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Микротренды, меняющие мир прямо сейчас
Глобальные тренды всегда возникают из совокупности множества микротрендов. А те, в свою очередь, базируются на прорывных идеях. Как понять, какая идея «выстрелит», а какая — нет? Нужно отлично ориентироваться в уже существующих потребностях, прогнозировать, что будет популярно в будущем, и знать правила формирования уже существующих микротрендов. Корейская косметика и мужчины-домохозяйки, браки по интернету и «письма из Африки», популяризация ЛГБТ и снижение доверия к банкам, активность иммигрантов и биохакинг, легализация марихуаны и увлечение дронами — это малая часть примет времени последних 10 лет.
Как возникают современные микротренды, какие у них перспективы, какие принципы лежат в их основе — об этом и многом другом интереснейшая книга Марка Пенна, социолога и политтехнолога, к услугам которого не единожды обращались Билл Клинтон, Тони Блэр и Билл Гейтс. Объективный и отчасти безжалостный обзор современных трендов создан при участии Мередит Файнман, основательницы и директора FinePoint Digital PR, публициста и автора статей в Harvard Business Review, Entrepreneur, Elle, Marie Claire, The Washington Post.
Как возникают современные микротренды, какие у них перспективы, какие принципы лежат в их основе — об этом и многом другом интереснейшая книга Марка Пенна, социолога и политтехнолога, к услугам которого не единожды обращались Билл Клинтон, Тони Блэр и Билл Гейтс. Объективный и отчасти безжалостный обзор современных трендов создан при участии Мередит Файнман, основательницы и директора FinePoint Digital PR, публициста и автора статей в Harvard Business Review, Entrepreneur, Elle, Marie Claire, The Washington Post.
430 pages, Hardcover
Published January 1, 2019
84 people are currently reading
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Displaying 1 - 27 of 27 reviews
July 22, 2021
Another reviewer wrote that a futurist book like this is a kind of time capsule, highlighting the topics that are top of mind during the time period when the book was written, and often focused on the author’s interests. This seems true here. The author, from both the political and tech realms, provides some interesting food for thought on trends in these areas. He also provides interesting analysis on trends in other areas, especially social and health. The author writes dozens of chapters, all on different topics. I appreciated the organization, which made it easier to follow. I had read the author’s earlier “Microtrends” book, written more than a decade ago, just a couple of years ago. I found the author’s take on future trends interesting then as well, but I noted that he had missed a few, like cloud computing. Here he changes tune to correct that mis-prediction. Feels more correct now, making me wonder if just the opposite will happen.
I’ve always found these type of futurist books, covering a wide variety of topics, are great food for thought when doing long term planning. The analysis, and often odd choice of topics, helps creativity, and reminds that not everything happens using straight line projections. You can sense some of the prose seems very pro conservative, and other seems just the opposite. Quite interesting to follow the author’s reasoning. You can also see the author’s suggestions as to making elections better, written after the 2016 elections and reflecting what I believe was the liberal thought at the time, now reads like the post-2020 election conservative viewpoint. Talk about a time capsule.
I listened to this on audio. There are a large number of chapters on different topics. I found it a little hard to keep track what was being discussed, but this was not a huge problem, just something to look out for when listening – this may require more attention than some audiobooks. I also note that the author quotes from a prodigious number of sources. This includes quotes as well as statistical information. On audio, this can be difficult to listen to and follow, and this is probably a good reason to recommend the print/ebook versions if you have great interest in these topics.
I’ve always found these type of futurist books, covering a wide variety of topics, are great food for thought when doing long term planning. The analysis, and often odd choice of topics, helps creativity, and reminds that not everything happens using straight line projections. You can sense some of the prose seems very pro conservative, and other seems just the opposite. Quite interesting to follow the author’s reasoning. You can also see the author’s suggestions as to making elections better, written after the 2016 elections and reflecting what I believe was the liberal thought at the time, now reads like the post-2020 election conservative viewpoint. Talk about a time capsule.
I listened to this on audio. There are a large number of chapters on different topics. I found it a little hard to keep track what was being discussed, but this was not a huge problem, just something to look out for when listening – this may require more attention than some audiobooks. I also note that the author quotes from a prodigious number of sources. This includes quotes as well as statistical information. On audio, this can be difficult to listen to and follow, and this is probably a good reason to recommend the print/ebook versions if you have great interest in these topics.
