هل انتهى القرن الأمريكي؟

by Joseph S. Nye Jr., السيد أمين شلبي (Translator), جوزيف ناي

هل انتهى القرن الأمريكي؟ يعتقد الكثيرون أنه كذلك. في السنوات الأخيرة، أظهرت الاستطلاعات أن 15 بلدًا من 22 أجريت عليها الاستطلاعات، أجابت بأن الصين إما أنها ستحل محل الولايات المتحدة أو أنها بالفعل قد حلت محلها باعتبارها القوة العالمية القائدة.
وفي منتصف الثمانينيات سأل اقتصادي من معهد ماسوسيتس للتكنولوچيا MIT إذا كانت الإمبراطورية البريطانية دامت قرنين "فهل نضمحل نحن بعد 50 عامًا؟ وفي أعقاب انهيار الاتحاد السوفييتي، الذي ترك الولايات المتحدة القوة الأعظم الوحيدة في العالم، قارنت أفضل الكتب مبيعًا وضع الولايات المتحدة باضمحلال إسبانيا في عهد فيليب الثاني، وبعد أن أصبحت الولايات المتحدة القوة الأعظم الوحيدة في عالم أحادي القطب، تنبأ عالم سياسة مرموق بأنها سوف تنتهي بسرعة، بهذه النماذج المتحفظة نحتاج إلى أن نتواضع ونحن نحاول أن نجيب على السؤال الذي يحمله عنوان هذا الكتاب.

Genres: Politics, Nonfiction, International Relations, Political Science, History, Current Affairs, International Affairs

124 pages, Paperback

First published March 5, 2015

About the author

Joseph Samuel Nye Jr. was an American political scientist. He and Robert Keohane co-founded the international relations theory of neoliberalism, which they developed in their 1977 book Power and Interdependence. Together with Keohane, he developed the concepts of asymmetrical and complex interdependence. They also explored transnational relations and world politics in an edited volume in the 1970s. More recently, he pioneered the theory of soft power. His notion of "smart power" ("the ability to combine hard and soft power into a successful strategy") became popular with the use of this phrase by members of the Clinton Administration and the Obama Administration. These theories from Nye are very commonly seen in courses across the U.S., such as I.B. D.P. Global Politics.
Nye was the Dean of the John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University, where he later held the position of University Distinguished Service Professor, Emeritus. In October 2014, Secretary of State John Kerry appointed Nye to the Foreign Affairs Policy Board. He was also a member of the Defense Policy Board. He was a Harvard faculty member since 1964. He was a fellow of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences, a foreign fellow of the British Academy, and a member of the American Academy of Diplomacy.
The 2011 Teaching, Research, and International Policy (TRIP) survey of over 1,700 international relations scholars ranked Nye as the sixth most influential scholar in the field of international relations in the past 20 years. He was also ranked as one of the most influential figures in American foreign policy. In 2011, Foreign Policy magazine included him on its list of top global thinkers. In September 2014, Foreign Policy reported that international relations scholars and policymakers ranked Nye as one of the field's most influential scholars.

Reviews

[محمد شفیعی · Rating 4 out of 5]

در خیلی موارد موافقش نیستم و نظراتش رو خوب و درست توضیح نداده، مثلا رو بحث قومیتها و تغییر‌ هویت آمریکایی هانتینگتون یه کتاب نوشته و کلی حرف زده، این نکرده دو تا جمله بنویسه در رد ادعای اون فقط گفته شواهد میگه اینجوری نیست!
با این وجود ازش یاد گرفتم، نای یادگرفتنی زیادی داره...

[Mostafa Bushehri · Rating 5 out of 5]

شاید بارها و بارها این گفته ی "دوران آمریکا رو به اتمام است" و یا چنین جملات شبیه به آن را شنیده باشید اما به احتمال زیاد گوینده بدون ارائه توضیحی از مفهوم "دوران و قدرت" و بدون ارائه شواهد و استدلال های لازم از گفته خود رد شده باشد.
جوزف نای عالِم علوم سیاسی و از اساتید مطرح روابط بین الملل در این کتاب قصد دارد در تحلیلی علمی و بدون غرض به این سوال پاسخ دهد.
وی ابتدا تعریفی از قدرت و انواع آن را بیان کرده و با توجه به صورت سوال به پاسخ آن میپردازد.
برای دستیابی به قدرت سه روش وجود دارد؛ 1.هویج ها یا همان پاداش، 2.چماق ها یا همان اجبار و 3.جذب یا ترغیب.
چماق ها و هویج ها نمونه ای از قدرت سخت و جذب و ترغیب نمونه ای از قدرت نرم به شمار میروند. با توجه به این باید در نظر داشت که قدرت اقتصادی به تنهایی تعیین کننده نخواهد بود و تمام ابعاد قدرت حائز اهمیت به شمار خواهند رفت.
نای با توجه به مبدا شکل گیری قرن آمریکایی، فراز و نشیب های آن، رقیب های جهانی آمریکا و نیز با توجه به نمونه های تاریخی سعی دارد به این سوال پاسخ دهد و درآخر نیز پیشبینی هرچند مشروط خود را برای دهه های بعد بیان میکند.
این کتاب علاوه بر دادن اطلاعات وسیع و مفید راجع به آمریکا و دیگر قدرت ها برای اشخاصی که دغدغه توسعه دارند پیشنهاد میشود..
در عصر ترامپ شاید این سوال بیش از پیش در اذهان عمومی طنین انداز شود که "آیا قرن آمریکایی رو به تمام است؟"

