偶然的科學：好運、隨機及機率背後的秘密

by New Scientist, 新科學人, 周群英 (Translator)

從宇宙的誕生，到你完美的下注
偶然性，CHANCE都在幕後扮演影武者，但你卻不知道

你以為偶然只是巧合、運氣和機率
科學家卻利用偶然，達到自己的目的！

　　．宇宙的存在，似乎是個偶然？而生命非得出現嗎？
　　．簡單生命無所不在，但複雜的生命是偶然的結果？
　　．新物種的出現，並非演化而來的，又是偶然的結果？
　　．人真的可以創造出自己的運氣？
　　．為什麼人類深受非預期的巧合吸引，這是錯覺還是某種被掩蓋的真實的揭露？
　　．玩剪刀、石頭、布，如何可以居於不敗之地？
　　．中彩劵領高額獎金，去賭場玩輪盤遊戲，數學家也可以提供好策略？
　　．機率可以幫助你找到好的結婚對象？
　　．科學家不只研究偶然，也會利用偶然來找到新發明，讓自己得到諾貝爾獎？
　　．GPS和網路購物等的出現，剝奪了偶然性從我們生活中出現的機會，這是很大的損失嗎？
　　
　　1989年，一名叫做理查．希爾的年輕人到英國北部曼徹斯特旅行，住在朋友的朋友家。隔天，朋友的朋友的母親安剛好要去牛津。她邀請理查同行，理查答應了。
　　旅途中，理查提到自己曾住在附近一個叫做斯文敦（Swindon）的城鎮。安聽了說：「哇，那你可能知道一個叫做麥可．布魯克斯的人？他就住在斯文敦，大約二十歲。」
　　沉默了一會兒後，理查說：「他和我姐姐訂婚了。」
　　「哇，他是我的繼子」，安說。
　　
　　這是作者本人親身經歷的故事。相信你也有這類的故事，這些故事無法解釋，我們也忍不住認為那別具深意。我們對這樣的巧合有很強的共鳴，這甚至成為許多人人生當中重要的關鍵點。但事實真是如此嗎？
　　
　　為了回答這個問題，我們必須了解「偶然」到底是什麼。而這比我們想的還要困難。
　　「什麼是偶然？」只要是有人在的地方，這問題就沒有一天不存在。面對這個問題，我們通常沒有答案，起碼沒有正確的答案。
　　
　　莎士比亞的羅密歐是戀情被阻礙的戀人，他說自己「遭受命運的捉弄」。但是，科學家沒有坐著乾等命運來決定他們是否配得諾貝爾獎。相反地，他們透過分析偶然性，把自己放在最佳的可能位置，以此發現新事物。正如巴斯德所說的：「機會只會眷顧準備好的人」。
　　
　　看來，我們得聽聽科學家如何分析偶然這件事了！
　　
　　這本書找了各領域權威專家針對偶然發表文章在《新科學人》上，並集結其中26篇文章成書，探討偶然、機率、好運背後的祕密，從如何完美下注，藥物測試，如何找到車鑰匙，到法庭上陪審團如何做出決定，探索了許多人們習以為常但不常思考和注意的事情。每篇都既具深度，也饒富趣味，打開你的眼界，讓你發現許多你認為是偶然的事情，其實不然！

Genres: Science, Nonfiction, Popular Science, Mathematics

232 pages, Paperback

First published November 5, 2015

Reviews

[Brian Clegg · Rating 4 out of 5]

New Scientist has had a great success with its books filled with extracts from the 'Last Word' column where readers pose and answer questions. Titles such as Why Don't Penguin's Feet Freeze have proved very popular for a number of years. However, while no doubt they are building up more Q&As for the next such title, the New Scientist staff have come up with a different format that brings together a collection of articles based on an interesting topic. We've already seen this with Nothing - now there's a second outing with Chance.

Generally speaking, I am not a huge fan of books made up of a smorgasbord of articles by different authors. The outcome is often bitty and lacks any narrative flow - it just doesn't read well as a whole. The New Scientist books suffer a little for this problem, but the good news is that the vast majority of the articles in Chance on randomness, probability and the like are very readable in their own right, and there isn't too much overlap between them.

