Curtains?: The Future of the Arts in America

by Michael M. Kaiser

In this clear-minded but sobering book, Michael M. Kaiser assesses the current state of arts institutions—orchestras; opera, ballet, modern dance, and theater companies; and even museums. According to Kaiser, new developments in the twenty-first century, including the Internet explosion, the death of the recording industry, the near-death of subscriptions, economic instability, the focus on STEM education in schools, the introduction of movie-theater opera, the erosion of newspapers, the threat to serious arts criticism, and the aging of the donor base have together created tremendous challenges for all arts organizations. Using Michael Porter’s model of industry structure to describe how industries evolve, Kaiser argues persuasively that unless steps are taken now, midsized performing arts institutions will have all but evaporated by 2035. Only the largest arts organizations will survive, with tickets priced for the very wealthy and programming limited to the most popular and lucrative productions. Kaiser concludes with a call to arms. With three extraordinary decades’ experience as an arts administrator behind him, he advocates passionately for risk-taking in programming and more creative marketing, and details what needs to happen now—building strong donor bases, creating effective boards, and collective action—to sustain the performing arts for generations to come.

Genres: Nonfiction

165 pages, Kindle Edition

First published January 23, 2015

Reviews

[Christine Sumption · Rating 3 out of 5]

The first couple of chapters provide a breezy history of nonprofit arts in the U.S., laying out the landscape in broad strokes. But then Kaiser starts "predicting the future," describing what the nonprofit arts world will be like in 2035. This is where the book starts to fall apart. His predictions range from the obvious (as in what's already been happening for a number of years) to the ludicrous, and he begins to sound like a grumpy grandpa who doesn't understand newfangled technology. I don't entirely disagree with his assessment of what's happening in arts institutions now, but I resist his notion that it's only the big institutions that can produce significant art. And I believe that history moves forward in multiple, sometimes contradictory courses. I foresee a re-embrace of live performance (something like the slow food movement), audiences who crave the intimacy of the live experience with actors, dancers, and musicians. And I envision a regional, even local reclamation of excellence. Less spectacle, more emphasis on great writing, great choreography, great performance. Yes, some large and mid-size arts organizations will die, and maybe that's not a bad thing. New builds on the ashes of the old.

[Dan Graser · Rating 4 out of 5]

This analysis from arts impresario Michael M Kaiser is a brief breath of fresh fire into the discussion of the future of the arts as we know them. It's just about once every two months that an "article" comes out about the death of some art form, most often classical music, usually prompted by a particularly slow week for the arts section of said periodical and them needing to gain readership somehow. The remaining 5%of the time the article actually details how some facet of the art form as we know it is going the way of the dodo due to myriad factors. This book reads like an extended form of the latter article, in this case by someone who has run (and in many cases successfully turned around) the Kennedy Center for Performing Arts, Alvin Ailey American Dance Theater, American Ballet Theatre, and the Royal Opera House.

Kaiser doesn't spare any bleakness when discussing the subject and following a deft and cogent summary of the arts in the US, he projects - out to 2035 - the future of moderate sized arts organizations in music, theatre, and dance. Not surprisingly, the future is not presented as being particularly promising and the sheer amount of change in the area of artistic dissemination especially will be jarring to those who have not previously studied the subject. Admittedly, predicting anything 20 years in advance (this book is from 2015) is a bit of a fool's errand given the rate of change we are seeing in every job sector and in the areas of technology, news-media, and social media. Prognostication is usually not a very profitable endeavor, however, given Kaiser's experience with drastic change at several organizations I would encourage you to give these an honest appraisal, bleak though they may be.

While I do not share his notions as to how we will be experiencing music specifically by 2035 I still found this brief work very informative and engaging written with an urgency inspired by a fervent passion for the arts. Those in the performing arts field in any role should strongly consider this as well as the rest of Kaiser's output for their education (currently working through them myself).