[Mahdi · Rating 3 out of 5]

برای اهالی روابط بین‌الملل، کتاب شیرین و پرمغزی است؛ البته با یک نکته مهم و اینکه از سوی یکی از حامیان وضع موجود نوشته شده است.

نگاه حمایت آمیز جوزف نای از ساختار نظم آمریکایی را می توان تقابلی با نگاه ضدساختاری نوام چامسکی دانست.

در مجموع کتاب خوش خوان و دوست داشتنی است که حتی که اگر با تحلیل های آن موافق نباشیم، از خواندنش استفاده می کنیم.

[Robert Jacoby · Rating 1 out of 5]

Thankfully this is a short book, at 152 pages. I was able to breeze through it, taking some notes here and there. I found Nye's assessments to be usually woefully inadequate. too shallow and incomplete for the topics he's addressing. The book read more like a monthly status report that the president might flip through, or an essay from Foreign Affairs. It felt like I was correcting the author in my head as I was reading, or adding my own footnotes. I'll stick to a handful, then you decide if you want to read it. Two inward, and two outward: Inward first:

1. "Detroit bulldozing." Nye completely ignores the structural disintegration happening inside the U.S. in such cities as Detroit. If you don't know what's been happening in Detroit for the past 10 years, thank the Legacy Media for that. It's our best-kept secret. Because what's been happening to Detroit is that it's being bulldozed. Literally. Google "Detroit bulldozing." The city is in such a catastrophic state that authorities have had to bulldoze large swaths of land (up to 20% of the city) and let them go to field. Yes. Go. To. Field. This is the plan. But civil authorities. After you google "Detroit bulldozing," click on the images tab to see pictures of what once arguably was the shining "city on a hill" example of American industrial strength. That Nye does not mention once this domestic policy nightmare leads me to believe he's either ignorant or willfully leaving out information.

2. Illegal aliens in America. Nye mentions this problem in spots, brushing over it as if he's sitting down with an expensive Scotch at an after-dinner party. It's unreal. As if it's not much of a problem. I've been following avidly the freeflow happening in the US for some time now and how it's bringing in unheard of crimes, diseases, and community problems. That Nye brushes over this issue so swiftly speaks to, again, either his ignorance or his willful ignorance of the issue. I can abide neither. If you do want to be informed, try googling these search terms: "united states illegal alien disease"; "united states illegal alien crime"; and "united states illegal alien civic problems". (That Maryland allows illegal aliens to go to college on "in-state" tuition is just one example, of dozens, of our politicians collectively losing their minds.)

Two outward problems Nye glosses over:

1. European migrant crisis. I'll cut Nye a little slack here because his book was published in January 2015, before the freeflow really started. Now news reports tell us up to 2,000 migrants are hitting the Greek islands PER DAY; most are nearly illiterate; less than half are from Syria (see UN page: http://data.unhcr.org/mediterranean/r... and, as the New Year's Eve group attacks on women across Europe demonstrated, it's a clash of cultures. I have a feeling, still, that Nye would not address Turkey's role in suddenly letting the refugees have passage into the south of Europe. For more information, google "european migrant crisis" and "turkey role in european migrant crisis".

It's nonsense, of course, to think that this crisis won't affect America; or to think a similar influx is not already happening. With all its concomitant challenges and problems.

2. China and the Middle East. Nye's whole treatment of these two issues and how they are now and how they will impact America are entirely inadequate. Space won't allow me to go into any detail. Let me just say that my wide readings of news articles, books, and reports keeps me more abreast of what's to be found in reading Nye. Three things I will touch on: 1. remember the reports of the roaring economy that China experienced in the last 10 years or so, when they were cranking out annual GDP rates close or over 10%? Economists typically cheered this on. The US stock market loved it. Careful thinkers will understand that there might have been something false behind this, and they'd be correct. Google "china false economy". Sit down with your own Scotch, maybe, while reading. 2. AFRICOM was created in 2008 to counter China's need for natural resources, like oil, to fuel their growth. 3. The Middle East is a cauldron of problems, many stemming from consanguineous marriages. Google "consanguinity middle east" to find articles related to what it is and what areas of a country it impacts. Basically: everything. It's a ticking time bomb.

