that Hollinger's come up with. The most notable improvement is a huge revamping of the similarities scores and projections. As usual, Hollinger's writing is witty and accurate. This stuff is addictive like crack. Seriously.