Chances Are...

by Richard Russo

From the Pulitzer Prize-winning Richard Russo--in his first stand-alone novel in a decade--comes a new revelation: a gripping story about the abiding yet complex power of friendship

One beautiful September day, three sixty-six-year-old men convene on Martha's Vineyard, friends ever since meeting in college circa the sixties. They couldn't have been more different then, or even today--Lincoln's a commercial real estate broker, Teddy a tiny-press publisher, and Mickey a musician beyond his rockin' age. But each man holds his own secrets, in addition to the monumental mystery that none of them has ever stopped puzzling over since a Memorial Day weekend right here on the Vineyard in 1971. Now, forty-four years later, as this new weekend unfolds, three lives and that of a significant other are displayed in their entirety while the distant past confounds the present like a relentless squall of surprise and discovery. Shot through with Russo's trademark comedy and humanity, Chances Are . . . also introduces a new level of suspense and menace that will quicken the reader's heartbeat throughout this absorbing saga of how friendship's bonds are every bit as constricting and rewarding as those of family or any other community.
     For both longtime fans and lucky newcomers, Chances Are . . . is a stunning demonstration of a highly acclaimed author deepening and expanding his remarkable achievement.

Genres: Fiction, Mystery, Book Club, Literary Fiction, Audiobook, Contemporary, Adult

320 pages, Hardcover

First published July 11, 2017

About the author

RICHARD RUSSO is the author of seven previous novels; two collections of stories; and Elsewhere, a memoir. In 2002 he received the Pulitzer Prize for Empire Falls, which like Nobody’s Fool was adapted to film, in a multiple-award-winning HBO miniseries.

Reviews

[Angela M · Rating 5 out of 5]

I can’t remember encountering a Richard Russo character who doesn’t seem real, as someone I could know or as someone with flaws who reminds me that all of us are flawed or that all of us are vulnerable in one way or another. Having read all of his novels and most of his shorter fiction, I have come to expect this connection that he allows us to make with his characters. He did not disappoint in his latest novel.

Three sixty- six year old men, college friends from the 60’s meet 44 years later on Martha’s Vineyard. They’ve taken different paths in life : Lincoln is in real estate, married with children and grandchildren; Teddy has never married, has been an adjunct professor and publisher of a small press that is closing up; Mickey is the forever rocker whose past remains elusive until the end of the story. Missing from this reunion is another college friend, Jacy who has not been seen or heard from since they last spent time together at Lincoln’s family house on Martha’s Vineyard in 1971. While Jacy is missing, she is ever present in the story, the girl they all fell in love with back then in college, the woman they still love and is ever present in their thoughts.

The chapters of the present and flashbacks to their pasts alternate between Lincoln and Teddy giving us their family backgrounds which in some ways have shaped who they are as adults, how they have lived their lives. We don’t hear from Mickey until the end, but through these narratives we know his background as well. Their lives were also shaped by these friendships that started in college and by the hold that Jacy had on them then and now. In many ways, this is introspective with these characters considering who they were when the draft numbers were called for Vietnam, who they are now, the choices they made, the things they did, the things they didn’t do, the secrets they kept. “It wasn’t in fact possible to strip life of its clutter for the simple reason that life was clutter.” This is one of my favorite lines in the book. In many ways the story, for me reflects choices made as the characters deal with the clutter that life is . If you are a Russo fan already, the chances that you’ll love this story are pretty good. If Russo is new to you, I’d say the chances are awfully good there too. Sorry I couldn’t help myself because I can’t get Johnny Mathis’s song out of my head ! I’m going to be singing there for a while.


(An aside : I’ve been reviewing ARCs for 5 years and Knopf pretty much never approves my requests for ARCs. I don’t give up requesting from them, especially if it’s a book by a favorite author like Russo. One of my very good Goodreads friends who knows how much I love Richard Russo’s writing lent me a copy of an Arc that she received from a mutual Book Angel friend. Many thanks to both of you! And then shock of shocks , I was approved by Knopf on Edelweiss for a review copy. Thanks to them also. )

[Will Byrnes · Rating 5 out of 5]

When the truth is found
to be lies
And all the joy
within you dies

Don't you want somebody to love
Don't you need somebody to love
Wouldn't you love somebody to love
You better find somebody to love, love - Jefferson Airplane

========================================

Lincoln, his eyes suddenly full, reached forward and touched Jacy’s face on the microfilm machine. Hey, Jace. Guess what? We’re all here. Teddy. Mick. Me. On the island. Remember the Chilmark house? Our last night together on the deck? How we all linked arms and sang? You’d laugh if you could see us now. Old men, the three of us. Old men haunted by you.

December 1, 1969, a date that will live in infamy. Well, for some, anyway. It was the day of the first lottery drawing for the new, improved selective service draft, Nixon’s ploy to reduce anti Vietnam War protests, a successful one. Three young students at Connecticut’s Minerva College are glued to the TV screen. Luck be a lady tonight. The results of that lottery resonate on the three.


Richard Russo - image from Penguin Random House Speakers Bureau

The three “hashers” (scholarship students working in a sorority dining facility as part of their work-study aid, as Russo did at the University of Arizona) remain friends through college, seeing each other off one final weekend, a Memorial Day get together at a lovely place in Martha’s Vineyard. It was a seminal few days for them all, setting the course, or at least informing the options they would have, for the rest of their lives.

In September, 2015, Lincoln Moser, still owner of said beach house, now a real estate agent in Las Vegas, is considering selling the property and wanted one last hurrah there. He invites his old pals, Teddy Novak, a retiring, small press publisher from Syracuse, and Mickey Gerardi, a bear of a musician and sound engineer, to join him. They are all 66 years old. And they were all in love with a fourth member of the Memorial Day gathering, one Jacy Calloway. The mystery of her disappearance after that weekend is the central axle around which the stories of the three friends is spun, the spokes being the web of secrets held and lies told among the three and those connected to them. Truths are revealed bit by bit.