April 24, 2018
Apparently I liked this book better than other readers. I think this is the best non fiction book I have read in years. Not too hard a read if you have decent analytical skills. To me this was an engaging pager turner I couldn't put down. It covers a lot of microtrends fairly. Highly recommended. Does include some mild statistics.
September 10, 2019
Good and interesting, but very focused on US.
August 16, 2018
Brilliant analysis and insight into many corners of everyday life, from politics to personal assistants.
A very worthwhile read, Penn commented on trends new to me and added perspective on trends known to me.
One very positive compliment: Penn's book made me uncomfortable from time to time, really making me stretch to understand where the world might be headed.
Another positive: I found his commentary on Trump and how he came to be to be erudite and exactly what is missing from common commentary and analysis. (While a new view to me, I also found Penn's direct commentary on Russian Facebook/election hacking to be very credible.)
A very worthwhile read, Penn commented on trends new to me and added perspective on trends known to me.
One very positive compliment: Penn's book made me uncomfortable from time to time, really making me stretch to understand where the world might be headed.
Another positive: I found his commentary on Trump and how he came to be to be erudite and exactly what is missing from common commentary and analysis. (While a new view to me, I also found Penn's direct commentary on Russian Facebook/election hacking to be very credible.)
June 10, 2020
Microtrends Squared was an interesting read, but futurism is inherently difficult to judge. Penn uses a mixture of national polls, articles, and personal experience (as a part of the Clinton administrations/campaigns and as an executive at Microsoft) to identify interesting trends in behavior within society. Reading this book after the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic feels a bit unfair. The book came out in 2018, and the pandemic (and its effects) are something I wouldn't expect anyone to have considerably forewarned on (though Penn's former boss, Bill Gates had). Already a few of the trends he identified feel a bit dated or obvious.
However, I enjoyed the read as a time capsule possibly more than as a look into the future. Many of the topics seem particularly relevant to the 2016 to 2018 era. This is especially true for his political section, which does a fair job of teasing out populations within the electorate that supported Trump in 2016. His political section read more as an explanation and a warning rather than a true look at the future.
The trends that seemed the most interesting to me were those that highlighted the changes in gender roles, higher education, mobile first technology, cloud support for entrepreneurs, and the rise of the personal service industry. This is likely a reflection of own personal biases and interests. I believe in these trends and have either supported them or invested in them personally.
I will give credit that Penn highlighted some aspects of society I had rarely thought about (such as third time divorcees, Korean beauty products, percentages of people with roommates, among others). Its worth a read or a scan to gather some baseline knowledge of a wide swathe of changes taking place in our society.
However, I enjoyed the read as a time capsule possibly more than as a look into the future. Many of the topics seem particularly relevant to the 2016 to 2018 era. This is especially true for his political section, which does a fair job of teasing out populations within the electorate that supported Trump in 2016. His political section read more as an explanation and a warning rather than a true look at the future.
The trends that seemed the most interesting to me were those that highlighted the changes in gender roles, higher education, mobile first technology, cloud support for entrepreneurs, and the rise of the personal service industry. This is likely a reflection of own personal biases and interests. I believe in these trends and have either supported them or invested in them personally.
I will give credit that Penn highlighted some aspects of society I had rarely thought about (such as third time divorcees, Korean beauty products, percentages of people with roommates, among others). Its worth a read or a scan to gather some baseline knowledge of a wide swathe of changes taking place in our society.
This entire review has been hidden because of spoilers.
May 10, 2018
So... What this book tries to do is to lead with some of the trends that seem to be engaging against or in compliment with the established social grains. Book is structured in various social themes. What I found most instructive for me was the politics section where MP gently points out the election of Trump wasn't a electorate gone bonkers(my word) but rather; and this a gist of the book's analysis, of how the simmering discontent professionally, socially, economically and the weakened infrastructure to address issues which have been left largely to their own devices. Another point is to actively seek out alternatives and screw the pessimism so prevalent in the media and careless opinions for those so easy to defend identity politics against more bread and butter issues. I enjoyed this book, some more then others but an entertaining read. I look forward to the next microtrends addressed.