So what do I think should have been addressed? I'l offer four -- only four -- real internal American issues that Nye should have focused on (and these are just off the top of my head) as part of our nation's decline include:

1. Illegal aliens. This must top any list. Having undocumented people in one's country that number into the millions is unacceptable. And having porous borders to bring in drugs, weapons, human trafficking, and diseases is also unacceptable. One of the definitions of "country" is those thin, dark lines on maps. They're called borders.

2. Fatherless homes. Two stats:
-- In 2013, nearly 72% of black children were born to unmarried mothers (CDC)
-- Almost 41% of all births in the US are to unmarried women (CDC)
This issue is now and will come to haunt us as a nation.

3. The race gap in education. Two stats:
-- According to the ACT, the percentage of African-American students who are college-ready in all four tested subjects (English, math, reading, and science) ranges from 17% (in Massachusetts) to only 3% (in Mississippi)
-- Only 12% of Black eighth grade males are proficient in math

4. The gender gap in psychological issues. 1 in 4 adult American women is on some type of medication for mental health needs. (source: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/11...)

My own prediction for America and the American Century? I can only hope and pray for a long and slow decline. Entropy happens.

Inwardly, I think we'll see repeats of Detroit -- the bulldozing -- across the country in failed and failing cities large and small across America in coming years. Municipal services won't be able to be maintained, so authorities will try to "pull it back". New ghost towns will arise and increase. It's already happening (google "new american ghost towns"), but it will increase. Riots like we saw in Baltimore in 2015 will happen with greater frequency. More typically, I predict we'll see "flash mob" rampages like the 2,000+ crowd of youths running through that Louisville mall over the holidays. Missed that on CNN? Yeah. They're good at that. Google "louisville mall shutdown". Dig a little deeper to read about "louisville middle school gang" and the FBI memo. Finally, the influx of illegal aliens will continue to weaken the country economically and continue to cause sporadic health crises. The same is happening now in the Migrant Crisis in Europe. Unchecked, it will continue to happen here. Infrastructure will continue to be neglected, too. Debt will become unsustainable; the people who implemented the liberal policies that caused the problems will be at a loss to explain or fix their own problems. Like children. Art and popular culture will continue in its degeneracy. We were shocked by "Piss Christ" in the 1980s, then "got over it"; shocked by gangsta rappers and gay marriage in the 2000s, then "got over it"; by the 2020s we'll be televising polyamorous episodes of "The Bachelors" and "The Bachelorettes", then get over it. Individuals will more and more retreat into virtual reality worlds. Paraphrasing Toynbee: I think everything will be dragged through the latrine and then lifted up and hailed as the "new culture," the "new politick," the "new way." Crime and instability will increase; in response, smaller and well-off communities will hire private security firms, as they're already doing in South Africa (google "private security police in communities in south africa"). The poor will suffer the most, as always. Everything will converge and become heavy under multiple weights from multiple stressors. This will be the beginning on the way to the fracturing of the U.S.

Outwardly, I think we'll continue to see challenges around the globe to American leadership in every area. The dollar will be challenged as the currency of choice and debt. Cyber attacks like the stealing of 22 million personnel records from OMB in 2014 will seem like "the good old days"; hackers will continue to probe and expose weaknesses in our infrastructure grids. Militarily, we'll continue to be challenged by Russia, China, and rising powers like Iran, directly or through their proxies. We can't be the world's policeman, and within 10-20 years we won't be able to.

One last point: Nye brings up a host of challenges that America faces, but the one I'll rebut here is "climate change." Rarely in human history has a hoax of such magnitude been perpetrated on the masses so effectively, at such scale. See more than 1,350 peer-reviewed journal articles supporting skeptic arguments against ACC/AGW alarmism here: http://www.populartechnology.net/2009...

I can only recommend this book as an extremely high-level gloss on important issues. It's too bad. Nye doesn't really serve anyone's interests except maybe his own and the few scholars he might be having that dinner party with, it seems to me.

So, in the end, does Nye think we're like Rome, or not? Not very much. But, I think the citizens in Flint, Michigan drinking water with lead for those many months (years?) would likely have a different take on things. Unfortunately, in this book, Nye's not seeing our pragmatic forest for his scholarly trees.

Did not like it
2/5 Amazon
1/5 Goodreads

[Martin Henson · Rating 3 out of 5]

In its treatment of external competition from the BRICS (China has its own chapter), and Europe, Nye’s “macro” analysis based on high-level stats is quite ok - and I learnt something. But the same approach to his internal analysis of the US (the reference to opinion polls is especially unconvincing) is woefully weak. At the political level, discussing “gridlock” felt dreadfully shallow given what is actually happening to people, communities, as well as to ideas. Reference to the low corruption rating that the US evidently has tells us more about the rating than the rated, for example. Lauding the strengths of decentralisation (p. 81) strikes me as odd when we know how it is being used at state level in recent times.

