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The Verdict: Decoding India's Elections
What are the key factors that win or lose elections in India? What does, or does not, make India's democracy tick? Is this the end of anti-incumbency? Are opinion polls and exit polls reliable? How pervasive is the 'fear factor'? Does the Indian woman's vote matter? Does the selection of candidates impact results? Are elections becoming more democratic or less democratic? Can electronic voting machines (EVMs) be fiddled with? Can Indian elections be called 'a jugaad system'?
Published on the eve of India's next general elections, The Verdict will use rigorous psephology, original research and as-yet undisclosed facts to talk about the entire span of India's entire electoral history-from the first elections in 1952, till today. Crucially, for 2019, it provides pointers to look out for, to see if the incumbent government will win or lose. Written by Prannoy Roy, renowned for his knack of demystifying electoral politics, and Dorab Sopariwala, this book will be compulsory reading for anyone interested in politics and elections in India.
Published on the eve of India's next general elections, The Verdict will use rigorous psephology, original research and as-yet undisclosed facts to talk about the entire span of India's entire electoral history-from the first elections in 1952, till today. Crucially, for 2019, it provides pointers to look out for, to see if the incumbent government will win or lose. Written by Prannoy Roy, renowned for his knack of demystifying electoral politics, and Dorab Sopariwala, this book will be compulsory reading for anyone interested in politics and elections in India.
403 pages, Kindle Edition
Published March 14, 2019
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Displaying 1 - 30 of 49 reviews
June 25, 2019
Prannoy Roy is the person who introduced me to the enchanting world of psephology – the study of elections. Being a mathematical nut of sorts who is also intensely interested in the political behaviour of the human animal, I used to follow his programmes on TV religiously, first on India’s national channel Doordarshan and then on his own private channel NDTV. I have found the coverage of elections by him and Sohrab Dopariwala to be the best, and their analysis to be impartial and erudite.
So that made this book a must-read. In this, Roy and Dopariwala analyse the elections conducted so far since independence, discuss the statistical trends, explain how the science of psephology works (or doesn’t!), and explains how we should interpret opinion polls and make our own informed predictions. It is very erudite and balanced in tone, and for a nerd like me, an absolute delight.
At the outset, the authors say:
***
The book is divided into four parts. The first part describes how elections have panned out over the years, and how India has matured as a democracy. The second and third parts discuss opinion polls in detail, and how trustworthy or untrustworthy they are. The last part explains in detail, how elections are really won and lost in our First Past The Post (FPTP) system.
My key takeaways from the book:
1. Dividing the time after the first election in into 25-year-periods, the authors have come upon a remarkable finding. The era from 1952 to 1977 was pro-incumbency, when the ruling governments were voted back to power overwhelmingly; from 1977 to 2002, this got flipped on its head and most governments were voted out; from 2002 onwards, it’s 50-50 – a government comes back to power if it can impress voters.
2. Women’s participation in elections are rising by leaps and bounds, and soon they will overtake men. However, as many as 21 million of them are disenfranchised even now, and they are pitifully represented among the elected representatives. Our governments are still rather patriarchal, but women are starting to aggressively register their votes.
3. Opinion polls are on the whole trustworthy in the sense that they always tend to get the overall winner right. However, all polls tend to underestimate the winning margin because pollsters try to play safe. (All the polls got the 2004 election wrong, however.)
4. Conducting an opinion poll is much difficult in India than in the west, due to the heterogeneity of the country. A much bigger sample size (35000 to 40000) is required to have a halfway reliable result, whereas in Europe, 1000 to 2000 will give excellent results.
5. Extracting information from the cagey Indian voter is very difficult, especially since many are afraid to reveal their mind due to fear of getting targeted by political parties. Because of this, exit polls (polls conducted on voters who have already cast their vote) are more reliable than opinion polls because people are more forthcoming, and a larger sample size can be accommodated.
6. Many a time, minorities and Dalits are underrepresented in opinion polls because they are very difficult to approach and very reluctant to divulge their opinions due to apprehensions of being targeted. Similarly, unless women field-workers are employed, it is very difficult to get rural women to open out.
7. Assembly elections, and by-polls, are good indicators of how the electorate will vote in the parliament election if not separated by a large time margin. The reverse does not hold true, however.
8. The party that is ahead when all the leads are in gets an amazing ‘Bump’ in actual seats once all the results are in. Expect the winner to do much better in the end and the loser even worse. For Lok Sabha elections, when all the 543 ‘leads’ are in but counting is still in progress, be prepared to add another forty-five seats to the leading party’s tally and subtract about the same number from the trailing parties’ total. In other words, be prepared for as much as a forty-five-seat Bump, or what could be up to a ninety-seat swing. This is due to not some magic, but the cancelling out of standard deviation among all the leads which always tend to favour the winner.
9. In India, dividing the opposition is the best way to ensure a win (much more than a swing in one’s favour), as our FPTP system allows parties with even less than 30% votes to score landslide victories as their opponents take away votes piecemeal! Favouring the big national parties initially, of late this method has started to backfire, as regional parties are using the same technique in each state against the biggies. That is the reason for the various state-wide alliances that we are seeing. Our country is slowly moving into a federal setup.
10. And oh? Those EVMs are, for all practical purposes, unhackable.
***
This summary does not do justice to this wonderful book – one has to read it oneself, savour the extensive statistical analysis and flawless conclusions presented in a dispassionate way. The only reason I deducted one star is that the authors do not discuss the impact of caste and religion on voting trends, a very important aspect in today’s polarised society.
So that made this book a must-read. In this, Roy and Dopariwala analyse the elections conducted so far since independence, discuss the statistical trends, explain how the science of psephology works (or doesn’t!), and explains how we should interpret opinion polls and make our own informed predictions. It is very erudite and balanced in tone, and for a nerd like me, an absolute delight.
At the outset, the authors say:
Democracy lies at the very core of every Indian’s DNA. It is intrinsic to our consciousness. It animates our conversations, energizes our minds and brings out the best—and, occasionally, the worst in us. The more deprived we are, the poorer we are, the more alienated we are, the more we participate and are protective of our country’s elections and democracy. Every time democracy comes under attack, the Indian voter fights back at election time. The saga of Indian elections is the story of the triumph of freedom.I can’t agree more! When many nations which came into being around the same time as India have descended into despotism or chaos, we still are holding on to our democracy. You can blame India for a lot of things, but being undemocratic isn’t one of them.