May 8, 2019
Terrific insight into microtrends that have huge impact--includes relationships, lifestyles, technology, health, politics, and work. Interesting statistics that illustrate the seismic and subtle shifts that have occurred. Strongly recommend.
December 5, 2018
Arguably one of my top five books this year and one I will be promoting in my circle of friends, family and business associates. This is a must read for everyone trying to make sense of the socio-political-economic developments of the past 5-10 years. This has helped me evolve and inform my positions on many issues in surprisingly new ways. I feel less angst and frustration because of my improved understanding on so many micro-trends working their way through the society and global community. Mr. Penn shares important suggestions to consider in light of these evolving micro-trends, with what I consider almost prophetic precognition of where we are heading devoid of needs adjustments as a society and culture. I picked this copy at the library but am buying a hard copy for myself for continued reference and customary highlighting with notes on the page margins (making it mine-Internalizing).
March 2, 2019
Didn't really enjoy the book though...
But there were parts of it that gravitate me towards wanting to know the why behind it and what is there to be done after. All in all, the book is a good read for someone who might have some background in the world of trends that is set by people nowadays. But it is also an introductory book to someone who has not seen a side of what makes trend what it is today through different statistics and facts about our world that we live in.
As someone who lives outside of the European world, it somewhat got me thinking of what it could be like in the eastern world where we are all defined by the trends that people or even the government set in place. But also, as a generation of thinkers and believers who act, feel that it could also remind us that what we have today is far more different than what it was used to.
But there were parts of it that gravitate me towards wanting to know the why behind it and what is there to be done after. All in all, the book is a good read for someone who might have some background in the world of trends that is set by people nowadays. But it is also an introductory book to someone who has not seen a side of what makes trend what it is today through different statistics and facts about our world that we live in.
As someone who lives outside of the European world, it somewhat got me thinking of what it could be like in the eastern world where we are all defined by the trends that people or even the government set in place. But also, as a generation of thinkers and believers who act, feel that it could also remind us that what we have today is far more different than what it was used to.
This entire review has been hidden because of spoilers.
April 21, 2019
Many of the trends were in the first book or just reiterations of similar trends in another part of the book. Something the author did in this book that he really didn’t do in the first was input his personal opinions and suggestions a bit more, and it was usually in a judgy tone. I’m was just here for the the data, sir.
March 2, 2019
I'm conflicted. Early on he makes the ridiculous statement " Women have always had a lot of power in marital relationships..." (Uh, being considered property is not powerful) so it was hard to be open to his perspective. There is tons of relevant information in the book, and some good ideas.
June 18, 2018
Much better and more relevant than the first in the series.
October 31, 2018
Microtrends blows my mind - I read the first rendition in 2007 or so, and this updated version is AMAZING and fascinating as hell. Highly suggest the read.
November 1, 2018
Generally an interesting read but grew bored with it over time.
May 13, 2019
Most of the points aren't that interesting and are already discussed on Twitter. Should be done as a twit-storm instead of a book.
June 19, 2019
Interesting especially regarding social changes.
August 11, 2019
Perspective from what is driving the micro trends and disruptions associated with these trends.
February 28, 2020
Read as a counterpoint to the idea of luck. Very interesting research and lots of visual data to support the research. An eye-opining read.
November 18, 2020
Interesting insights which seem obvious once you read about them.
January 12, 2022
I fast read this book with chapters that I find interesting. The book pack with a lot of number, statistic and facts around our digitalized world toady. It is fun to know few new facts or things.
June 22, 2024
Brilliant and visionary. Very nuanced view of the conflicting forces shaping our world.
August 15, 2020
Focus on America but still relatable.
July 16, 2018
Mostly about the same 2 trends. Society getting older; technology getting faster. Love the mini-chapters.
Interesting chapter about “10x millionaires” saying $10 mil is the new $1 mil. They still feel middle class because of the 100x and above. “While only 17% of new millionaires ever attended private school, over 55% of their children go private.” Less generous, more depression/loneliness.