We begin with Lincoln, product of an Eastern mother, she being the only child of a comfortable family, and the person who bequeathed him the house, and a domineering SOB of a father, one Wolfgang Amadeus Moser, incapable of error, and minority owner of a copper mine in Tucson, Arizona. Russo ironically fits him with a small frame and a squeaky voice to go with his bullying. When mom gives him the lowdown on how successful the vainglorious Wolf really is, Lincoln’s world is shaken.

Teddy Novak is the product of a two-teacher midwestern family. Problem is that they were more interested in their school-children than they were in him. Tall, skinny, and growth-spurted onto his high school basketball team, he was actually not a bad player. But another bully, this time a coach, thought he was not aggressive enough and sicced a rough player on him to try to toughen him up. Result was a fracture and a good excuse to quit the team. Teddy suffers from spells, probably some form of bi-polar disorder. He has a monastic bent, is a fan of Thomas Merton and publishes books that focus on religion. He’s good at fixing things other than himself.

Mickey Girardi arrived at Minerva almost by accident, his working class family not thinking much of his academic potential until he aced an SAT. But his true love is music. He is a particularly large person, around 6’5” with a Ruthian physique, and a penchant for hitting things. His life of deception began that weekend.

The story of this odd trio alternates between the present of the reunion (2015) and the Memorial Day weekend (1971) that has stayed with them, and shares perspectives mostly between Lincoln and Teddy. Mickey’s experiences get attention all in a bunch at the back end of the novel. We get a look at their pre-Minerva selves, their college bonding and their lives since. Each is a product of their backgrounds and their times.

This is a novel about the three male characters, with the female characters, Jacy primarily, but also Lincoln’s mother and wife, an associate of Teddy’s, and a sometime singer in Mickey’s band, serving in supporting roles.

One could see Jacy as a personification of the free spirit of the age, interacting with the cultures of the past. Lost innocence, maybe. Of course Jacy the person was tied to the past as well, engaged to a caricature of an entitled rich kid, Lance, or Vance, or Chance, and struggling with that. Another male character, an odious neighbor, Mason Troyer, offers up the sort of crudity and Harvey-Weinstein-personal-excess that has always been an element in the American character. A predator and a bully. Also a suspect to some in Jacy’s disappearance.

And speaking of mystery, Russo goes all Miss Marple on us for a while, putting Linc into the role of amateur sleuth, doing research at the local library, talking with a retired cop, maybe getting himself into a bit of trouble. In this, there is a wonderful scene in which the retired cop lays out a particularly grim scenario for Linc about Jacy’s possible demise. So, not a comfy-cozy.

The book looks at paths chosen, and how much choice there might actually have been. Were these examined lives worth living? Lincoln struggles with the Calvinism of his father.

The elect stayed elect, the damned, damned. Having once made up his mind, god never wavered in his judgment, which was just fine with Wolfgang Amadeus Moser, convinced as he was that he’d somehow merited his election and that others had somehow failed a crucial test, possibly in utero.

…leading him to wonder

Had his and Teddy’s characters already been formed? At the time, college had appeared to offer an endless smorgasbord of possibilities and it felt like they were engaged in the act of becoming. Had that been an illusion? Had they already, by that point, become?

Each looks back at what was, giving thought to what might have been.

People who do unspeakable things are often haunted by them for the rest of their lives. The rest of us, it seems to me, are more likely to be haunted by what we’ve left undone—the opportunities for generosity we’ve ignored, the times we’ve used the fact that we were busy to look the other way, other times when we were just plain selfish. Even if we’ve lived reasonably well, we’re doomed to wonder if we’ve lived best. - from Russo’s Lit hub article

The ubiquitous presence of bullies has already been noted, but another stream is the relationship of fathers and their children, particularly sons. Lincoln is clearly, for good or ill, chiseled from the same stone as his awful father in significant ways. The values Mickey’s father passed on to him stay in his consciousness for the rest of his life. Teddy’s father influenced his son via indifference. Even the retired cop, Joe Coffin, has significant father-son issues to address. And one must wonder how the odious neighbor emerged from what, by all accounts, seemed a loving home. Jacy has some serious parental issues as well.

Russo has trifurcated himself into his characters

My not wanting to go out too far on a limb, my worrying sometimes if I’m playing things too safe–all of that I off-loaded onto Lincoln. Teddy loves the life of the mind, but he knows that it can also stultify the heart. Mickey is just a kick-ass rocker. I had the same drive that Bruce Springsteen has, minus the talent. - from the Time interview

His exposure to Martha’s Vineyard began when his mother took him to a resort in Mnemsha when he was 10, determined to show him some beauty in the world, growing up as he did in an upstate New York factory town. He is the age of his characters, so looks through a common lens on the current of their mutual time. It lends a resonance to the story, one I, the same age, give or take, well recognize. As I do his take, from the above-noted article, that it can be a good thing to have an inner voice questioning our motives and doubting our honor.

Bottom line is that I liked this book a lot. Not so much, maybe, as I liked Bridge of Sighs or Empire Falls, but that is a particularly high and unfair bar. A good read for any who enjoy literary fiction, a particularly good read for us boomers. Will you like it? Chances are the chances are awfully good.

“That’s the thing about lies, right? Individually they don’t amount to much, but you never know how many others you’ll need to tell in order to protect that first one, and damned if they don’t add up. Over time they get all tangled up until one day you realize it isn’t even the lies themselves that matter. It’s that somehow lying has become your default mode. And the person you lie to most is yourself.”