This book seeks to address the need for a detached assessment of almost seven decades of elections, their evolution, the enormity of their scale and their confounding complexity. Our purpose is to look back as well as forward and tell the fascinating story—revolving around the characteristics, the experiences and the lessons learned—of elections in the world’s largest multiparty democracy.And fascinating it is, indeed.
***
The book is divided into four parts. The first part describes how elections have panned out over the years, and how India has matured as a democracy. The second and third parts discuss opinion polls in detail, and how trustworthy or untrustworthy they are. The last part explains in detail, how elections are really won and lost in our First Past The Post (FPTP) system.
My key takeaways from the book:
1. Dividing the time after the first election in into 25-year-periods, the authors have come upon a remarkable finding. The era from 1952 to 1977 was pro-incumbency, when the ruling governments were voted back to power overwhelmingly; from 1977 to 2002, this got flipped on its head and most governments were voted out; from 2002 onwards, it’s 50-50 – a government comes back to power if it can impress voters.
2. Women’s participation in elections are rising by leaps and bounds, and soon they will overtake men. However, as many as 21 million of them are disenfranchised even now, and they are pitifully represented among the elected representatives. Our governments are still rather patriarchal, but women are starting to aggressively register their votes.
3. Opinion polls are on the whole trustworthy in the sense that they always tend to get the overall winner right. However, all polls tend to underestimate the winning margin because pollsters try to play safe. (All the polls got the 2004 election wrong, however.)
4. Conducting an opinion poll is much difficult in India than in the west, due to the heterogeneity of the country. A much bigger sample size (35000 to 40000) is required to have a halfway reliable result, whereas in Europe, 1000 to 2000 will give excellent results.
5. Extracting information from the cagey Indian voter is very difficult, especially since many are afraid to reveal their mind due to fear of getting targeted by political parties. Because of this, exit polls (polls conducted on voters who have already cast their vote) are more reliable than opinion polls because people are more forthcoming, and a larger sample size can be accommodated.
6. Many a time, minorities and Dalits are underrepresented in opinion polls because they are very difficult to approach and very reluctant to divulge their opinions due to apprehensions of being targeted. Similarly, unless women field-workers are employed, it is very difficult to get rural women to open out.
7. Assembly elections, and by-polls, are good indicators of how the electorate will vote in the parliament election if not separated by a large time margin. The reverse does not hold true, however.
8. The party that is ahead when all the leads are in gets an amazing ‘Bump’ in actual seats once all the results are in. Expect the winner to do much better in the end and the loser even worse. For Lok Sabha elections, when all the 543 ‘leads’ are in but counting is still in progress, be prepared to add another forty-five seats to the leading party’s tally and subtract about the same number from the trailing parties’ total. In other words, be prepared for as much as a forty-five-seat Bump, or what could be up to a ninety-seat swing. This is due to not some magic, but the cancelling out of standard deviation among all the leads which always tend to favour the winner.
9. In India, dividing the opposition is the best way to ensure a win (much more than a swing in one’s favour), as our FPTP system allows parties with even less than 30% votes to score landslide victories as their opponents take away votes piecemeal! Favouring the big national parties initially, of late this method has started to backfire, as regional parties are using the same technique in each state against the biggies. That is the reason for the various state-wide alliances that we are seeing. Our country is slowly moving into a federal setup.
10. And oh? Those EVMs are, for all practical purposes, unhackable.
***
This summary does not do justice to this wonderful book – one has to read it oneself, savour the extensive statistical analysis and flawless conclusions presented in a dispassionate way. The only reason I deducted one star is that the authors do not discuss the impact of caste and religion on voting trends, a very important aspect in today’s polarised society.
The Verdict is an open-ended story. There was a beginning but there will be no end. Indian elections will continue to evolve, the electorate will become more sophisticated, more assertive, more demanding, more aware of the power of the vote. But of two mutually reinforcing facts there is no doubt: the faith of the Indian voter in democracy and the durability that Indian democracy derives from the Indian voter. It may be once in five years that the vote is exercised at the national, state or local level, but it is what keeps the politician and political parties within the limits set by the letter and spirit of our democratic Constitution. It is not the VIP, not the individuals who temporarily occupy high office, not the careerists who man the administration, not the eloquent or high-profile leaders who dominate the media today and perhaps the history books tomorrow, but the anonymous voter from the four corners of our country who is the true guardian of our democratic state.Indeed. Long live democracy.
November 10, 2019
More than movies, more than cricket, what entertains most, we Indians, is - Elections. I am not sure whether most of us understand the seriousness of our democratic rights, whether we comprehend the power the ballot gives us, but we love our elections - no matter what strata of the society we belong to. From few months before to the final day of counting, we track of every opinion poll, exit poll and final result, like our life depend on us. Now, we even track assembly and sometimes municipal elections of states which most of us would fail to locate in a map, let alone visit there. Multiple factors responsible for such phenomena - 100s of free 24X7 cable news channels, mobile revolution that hands a smart phone to people who can't even afford a toilet at their backyard, and political parties suddenly discovering how quickly they can spread their propaganda through social media. With an election happening some place or the other in our country of 1.3Bn people, we are in perennial election mode.
And who can give us better perspective than the foremost journalist of India who pioneered the ideas of opinion polls/exit polls in India - Mr Prannoy Roy? So, I had expected to learn more about Indian electoral politics, understand the efficacy of different pre-polls and the future of Indian elections. Though, Mr. Roy discusses all these in different sections of this book with his usual style of a mild mannered sophisticated elite, however, I am not sure, I learnt a lot new than what I already know, of course, now with much more data to back those understandings.
Amidst the cacophony of tv debates, getting irritated by several shows, any sane person finally settles for NDTV, the channel led by Mr Roy, despite it being the most boring and seemingly biased against the right-wing ideologies. And like the insipid presentation in TV, this book is dull, filled with lots of tables and statistics, and probably, targeted towards only the journalists who want to make psephology as one of the preferred domain.
And who can give us better perspective than the foremost journalist of India who pioneered the ideas of opinion polls/exit polls in India - Mr Prannoy Roy? So, I had expected to learn more about Indian electoral politics, understand the efficacy of different pre-polls and the future of Indian elections. Though, Mr. Roy discusses all these in different sections of this book with his usual style of a mild mannered sophisticated elite, however, I am not sure, I learnt a lot new than what I already know, of course, now with much more data to back those understandings.