Best chapter was “Impressionable Elites Revisited” saying more educated people less likely to think independently. Finds it amusing that every educated liberal is certain that Trump - Russia collusion & money laundering is absolutely certain. Crazy fact (via FB data): low social class people have nearly 50% more international friends than high social class people”. Lower tier Americans have immigrant friends, not the upper tier. Elites are increasingly disconnected from the broader population, “rejecting what happened across 2 continents (Trump and Brexit) and reading books like Hillbilly Elegy; treating the other half like zoo specimens.”
Interesting chapter about “10x millionaires” saying $10 mil is the new $1 mil. They still feel middle class because of the 100x and above. “While only 17% of new millionaires ever attended private school, over 55% of their children go private.” Less generous, more depression/loneliness.
Best chapter was “Impressionable Elites Revisited” saying more educated people less likely to think independently. Finds it amusing that every educated liberal is certain that Trump - Russia collusion & money laundering is absolutely certain. Crazy fact (via FB data): low social class people have nearly 50% more international friends than high social class people”. Lower tier Americans have immigrant friends, not the upper tier. Elites are increasingly disconnected from the broader population, “rejecting what happened across 2 continents (Trump and Brexit) and reading books like Hillbilly Elegy; treating the other half like zoo specimens.”
November 15, 2018
So many lessons and ideas for opportunities. I listened to this book and realized that I will need a physical copy as well to be able to use the statistics and insights for my own students and clients.
May 22, 2023
# REVIEW QUESTION
- 在现今看似许多选择的时代，可是我们做出的选择却更少了。
在前序作者有提到在这个时代我们看似选择变得越来越多，可是我们做出的选择其实越来越少。在本书提到的例子就是原本一个餐厅它只有鱼和肉选择，然而它加入了其他的选择例如牛肉，可是选择鸡肉的人还是选择鸡肉选择牛肉的人还是选择牛肉。更多的选择只会更加分裂社会，民众只会选择他们喜欢的选择。
可是作者没有提出更多选择后会让人们更加固化自身选择和分裂社会的因果关系。
- 反作用趋势
反作用趋势打个比喻就是当有一群人朝向保守，另一群人就会拥抱自由。