[Andrew · Rating 3 out of 5]

The first few chapters are a great history of the arts in America through the 20th century, their heyday in the 1950s-90s and the decline of funding post-9/11. Then there are two chapters filled with dire predictions presented as fact. Then a very useful chapter with solutions for ameliorating the impact of the predictions in the previous chapters.

Now, I may be looking at it with a jaundiced eye since I make my living in the arts, but I have a hard time swallowing the future laid out in this book. Predictions about the future progress and use of technology, and how people will react to it, are almost universally wrong. Had the prediction chapters not been included, or had they been presented as a worst case scenario rather than the absolute fact of what will happen, I would have given this book another star. Had the last chapter with solutions not been there, I would have taken another star away.

In all, there's a lot of good to be gleaned from this book, and Kaiser certainly speaks from a position of authority, but the tone of the middle third of the book, the mixture of doom and certainty, is off-putting and really detracted from my enjoyment.

[Kbrooke · Rating 3 out of 5]

Do you want the good news or the bad news?
Actually, there isn't any good news.

[Rebecca J Duncan · Rating 4 out of 5]

This book was very informative about historical trends in the arts industry, but having been published in 2015 before Trump's White House and his attacks on arts spending and before COVID and its consequences I was concerned about its relevance today. Some of Kaiser's predictions about the future of the arts have come true sadly and he makes an excellent link between the lack of an art curriculum in schools and the future of donor giving. Overall well worth the read.

[Robert · Rating 4 out of 5]

Uncannily prescient, as it was written in 2015 and is pretty damned spot on in 2023. I run a small community theater and am taking a great deal from this book to try and turn the page on an 80 year organizational history, to adapt to the current environment.

[Matt · Rating 4 out of 5]

I read this right after his book on Strategic Planning, so though this book had some more interesting historic narratives, a lot of examples were used in both books, and the other one felt a little more practical. That said, I think this was thought-provoking.

[Courtney Ferguson]

Great read if you are interested in the preservation of the arts from an economic, managerial, and technological standpoint. My heart is hopeful for the future of live performances.

[Tamsin Lorraine · Rating 4 out of 5]

A must-read for any arts professional; useful also for those outside the US, although I do wish there was a Canadian Michael Kaiser!

[Maura Keefe · Rating 3 out of 5]

Kaiser knows tons, even if not a writer first and foremost.

[Rachel Ader · Rating 3 out of 5]

interesting but so much bitching and also he was very wrong and narrow minded thinking about the timeline of the changing of the arts landscape

[Dan Gorman · Rating 4 out of 5]

Michael M. Kaiser makes a persuasive case that the long-term survival of the American arts industry is in serious danger. Cuts to arts education and soaring ticket prices mean that fewer people have an appreciation for or access to the arts from a young age. The rich donors who gave so much to the arts in the twentieth century are dying and young donors are largely not taking their places. Technology and new forms of entertainment seem more appealing to consumers than classical music or other art, much of which has been grossly overpriced in recent years. The future Kaiser describes looks OK for major symphonies and museums with deep pockets, but mid-sized and small institutions will be done for. As often happens in this type of polemical book, Kaiser does better at portraying the threat than possible solutions. He is pretty bleak about technology replacing in-person enjoyment of entertainment. Nonetheless, Kaiser advocates intelligent mergers of arts institutions to share resources, aggressive fundraising, better corporate management of arts institutions, and a robust advocacy campaign. I can only hope some of his strategies help to save the American arts.

[Charles · Rating 3 out of 5]

Recommended for arts managers and art organization board members. Kaiser puts forth many good points about where arts management has been and where it's going. However, in some sort of cruel irony, chapter 3 gets redundant as it details dire forecasts from different arts sectors such as ballet, opera, music, and museums. For the most part, each dire forecast is largely the same as the last, excepting organizations and art forms mentioned.

[Bonnie]

Kaiser is very knowledgeable but paints a rather grim future for the arts. He does, however, provide some hope and insight into how the arts can be successful moving forward in our technological, global society.

[Julie · Rating 5 out of 5]

Thankful for the great leadership we have at CPH.