Cuba After Castro: Legacies, Challenges, and Impediments

by Edward Gonzalez

Examines the sociopolitical legacy and economic challenges that will face a post-Castro goverment and the Cuban people themselves in the era after Castro.

150 pages, Paperback

First published April 25, 2004

Reviews

[John · Rating 5 out of 5]

This was a very insightful and informative book about Cuba's recent history and prognostications for the future. Put out by the Rand corporation, this narrative walks the reader through the political, economic, and social conditions since the start of the Revolution in 1959, analyzes the changes brought about from the collapse of the Soviet Union, and projects the challenges for the successor government of Fidel Castro. This is a very well written academic analysis and is very timely.

My only issue with this book is that it is 5 years old. I would very much like to see an updated version to take into account the recent changes in Cuban and Latin American dynamics. First of all, this book assumes that Fidel will be in power until he dies, then someone would have to step up and fill his dead shoes. That hasn't happened. Fidel is still alive, but he had ceded power to his brother Raul. Fidel still gives his routine speeches about the state of the Revolution, the evil US empire, and whatever topic comes to his mind. Make no mistake, Fidel is much more charismatic and idealistic than Raul, but Raul's government is still in control while one of this book's four pillars (Fidel the caudillo) remains in place. That is something the authors could not have foreseen.

Second, Chavez and Venezuela have grown significantly closer in the past 5 years. The book talks about Cuba having severe economic problems due to the lack of a "sugar daddy" when the USSR stopped shoveling them money and support. While Venezuela is not nearly as rich as the USSR, it can offer significant amounts of support to the island nation. For example, the two countries have been engaged in a doctors for oil program, where Venezuela sends some of its oil to Cuba at reduced rates while Cuba sends some of its doctors to the impoverished regions of Venezuela. That is basically a win-win because each country specializes in those items (yes, there are some free market principles going on here in the self-proclaimed communist and socialist societies). However, as the authors point out, one of the major problems for Cuba is a surplus of low skilled, unmotivated, underemployed, and unproductive workers. While Chavez can keep the island afloat (pun intended) for a while, he cannot help solve the deep economic fundamentals that will plague future Cuban governments.

Personally, I don't believe anything will change immediately after Fidel goes. Raul has a good grip on the reigns of the Revolutionary sled, and he will continue to stay the course for the foreseeable future. However, he's no spring chicken. His number will be up soon, and there is no clear successor for him. On a brighter note, Raul, realizing the dire predicament his country will soon face, may be more willing to engage in open-market trade talks with other countries, maybe even the US. Only time will tell what happens to the island, but it has a long and tumultuous road ahead.