What is more interesting is the discussion of the importance of networks over hierarchies (see Niall Ferguson, whose book I have but have not yet read) and entropic forces, the consequences of living during an “information revolution”, and the way that this implies more and more powerful state and non-state actors - i.e. in particular: stop thinking just about China. These ideas and the more well rehearsed discussion of transnational issues (like climate change) lead to towards the end of the book to policy implications and recommendations that now (post Trump’s election) sound very different from how they must have sounded on publication (pre Trump). For example, the importance of working with others (e.g. the climate, trade), soft power (e.g. border issues) and diplomacy (e.g. Iran - and see also Ronan Farrow’s excellent book to see how *that’s* working out ...)

[Ryan Mcconville · Rating 4 out of 5]

For those who believe America needs to be made great again, Nye argues that it is quite great already and is likely remain so for many years to come - so long as America doesn't do anything stupid, like retreat into isolationism/protectionism, withdraw from alliances/global trade pacts, shut down immigration, or a bunch of other ill-advised ideas that seem to be popular with our new leadership. At 150 pages, this is a quick, informative read that shows just how far every other country (including China) really is from over-taking America as the leader of the free world. After a brutal presidential campaign that sought to cast America as a crumbling, decaying has-been, it is also a feel good read that highlights - to the contrary- just how special (~more advanced) our economy, military (hard power) and culture (soft power) remain, compared to every other country on the planet... It is also a warning against America retreating into an anti-globalist stance - which is one of the few policies that could truly do us harm.

[Francis · Rating 5 out of 5]

یک کتاب موجز و مفید که اطلاعات خیلی خوبی درمورد گذشته ،حال و آینده آمریکا،اروپا ،ژاپن و کشورهای بریکس ارائه میده و شرایط و مشکلات و قابلیت های بالقوه و بالفعل این کشورها رو بیان میکنه .شاید حرف کل کتاب در دو قسمت خلاصه بشه:

۱_آمریکا مشکلات زیادی دارد اما در افول مطلق به سر نمیبرد وحتا به طور نسبی نیز چه بسا در چند دهه آینده از هر دولت واحد دیگری قدرتمند تر باشد.مشکل واقعی ایالات متحده این نیست که چین یا رقیب دیگری از آن پیشی بگیرد بل این است که با افزایش منابع قدرت دیگران مواجه شود که شامل هم دولت ها و هم کنشگران غیر دولتی است.(ص ۱۰۳)

۲_ ادامه قرن آمریکا مانند آن چیزی نیست که در قرن بیستم بود.(ص ۱۱۰)


البته کتاب من ترجمه غلامرضا عل بابایی از نشر اختران بود

[Ata Kalender · Rating 3 out of 5]

Short and sweet, Joseph S. Nye Jr. provides a summary of past and present discussions on American power and hegemony, and looks into the future to predict whether the American world order will be replaced. His findings are that there was no definite, written-in-stone "American century" to start with but yes, the American century is ongoing and does not look as if it will soon be replaced. Nye lists potential challengers, Russia, China, EU, Japan, Brazil and India. He makes the point that American hegemony is increasingly tested and less probable, as these challengers and the field gain economic, military or soft powers, thus anticipating slight relative decline. However, despite issues in education or infrastructure he does not believe the US to be in "absolute" decline, i.e. decline in comparison with the US itself. He notes American strengths in technology and demographics, as well as international networks of cooperation. Nye warns of "the field" as the internet and globalization empower even the smallest of states in pursuing their goals, as well as emboldening non-state actors. Overall, this is an interesting and informative read that made me interested to delve deeper into international relations/foreign policy reading.

[Yasemin Ugur · Rating 4 out of 5]

Kitabın adı: "Amerikan yüzyılı bitti mi?"
Kitabın içinden direkt bir alıntı ile cevap: "...imkansız görünmese de çok muhtemel değil..."

[Rouhollah Abdolvahab · Rating 4 out of 5]

کتاب جالبی بود. هرچند به طرفداری از آمریکا نوشته شده بود ولی به لحاظ پیدا کردن بینش سیاسی مفید است.

[Zahraa زهراء · Rating 3 out of 5]

القرن الأمريكي هو الفترة التي هيمنت فيها الولايات المتحدة على السياسية والاقتصاد والثقافة العالمية، بما يشابه القرن الامبراطوري البريطاني الذي انتهى بنهاية الحرب العالمية الاولى 1815-1914، والذي ابتدأ في منتصف القرن العشرين، بعد الحرب العالمية الثانية، واستفحل مع انهيار الاتحاد السوفيتي، لتبقى امريكا الى حد بعيد، بلا منازع في الساحة الدولية.

في هذا الكتاب، يناقش جوزيف ناير، العالم السياسي، والعميد السابق لكلية جون كيندي للادارة الحكومية، حدود القرن الأمريكي، والأصوات الكثيرة القائلة بصعود الصين وتفوقها على الولايات المتحدة.