# 家庭与情爱微趋势
## Chapter 1
- 二当家丈夫
作者在书中提到目前在世界各地男性担任起照顾家庭的责任有持续上涨的趋势。作者把这个现象归咎于工作形式的改变。现今时代对于重劳动要求的工作减少以及对学业的要求不断提升，从美国大学毕业的数据来看女性和男性的比率分别是60%，40%。因此现今女性就业率以及薪资处于上涨趋势。
- 二当家丈夫的阻碍
二当家丈夫的婚姻通常可以分为两类。第一是出于自愿决定于妻子作为家庭支柱。第二是迫于无奈。根据 (时代杂志) 的调查发现，出于自愿决定的家庭会比迫于无奈来的幸福。
然而在女主内男主外的传统观念中，二当家丈夫就非常的难以达成。作者还提出在现今社会女主内男主外的传统观念还会带来其他问题。例如，在南韩已经有许多女性选择不婚不孕。这是因为在现今社会女性的教育程度越来越高，职场阶梯也不断提高。然而当他们如果要选择结婚可是丈夫或社会却不可以接受二当家丈夫。这些优秀的女性或许被迫放弃工作照顾孩子或许需要两者兼得，在这样的环境底下她们有第二个选择就是选择不婚不孕。
## Chapter 2
- 不婚一族未来必定减少
作者在这边提出一个非常有趣的点，就是他预测未来不婚主义的人一定会减少。虽然他没有给出合理的推理，可是他是依照这目前其实有大约一半的未婚人士是想要结婚只是找不到合适的伴侣罢了。
## Chapter 3
- 开发式婚姻
作者在书中提到一个婚姻概念是“开发式婚姻”，开发式在美国已经是越来越普遍的现象了。这个概念主要是说另一半是主要依念对象，可是也可以应许有其他的依念对象。可是作者还是提出他的反作用趋势，他认为未来人们会厌倦这种婚姻从而回到典型的一夫一妻制度。
## Chapter 4
- 银发单身汉
在本书中有提到目前离婚普及间接造成了越来越多的老师单身男女。可是作者提到说目前的单身男女并不是我们想象中的那样，一个人孤伶伶的坐在落满树叶的公园椅子而是他们会在网络或社区上寻找新伴侣。
- 老人性生活
在另一个调查发现其实现在的老人性生活是有上涨的趋势了。这是因为现在有许多治疗性生活的药物。可是随着老人性生活的提升，随之而来的是行病的提升。因为比起年轻男女，老年人在性生活的时候比较不会使用避孕套。因为老年人已经不会怀孕了。
## Chapter 5
- 在婚盛行
作者提到在美国在婚人数越来越多，梅开三度的人也是日渐增多。他也提到一个趋势就是通常在婚的人他选择的对象也是在婚的。
作者提到虽然结婚的人数不断下降可是在婚的人数不断增加。因此我们可以看到现在有许多婚宴的新创公司。
## Chapter 6
- LGBT
作者也有提到虽然LGBT的议题在美国或全世界越来越被关注。可是绝大多数的人只是注意同性恋和跨性别人士而已。双性恋群体是严重被忽视的，因为在目前双性恋在社会上还是被歧视的包括被同性恋群体歧视。
## Chapter 7
- 网络约会，社会分级
可能在我们的想象中网络交友应用可以打破社会一贯遵从的门当户对机制，可是作者现今却不那样认为。他觉得网络交友应该会把约会市场重心分层，好让人们可以门当户对。
在我的理解中可能现在的应为都有大数据和筛选机制，从而你只会接触到你喜欢类型的人，而接触不到其他的。
## Chapter 8
- 独立已婚族
作者在书中提到，独立已婚族在世界各地越来越常见。作者猜测这是人们越生根蒂固的个人习惯所造成的。
作者也有提到现在越来越多夫妻都会选择独立旅行，作者猜测未来旅行社会提供越来越多独立旅行的配套。
# 政治微趋势
## Chapter 42
- 旧经济选民崛起
旧经济选民指的是那些依靠工业的劳动阶级选民。川普之所以会胜选作者把他归咎于旧经济选民的崛起。在现在的新经济时代，许多劳动阶级失去工作以及薪金停止不前，从而然川普获得他们的选票。可是作者认为旧经济选民的微趋势不会在延续多十年。
在我的理解之中或许现在美国的旧经济选民已经处在一个比较安稳的状态了，从而旧经济选民对经济的关注程度已经不在第一位了。
## Chapter 43
- 悲观情绪衍生美国社会
作者在书中提到虽然美国现今社会比过往更加的繁华且富裕，可是还是有越来越多的人对未来持有悲观的想法。例如绝大多数人相信川普只所以会赢是因为网络选战，可是当时大多数的媒体都是散播川普的负面新闻这样照理来说川普应该会赢吧。书中还有提到一个很直接的例子就是当一个贴文写这“某某高颜值明星十年不见竟然变成将的样子”这种带有一点负面消息的贴文比起正面新闻更有说服力。
## Chapter 44
- 不敢表达政治倾向
在美国有需多人是不敢表达自己的政治倾向的。例如，不敢在家人或同时面前表达。作者提出更是有许多导致离婚的原因是政治倾向问题。以及作者也有提起就是电话民调和网络民调的差异性。这是因为在电话民调访问中被访问的人可以从题目中听出对方来自哪一个阵营，从而说出对方喜欢的答案。
## Chapter 45
- 浅见精英