Amidst the cacophony of tv debates, getting irritated by several shows, any sane person finally settles for NDTV, the channel led by Mr Roy, despite it being the most boring and seemingly biased against the right-wing ideologies. And like the insipid presentation in TV, this book is dull, filled with lots of tables and statistics, and probably, targeted towards only the journalists who want to make psephology as one of the preferred domain.
May 20, 2019
Fairly average honestly, expected so much more from Prannoy Roy. Not only is most of the book too technical, it's the sort of worst form of statistical summary without a corresponding connect with real events or people - making it a dry and uninteresting read. I assume it needed to be put out before the elections, but it seemed unfinished and all over the place.
There's far too much on polls, it really is a book on election polling and everything is tediously summarised in word and then tabular form. Other than the occasional interesting insight, one has to wade through. It gets a bit better towards the end, but maybe that's because I was just relieved it was ending.
There's far too much on polls, it really is a book on election polling and everything is tediously summarised in word and then tabular form. Other than the occasional interesting insight, one has to wade through. It gets a bit better towards the end, but maybe that's because I was just relieved it was ending.
April 21, 2019
“The anonymous voter from the four corners of our country who is the true guardian of our democratic state.”
May 27, 2019
The tome is a labour of love by two passionate election enthusiasts. The authors combine anecdotes with number-crunching to provide an analytical history of all Indian elections since 1947. Ideas like "Uniform swing"and "Index of opposition unity" show how psephology is no crystal-ball gazing but science grounded in statistics. The authors wax eloquent about different types of opinion polls (phone,internet,whatnot) but do not answer the crucial question : "Why opinion polls? What is the point of it all?". A book that secures a landslide win with zero propaganda and all passion.
October 23, 2019
Using the past to predict the future is wonderful and could work as well but the case The Verdict builds in this context is far removed from the emotional heart of the book—democracy being at the core of every Indian’s DNA.
The book claims that every time democracy comes under attack, the Indian voter fights back at election time. But one gets the sense that the book doesn’t really believe in this. It appears to be focused on the science of crunching numbers and therefore, the emotional aspect of the adult franchise doesn’t seem to concern the authors. So, the election malpractice by Indira Gandhi, which led to her dismissal from the Lok Sabha and as a result she would have had to relinquish the Prime Minister’s office had she not imposed the Emergency, is not discussed. Instead, this period is called ‘The Pro-Incumbency Era’ and the years between 1977-2002 are called the ‘The Anti-Incumbency Era’ and even though it covers “the birth and growth of the angry voter” it doesn’t delve deep into the reason of the anger.
The book claims that every time democracy comes under attack, the Indian voter fights back at election time. But one gets the sense that the book doesn’t really believe in this. It appears to be focused on the science of crunching numbers and therefore, the emotional aspect of the adult franchise doesn’t seem to concern the authors. So, the election malpractice by Indira Gandhi, which led to her dismissal from the Lok Sabha and as a result she would have had to relinquish the Prime Minister’s office had she not imposed the Emergency, is not discussed. Instead, this period is called ‘The Pro-Incumbency Era’ and the years between 1977-2002 are called the ‘The Anti-Incumbency Era’ and even though it covers “the birth and growth of the angry voter” it doesn’t delve deep into the reason of the anger.
March 31, 2019
Best read for Indian Election Festival of 2019
Prannoy Roy has been a source of Political Education for Indians watching election for decades now. Indian elections are a festival - it is the biggest such exercise anywhere in the world with 900M eligible voters. This is a country with a multitude of the diversity of castes, languages, religions, parties & issues - all of it making Indian elections complex yet fascinating subject.
The book is condensed wisdom of evolution of Indian elections, psephology along with sociology and psychology of Indian electorate. Much of the book tells you exactly what you would expect from a book on elections - evolving electorate and the art of charisma of candidates to the math of alliances and opposition unity.
But what made me love the book were issues which one knows but doesn't ponder overmuch. What I learnt was - all votes are no longer equal in their power as the population of constituencies have started to differ a lot. Similarly, migrants & dalits for whom elections are the most powerful tools to effect a change, face challenges while casting their votes. Missing women voters is another issue. Love the way these issues are explained and discussed.
The basic question also is - is first past the post system fair? Are not small political parties getting pushed to sidelines in our democracy? This book tries to look at these issues but falls somewhat short at exploring alternatives and solutions.
This book is a must read for the current Indian Election Season.
Prannoy Roy has been a source of Political Education for Indians watching election for decades now. Indian elections are a festival - it is the biggest such exercise anywhere in the world with 900M eligible voters. This is a country with a multitude of the diversity of castes, languages, religions, parties & issues - all of it making Indian elections complex yet fascinating subject.
The book is condensed wisdom of evolution of Indian elections, psephology along with sociology and psychology of Indian electorate. Much of the book tells you exactly what you would expect from a book on elections - evolving electorate and the art of charisma of candidates to the math of alliances and opposition unity.
But what made me love the book were issues which one knows but doesn't ponder overmuch. What I learnt was - all votes are no longer equal in their power as the population of constituencies have started to differ a lot. Similarly, migrants & dalits for whom elections are the most powerful tools to effect a change, face challenges while casting their votes. Missing women voters is another issue. Love the way these issues are explained and discussed.
The basic question also is - is first past the post system fair? Are not small political parties getting pushed to sidelines in our democracy? This book tries to look at these issues but falls somewhat short at exploring alternatives and solutions.
This book is a must read for the current Indian Election Season.
March 28, 2019
This book is a seminal contribution to the empirical analysis of Indian elections. Using data and statistics, tell writers present surprising new insights and trends about the changes in Indian electoral democracy. The many inferences that they draw present an illuminating picture of elections in India at the federal and state level.
July 30, 2019
A boring collection of statistics on elections in India. The book, against its claims, is less about the 'verdict of the voter' and more about the history of psephology in India. On the whole, the book doesn't do justice to a topic as exciting & invigorating as Indian elections.