Review first posted – September 20, 2019

Publication date
----------July 30, 2019 - hardcover
----------July 7, 2020 - trade paperback

=============================EXTRA STUFF

Links to the author’s GR and FB pages

My reviews of other Russo novels
-----Empire Falls
-----Bridge of Sighst
-----That Old Cape Magic

Interviews
-----Time - Richard Russo on Misogyny and Why War is Never Far Away - by Lucy Feldman
-----MV Times - Richard Russo on life and writing - by Jack Shea
-----The Times Union - Richard Russo novel on three men who reflect aspects of himself - by Jack Rightmyer
-----Foster’s - Author Richard Russo on writing and the writer’s life - by Deborah McDermott
-----The Book Show #1623 - Richard Russo audio interview with Joe Donahue– 30 minutes and well worth your time.

Items of Interest
-----LitHub - On the Moral Power of Regret
-----Knopf - ‘Chances Are…’ by Richard Russo - some info on Russo and a small excerpt
-----Waiting for a Number - a poem by Peter Balakian

Music
-----Johnny Mathis - Chances Are - with lyrics
-----Creedence Clearwater Revival - Suzy Q - live at Woodstock
-----The Street Where you Live
-----Bob Seger - Nutbush City Limits
-----Jefferson Airplane - Somebody to Love from the LP

November 30, 2019 - Literary Hub includes Chances Are in its 78 Best Book Covers of 2019

[Jim Fonseca · Rating 4 out of 5]

[Edited 7/12/22]

A different kind of book from Russo - it's set up as a murder mystery. I like his novels, I think because they are usually about towns where most of the population lives on the other side of the tracks. They remind me of my own early life in a depressed New England mill town (New Bedford MA). Usually he focuses on those who stay and those who leave.



This novel, Chances Are, still has a focus on class. The three main characters are poor enough to be scholarship boys at an elite Connecticut college and they work in the cafeteria for spending money. But the main focus of the story is on their lifelong friendship, their mutual (but likely hopeless) love for the most beautiful girl at the college, and the mystery of her disappearance years ago. They went to college in the late 60s - early 70s. All three are now 66 years old and they are holding a reunion on Martha’s Vineyard. It’s been a decade since they have seen each other.

I'll tell what the book is about, being careful not to reveal anything about the mystery of the young woman's disappearance.

The three college buddies have different personalities. One is a quiet introvert and bachelor who has had a career as a small press publisher. Another is a big loud guy who is a rock musician and sometimes punches people out. The third, a real estate agent in Los Vegas, is the only one with a stable marriage and kids.

In college they called themselves the Three Musketeers and the beautiful rich young woman hung out and went on ‘group dates’ with them (safety in numbers) even though she was engaged to a fourth guy going to a distant ivy league college.

Right after all four graduated, and shortly before she was to be married, the foursome had a last get-together on Martha’s Vineyard where one of the men’s families had inherited a house. It was also just before the big rocker guy was scheduled to go to Vietnam - bad draft lottery number. A great time was had by all.

They left the island by ferry at different times, but the girl was never seen again. Did one of the Three Musketeers decide he couldn’t take his unrequited love anymore and kill her? Did she forego the bus and decide to hitchhike from the ferry and got picked up by a murderer? Did a nasty burly neighbor on the island do her in after she refused his advances at an island party?

While on vacation on the island, one of the men runs into the former police chief from the time the girl disappeared and inadvertently re-ignites the chief's interest in the case. The chief still thinks of the three men as the main suspects in her disappearance years ago.

Russo has great humor:

The men watch the drawing on the draft numbers on a black and white TV in the cafeteria and sing ‘O, Canada’ “…which might’ve gone over better if they’d known more than the first two words of the song.”

Of one of the boys’ fathers who lived in a dumpy western town: “He was a firm believer in…’learning to love what you have’ by which he seemed to mean [the town] and himself.”

When he was a boy, the introverted man told his parents “…that he felt odd, as if some kind of instructional handbook on boyhood had been distributed to all the other boys.”

“Unable to decide, [on a college major] he opted for general studies, a curriculum designed not so much to answer the question as to postpone it.”

[Worker bees on the island were] “People for whom summer wasn’t a verb.”



A couple of other passages that I liked: “He also was slowly coming to understand that his father’s greatness, what made the man worth emulating, was his ability to love what he’d been given, what had been thrust upon him, what he had little choice but to accept.”

“What made the contest between fate and free will so lopsided was that human beings invariably mistook one for the other, hurling themselves furiously against that which is fixed and immutable while ignoring the very things over which they actually had some control.”

The chapter titles alternate among the three men and the story alternates between past – their college days and childhoods -- and present – their reunion on the island. One of them solves the mystery for us with a highly unusual but plausible story.



A good read that avoided some of the repetitiveness I found in other Russo novels. A big thank you to my sister for giving me this book.

Richard Russo is one of my favorite authors. I liked Empire Falls best, his Pulitzer Prize winner. Here are links to his books I have reviewed: I listed them in order by GR ratings. (Ratings as of 11/11/2025.)

Everybody’s Fool 4.12

Straight Man 4.00

Empire Falls 3.95

Mohawk 3.87

Bridge of Sighs 3.82

The Whore’s Child and Other Stories 3.8

Chances Are 3.70 This review)

That Old Cape Magic 3.36


Top photo from digitaloceanspaces.com/pointbblogimages
Middle photo from vineyardfastferry.com
The author from i.guim.co.uk

[Dorie - Cats&Books :) · Rating 4 out of 5]

***NOW AVAILABLE***

4 1/2 rounded down to a 4.