ما الدول المنافسة للولايات المتحدة؟
أوربا واليابان وروسيا والهند والبرازيل والصين.

حينما تتصرف اوربا ككيان واحد تصبح أعظم اقتصاد في العالم

الاتحاد الأوربي متفوق في الاقتصاد والقوة الناعمة والعلم ويمكن ان يكون منافسا في القوة العسكرية. لكن لابد ان يكون كيانا واحدا، فلا دولة تستطيع مجابهة الولايات المتحدة بمفردها. وهناك عدد من التحديات تهدد وحدة اوربا كتنامي القومية الوطنية، والخلافات السياسية. لذلك يبعد أن تنهي أوربا القرن الأمريكي.

اليابان كذلك، لن تتمكن وحدها من التغلب على امريكا، اذ سيشكل تحالفها مع الصين أو أوربا قوة هائلة. أما وحدها ،فهي أقل في عدد السكان والديمقراطية والقوى العسكرية والقوة الناعمة.

روسيا فقدت قوتها التي كانت ايام الحرب الباردة، وتظهر في مرحلة انحدار، باقتصاد المحصول الواحد وتفشي الفساد ومشكلات ديمغرافية يصعب حلها. لكن لروسيا مواهب بشرية موهوبة يمكن ان تحقق تقدما في القوة العسكرية، بالاضافة الى أنها الدولة الوحيدة التي لديها مايكفي من الرؤوس النووية لتدمير الولايات المتحدة. وقد تصبح قوة عظمى في حال تحالفها مع الصين، لكن لا يتوقع حصول مثل هذا التحالف.

الهند مستوى الفقر فيها مرتفع وغير متفوقة في العلوم مع ان فيها مهنسدين اكثر لكن بمهارة اقل، موارد بشرية غير ماهرة كما يسميهم الكاتب، مع أن لها قوى عسكرية وناعمة جيدة، ويمكن ان يشكل تحالفها مع الصين قوة عظمى؛ لكن، مجددا، لايتوقع مثل هذا التحالف.

تواجه البرازيل العديد من المشكلات الحقيقية؛ فبنيتها التحتية غير مؤهلة، والنظام القانوني لديها مثقبل بالأعباء، ولديها معدل جريمة مرتفع جدا، ومستويات فساد خطيرة.

وبذلك لاتشكل تهديدا للولايات المتحدة، لكنها يمكن أن تهيمن على امريكا اللاتينية، فلديها من القوى الاقتصادية والعسكرية والموارد الطبيعية والبشرية مايؤهلها لذلك.

وهكذا تبقى الصين هي التهديد الوحيد لنهاية القرن الأمريكي. يناقش الكاتب ان الصين أيضا لن تقهر الولايات المتحدة أيضا، فهي أضعف في القوى العسكرية والناعمة والفق. لكنها تظل تهديدا للولايات المتحدة باقتصادها الضخم ومواردها البشرية الهائلة والماهرة.

فهل لم ينته القرن الأمريكي؟ أليست أمريكا في انحدار؟
نعم

الثقافة الامريكية فيها انشقاق، لكنها تبقى قابلة للعلاج، وأقل خطورة من أي وقت مضى. والمشكلات الاجتماعية زاخرة، بعضها تحسن وبعضها تردى. ويبقى المجتمع منفتحا على العالم الخارجي. وافضل من كثير من المجتمعات في قدرته على تجديد نفسه عن طريق الهجرة. والاقتصاد الامريكي ينمو بشكل أسرع مما كان عليه في الماضي. لكنه يبقى إبداعيا في استخدام وتسويق التكنولوجيا بسبب ثقافته القائمة على ريادة الاعمال، وصناعة رأس المال الاستثماري الاكثر نضجا، والعلاقات التقليدية الحميمة بين الصناعة والجامعات الاكثر رقيا على مستوى العالم، فهي تقود العالم في مجال البحوث والتنمية وهي على أعتاب الكتروني جديد ونانو وبايو تكنولوجي وطاقة جديدة.

وهكذا ليس هذا هو القرن الصيني والانحدار الامريكي، على أنه مختلف عن القرن السابق؛ فقد استجدت مشاكل لا تحل الا بالتعاون الدولي، كالتغير المناخي ، ومحاربة الارهاب والفضاء السيبراني، أدت الى تضاؤل هيمنة احد الدول، بالتالي استمرار القرن الامريكي سيعتمد، بشكل كبير، على التحالفات.

