𝐁𝐢𝐭𝐬, 𝐁𝐲𝐭𝐞𝐬, 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐁𝐚𝐫𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐬: 𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐃𝐢𝐠𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥 𝐓𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐬𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐨𝐟 𝐎𝐢𝐥 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐆𝐚𝐬.
𝐁𝐲 𝐆𝐞𝐨𝐟𝐟𝐫𝐞𝐲 𝐂𝐚𝐧𝐧 & 𝐑𝐚𝐜𝐡𝐚𝐞𝐥 𝐆𝐨𝐲𝐝𝐚𝐧.
In his book, 𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐈𝐧𝐧𝐨𝐯𝐚𝐭𝐨𝐫'𝐬 𝐃𝐢𝐥𝐞𝐦𝐦𝐚, the late 𝑷𝒓𝒐𝒇𝒆𝒔𝒔𝒐𝒓 𝑪𝒍𝒂𝒚𝒕𝒐𝒏 𝑪𝒉𝒓𝒊𝒔𝒕𝒆𝒏𝒔𝒆𝒏 of Harvard Business School describes a theory about how large, outstanding firms can fail "by doing everything right."
Disruptive technologies occur less frequently, but when they do, they can cause the failure of highly successful companies that are only prepared for sustaining technologies.
An exploration of the “Digital Transformation of Oil and Gas” by authors, Geoffrey Cann and Rachael Goydan (2019) brings out the discussion of the potential of disruptive digital innovation.
𝐁𝐢𝐭𝐬, 𝐁𝐲𝐭𝐞𝐬, 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐁𝐚𝐫𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐬 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐟𝐢𝐫𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐚𝐠𝐞 𝐰𝐢𝐭𝐡 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐫𝐨𝐝𝐮𝐜𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧, 𝐰𝐡𝐢𝐜𝐡 𝐥𝐚𝐮𝐧𝐜𝐡𝐞𝐬 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐝𝐞𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐨 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐛𝐢𝐩𝐨𝐥𝐚𝐫 𝐧𝐚𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐨𝐢𝐥 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐠𝐚𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐮𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐲 𝐟𝐚𝐦𝐨𝐮𝐬 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐛𝐨𝐨𝐦 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐛𝐮𝐬𝐭. 𝐑𝐞𝐚𝐝𝐞𝐫𝐬 𝐰𝐞𝐫𝐞 𝐪𝐮𝐢𝐜𝐤𝐥𝐲 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐲𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐜𝐫𝐨𝐬𝐬𝐫𝐨𝐚𝐝𝐬 𝐰𝐡𝐞𝐫𝐞 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐭𝐨𝐫 𝐟𝐨𝐮𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬𝐞𝐥𝐟. 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐩𝐚𝐫𝐭 𝐡𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐥𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐭𝐞𝐝 𝐡𝐨𝐰 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐛𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐬𝐮𝐜𝐡 𝐚𝐬 𝐯𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞 𝐚𝐥𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐧𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐥𝐢𝐤𝐞 𝐡𝐲𝐛𝐫𝐢𝐝 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐞𝐥𝐞𝐜𝐭𝐫𝐢𝐜 𝐦𝐨𝐭𝐨𝐫𝐬, 𝐫𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐰𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞 𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐫𝐠𝐲 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐥𝐢𝐤𝐞 𝐛𝐚𝐭𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐢𝐞𝐬, 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐠𝐥𝐨𝐛𝐚𝐥 𝐝𝐞𝐜𝐚𝐫𝐛𝐨𝐧𝐢𝐳𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐝𝐫𝐢𝐯𝐞.
The authors, Geoffrey, and Rachael explain how “digital innovation is playing a decisive role in the fortunes of oil and gas as a driver of three big changes”:
• expanding the supply of hydrocarbons,
• lowering production costs and increasing productivity, and
• the erosion of the demand for fossil fuels.
Climate change however is pushing back on Oil and Gas (in all its forms and derivatives).
The authors also explain that digital is “Data, Analytics, and Connectivity.”