Oh my goodness this book takes me back! My husband, who was then my boyfriend, and I also sat in front of a TV in 1969 when the draft lottery was televised. He had a college deferment and fortunately his number was high, but the anxiety of that particular time was off the charts high. Imagine your future decided by the random calling out of a number, whether you were able to continue on the path you were leading or got sent to Vietnam. None of my friends believed in this war, barely understanding it, and yet many were sent there, died, were held prisoner or returned with bodies and minds mangled by this tragedy.

In this novel three college friends sat and waited for their numbers to be called, watching on a small TV at the back of the kitchen of the sorority house where they worked. Mickey had the lowest number and was most certainly going to be called, then Lincoln and Teddy. This day affected them all in different ways. The fourth member of their close group of friends was Jacy, the girl that everyone falls in love with . . . . beautiful, caring, charismatic, devil may care, they all loved her. She was waiting with arms open to Mickey when they left the building, she had been waiting to hear the numbers they all received.

Fast forward over forty years and the three friends have decided to reunite on Martha’s Vineyard, at the house that Lincoln’s wife owns, the last place they were all together. They are all still wondering what happened to Jacy, how they never got to say goodbye and never heard from her. She left behind a fiance whom she didn’t seem to love and parents that were grieving for their lost daughter.

As they visit the old places that held so many memories they find out the truth of how they have lived their lives. There are medical issues, financial issues, marital problems, and yet when they are together they still feel the ties that bind.

Eventually we do find out what happened that last day on the Vineyard and it is a believable though haunting ending.

Russo has crafted yet again a strongly character driven novel, this time with a mystery tied to it. I felt comfortable back in the hands of a gifted storyteller and thoroughly enjoyed the ride. I don’t feel it is quite as strong a book as Nobody’s Fool or Empire Falls but it’s still one great story and I highly recommend it.

I received an ARC of this novel from the publisher through Edelweiss.

This book is set to publish on July 30, 2019

*I just reread this book with my book club and it was a good one for discussion. I think I liked it even more reading it the second time :)

[Elyse Walters · Rating 3 out of 5]

“Who in their f#cking world would listen to Cat Stevens?”
Really????
ME!!

This novel exasperated the heck out of me.....with lengthy inconsequential long winded loquacious ramblings!!!

I enjoyed meeting Richard Russo at a book reading.
I’ve always been ‘certain’ that I would love Russo’s storytelling - but there is too much uninteresting ramblings in this book.
I’ll read “Empire Falls” sometime -
but this being my first impression of the established American author — leaves me disappointed.

I found this novel mostly boring, stereotyping, irritating....with occasional judgement-interest.
Shame on me for being such a cynical reader...
But it’s what happened.

Other than the beginning of this novel - the setup - and an intriguing excerpt that had me pause —-
“What were the odds that these three would end up assigned to the same freshman dorm suite at Minerva”.
“Because yank out one thread from the fabric of human destiny, and everything unravels. Though it could also be said that things have a tendency to unravel regardless”......
I just didn’t enjoy the sarcasm, the dialogue, the attention to braless women, the ongoing chatter about a
woman long ago they barely knew.
The many interactions between the “three stooges”... Lincoln, Micky, and Teddy
and their parents made my skin burn...itch...and exfoliate without me even touching my body.

I was shaking my head much too much!

I’ll just chalk it up to a primal reaction. I take full responsibility for my dislike.
But the question I often asked myself...
“In a day where white supremacy is no joke...
why do we need or desire this book right now”?

2.5 stars

[Tammy · Rating 5 out of 5]

Friends from college and now sixty-six years old, three men reunite at a house on Martha’s Vineyard owned by one of them. During their Vietnam era college years, all of them were in love with the same privileged, rebellious girl who rounded out their friendly foursome. What is the possibility or chance that she was in love with one of them? From the vantage point of age each man considers his life as it exists today and as it was as a college student. One plays it safe, one plays it fast and loose, and one barely plays at all. What happened to their chances of a rosy future? In some instances the impact of the father looms large.

The truth and that which is untrue are major themes. Typically, one lies to prevent consequences but tells a falsehood when one believes something to be true but doesn’t possess all of the facts. Is withholding information a lie by omission? Is there a difference between facts and reality? In the past, an unresolved event occurred that causes these questions to emerge. Rich characters, a spectacular sense of place and masterful storytelling define this brilliant novel. This was my first experience with Russo but certainly not my last.

[Zoeytron · Rating 5 out of 5]

Think of the way you looked at things in 1969, and how you see them now, 50 years later.  Any differences?  Reflect on what you can afford to lose in life, about proximate cause versus remote causes.  What part does luck play in the scenario?  There is a buried truth here that will be uncovered, based on a lie that was never actually uttered.     

This author draws a bead on his characters and it is faultless.  Wry observations on the aging process may have you nodding or smiling ruefully.  I am genuinely sorry to have closed the cover on this novel, and give it all 5 stars without hesitation.

[Karen · Rating 4 out of 5]

Three sixty-six year old men, friends since college in the 60’s.. meet up on Martha’s Vineyard for a weekend.. these are three very different type of men, then and now, and they all were secretly in love with a girl from their college days who completed their foursome “All for one, one for all.”
As the men come together on the island they are all still puzzling over an occurrence that happened here on Memorial weekend 1971 and as the story unfolds we find out all about their lives, their families, and the truth about that weekend in the past.
Although there is a level of mystery/suspense, there is quite a bit of humor involved also.
I haven’t read to many books involving the bonds of male friendship, but I really enjoyed this!

[Laysee · Rating 4 out of 5]

The book title is taken from Johnny Mathis’ song: “Chances are ‘cause I wear a silly grin, the moment you come into view. Chances are you think I’m in love with you.”