July 21, 2019
The Doordarshan(DD) old glory has faded to almost nothing. It looks like a relics of the past. The drop in viewership came with the advent of cable TV, which challenged DD monopoly over television broadcasting in India. When other private channels are continuously transforming and revamping itself, DD has chosen to look backward. During the good times. DD was the only channel people watched. The newsreaders in those days were household names. The likes of Salma Sultan, Githanjali Iyer, Rini Khanna, Shammi Narang, Minu Talwar, Sunit Tandon, Ved Prakash and Kaveri Mukherjee ruled the heart of billions of Indians with their charm, presentation and distinctive style. Please pardon me if I have skipped some names. Despite these impressive and charismatic newsreaders, DD news was always plagued by content crisis. The quality of the news was bland and rudimentary. It’s then renowned journalist and media person Prannoy Roy came into the scene and changed the look, feel, content and style of the news with professional deftness. His weekly programme– “The World this week” was an instant hit with the viewers. The news was qualitative and informative, and gave viewers a window to look beyond DD news. The seed for private news channel was sown. You must be wondering what this topic has to do with this book. I have been witness to this revolutionary change in news reading. Prannoy Roy is one of the co-author of this book. His merit and proven efficiency coupled with an interesting subject had pulled me towards this book.
The word- “Democracy” needs no definition. Each country interprets it differently. Due to different geo-political scenarios across the world, there are different forms and spectrum of democratic governments. There are eight types of democracies and India falls under Representative democracy. The idle form of democracy is Direct democracy where citizens get to vote for policies directly without any intermediate representatives or houses of parliament. India do not figure among top ten nations in the list of strongest democracies. Norway, Iceland and Sweden are top nations. However, India has the largest democracy in the world. Democracy is hardwired and lies at the core of our DNA. It’s in our mind, conversations and consciousness. Still the spirit has not desiccated. You can sense effervescence and animation in discussion and debate on elections. Every election provides voters with opportunity to deliver verdicts that is apt for that period. If appointed representative had done nothing substantial in his constituency then his honeymoon is ephemeral. Every election provides deprived and alienated voters to right the wrongs and drive country further along road of public interest. Who is at the core of our democracy? It’s not much publicised politicians but it’s voters. For a change, we have a book here that tells the lesser-known story of the Indian voters. It assesses evolution, scale and complexity of seven decades of election. It tells the interesting story of lesson learned, characteristics and experiences of the world largest multiparty democracy. The main objective of this book is to generate an interest in voter’s behaviour and stimulate more research in this area.
The first twenty-five years after Indian’s first election is called period of optimism. This is the time period from 1952 to 1977. This is characterized by complacent continuity, which is also known as pro-incumbency period. The ruling party could afford to snuggle as during this period, both at Centre and State, they were voted to power 80% of the times. Why was the success rate so high? It’s because of blind faith, high level of trust and confidence in politicians and ruling government. The elections were in nascent stage. The electorate were inexperienced. There was low level of literacy. Moreover, people associated Congress with Indian freedom struggle. Congress strongmen dominated in big States. Govind Ballabh Pant(UP), Ravi Shankar Shukla(MP), Srikrishna Sinha(Bihar), B.C. Roy(WB) and Moraji Desai (Bombay) are some of the prominent names. Opposition parties were small and divided and leaders pitted against them lack the required stature. However, threatened by massive protest movement lead by revered J.P. Narayan, Indira Gandhi declared an Emergency. This also marked the burial of Congress honeymoon period. There was a deep sense of antipathy against her and the party. What was the retributory effect? She was defeated and her party was routed. The pro-incumbency period was vanished and the nation introduced angry voters. The next twenty-five years from 1977 to 2002 is called as anti-incumbency period. The frequency with which ruling party was voted back dropped drastically from 80% to 29%. In other words, during this period the governments were thrown out in 70% of the times. Indians voters were now awake and they also realized a powerful weapon, which can be used to teach a lesson to inefficient politicians. Towards the end of this period, the confronted politicians finally realized that their continuity depends on their work towards improvement of their constituency. Politicians and governments that had done good work are retained. Otherwise they are thrown out. This is called fifty-fifty phase where voters are much wiser and can differentiates between governments that delivered and that did not. The voters can see through showmanship. So a politician has to be a doer instead of simply being a flamboyant orator. Some of the examples of politicians who lacked oratory skills but were retained more than three times were Naveen Patnaik(Odisha), Shivraj Chauhan(MP), Raman Singh(Chhattisgarh), Sheila Dikshit(Delhi) and Manik Sarkar(Tripura).
During the anti-incumbency period, people were exasperated with the ruling government. The voters had turned angry. However, during the third phase, angry voters had given way to wise voters. The winning percentage has become 50%. How the voters turned wise? It’s because their awareness level increased and this has to do with revolutionary developments in Indian media. More than 500 channels spurred up which has given greater information flow to voters. There is surge in mobile phone users. More than 60% of these mobile phone users have smartphones. This ensure a much wider reach and penetration. In the 1990’s the options were limited. There were Doordarshan and All India radio but primary means by which news spread was word-of-mouth. Now a day, Doordarshan is seldom considered as a reliable and significant source of news. Just ask yourself? When you had last watched Doordarshan? In the new millennium, the major source of news are private television networks. So, voters are better informed about politics and current affairs. Politicians too have awakened to the changing trend. From a complete novice, they have become media-savvy. Every political parties ensures that the most efficient member, who are total masters of the sound bite represent them on television debates. Some of the news channels are directly or indirectly owned by political parties. Key questions that immediately strikes our mind are whether contents of these news channel tampered to suit a political party? Are voters greatly influenced by the news contents? Do these delude voter’s mind? The voter’s access these channels merely to gain information. They are not influenced. The wisdom of voters should not be underestimated. Had it been the case, DMK in Tamil Nadu would emerge victorious in every election. They control most widely viewed TV channels and powerful distributed cable network. Even Akali Dal in Punjab has monopoly over most channels but it’s Congress who has got better of them in both last Assembly and Lok Sabha elections. Though control is perceived as an advantage but it’s not enough to win an election.