The premise of the book is predicated upon the notion that technology disruption in the industry is no longer a matter of if but rather a matter of when. Hence, adopting and incorporating technology such as cloud computing, artificial intelligence, machine learning, IoT, 3d- printing, and gamification can be very useful tools, if not essential as the world is moving towards a more digital future.
These building blocks are based on the computer chip and are subject to the constant pressures and ameliorations offered by Moore’s Law and how it quickly lowers costs and makes yesterday’s technology obsolete.
Automation and digitalization come into play to a significantly varied degree as far ranging as:
• autonomous cars and transportation services;
• artificial intelligence, machine learning, and robots;
• voice, interpretation, and translation;
• electrical power generation;
• residential automation;
• wearable technology, such as Google Glass or smart watches;
• business-to-business sales;
• medical information;
• financial services and banking;
• healthcare technology; and
• games, entertainment, and experiences.
This great book by Geoffrey and Rachael makes enthralling arguments for how these areas can be affected by and affect future use and needs of oil and gas.
It draws the inference with some interesting insights. There are many trends worth considering in oil and gas, but here are five that seem unstoppable to the authors, that are worth noting:
1. 𝐃𝐞𝐦𝐨𝐠𝐫𝐚𝐩𝐡𝐢𝐜 𝐬𝐡𝐢𝐟𝐭𝐬. Demographics Favor growth originating in Asia to match the fast-growing populations and their move into the middle classes. Their population will want more of the consumer goods that use petroleum energy (cars, industry, or chemicals).
2. 𝐓𝐞𝐜𝐡𝐧𝐨𝐥𝐨𝐠𝐲 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞𝐬. Technology is advancing at a breathtaking pace, without regard to the kinds of traditional constraints to innovation, such as capital, capability, and organizational capacity. Technology enables oil and gas to expand resources, at the same time as it destroys demand.
3. 𝐂𝐥𝐢𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐞 𝐜𝐡𝐚𝐧𝐠𝐞. Developed economies have proposed new carbon taxes, fuel-consumption taxes, fuel-efficiency targets, and even bans on combustion engines.
4. 𝐓𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐬𝐩𝐨𝐫𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐬𝐡𝐢𝐟𝐭𝐬. Transportation, as a big consumer of energy, is also shifting. The six top automakers, which account for 50 percent of all cars and trucks, have announced plans to electrify their vehicles in the next five to ten years. The heavy truck sector and bus sector have started to convert to new drivetrain technology.
5. 𝐎𝐢𝐥 𝐦𝐚𝐫𝐤𝐞𝐭 𝐬𝐡𝐢𝐟𝐭𝐬. North America will soon be self-sufficient in oil, which will cause oil trading patterns to change. Digital innovation will shift the recoveries from shale to match those of conventional, unlocking yet more hydrocarbons, and it may also bring about demand destruction.
The authors’ book makes compelling reading for those in positions to make decisions or advocate for smart policy decisions for the coming decades.
Bits, Bytes, and Barrels conclude with proposals for organizing digitizing, including providing a role for the board of the company endeavoring.
𝐒𝐢𝐭𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐢𝐧 𝐛𝐨𝐚𝐫𝐝 𝐫𝐨𝐨𝐦𝐬, 𝐈 𝐜𝐚𝐧 𝐚𝐭𝐭𝐞𝐬𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐝𝐢𝐠𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐳𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐢𝐬 𝐚 𝐜𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐥 𝐞𝐥𝐞𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐨𝐟 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐢𝐨𝐧.
The book is well organized, contains case studies, prescribes starting points for transitions, and cautions about possible pitfalls and risks. It contains a handy summary at the end of each chapter.
A mindset shift is needed to move the industry to a place of readiness to embrace digital innovation, beginning with Boards. Investors are now exerting very strong pressure on Boards to address climate change and the impacts on shareholders from the shift away from fossil fuels. Digital innovation can extend the life of the existing fossil-fuel energy system by lowering its costs to compete with renewables, as well as by reducing its carbon footprint. Few technologies offer the competitive combination of lower cost, higher productivity, asset life extension, and reduced environmental impact. That’s before considering the potential for entirely new and disruptive business models to emerge.