مع القليل من ضبط النفس، والكثير من التعقيدات العالمية، ستحتاج الولايات المتحدة الى ان توجد خيارات استراتيجية ذكية، داخل البلد وخارجه على حد سواء. ومن المرجح أن يستمر القرن الأمريكي لعدد من القرون على أقل تقدير، لكن سيبدو مختلفا تماما عما كان عليه، حينما نطق بيه هنري لوس أول مرة

هذه خلاصة الكتاب. ممتع وخفيف ومفيد.
نادرا ما أقرأ في السياسية ولست متابعة جيدة لها، لكن مع ذلك، أتساءل هل ستغير حرب روسيا السخيفة الحالية من رأي الكاتب؟
أروسيا تنتحر في هذه الحرب؟ أم أنها تلميح لما هو قادم؟
إن صبغة العالمية التي يرسخها عصر المعلومات تبشر بخير، عسى أن تختفي هيمنة أي من الدول، ويصير القرن العالمي، حيث يتضاءل الولاء البغيض لقطة من الأرض محددة، ويصير التعاون العالمي هو الأهم،
والولاء للأرض كلها
لا لأمريكا ولا للصين

[Jesse Morrow · Rating 4 out of 5]

To those steeped in Nye's work, none of this is revolutionary.

Is the American Century Over? Short Answer - No.

The declinist idea that the US is about to be eclipsed is a mistake. This is taken purely on the realist GDP at PPP determination. But Nye is quick to point out that the world is more complex than that. While first we have to wonder if China will continue to grow. Linear projections showed that the Soviets in the 70s and the Japanese in the 80s would be richer than the US in the near future.

But now after accepting that maybe that linear growth continues, Nye moves thru his 40 years of work on International Relations. As the global system is more interconnected with thicker strands ("Complex Interdependence" from Power and Interdependence), overt challenges to the system bring both the US AND China down. Additionally, international relations isn't checkers, instead it's played on multiple levels - military, economic, international organizations ("Three Dimensional Chessboard" from The Paradox of American Power). Further, American cultural influence such as movies and TV and music and now social media companies (Soft Power) still dominate the global sphere.

China will not overtake the US any time soon, unless it wants to take over the international system, guarantee the global commons, compete on military, economic and soft power levels. And, all of this is assuming that China's linear growth continues apace into the future (of which Nye is also skeptical).

[Olivia Newton · Rating 3 out of 5]

A book from the library - (finished reading 1/1/2016)

The author answers this question as a 'No'. The author explains that while the new world order that America faces now is much more complex than it was in the previous century, there isn't one group or country that can take over from the United States currently. Therefore, although America may have to face the rise of many rivals in the world economic and military spheres, it does not necessarily mean that the American century is over because the US remains stronger than its rivals in hard and soft power resources.

The book analyzes America from both the relative power perspective (in regards to China, Japan, Europe, etc.) and from an absolute power perspective (America's internal decline).

To save you the time of reading this book, I gave away the answer. By all means if you are interested in this book, you can go ahead and read it. It is a fast read. However, I think there could be other much more interesting books to read on this subject but perhaps not from a scholarly perspective. However. I agree that this book is a good summary and condensed version of a lot of what you may find about the topic.

[Stephen · Rating 3 out of 5]

This is a little primer (just 127 really quick pages) on the question of American decline. The author examines the distinction between absolute and relative decline; and considers the sources of American power, and how that may be changing. Of course, the relative rise of China and the rest of the BRICs is not a trend that will necessarily continue into the future indefinitely, and I am very sympathetic to the author's view that Americans will not have a lot to worry about just yet.

However, there are weaknesses in the American system. The largest of which is its constitution. Much revered by Americans, it has recently started to display characteristics of being beyond its sell by date. Political paralysis is a feature of a constitution designed to allow nothing to get done, and that may yet highlight a political vulnerability in the years to come.

On the whole, this is a well written and well argued book by an authority in the field. I do recommend it. I liked it so much that I will have a look at other titles in the Global Futures series.

[Damien Jahan · Rating 3 out of 5]

I found Nye's analysis profoundly on point and accurate, however I would disagree with the argument he eventually reaches. Indeed, it is clear that Nye is committed to reach a realistic and objective descripition of the current state of affairs, and he does it with success. The book is imbued with figures, backed by concurring analyses, and provides an encompassing view of the situation, not an ill-considered, hasty and ominous depiction of a reality that so many far too often distort. Clashing with alarming or overconfident theories, Nye argues that the American Century is not over but that America's fate will greatly depends on domestic issues and its capacity to confront the challenges of a new era. In such times of uncertainty and fear over America's decline, his reassuring message will for sure strike a chord with readers who continuously fret over their country's future. However, I still think that speaking of an American Century is describing an alternate reality. Perhaps it is just a semantic and trivial dissension. For the rest, Nye's essay is worth the read.

[Matt · Rating 4 out of 5]

A concise overview of American political power on the world stage. While written in 2014, before the failure of the US COVID pandemic response and weakening of democratic institutions of the 2020 election, Nye's argument holds up as it focuses on macro-level arguments, such as demographics and generic US foreign policy.

The book is predictable. Nye is a well-known neoliberal and institutionalist, so his arguments are already known to any student of politics. This said, the book is recommended to any who want a short overview of US standing globally, especially in regards to the US relationship with China and the EU.