There was a time when political parties used underhand methods to win elections. This was rampant in 70’s and 80’s. There was a big question mark on fairness and authenticity of Indian elections. Electronic voting machine(EVM) was developed and introduced. This made life difficult for booth capturers to stuff votes into the ballot box. Its introduction has been a game changer as it has drastically reduced fraudulent activities. The EVM is unique and an ideal device for Indian voting conditions. It’s not connected to Internal or any other cloud network. Neither it has Wi-Fi or Bluetooth capabilities. So it’s not exposed to hacking. The EVM seal is difficult to break and it can be done only by Election commission official. This keeps EVM secured. If the seal is broken, then Election commission announce a re-polling in relevant booth. EVM now has second machine attached to it, which is a printer. It’ known as Voter Verified Paper Audit Trail(VVPAT). This enables voters to get a confirmation regarding correct recording of their vote. The trends across the world throws some interesting numbers. While South America and Asian countries have shown interest in EVM but some of the European and North American countries are shying away from it. Serious reservations have been raised about its reliability, safety and accuracy. Apart from India, other countries who have implemented it includes Brazil, Philippines, Egypt, Belgium, Nepal, Maldives, UAE and Jordan. Countries like Nepal, Maldives and Namibia are using India manufactured EVM. India has also provided technical support to Jordan, Maldives, Nepal and Namibia. This is an era of India’s EVM and it looks promising. Let’s see what future holds for it. Irrespective of which mode is used for conducting polls, democracy should flourish and win in all situation.
Let’s focus on topic that was given maximum coverage in this book. It’s opinion and exit poll. India has developed different kind of polls that are unique to India. Street corner opinion poll: field worker questions voters at the street. House-to-house opinion poll: Field workers go from house to house. Polling booth exit polls: voters coming out after voting from polling booth are questioned. Post poll: After voting, field workers visit house to house. Insta poll: field workers send the answers using telecom network. Social media: Sites ask people to vote for their preference. Each of these polls have their own merits and demerits. The average response time from voters vary from State to State. While the average time per questionnaire in most States is twenty minutes, it takes around one hour in politically aware states like Kerala and West Bengal. In Bihar, people are much more relaxed. In Punjab, hospitality is the norm. Though voters have niggling thoughts when approached but when once the comfort level creeps in, they are much more open about their viewpoints. Many call opinion polls as forecasting. Those who conduct these polls would rather like to define it as measure of public opinion at a specific point of time. There can be changes in public sentiments between a poll and subsequent elections. The first opinion poll was carried out by Indian Institute of Public Opinion (IIPO) in 1957, headed by Eric P.W. da Costa; known as Father of opinion polling in India. The Centre for the Study of Developing Societies(CSDS) carried out their first pre-election opinion poll in 1980 elections, with fieldwork done by IIPO. Since then CSDS has been conducting number of opinion polls. They have mastered the art and their methods are very complex. They still remain the finest organizations to conduct nationwide survey. These opinion polls came more into limelight and prominence in last four decades. Prior to that India was virtually a one-party state with Congress at the helm. There was little incentive to conduct such a poll as it was considered pointless. Moreover, the reach of broadcast media was also limited. So publication houses were sceptical about getting much mileage. There are instances when political parties have changed their strategies based on the opinion polls. One such example was Ramakrishna Hegde, ex chief Minister of Karnataka, who turned his possible defeat into victory by taking opinion polls serious and acting accordingly.
You must be already aware of difference between opinion and exit poll. In case you are not, let me differentiate it for you. Opinions polls are conducted few days, weeks or months before the actual election. Exit polls are carried out on a voting day when voters have cast their vote. If you have been following these polls in every previous election, then you might have noticed that exit polls are much more accurate compared to opinion polls. One of the difficult variables to measure during these poll is expected turnout. Unlike opinion polls, exit poll do not have to predict it. Exit poll reflects the actual voters who have just come out from the polling booth. There are swing voters who frequently change their mind even on voting day. The unpredictability of such swing votes are recorded correctly during exit polls. The margin of error in exit poll is much lesser as it’s sample size is large. There is also greater accessibility to voters as all turnout at the same selected place. The respondents are much more reluctant to reveal whom they are going to vote but are forthcoming after they have votes. Exit polls requires less travelling and hence it’s much cheaper too. These are the upsides which makes exit polls extremely reliable and preferable. As per the statistics, exit poll their prediction 84% of the time right while it’s 71% for opinion poll.
The opinions poll sometimes have an impact on party workers and cadres. Polls that shows a party losing has had a demoralizing effect on party workers. Conversely, polls that shown the party winning motives party workers. As mentioned before, elections now a days are not won by flamboyance alone. Elected representative can expect to retain a seat only by piggybacking on development. The voter’s awareness level has increased tremendously. They are not so docile. The development activity should manifest. It should provide tangible results. In recent elections, voters are giving Independent candidates a raw deal. Let’s face it, the system is unfair to them and voters are also increasingly ignoring them. Another noticeable trend is the impact of opposition unity. So winning an election is not only about popular votes but also dividing the opposition votes. So, we can expect more and more parties to form some alliances despite historical, political and ideological differences. Recent example being alliance between SP and BSP. Whatever be the inducement, strategy or the result. The fact remains that the durability of Indian democracy is derived from the voters. Every elections keeps the politicians on tenterhook. The voters are the true guardian of Indian democracy. The book provides a greater understanding of our electoral system and examines the variables that decides on the verdict of the Indian voters. It highlights key signals, indicator and trends to look out for while tracking elections. The subject stands out due to novelty factor. The research done is hugely impressive. The book provides clear insights with fascinating findings. However, there is multitude of statistical data in tabular form, which is going to hamper your reading speed. Still, the book is readable and highly recommended.
The word- “Democracy” needs no definition. Each country interprets it differently. Due to different geo-political scenarios across the world, there are different forms and spectrum of democratic governments. There are eight types of democracies and India falls under Representative democracy. The idle form of democracy is Direct democracy where citizens get to vote for policies directly without any intermediate representatives or houses of parliament. India do not figure among top ten nations in the list of strongest democracies. Norway, Iceland and Sweden are top nations. However, India has the largest democracy in the world. Democracy is hardwired and lies at the core of our DNA. It’s in our mind, conversations and consciousness. Still the spirit has not desiccated. You can sense effervescence and animation in discussion and debate on elections. Every election provides voters with opportunity to deliver verdicts that is apt for that period. If appointed representative had done nothing substantial in his constituency then his honeymoon is ephemeral. Every election provides deprived and alienated voters to right the wrongs and drive country further along road of public interest. Who is at the core of our democracy? It’s not much publicised politicians but it’s voters. For a change, we have a book here that tells the lesser-known story of the Indian voters. It assesses evolution, scale and complexity of seven decades of election. It tells the interesting story of lesson learned, characteristics and experiences of the world largest multiparty democracy. The main objective of this book is to generate an interest in voter’s behaviour and stimulate more research in this area.