作者在书中提到现在越来越多浅见精英。他们拥有高学历可是他们却没有质疑的能力。最直观的例子就是他们相信俄罗斯人出资10万美元帮助川普助选就会在一场花了24亿美元的选举中照成巨大选举结果的影响。然而作者提到浅见精英比起劳工阶级反而只有更少的机会来接触不同文化的人。
## Chapter 46
- 懒骨头选民
本书作者提到懒骨头选民对摇摆州的影响力。本书也有提到要提高他们的投票意愿就要要从选战下手，政党不断的述说不投票给我会对你们这些选民有什么后果来提高懒骨头选民的投票率。
在这儿我就想到了，每当选举的时候就有很多的人不断的诉说这要提高投票率。可是我们要反思一下，投票率高真的是一件好事吗。在2020年的美国选举投票率创下120年新高，可是也是选战花费最高的一年之一。其实高投票率背后的其中一个因素可能就是社会不断的分化的结果。因为只有当你觉得让你不支持的阵营赢得选举的时候国家会发现不堪设想后果的时候，你才会有去投票的动力。
就像在⟪如何改变一个人⟫本书中有提到，一个让英国可以脱欧的因素就是不断的灌输英国选民知道如果不脱欧的后果等等。
- 在现今看似许多选择的时代，可是我们做出的选择却更少了。
在前序作者有提到在这个时代我们看似选择变得越来越多，可是我们做出的选择其实越来越少。在本书提到的例子就是原本一个餐厅它只有鱼和肉选择，然而它加入了其他的选择例如牛肉，可是选择鸡肉的人还是选择鸡肉选择牛肉的人还是选择牛肉。更多的选择只会更加分裂社会，民众只会选择他们喜欢的选择。
可是作者没有提出更多选择后会让人们更加固化自身选择和分裂社会的因果关系。
- 反作用趋势
反作用趋势打个比喻就是当有一群人朝向保守，另一群人就会拥抱自由。
# 家庭与情爱微趋势
## Chapter 1
- 二当家丈夫
作者在书中提到目前在世界各地男性担任起照顾家庭的责任有持续上涨的趋势。作者把这个现象归咎于工作形式的改变。现今时代对于重劳动要求的工作减少以及对学业的要求不断提升，从美国大学毕业的数据来看女性和男性的比率分别是60%，40%。因此现今女性就业率以及薪资处于上涨趋势。
- 二当家丈夫的阻碍
二当家丈夫的婚姻通常可以分为两类。第一是出于自愿决定于妻子作为家庭支柱。第二是迫于无奈。根据 (时代杂志) 的调查发现，出于自愿决定的家庭会比迫于无奈来的幸福。
然而在女主内男主外的传统观念中，二当家丈夫就非常的难以达成。作者还提出在现今社会女主内男主外的传统观念还会带来其他问题。例如，在南韩已经有许多女性选择不婚不孕。这是因为在现今社会女性的教育程度越来越高，职场阶梯也不断提高。然而当他们如果要选择结婚可是丈夫或社会却不可以接受二当家丈夫。这些优秀的女性或许被迫放弃工作照顾孩子或许需要两者兼得，在这样的环境底下她们有第二个选择就是选择不婚不孕。
## Chapter 2
- 不婚一族未来必定减少
作者在这边提出一个非常有趣的点，就是他预测未来不婚主义的人一定会减少。虽然他没有给出合理的推理，可是他是依照这目前其实有大约一半的未婚人士是想要结婚只是找不到合适的伴侣罢了。
## Chapter 3
- 开发式婚姻
作者在书中提到一个婚姻概念是“开发式婚姻”，开发式在美国已经是越来越普遍的现象了。这个概念主要是说另一半是主要依念对象，可是也可以应许有其他的依念对象。可是作者还是提出他的反作用趋势，他认为未来人们会厌倦这种婚姻从而回到典型的一夫一妻制度。
## Chapter 4
- 银发单身汉
在本书中有提到目前离婚普及间接造成了越来越多的老师单身男女。可是作者提到说目前的单身男女并不是我们想象中的那样，一个人孤伶伶的坐在落满树叶的公园椅子而是他们会在网络或社区上寻找新伴侣。
- 老人性生活
在另一个调查发现其实现在的老人性生活是有上涨的趋势了。这是因为现在有许多治疗性生活的药物。可是随着老人性生活的提升，随之而来的是行病的提升。因为比起年轻男女，老年人在性生活的时候比较不会使用避孕套。因为老年人已经不会怀孕了。
## Chapter 5
- 在婚盛行
作者提到在美国在婚人数越来越多，梅开三度的人也是日渐增多。他也提到一个趋势就是通常在婚的人他选择的对象也是在婚的。
作者提到虽然结婚的人数不断下降可是在婚的人数不断增加。因此我们可以看到现在有许多婚宴的新创公司。
## Chapter 6
- LGBT
作者也有提到虽然LGBT的议题在美国或全世界越来越被关注。可是绝大多数的人只是注意同性恋和跨性别人士而已。双性恋群体是严重被忽视的，因为在目前双性恋在社会上还是被歧视的包括被同性恋群体歧视。
## Chapter 7
- 网络约会，社会分级
可能在我们的想象中网络交友应用可以打破社会一贯遵从的门当户对机制，可是作者现今却不那样认为。他觉得网络交友应该会把约会市场重心分层，好让人们可以门当户对。
在我的理解中可能现在的应为都有大数据和筛选机制，从而你只会接触到你喜欢类型的人，而接触不到其他的。
## Chapter 8
- 独立已婚族