[Daniel Simmons · Rating 2 out of 5]

A tedious first half is rescued partly by the final two chapters on (a) America's decline in absolute (rather than relative) terms, which Nye convincingly rejects overall, and (b) the shift in power dynamics that has resulted from the rise of information technology and non-governmental actors among others. Nye's chapter on the rise of China is overshadowed by a host of fuller, better treatments elsewhere.

[Jennifer Sciubba]

Interesting, short take on power in the 21st C. I'm assigning to my fall course on Intl Politics since 1945.

[مُحَمَّد غازى · Rating 2 out of 5]

للأسف الكتاب ضعيف ولم يعجبني. في بداية قراءتي له دونت العديد من الملاحظات وبعدها تراجعت عن تدوين الملاحظات واكتفيت ببعض الكلمات التي قد تذكرني لاحقا بالكلام " الفاضي" الذى قرأته فيه.
يستعرض الكاتب التحديات والمشاكل التي قد تهدد الهيمنة الأمريكية وبعدها انتهاء الهيمنة الأمريكية. ويعرض مراحل صعود وهبوط وتخلخل تلك الهيمنة والتي كانت في عقود ما هيمنة أمريكية منفردة وأحيانا كانت هيمنة مشتركة مع قوى أخرى تصعد وتهبط وتتغير. يفند في أحد الفصول القوى العالمية التي تزاحم أمريكا
في بعض المجالات وتشاركها القوى الناعمة والصلبة مثل الصين وروسيا والاتحاد الأوربي واليابان والهند والبرازيل . يبين مكامن القوى والضعف لتلك الدول والتحديات التي تواجهها أو قد تواجهها اقتصاديا وعسكريا وديموجرافيا وثقافيا. يقارن بين الولايات المتحدة -كقوى عظمى مهيمنة على القرن الماضي- وروما كإمبراطورية عظمى لم تزاحمها إمبراطورية أخرى في وقتها ولكن تدهورت بسبب المشاكل الداخلية أولا وبشكل أساسي.
يلمح أيضا إلى المشاكل الأمريكية الداخلية وجمود النظام السياسي والبون الأيديلوجي الشاسع بين القوى السياسية والذى زاد في العقود الأخيرة بشكل لا مثيل له منذ القرن التاسع عشر.
يميل الكاتب بعد كل "الهري" الذى سبق ذكره إلى أن الولايات المتحدة على الرغم من المشاكل الداخلية والخارجية التي تواجهها إلا أنها لا تزال وبفارق واضح
في القمة وستزداد قوتها مستقبلا في رأيه ولكن ستقل الهيمنة لصعود قوى أخرى على الساحة.
الكتاب مليء بالتعظيم والتضخيم في قوة أمريكا ومرونتها في تحدى الصعاب. ومليء أيضاً بالهوس بفكرة الهيمنة الأمريكية أو كما يسميها" القرن الأمريكي".
أخير الترجمة كانت سيئة في نظري وركيكة جدا و"قفلتني" من الكتاب في مواضع كثيرة.

[Benjamin · Rating 4 out of 5]

An overall very good read.

I will only focus on what I notice is the parts that haven’t aged quite as well. The book is off the mark in that power will decentralize through non-state actors as seen by the current increase in power wielded by authoritarian state actors.

Additionally, the current geopolitical event, COVID-19 is proving that the open and interconnected world that this book sees as a strength of America, is also a massive weakness. Non-benign actors are disrupting more than just the democratic processes of America and it’s allies, it is also causing a rapid change in public perceptions in the West, vis-à-vis the change of the stance regarding immigrants in Europe, or the entire right-wing guidance of the Trump presidency.

If recent events are anything to go by, America will rapidly disentangle itself from the wide web of multi-national and extra-territorial activities it pursues, and will return to isolation and re-industrialization.

[Mohammad Mollanoori · Rating 4 out of 5]

یک کتاب خوب و جمع و جور در مورد نگرانی هایی که آمریکایی های لیبرال در مورد آینده ی این کشور دارند. نای در همان فصل اول نظر خود را در مورد این سوال می گوید. نه، قرار نیست آمریکا سقوط کند و نابود شود اما خطراتی وجود دارد که آمریکا باید خود را برای آن آماده کند.
نگاه نای به مداخله گرایی در کشورهای دیگر جالب است. آنجا که می گوید این مداخلات می تواند به افول آمریکا منجر شود. از نظر نای خطرات محیط زیستی و بیماری های همه گیر را نمی توان با قدرت آمریکا حل کرد ولی آمریکا لازم است راهبری همکاری کشورها را بر عهده داشته باشد.
قدرت در عصر اینترنت هم نکته ی دیگر بحث نای بود که با قدرت نرم آمیخته می شود. قدرت نرمی که نه لزوما از دولت بلکه از جامعه مدنی و بخش خصوصی نضج می گیرد.
بعد هم چهاربار اسم ایران در کتاب آمده بود. یکی همکاری برزیل با ایران، دومی نگرانی اتمی، سومی فیلتر توییتر و چهارم استاکس نت و امنیت شبکه.