The first twenty-five years after Indian’s first election is called period of optimism. This is the time period from 1952 to 1977. This is characterized by complacent continuity, which is also known as pro-incumbency period. The ruling party could afford to snuggle as during this period, both at Centre and State, they were voted to power 80% of the times. Why was the success rate so high? It’s because of blind faith, high level of trust and confidence in politicians and ruling government. The elections were in nascent stage. The electorate were inexperienced. There was low level of literacy. Moreover, people associated Congress with Indian freedom struggle. Congress strongmen dominated in big States. Govind Ballabh Pant(UP), Ravi Shankar Shukla(MP), Srikrishna Sinha(Bihar), B.C. Roy(WB) and Moraji Desai (Bombay) are some of the prominent names. Opposition parties were small and divided and leaders pitted against them lack the required stature. However, threatened by massive protest movement lead by revered J.P. Narayan, Indira Gandhi declared an Emergency. This also marked the burial of Congress honeymoon period. There was a deep sense of antipathy against her and the party. What was the retributory effect? She was defeated and her party was routed. The pro-incumbency period was vanished and the nation introduced angry voters. The next twenty-five years from 1977 to 2002 is called as anti-incumbency period. The frequency with which ruling party was voted back dropped drastically from 80% to 29%. In other words, during this period the governments were thrown out in 70% of the times. Indians voters were now awake and they also realized a powerful weapon, which can be used to teach a lesson to inefficient politicians. Towards the end of this period, the confronted politicians finally realized that their continuity depends on their work towards improvement of their constituency. Politicians and governments that had done good work are retained. Otherwise they are thrown out. This is called fifty-fifty phase where voters are much wiser and can differentiates between governments that delivered and that did not. The voters can see through showmanship. So a politician has to be a doer instead of simply being a flamboyant orator. Some of the examples of politicians who lacked oratory skills but were retained more than three times were Naveen Patnaik(Odisha), Shivraj Chauhan(MP), Raman Singh(Chhattisgarh), Sheila Dikshit(Delhi) and Manik Sarkar(Tripura).
During the anti-incumbency period, people were exasperated with the ruling government. The voters had turned angry. However, during the third phase, angry voters had given way to wise voters. The winning percentage has become 50%. How the voters turned wise? It’s because their awareness level increased and this has to do with revolutionary developments in Indian media. More than 500 channels spurred up which has given greater information flow to voters. There is surge in mobile phone users. More than 60% of these mobile phone users have smartphones. This ensure a much wider reach and penetration. In the 1990’s the options were limited. There were Doordarshan and All India radio but primary means by which news spread was word-of-mouth. Now a day, Doordarshan is seldom considered as a reliable and significant source of news. Just ask yourself? When you had last watched Doordarshan? In the new millennium, the major source of news are private television networks. So, voters are better informed about politics and current affairs. Politicians too have awakened to the changing trend. From a complete novice, they have become media-savvy. Every political parties ensures that the most efficient member, who are total masters of the sound bite represent them on television debates. Some of the news channels are directly or indirectly owned by political parties. Key questions that immediately strikes our mind are whether contents of these news channel tampered to suit a political party? Are voters greatly influenced by the news contents? Do these delude voter’s mind? The voter’s access these channels merely to gain information. They are not influenced. The wisdom of voters should not be underestimated. Had it been the case, DMK in Tamil Nadu would emerge victorious in every election. They control most widely viewed TV channels and powerful distributed cable network. Even Akali Dal in Punjab has monopoly over most channels but it’s Congress who has got better of them in both last Assembly and Lok Sabha elections. Though control is perceived as an advantage but it’s not enough to win an election.
There was a time when political parties used underhand methods to win elections. This was rampant in 70’s and 80’s. There was a big question mark on fairness and authenticity of Indian elections. Electronic voting machine(EVM) was developed and introduced. This made life difficult for booth capturers to stuff votes into the ballot box. Its introduction has been a game changer as it has drastically reduced fraudulent activities. The EVM is unique and an ideal device for Indian voting conditions. It’s not connected to Internal or any other cloud network. Neither it has Wi-Fi or Bluetooth capabilities. So it’s not exposed to hacking. The EVM seal is difficult to break and it can be done only by Election commission official. This keeps EVM secured. If the seal is broken, then Election commission announce a re-polling in relevant booth. EVM now has second machine attached to it, which is a printer. It’ known as Voter Verified Paper Audit Trail(VVPAT). This enables voters to get a confirmation regarding correct recording of their vote. The trends across the world throws some interesting numbers. While South America and Asian countries have shown interest in EVM but some of the European and North American countries are shying away from it. Serious reservations have been raised about its reliability, safety and accuracy. Apart from India, other countries who have implemented it includes Brazil, Philippines, Egypt, Belgium, Nepal, Maldives, UAE and Jordan. Countries like Nepal, Maldives and Namibia are using India manufactured EVM. India has also provided technical support to Jordan, Maldives, Nepal and Namibia. This is an era of India’s EVM and it looks promising. Let’s see what future holds for it. Irrespective of which mode is used for conducting polls, democracy should flourish and win in all situation.
Let’s focus on topic that was given maximum coverage in this book. It’s opinion and exit poll. India has developed different kind of polls that are unique to India. Street corner opinion poll: field worker questions voters at the street. House-to-house opinion poll: Field workers go from house to house. Polling booth exit polls: voters coming out after voting from polling booth are questioned. Post poll: After voting, field workers visit house to house. Insta poll: field workers send the answers using telecom network. Social media: Sites ask people to vote for their preference. Each of these polls have their own merits and demerits. The average response time from voters vary from State to State. While the average time per questionnaire in most States is twenty minutes, it takes around one hour in politically aware states like Kerala and West Bengal. In Bihar, people are much more relaxed. In Punjab, hospitality is the norm. Though voters have niggling thoughts when approached but when once the comfort level creeps in, they are much more open about their viewpoints. Many call opinion polls as forecasting. Those who conduct these polls would rather like to define it as measure of public opinion at a specific point of time. There can be changes in public sentiments between a poll and subsequent elections. The first opinion poll was carried out by Indian Institute of Public Opinion (IIPO) in 1957, headed by Eric P.W. da Costa; known as Father of opinion polling in India. The Centre for the Study of Developing Societies(CSDS) carried out their first pre-election opinion poll in 1980 elections, with fieldwork done by IIPO. Since then CSDS has been conducting number of opinion polls. They have mastered the art and their methods are very complex. They still remain the finest organizations to conduct nationwide survey. These opinion polls came more into limelight and prominence in last four decades. Prior to that India was virtually a one-party state with Congress at the helm. There was little incentive to conduct such a poll as it was considered pointless. Moreover, the reach of broadcast media was also limited. So publication houses were sceptical about getting much mileage. There are instances when political parties have changed their strategies based on the opinion polls. One such example was Ramakrishna Hegde, ex chief Minister of Karnataka, who turned his possible defeat into victory by taking opinion polls serious and acting accordingly.