It is particularly apt as this story is about three men who each fell in love with the same woman.

The year is 2015. The setting is Martha's Vineyard. Forty-four years after they left Minerva College in Connecticut, Lincoln, Teddy, and Mickey (all age 66) meet again for a weekend of ‘recollected youth.’ This time, there is no Jacy, the love of their lives. Jacy, the beautiful girl with olive skin and curly dark hair, is wild, bold, fun-loving, vivacious, and spunky. She mysteriously disappeared on Memorial Day Weekend 1971 after having spent a few days at this same vacation spot with them. On their minds is, of course, Jacy. The four of them share a special relationship. Their motto: ‘One for all; all for one.’

Russo told an absorbing story about their friendship and the changes that impacted each of their lives in the intervening years. What moved the plot is Lincoln’s attempt to find out what happened to Jacy.

Russo raised questions about friendship and how well we know our friends. In discussing Mickey with Lincoln, Teddy remarked, “... there’s a lot we don’t know about people, even the ones we love best.... But the things we keep secret tend to be right at the center of who we are.” We may believe certain things about our oldest friends because of our love for them and our loyalty to them, but ‘Belief and knowledge were different animals.’ The discovery the three men made of each other and Jacy provided the adrenaline for this compelling story.

It has been years since I read Russo. It is good to be reminded of how enthralling and skillful he is as a storyteller.

[Ron Charles · Rating 3 out of 5]

Richard Russo’s new novel, “Chances Are . . .,” opens with a cascade of charm. Three old friends, all 66 years old, arrive at Martha’s Vineyard for a last hurrah. Russo introduces them one at a time, setting each man in a nest of youthful anecdotes that have been polished to a high luster. But if this is a story steeped in nostalgia, it’s also a story about the inevitable disruption of nostalgia.

Russo, who won a Pulitzer Prize for his 2001 novel, “Empire Falls,” has become our senior correspondent on masculinity. No one captures so well the gruff affection of men or the friction between guys from different classes. By some accident of fate, the three men at the center of “Chances Are . . .” were classmates at a small Connecticut college in the late ’60s and early ’70s. One way or another, they all managed to stay out of the Vietnam War, but the resin of their lives was set in that turbulent era, hardening into the cherished amber of friendship.

“Chances Are . . .” rotates gently through these characters — each one so appealing that you hate to let him go, though you’ll quickly feel just as. . . .

To read the rest of this review, go to The Washington Post:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/entert...

[Andy Marr · Rating 3 out of 5]

As a huge fan of Russo - and particularly 'Straight Man' and 'Nobody's Fool' - I expected great things from this book, but I was sorely disappointed. Of the six Russo books I've read, this was easily the weakest. The plot was dull, the philosophy was clichéd, and the characters, though well enough drawn, were desperately stereotyped.

[Jonathan K (Max Outlier) · Rating 5 out of 5]

A beautiful story of friendship, redemption and forgiveness, Russo has brought forth another masterpiece. Quoting from the last chapter, "... What made the contest between fate and free will so lopsided was that human beings invariably mistook one for another hurling themselves furiously against that which is fixed and immutable while ignoring the very things over which they actually had some control... "

Profound, heart warming and often humorous this is a well written story filled with insights and beauty among many other things. Highly recommended.

[☮Karen · Rating 5 out of 5]

Chances Are... awfully good that if Richard Russo writes it, I'm going to love it. 4.5 rounded up.

A deep and thoughtful story of enduring love and friendship by one of my favorite authors, that takes us back to the early 70s... the music, the pot smoking, the draft.

Three college friends get together on Martha's Vineyard 40 years after they had gone their separate ways, for a final fling at Lincoln's summer house as he ponders selling it. At 66, Lincoln is happily married; Teddy is a book editor/publisher; Mickey, always the rebel, has a rock band; and all three have never stopped loving the only female in their original group, Jacy. She went missing after their graduation from college, and no one ever decided if she ran away or if she met with foul play. Now the more they talk about it and what really went down 40 some years ago, their concern grows and as a local retired cop contributes his thoughts, they realize that suspicion could easily have fallen on them, perhaps the last people to ever see Jacy.

Lincoln and Teddy are decent people with many flaws that make them sympathetic and interesting. Mickey seems troubled yet always up for a party, and it takes longer for Lincoln and Teddy -- and the reader -- to get to know him. The guys were together the night their lottery numbers were drawn for the Vietnam War draft, and understandably this brought them closer, while ultimately ensuring they would be ripped apart come graduation. Although Russo can go on (and on - thus a half star deduction) about some subjects, in the end I loved the characters and how the mystery of Jacy was slowly revealed. Our wistful trip down memory lane included Grace Slick...

When the truth is found to be lies,
And all the joy within you dies,
Don't you want somebody to love?

[Victoria · Rating 3 out of 5]

Sex, lies and Vietnam.

It pains me to give this fewer than five stars, but this book didn’t feel like vintage Russo. I missed his sardonic humor and the foray into ordinary life that only he can elevate so masterfully. Maybe he’s trying the bridal approach…something old (male bonding, small town issues), something new (a mystery), something borrowed (quotes from his own writing) and something blue (three 66-year-old men still pining away for their college girl crush).

The writing is, as always, polished and powerful, but I did notice a few similar thoughts and phrases expressed in Bridge of Sighs, which doesn’t make them any less insightful, just not new. And while the narrative did have a certain wistfulness, the ‘it’ girl who disappeared, the resolution of this thread left me a little cold and I was surprised that Russo chose a 40-page expository dump versus a more elegant approach.