Where the book really shines is when dealing with the way that randomness and probability influence our everyday lives, from legal miscarriages, where probability has been misused to falsely convict, to the good old classic applications of probability like the lottery (it's a shame the number of balls has changed since the book was written) and the different games in a casino. I'm also always genuinely happy when there's a discussion of Bayes' theorem, which comes up a number of times. There are also some tantalising mentions of the kind of unlikely coincidences we've all encountered, like meeting a colleague in a strange location, though I would have liked a specific article giving these kind of events more of a heavy duty going over.

Less successful, for me, were what felt more like padding articles, brought in because there weren't quite enough topics to cover on pure probability, so the authors had to resort to rather tenuous connections of probability with biology and the statistical chances of life existing. I know some people love this kind of thing, so I understand why it's here, but it didn't work for me.

So, I reached the end a pleasantly surprised reader. It's no Dice World, but it is an interesting and entertaining collection of articles covering many areas of randomness and probability.

[Val · Rating 3 out of 5]

These are a set of selected pieces written for New Scientist by various contributors over the years. The title tells you what they are about, but suggests that they are purely mathematical, which is not the case. Subjects such as evolutionary biology, quantum entanglement and gambling are also featured.

[Tim · Rating 3 out of 5]

A collection of articles on the subject of chance. Some that sparkle, some that don't and some that are better explained in other works, like Taleb's Black Swan.

[Einar Snorri · Rating 2 out of 5]

samansafn af greinum úr new scientist. Þær eru mis læsilegar, mis fróðlegar og mis skemmtilegar. á köflum var erfitt að lesa bókina.

[Peter · Rating 4 out of 5]

Recently I bought a pile of timber for various home projects. While filing the invoices from the same supplier, I came across two which had precisely the same total - 6 digits, including the cents. The items were completely different in type and quantity. Now, what are the chances of that happening? Surely it means Something Important? But that's not the real coincidence: Later that day I read about this exact situation in this book. Now, how's that for a real coincidence?

The use and misuse of statistics have always interested me, and this book fascinated me and held my attention throughout. Although made up of separate articles by different authors, each thread is followed so well that you hardly know the difference, and careful editing has taken out most of the duplication of ideas which would normally occur.

Particularly interesting to me were the areas where our common sense just breaks down, leading us to wrong conclusions. These range from problems of testimony in court, to clinical trials, and even to some problems in modern cryptography.

A thoroughly good read, provided you have some scientific background and are not scared of a few formulas. I was sorry it came to an end so soon.

[Flyss Williams · Rating 4 out of 5]

Ever wanted to know how to win at Rock, Paper Scissors, why shops are arranged in London in small hubs, how to get a bigger share of the prize should you be lucky enough to win the lottery. All of these and more are questions answered in Chance, the science and secrets of luck, randomness and probability.

[Stewart Morris · Rating 2 out of 5]

Feels like a bit of a random collection... Some essays are pitched at the right level and fit well into the space available. Many others assume too much prior knowledge and/or don't explain or elaborate their arguments well, just stating the science as truth handed down from on high. The book would benefit from many more examples and, perhaps surprisingly, more maths.

[Astroretro · Rating 3 out of 5]

An interesting read from a great collection of authors with some particularly nice chapters but one frustratingly annoying one. Worth a read for those with an interest in science and probability. I particularly liked the sections about chance in cosmology and evolution, as well as parts about the power of dithering, Bayes' theorem and Benford’s law. I would advise skipping Chapter 4 entirely with it's rambling discussion of 'free will' and was especially annoyed by Mark Buchanan's extended misquote of Einstein with it's incessant and utterly unnecessary 'God' references. But don't throw the baby out with the bathwater because all the other chapters are worth a read.

[Lydia · Rating 3 out of 5]

This was a hard book to get started, not going to lie. I attempted to read this three times. The first chapter is just way too heavy, but if you stop midway through you lose the thread and have to start again at the beginning.
I love the concept of this book, but with it being a collective of essays it wasn't always coherent, nor easy to take in.
Looking back, I only really enjoyed 2 or 3 key moments, the rest I could do without. It felt like I was reading the book all to get to the final chapter.
Having said that, I do feel a hell of a lot smarter now. Maybe I'll try my luck at the lottery.

[Robert Day · Rating 3 out of 5]

It's good and interesting and informative and my two favourite things are that you can get training to be more lucky and there are apps that will make you do random things and go random places.

Apart from those things I'd come across pretty much everything else already. And the world has also moved on because this is, what, almost a decade old?

Read it if you like time capsules. Otherwise, use ChatGPT.