You must be already aware of difference between opinion and exit poll. In case you are not, let me differentiate it for you. Opinions polls are conducted few days, weeks or months before the actual election. Exit polls are carried out on a voting day when voters have cast their vote. If you have been following these polls in every previous election, then you might have noticed that exit polls are much more accurate compared to opinion polls. One of the difficult variables to measure during these poll is expected turnout. Unlike opinion polls, exit poll do not have to predict it. Exit poll reflects the actual voters who have just come out from the polling booth. There are swing voters who frequently change their mind even on voting day. The unpredictability of such swing votes are recorded correctly during exit polls. The margin of error in exit poll is much lesser as it’s sample size is large. There is also greater accessibility to voters as all turnout at the same selected place. The respondents are much more reluctant to reveal whom they are going to vote but are forthcoming after they have votes. Exit polls requires less travelling and hence it’s much cheaper too. These are the upsides which makes exit polls extremely reliable and preferable. As per the statistics, exit poll their prediction 84% of the time right while it’s 71% for opinion poll.
The opinions poll sometimes have an impact on party workers and cadres. Polls that shows a party losing has had a demoralizing effect on party workers. Conversely, polls that shown the party winning motives party workers. As mentioned before, elections now a days are not won by flamboyance alone. Elected representative can expect to retain a seat only by piggybacking on development. The voter’s awareness level has increased tremendously. They are not so docile. The development activity should manifest. It should provide tangible results. In recent elections, voters are giving Independent candidates a raw deal. Let’s face it, the system is unfair to them and voters are also increasingly ignoring them. Another noticeable trend is the impact of opposition unity. So winning an election is not only about popular votes but also dividing the opposition votes. So, we can expect more and more parties to form some alliances despite historical, political and ideological differences. Recent example being alliance between SP and BSP. Whatever be the inducement, strategy or the result. The fact remains that the durability of Indian democracy is derived from the voters. Every elections keeps the politicians on tenterhook. The voters are the true guardian of Indian democracy. The book provides a greater understanding of our electoral system and examines the variables that decides on the verdict of the Indian voters. It highlights key signals, indicator and trends to look out for while tracking elections. The subject stands out due to novelty factor. The research done is hugely impressive. The book provides clear insights with fascinating findings. However, there is multitude of statistical data in tabular form, which is going to hamper your reading speed. Still, the book is readable and highly recommended.
April 7, 2019
Statisticians’ delight. Simplified analysis and meaningful insights. Must read for every voter.
July 19, 2021
Pure garbage. An academic book on how to conduct polls. Nothing there to decode India's election.
July 16, 2019
This book looks at the twists and turns of Indian elections over the past seven decades. The authors have provided immense data and analysis including formulas and math for the reader understand what Indian elections are all about.
🍃
The book explains the Indian elections, the highly heterogeneous (national and state elections) unlike the elections of the western democratic countries in three phases: 1952-1977 as pro-incumbency, 1977-2002 as the anti-incumbency era and finally 2002-2019 as the age of the wise voter whose idea of the government is to perform or perish (and rightly so).
🍃
The biggest part of the book explains how to make your forecasts. This is an elaborate section explaining polls and the work pollsters do. Along-with predictors it also points out numerous insights which are otherwise unknown!
🍃
To conclude, I would say, like the author, “The Verdict is an open-ended story. There was a beginning but there will be no end. Indian elections will continue to evolve, the electorate will become more sophisticated, more assertive, more demanding, more aware of the power of the vote.” Read this book for its insights and the knowledge that is definitely going to improve your understanding of the elections of the largest Democracy in the world!
🍃
PS: I had to be patient with the analysis and the large amounts of data given in the book, but it seems all worthwhile now as the elections shall be declared in less than 24 hours from now.
🍃
The book explains the Indian elections, the highly heterogeneous (national and state elections) unlike the elections of the western democratic countries in three phases: 1952-1977 as pro-incumbency, 1977-2002 as the anti-incumbency era and finally 2002-2019 as the age of the wise voter whose idea of the government is to perform or perish (and rightly so).
🍃
The biggest part of the book explains how to make your forecasts. This is an elaborate section explaining polls and the work pollsters do. Along-with predictors it also points out numerous insights which are otherwise unknown!
🍃
To conclude, I would say, like the author, “The Verdict is an open-ended story. There was a beginning but there will be no end. Indian elections will continue to evolve, the electorate will become more sophisticated, more assertive, more demanding, more aware of the power of the vote.” Read this book for its insights and the knowledge that is definitely going to improve your understanding of the elections of the largest Democracy in the world!
🍃
PS: I had to be patient with the analysis and the large amounts of data given in the book, but it seems all worthwhile now as the elections shall be declared in less than 24 hours from now.
May 21, 2019
Brexit, Trump, the Australian elections - why on earth would anybody bother about political polling, much less read a book about it? And a book about polling for Indian elections, no less! But if you really are a nerd for numbers and statistics and polling techniques, then this is a really illuminating read. I would rate polling in India as possibly the most difficult task for anybody. Roy and Sopariwala estimate that to get a representative sample for India, you need between 30,000 and 40,000 respondents. That is a staggering number (not to mention the time and cost of compiling these surveys).
What I most liked about the book was its ability to illuminate the Indian political landscape through the business of polling as well as the cultural peculiarities of the Indian respondent - for example, how people are reticent to speak to a pollster alone in a room, but happy to hold forth if they're at home surrounded by friends or family. I also liked that Roy and Sopariwala are quite up front about the challenges still for polling and the things they absolutely know and the things they are not sure of. It is a timely book for the 2019 Indian elections, but I do think it has a life well beyond that.