I have read all but a few of Russo’s works and while this is not on my list of favorites, it does deliver on a certain nostalgia with nuanced characters you come to recognize, if not always like, and provides a melancholic window into a bygone era. I think this will resonate more with readers who have more of a connection to the times and the feelings they elicited. For me it was a matter of like, not love.

[Chris · Rating 5 out of 5]

Astute, insightful, and deeply moving novel. I love Richard Russo's work, and CHANCES ARE captured the wistfulness of aging and regret, and how little we really understand even our closest friends.

[Lisa (NY) · Rating 4 out of 5]

I know when I pick up a Russo novel that I am going to become deeply involved with the characters. And that certainly happened with Chances Are... This is a novel about three men and their friendships. There is a plot and a twist but the focus of the novel is Lincoln, Teddy and Mickey and that was just fine with me. They felt real to me and I cared about them. I enjoyed every page!

[Jill · Rating 4 out of 5]

Anytime Richard Russo comes out with a new book, it’s a cause for celebration. I can’t think of another writer today who has so adroitly captured our deteriorating east coast small town communities and the has-beens, ne’er-do-wells, and wannabes who inhabit them. Works such as The Risk Pool, Nobody’s Fool and Empire Falls, for example, position him as the preeminent chronicler of the down-on-their-luck manufacturing towns of America.

Chances Are…is a quintessentially Russo sort of book. It’s not quite as good as the three I mention above, but it is quite good nonetheless. The novel centers around three college chums who have taken different paths and now meet in Martha’s Vineyard in the midst of their 66th year, and one “ghost.” They all were in love with an elusive and carefree woman named Jacy, who spent a summer with them more than four decades ago and then disappeared, never to be heard from again.

The book asks: what ever happened to her? Did she meet with foul play or is she hiding just out of sight? But it would not be fair to call this a mystery; rather, the novel’s theme is how “the things we keep secret tend to be right at the center of who we are.” Or, put another way, do we ever really know a person we believe we’re close to?

It’s also a book about “chances” – the immutable fate that may be fixed right from the start, the opportunities we did not take, the way we look at life from the wrong end of the telescope as we age. When do we give up on taking a chance? Do we ever give up?

The Jacy scenes come across as a bit cinematic and plotted, which is why I’m withholding the fifth star. While reading the book, I couldn’t help but see in my mind how it would play out in a movie. But don’t let that stop you. Richard Russo is darn GOOD and his fleshing out of the world of his character is, as always, expertly done.

[Karen · Rating 5 out of 5]

This is a story of friendship, redemption and forgiveness.

Richard Russo is one of my favorite contemporary authors.

A friend of mine described him this way...

"Russo is an eternal gift we readers always receive with glee and awe."

I agree.

He has a way of fleshing out a character – someone you can relate to – understand – visualize – a next door neighbor – a best friend.

This one was profound, heartwarming, humorous at times. Sad, and thoughtful. Take some time with it. You may like it.

[Amy · Rating 2 out of 5]

Cliche, cringy and predictable. I still don’t understand why these guys were so obsessed with a girl whose personality we never got to know and it wasn’t because she was “mysterious.” What you think will happen, does happen every step of the way. And of course the cliche characters.:. The macho man, the weenie and the thinker. In real life, these three would never have been friends let alone “all for one and one for all”. Then let’s throw in political views which were clearly the authors’. Give me a break.

[Martie Nees Record · Rating 4 out of 5]

Genre: Literary Mystery
Publisher: Knopf Doubleday
Publication Date: July 30, 2019

The new novel by Pulitzer Prize-winning author Richard Russo is about the complexities of male friendship. This is not a new theme for the author. Here written with his trademark humor, Russo introduces us to three male Vietnam-era college friends who are now in their mid-sixties. They are having a weekend reunion together on Martha's Vineyard. Think Springsteen's "Glory Days." It was there that they had a last-hoorah weekend after graduating from college and going on their separate ways. The difference between the weekends is that in 1970 they also had a female friend with them. All three were in love with her. The book’s title comes from the singer Johnny Mathis: “Chances are cause I wear a silly grin, the moment you come into view…” The girl has now been missing for over 40 years. This reviewer was expecting to read a novel focusing on friendships and growing older. The mystery part surprised me. (I never read the book blurb since I would read anything by Russo).

The novel is told from each of the male characters’ viewpoints. One becomes financially successful, another is broken in multiple ways, and the third still plays in his rock and roll band. Russo’s style is similar to the author Elizabeth Strout in her Pulitzer Prize-winning novel, “Olive Kitteridge.” Both are stellar at connecting the reader to ordinary people who are living through their wounds as well as their joys. The suspense of the mystery is good, but the ending is a bit of a disappointment. When we learn what happened to the missing girl, the explanation is hard to buy, especially considering the bond between the men. Saying more would be a spoiler. Still, the rich descriptions of Russo's classic “Empire Falls” can be found in “Chances.” His flawed but decent male characters show us the best of men. Once you finish the book, it hard not to reflect on your own life, especially if you are in your sixties, as I am. The author’s clarity and insight make “Chances” a thought-provoking and page-turning read.

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[Barbara · Rating 5 out of 5]

Chances are we aren't the people we once thought we were, or are we? Chances are we really never knew our friends as well as we thought, and chances are we kept (and still keep) secrets from them. Chances are memories of our youth are fuzzy at best.

At the age of 66 these three friends from college, Mickey, Teddy, and Lincoln, return to Martha's Vineyard for a reunion. Also present, but not present, is their friend and secret love, Jacy. The landscape, the moon on the water, the quaint cottage haven't changed, but not so these very genuine men. "They were far too old to convince themselves that their chances were awfully good, they the world gave them the tiniest little fuck about their hopes and dreams assuming they had any left".