[Darcy · Rating 3 out of 5]

I enjoyed this book, but I don't think the format of so many short articles together suited the way I like to read. For someone who likes to chip away a little at a time without losing the thread of the book it'd probably be quite good.

[Lauren · Rating 2 out of 5]

There were a couple of good articles but the majority were pretty dull. I love books which explain scientific concepts but once they start tying in formulae I switched off.

[Sam · Rating 2 out of 5]

Loved and connected with the final part, but found it a struggle to get there.

Lots of physics and maths early on so if you love these, this book may well be for you.

[Noel Leeman · Rating 4 out of 5]

Really enjoyed this.

[Andrew Brassington · Rating 3 out of 5]

It's fine, but felt quite disjointed. Perhaps a heavier editorial touch would have helped unify this series of essays.

[Alan Eyre · Rating 2 out of 5]

Meh. A series of popular science essays putatively held together (but not really) by the theme of 'chance.' Lots of interesting facts, but I felt let down by the book as a whole.

[Karen Wickham · Rating 2 out of 5]

I found this book hard going and only found small parts of it of any interest. And I'm a mathematician.....

If you like probability and statistics then this book is for you. If not, then I would avoid it.

The only bits I found interesting were the parts about the theory behind gambling, the lottery (which numbers should you play etc) and how to win at rock, paper scissors, and the part at the end about Benford's law (look it up - it's fascinating). The rest was a chore to plough through.

[Damaskcat · Rating 5 out of 5]

I don't have a huge knowledge of science or mathematics but I do find this sort of book interesting. This book, as its title says, is about luck, randomness and probability. The book is made up of short essays on various aspects of the subject and includes such things as placing the perfect bet - but don't expect a big return; winning at the casino; evolution; criminal juries and picking winning lottery numbers.

I found most of the maths and science reasonably easy to understand and the contributors write well and in ways which can be understand by the lay person. I enjoyed reading it and picked up lots of information that I was previously unaware of. If you're looking something not too technical on the subject then this could be the ideal book for you,

[Stephie · Rating 3 out of 5]

An interesting and thought provoking read on the true role both Chance and Randomness play in our lives. The only small downfall was the sudden jump from a casual discussion of chance/randomness in everyday situations to rather technical mathematical speak which threw me a few times. Perhaps worthy of a second read in a few years time to get my head around the more technical discussions. Overall, a good book and I recommend it.

[Thomas Kus · Rating 4 out of 5]

The book equivalent to a BBC Horizon episode

This collection of New Scientist articles on randomness and chance in nature, mathematics and computer science is both entertaining and informative. It is aimed at readers with minimal science knowledge and as such quite accessible even to younger readers. The narrative often feels like a Horizon documentary which is not a bad thing but it seems to lack some depth at times.

[Thiago · Rating 4 out of 5]

Intense focusing read, however very interesting to see how chance can be applied and how connects every single actions, at all levels, whether human, planetary or atomic can determine the evolution or course of the future. At some point the main subject send to be lost but by the end you will see his everything falls in love place. Really liked it!

[Rajiv Sondhi · Rating 4 out of 5]

A collection of some thought provoking essays, looking at ' chance' from many angles: mathematical, spiritual, philosophical, astrological...you get the picture, right? Some of the essays were quite technical and difficult for me to follow, but many were easy to read and enjoyable. Take your time to read this, slowly...

[Manoj Joshi · Rating 5 out of 5]

If we had known what chaos is around appreciate what shape it is going to take place and influence the next step we would be heroes ! Perfect book bools your thinking in case you are a serious reader with a physics background appreciating the business and natural environment around you

[Wayne Reilly · Rating 4 out of 5]

Interesting subject, well presented.

A nice peek into the world of probability and chance and how these affect our lives. Not an in-depth thesis by any means however it provides a every good overview of an incredibly interesting subject.

[Ban · Rating 3 out of 5]

Probably 3.5/5 stars. Some topics are interesting. Some aren't.

[Teecee · Rating 2 out of 5]

Bu - huh - boring. Don't know how they managed to make such an interesting topic so snooze worthy but they did

[岳昇 潘 · Rating 3 out of 5]

Fine book. Interesting but the essays are logically separated, sometimes I couldn't get the point of the author.

[Anthony · Rating 3 out of 5]

A little too maths heavy for my poor brain. I've preferred others in the series.