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320 pages, Hardcover
First published January 1, 2020
What do the world’s most extreme economies say about the stresses and strains of 2030, and how we should prepare for them?
The year 2030, for most people on earth, will be a cocktail of these three cities: an urban society that is old, technologically advanced and economically unequal.
The philosopher and economist John Stuart Mill wrote in 1848 that it was common for communities to rebound after a war or disaster had ‘laid waste’ to their economy, and noted that most people would regard this as surprising. The source of the unexpected resilience, Mill thought, was the fact that walls, bridges and warehouses – physical capital – matter less than the ideas, skills and effort of the people who make up a country or community, since it is the people who will be called on to rebuild what has been lost.
To navigate all this, we need a fresh economics. People like to trade and are good at it, but the markets we create can destroy value – the only way forward is a new middle way. Failure is possible, even where potential is highest, so we need greater focus on resilience. An economics of resilience recognizes that for many people and many countries, income starts with informal trade.
It accepts that a society’s wealth is built on human and social capital, with financial and physical capital sitting on top. Today these subtler and more human aspects of income and wealth play little part in economic measurement or planning. My travels suggest that if they did, we might see things we are missing: the powerful fightback against old age, the real locus of the pain from technological advances, and the hidden faultiness – the erosion of resilience – that inequality is creating in the world’s most promising economies.