Have you ever been sorry you learned the truth about something? Just as a child is shattered when learning Santa is not real, the truth rarely sets us free. Lincoln wonders if what he learned as he searches into the mystery of Jacy might be better unlearned. He also wonders if it wasn't "like those who had tried so hard to believe that the Vietnam War was just and necessary". When Jacy learns the truth about her father, her mother says to her, "Look what knowing has done to you. Your ignorance was bliss. Don't you remember how happy you used to be?" Chances are Jacy's mother was right.

What about high school and college reunions? Are we anxious to see all those people we once knew, or are we trying to recreate our youth? (It is probably a little of both.) How valid are those sacred memories? Lincoln, Teddy, and Mickey were lucky their reunion was more than a reenactment of their college years. They learned much about who they were then and who they turned out to be. What held their friendship together then bonded them still.

Chances Are has so much to say about friendship, memory, secrets, and aging. Russo can't be surpassed at character development and setting. His insights are right on; his wit always appreciated.
I have read many Russo books and all are beautifully written and thought-provoking. For whatever reason, this Russo book resonated with me. It was the right book at the right time. Chances are if you don't read this book you will be missing a book you would have long remembered.

I am a quote addict and here are some of my favorites from Chances Are.

"Was this what we wanted from our oldest friends? Reassurance that the world we remember so fondly, still exists? That it hasn't been replaced by a reality we're less fully committed to?"

"Memory, like a conscientious objector, refused to serve."

"Kind of makes you wonder. If there was such a thing as do-overs, if we all had a bunch of chances at life, would they all be different...or would they play out exactly the same?"

[Kristi Lamont · Rating 2 out of 5]

Et tu, Richard Russo?

Older white male of a certain socio-economic class navel-gazing. A mostly flat, fairly joyless book with none of the wit and intelligence fans of previous works enjoyed with those. Predictable plot, mostly stereotypical characters.

I kinda feel like I'm out here saying the emperor has no clothes. But, for real, it's like, "I guess I'd better grind one more book out to prove I'm still alive and because, well, hey, printing actual money is illegal and this is a fairly easy way to get some more."

Thanks for the good times back in the day, though.

[Jo Marie · Rating 2 out of 5]

Maybe 2 1/2 stars, but really disappointing by an author whose books I’ve enjoyed so much. A good part of this book seemed like a plodding prologue and in the last 50 pages we’re finally told the whole story. There’s some good stuff in here but surprisingly a lot of dull writing also.

[Jessica Woodbury · Rating 3 out of 5]

While I was reading this book I was reminded of how much I like Richard Russo. He is such a wise and empathetic writer. He writes mostly about men but he also does that with an understanding that men are often foolish. I enjoyed my time reading this book even though it is a kind of plot I really do not enjoy because it was still nice to get some time with Russo.

This is right up the middle for Russo, not one of his lighter comedies or one of his heavy downers, it's a kind of a mystery built around character. Lincoln, Teddy, and Mickey are all scholarship students at a small liberal arts college who end up working the same kitchen job. They get to know each other, become friends, but their bond is cemented the night they watch the Vietnam draft lottery together. Decades later, now almost-old men, they are spending a weekend together on Martha's Vineyard. While there, they are haunted by memories of their last trip to the island, spent with Jacy who no one ever saw again after that weekend.

The reason I held my nose somewhat at this book is that this is your garden variety Lost Manic Pixie Dream Girl plot. Jacy is just that kind of girl that every guy falls in love with. She is bewitching. She is charismatic. She is unattainable. This is a hard thing to get across, even for a writer of Russo's talents. (He is not the first Very Talented Writer to write this exact character and fail in this exact way.) At first no one is surprised Jacy has run off and abandoned her terrible fiance right before the wedding. But so many years later, the guys can't help but wonder if something awful happened.

I still feel pretty comfortable recommending this book, even if you are not a fan of this type of plot. There was something so relaxing about being in Russo's hands, letting him dive into these characters. The ending is over too fast (and seems awfully pat, though the characters themselves also note this) and isn't quite as satisfying as it should be, but I still found it worthwhile.

[switterbug (Betsey) · Rating 3 out of 5]

Hop on a Russo book if you want characters with character. The men and women are woeful, rueful, and belly fulla angsty wit. Moreover, they brim with shadows, blind spots, ghosts, darkness and light. CHANCES ARE… doesn’t disappoint with his cast of characters, who could walk off the pages and into your lives. There’s stifled passion and mournful regret all tucked inside their bones. It’s a book about the chances you take, the choices you make, and the secrets that eat at your heart and the atonement you thirst for in your soul. As you turn the pages, the pressure mounts toward the final disclosures between Lincoln, Mickey, and Teddy—the three Musketeers—one for all and all for one. Russo keeps his characters around long after you close the book.

In the sixties, three scholarship students meet at a liberal arts college on Martha’s Vineyard. They become lifelong friends with long stretches in-between. After almost a decade of distance, they decide to spend Labor Day weekend 2015 at Lincoln’s summerhouse on the Vineyard, provoking misty memories and murky wounds. It’s 44 years after graduation, and they are 66 years-old.

They recall their friendship with each other and with their fourth Musketeer, Jacy, the well-heeled sorority woman they were all a little (or a lot) in love with, even Lincoln, despite embarking on a new relationship with his future wife. They remember the night in December of ’69 when they watched the draft lottery on TV, waiting to see what their numbers were (I remember that myself, in the fevered tension of my living room, with two brothers to worry about). The stricken mood as one of them got #9, Vietnam deferred till finishing college.