作者在书中提到，独立已婚族在世界各地越来越常见。作者猜测这是人们越生根蒂固的个人习惯所造成的。
作者也有提到现在越来越多夫妻都会选择独立旅行，作者猜测未来旅行社会提供越来越多独立旅行的配套。
# 政治微趋势
## Chapter 42
- 旧经济选民崛起
旧经济选民指的是那些依靠工业的劳动阶级选民。川普之所以会胜选作者把他归咎于旧经济选民的崛起。在现在的新经济时代，许多劳动阶级失去工作以及薪金停止不前，从而然川普获得他们的选票。可是作者认为旧经济选民的微趋势不会在延续多十年。
在我的理解之中或许现在美国的旧经济选民已经处在一个比较安稳的状态了，从而旧经济选民对经济的关注程度已经不在第一位了。
## Chapter 43
- 悲观情绪衍生美国社会
作者在书中提到虽然美国现今社会比过往更加的繁华且富裕，可是还是有越来越多的人对未来持有悲观的想法。例如绝大多数人相信川普只所以会赢是因为网络选战，可是当时大多数的媒体都是散播川普的负面新闻这样照理来说川普应该会赢吧。书中还有提到一个很直接的例子就是当一个贴文写这“某某高颜值明星十年不见竟然变成将的样子”这种带有一点负面消息的贴文比起正面新闻更有说服力。
## Chapter 44
- 不敢表达政治倾向
在美国有需多人是不敢表达自己的政治倾向的。例如，不敢在家人或同时面前表达。作者提出更是有许多导致离婚的原因是政治倾向问题。以及作者也有提起就是电话民调和网络民调的差异性。这是因为在电话民调访问中被访问的人可以从题目中听出对方来自哪一个阵营，从而说出对方喜欢的答案。
## Chapter 45
- 浅见精英
作者在书中提到现在越来越多浅见精英。他们拥有高学历可是他们却没有质疑的能力。最直观的例子就是他们相信俄罗斯人出资10万美元帮助川普助选就会在一场花了24亿美元的选举中照成巨大选举结果的影响。然而作者提到浅见精英比起劳工阶级反而只有更少的机会来接触不同文化的人。
## Chapter 46
- 懒骨头选民
本书作者提到懒骨头选民对摇摆州的影响力。本书也有提到要提高他们的投票意愿就要要从选战下手，政党不断的述说不投票给我会对你们这些选民有什么后果来提高懒骨头选民的投票率。
在这儿我就想到了，每当选举的时候就有很多的人不断的诉说这要提高投票率。可是我们要反思一下，投票率高真的是一件好事吗。在2020年的美国选举投票率创下120年新高，可是也是选战花费最高的一年之一。其实高投票率背后的其中一个因素可能就是社会不断的分化的结果。因为只有当你觉得让你不支持的阵营赢得选举的时候国家会发现不堪设想后果的时候，你才会有去投票的动力。
就像在⟪如何改变一个人⟫本书中有提到，一个让英国可以脱欧的因素就是不断的灌输英国选民知道如果不脱欧的后果等等。
This entire review has been hidden because of spoilers.
December 12, 2020
This book is LITTERED WITH TYPOS! Horribly distracting. Mark Penn needs a new editor. Each chapter is basically an article he wrote for the Wall Street Journal so I should've expected quick quips about "how ___ has changed" with infographics and judgey statements about (Millenials, women, techies, wellness freaks, etc.) but seriously? How was this published with so many glaring typographical errors?!
October 7, 2019
I liked the initial reading. The trends that were highlighted or how old generation is growing with sex ratio getting twisted and what it can mean was interesting and alternate perspective. Given my background, such thoughts had not crossed my mind. Politics is not my cup of tea and that section is what I found boring. But overall a good bit on lengthier side.
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