October 29, 2021
This book will give the readers a faint idea about how to predict an election result. The calculations are purely mathematical and psychological.
The book is a wonderful read for all those election enthusiasts like me .
The book is a wonderful read for all those election enthusiasts like me .
January 2, 2025
A fascinating deep dive into the complexities of Indian democracy. As someone who’s always been intrigued by how elections shape our nation, this book felt like a masterclass in understanding voter behavior, election trends, and the evolving political landscape.
What I loved most was how it broke down decades of data into clear, digestible insights without ever feeling overwhelming. The anecdotes and historical context added a richness that kept me hooked. It’s not just a book for political buffs—it’s for anyone who wants to understand the pulse of India.
A compelling, thought-provoking read that left me with a deeper appreciation for our democracy. Highly recommended!
Rating: 🌟🌟🌟🌟🌟
What I loved most was how it broke down decades of data into clear, digestible insights without ever feeling overwhelming. The anecdotes and historical context added a richness that kept me hooked. It’s not just a book for political buffs—it’s for anyone who wants to understand the pulse of India.
A compelling, thought-provoking read that left me with a deeper appreciation for our democracy. Highly recommended!
Rating: 🌟🌟🌟🌟🌟
January 12, 2025
The Verdict: Decoding India’s Elections is a fascinating exploration of the complexities of Indian democracy. The book expertly unpacks how election outcomes are deeply interconnected and shaped by myriad factors, offering insights into the intricate web of voting patterns across the nation. It challenges the conventional notions of victory and defeat, showing how a win doesn’t always signify a true mandate, and a loss doesn’t necessarily mean irrelevance. Above all, it highlights the incredible power of every citizen in shaping the nation’s future. A must-read for anyone who wishes to understand the pulse of Indian elections and the vibrant democracy it represents.
May 17, 2019
Good !
This is a book that takes you on a journey of Indian democratic polity. Pcephological analysis is the core of this book.
If you are used to interpret data, cross-tables, you would love the fabulous writing of the book.
If you are largely not comfortable with the tables and data, you would end up being in admiration of many of the tables as the interpretation would open up to the details of the story of the behavior of Indian voters.
It is a treat to read this book. Thank you for this beautiful work.
This is a book that takes you on a journey of Indian democratic polity. Pcephological analysis is the core of this book.
If you are used to interpret data, cross-tables, you would love the fabulous writing of the book.
If you are largely not comfortable with the tables and data, you would end up being in admiration of many of the tables as the interpretation would open up to the details of the story of the behavior of Indian voters.
It is a treat to read this book. Thank you for this beautiful work.
April 25, 2019
This book has tried to decode India’s elections as simply as possible in order to provide a greater understanding of the underpinnings of our electoral system and to examine the many variables that determine ‘the verdict’ of the Indian voter. This final part takes only a few extracts from this book to highlight some key signals, indicators, and trends to look out for while tracking this big election, from the beginning of the campaign till the result on the final day of counting.
June 3, 2019
It gives an overall picture of how elections are won in India. They gave a descriptive data about the demography of each state and the heterogeneous culture in India. It mainly talks about how pollings are done in India and their credibility by explaining the past elections to present ones. It's a very good book for someone who wants to know how elections are done in India.
May 30, 2020
A good read.
Roy and Sopariwala are two of the few journalists who have dedicated an enormous effort and a lifetime of work to grasp the dynamics of the Indian elections.
The book gives a quantitative analysis into each election that has been conducted in India (General & State elections) and the trend that follows.
Roy and Sopariwala are two of the few journalists who have dedicated an enormous effort and a lifetime of work to grasp the dynamics of the Indian elections.
The book gives a quantitative analysis into each election that has been conducted in India (General & State elections) and the trend that follows.
July 19, 2020
Excellent analytical information, with transparent approach to the understanding of polls. The ocean of data is, though, hard to remember as you read through the chapters, but the direction of the vector gives you a basic framework to understand the context in which the topic has been elaborated upon.
July 31, 2022
A bit too much on the opinion polls but still has a number of insights in the changing dynamics of election in India. With one of the most important being the increasing role of local and state election and people becoming more aware and especially the increasing participation of women. Also highlights the problems being faced by the voters. A good read
December 2, 2024
Trope : Non Fictional Book
Indians Elecion & it's Development over the Years !!
Ofcourse a lengthy read but was so intriguing to know the political aspect of Indian democratic history. The book contains n number of Surveys, Charts & Facts but you'll surely study the internal Development of Independent India through Election.
Indians Elecion & it's Development over the Years !!
Ofcourse a lengthy read but was so intriguing to know the political aspect of Indian democratic history. The book contains n number of Surveys, Charts & Facts but you'll surely study the internal Development of Independent India through Election.
March 24, 2019
Excellent, insightful and short read.
A very insightful book by Dr. Roy. The writing is to the point and easy to follow for a layman. I would recommend this book to anyone looking for a book on exit/opinion polls and important variables in the outcome of Indian elections.
A very insightful book by Dr. Roy. The writing is to the point and easy to follow for a layman. I would recommend this book to anyone looking for a book on exit/opinion polls and important variables in the outcome of Indian elections.
March 31, 2019
bible for indian election
a very good book written on indian election.. covering all the aspect, far from biased opinions.. its a bible to understand the indian politics and election season..
a very good book written on indian election.. covering all the aspect, far from biased opinions.. its a bible to understand the indian politics and election season..
April 3, 2019
What a fascinating book. In a one of kind book Dr Roy talks about elections and predicting elections. This book is full of data backed anecdotes that just makes it unputdownable.
If you are an Indian politics enthusiast, a must read for you
If you are an Indian politics enthusiast, a must read for you
May 21, 2022
A must read for politicians and those who are willing to work with politicians.
Also, the only book that decode the elections in India with precise data and media background stories.
When you say data is important everywhere then don't forget to read this.
Also, the only book that decode the elections in India with precise data and media background stories.
When you say data is important everywhere then don't forget to read this.
March 24, 2024
It's a really nice book as it goes pretty deep into the electoral process with data backed research but the only thing that I didn't like was that at times its data heavy approach can leave the reader puzzled .
April 7, 2019
Academic overview on Indian elections by its keenest students. The psephology textbook India needs. More anecdotes would've been nice.
Displaying 1 - 30 of 49 reviews