[super secret sexy bookworm · Rating 5 out of 5]

A well written essay on American hegemony and global developments in the 21st century. This was a relatively short read and left me with a lot to think about, such as with the author’s discussion on militarism and the need to strengthen markets. I enjoyed this book and it left me thinking about the need for significant changes in domestic policy so that America can catch up, and keep up, with countries that have experienced significant economic expansion in the latter half of the 20th century. We are still living in a world defined by military prowess post WW2 however that is no reason for markets to reflect antagonism. It is important to consider how cultural bias can impact credibility and external leverage.

[Matthew Barotz · Rating 3 out of 5]

Definitely a comprehensive analysis of America's standing in relation to other countries, but the analysis sometimes gets so convoluted that his point gets lost (especially in chapter 6). I understand that the answer to his question isn't clearly defined so it's hard to have a well-structured argument, but that just leads to some confusing sections with a bunch of statistics thrown in that are hard to connect together.

Unrelated but it's cool how this guy literally invented the term "soft power" because I've learned about it in every IR/foreign policy discussion and it's hard to imagine a time when the term just didn't exist. Definitely shows the increase in the importance of soft power

[علم الدين · Rating 3 out of 5]

يرصد الكتاب ديون أمريكا الخارجية التي وصلت إلى رقم غير مسبوق يقدر بأكثر من 22 تريليون دولار، ودائمًا ما كان الاقتصاد هو الداعم لتأكيد إنهيار القرن الأمريكي على الرغم من وجود رأى متفائل نسبيا داخل الكتاب بأن كل القوى الموجود�� على الساحة لا تمثل خطرَا على القرن الأمريكي، وأن الولايات المتحدة سوف تستمر في السيطرة على العالم.
من وجهة نظر أخرى، تباينت الآراء حول أن تراجع أمريكا يأتي في الدرجة الأولى لإنفاقها الكبير جدًا على الأغراض العسكرية، والتى هي نتيجة لمحاولاتها الاحتفاظ بارتباطات خارجية لم تعد في إمكانها تحملها بوضعها الاقتصادي الحالي.

[Crimson 786 · Rating 4 out of 5]

The answer to the question is not the essence of book, but the debate developed by author.

The book establishes that, world in coming decades will lack clear distinction of unipolar or multipolar. Amitav Acharya has likened the world to a multiplex offering options to visitors and same is agreed by the author.

Nye Jr feels that while China may surpass US in economy, the military and soft power are still the strongholds of America.

Overall, an interesting short read.

[Ahmed Omer · Rating 2 out of 5]

كتاب رائع
ترجمة ركيكة بعض الشئ
يتناول الكاتب امور كثيرة تقيم علي اساسها القوي العظمي
وايضا مع استعراض فرضيات وامم اخري ربما تظهر علي الساحة في الاونة القادمة
بسيط اللغة والتحليل ويناسب الكل خاصة اذا كنت مهتم بهذه الامور السياسية

[Justin Xing · Rating 4 out of 5]

在信息时代去国家行为的背景下，谈论单级，多级和霸权是没有意义的。2030年的世界可能还是美国时代，但那个美国时代绝不是苏联解体后的霸权或者二战后的单级。

但这个美国时代长什么样子，将很大程度上被中美关系，跨国问题所影响。全球化还是会继续，只是它的样子会更复杂，因为贸易标准，电信法规，环境协定会和现在有很大区别。中国一定会要求自己的话语权，但确也没有理由去强行修正主义损人不利己。

所谓的美国时代，很大程度上还体现在领导力上。希望川普的四年快点过去。

[Romaissa Bellaoui · Rating 4 out of 5]

طريقة الطرح عبر اسلوب المقارنة والحجاج على كل المستويات والاصعدة التي تسمح بقيام الدول وتقدمها في قالب غير أكاديمي بسيط وسلس جدا ومنطقي، والربط بين التاريخ والجغرافيا والاقتصاد وانعكاساتها على السياسة والسيادة

[Hsin Tseng · Rating 4 out of 5]

這本是國際知名的外交事務專家 也是哈佛大學教授的奈伊為了一般民眾所寫的美國在世界地位與角色的小本書
這本書探討美國世紀是否已經落入相對或是絕對衰退 從軍事 經濟 軟實力等作多角度分析
中國的崛起是否會在不論軍事 經濟 政治 外交上都取代美國在國際上的地位
這本書資訊含量非常高與濃縮 2015年初出版 雖然已經是8年前的書並從當時的角度做分析
但從現在回過頭看 這本書仍非常具參考價值 見解精闢

[astraeus · Rating 4 out of 5]

Short book on both US domestic and international policies and situation analysis. The author is quite optimistic at the time, and some of the arguments are indeed quite insightful (pandemic, China's political system) Interesting to read