And then came Memorial Day weekend after graduation, their last together with Jacy, who disappeared mysteriously and forever—from them, her family, and her fiancé, never to be heard from again. It still casts a shadow over their lives, and is hovering over this 2015 weekend. Jacy is the avid ghost, a permanent presence and absence that wreaks havoc on their reunion weekend.

Despite the superb characterizations, Russo flailed with his plot. The last third of the novel was overcrowded with excessive storylines and info dumps, meandering and rambling and tacking on material that didn’t connect well to the earlier narrative flow. This was a quick read; I finished in less than two days, but the superfluous drama was unnecessary and disappointing, and unfurled like declarative broadcasts. I was engaged and then I couldn’t wait for it to end. But Chances Are…Russo fans will want to decide for themselves.
Thank you to Random House for an early copy.

[Anne Bogel · Rating 4 out of 5]

Rounding up from 3.5 stars.

I'm a relatively new Russo reader, having only read Empire Falls and The Destiny Thief in the past few years. His newest is a story of male friendship, family tragedy, and how the past is never really past.

I thought this was pretty good—but definitely didn't LOVE it. (Though it's worth noting that my husband adored this book, calling it one of his favorite this year.)

It's a short novel, in which three college friends come back together for the first time in years, reunited at the very place where they spent a life-changing weekend together nearly forty years before. That was the weekend that one of their friends—a friend they were all at least a little bit in love with—disappeared, and they've been thinking about her ever since. The writing was solid but I had difficulty connecting with—and caring about—the characters. I do look forward to reading more by Russo in the future.

(Audiophile alert: I listened to about a third of this book on audio, and enjoyed it in that format.)

[CoachJim · Rating 5 out of 5]

Chances Are …
by Richard Russo

Someday, he wrote at the bottom of one of Teddy’s essays, you might actually write something worth reading. My advice would be to put that day off as long as possible. (page 41)

This advice could just as well be for Teddy’s life as much as his writing. The line is referenced a few times in the book.

The first half of the book introduces each of the 3 former college roommates before their reunion on Martha’s Vineyard in September of 2015. We get a good picture of their life up to this point and some recall of their college days. This reunion is a repeat of the weekend they spent here after graduating in the spring of 1971 with a female classmate, Jacy. Gradually there are vague hints of a mystery. These hints become bigger and bigger as the book goes on until a chapter near the end brings it crashing down on the 3 of them. Two of the characters, Lincoln and Teddy, are given most of the play with only glancing glimpses of the third character, Mickey.

After graduating they spend a weekend at the same house in 1971. As college students they were dealing with the Vietnam War and their draft status. There is a fourth character, Jacy, with whom all 3 of them are in love.

These are the ingredients for the mystery as it unfolds.

The story is structured well with all the pieces fitting nicely together with a satisfying conclusion. The pace will keep you enthralled as you near the end. The dialogue between the characters also becomes more interesting and intense as the book proceeds. In fact the book seems to have two parts, The first where the characters are introduced, and the second as the mystery unfolds.

I especially liked the symbolism of the first weekend taking place in the spring of their adult lives, and the reunion weekend taking place as 66 year-olds in the fall of their lives.

So how then does the line quoted above apply to Teddy’s life? Perhaps, as in Teddy’s case, he may have a better story to tell as he completes his life’s experiences. Aren’t we all a little wiser as we get older? In fact one of the 66 year-old states:

Jesus, sixty-six years old.
…
After all, diminishment seemed to be the order of the day. Wouldn’t you think the spirit, unshackled at last from so many of the body’s youthful imperatives and bolstered by the wisdom of experience, would finally become ascendant? Wasn’t memory, that bully and oppressor, supposed to become soft and spongy? (page 39)

I have difficulty rating a book immediately after I read it but I am not hesitant to gives this one 5 stars. I have read several (not all) of Richard Russo’s books and a couple stand out as favorites (Straight Man and Nobody’s Fool), but some of the others including Empire Falls were not ones I would re-read. After this book I will be looking for some of the ones I have skipped.

[Tooter · Rating 4 out of 5]

3.5 Stars rounded down.

[Alex · Rating 3 out of 5]

3.5

A solid but not great exploration of male friendship. Looking at three friends decades after meeting, Russo explores a sad mystery that has shaped their lives since the end of college. The story has a moments of profound introspection but at the same time I found the writing less than exciting. My first Russo, probably not the best starting point but I'll be back.

[Julie · Rating 3 out of 5]

Charming in tone, setting, and plot, Chances Are settles into a comfort zone that is as familiar as a favorite ratty old sweater, broken-in blue jeans, or those running shoes you can slip into without having to untie the laces. Russo returns to small-town New England, this time to storied Martha's Vineyard, and his favorite themes of aging men, unrequited love, and nostalgia.

Chances Are is billed as a mystery, the plot centered around the missing Jacy, a gorgeous, braless, free spirit who disappeared from the island one day in 1971 after spending a long weekend with her three best friends, Lincoln, Teddy and Mickey. Forty years later, the three men meet up on the Vineyard to reminisce. The narrative is relayed from alternating perspectives as the three friends and former college roommates relive their pasts and rue their present. Each was in love with the unattainable Jacy and her disappearance is the guiding regret of their adult lives.

As the suspects mount and the story unfolds, Chances Are becomes a series of rambling flashbacks and lovely reflections. The mystery surrounding Jacy's disappearance is revealed in a clumsy information dump towards the end that makes all the red herrings introduced earlier perfunctory and pretty silly, really.

Russo is compulsively readable, always. His characters and settings are so delightful. There are many achingly gorgeous scenes here that make the goofy plot and the tired trope of mysterious, beautiful girl with traumatic past bearable. At its heart, Chances Are is a darling bromance, but not much of a stretch for a writer who can afford to rest on his laurels.