Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty: From Theory to Practice

by Vincent A.W.J. Marchau, Warren E. Walker (Editor), Pieter J.T.M. Bloemen (Editor)

This open access book focuses on both the theory and practice associated with the tools and approaches for decisionmaking in the face of deep uncertainty. It explores approaches and tools supporting the design of strategic plans under deep uncertainty, and their testing in the real world, including barriers and enablers for their use in practice. The book broadens traditional approaches and tools to include the analysis of actors and networks related to the problem at hand. It also shows how lessons learned in the application process can be used to improve the approaches and tools used in the design process. The book offers guidance in identifying and applying appropriate approaches and tools to design plans, as well as advice on implementing these plans in the real world. For decisionmakers and practitioners, the book includes realistic examples and practical guidelines that should help them understand what decisionmaking under deep uncertainty is and how it may be of assistance to them. Decision Making under Deep From Theory to Practice is divided into four parts. Part I presents five approaches for designing strategic plans under deep Robust Decision Making, Dynamic Adaptive Planning, Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways, Info-Gap Decision Theory, and Engineering Options Analysis. Each approach is worked out in terms of its theoretical foundations, methodological steps to follow when using the approach, latest methodological insights, and challenges for improvement. In Part II, applications of each of these approaches are presented. Based on recent case studies, the practical implications of applying each approach are discussed in depth. Part III focuses on using the approaches and tools in real-world contexts, based on insights from real-world cases. Part IV contains conclusions and a synthesis of the lessons that can be drawn for designing, applying, and implementing strategic plans under deep uncertainty, as well as recommendations for future work.The publication of this book has been funded by the Radboud University, the RAND Corporation, Delft University of Technology, and Deltares.

Genres: Business, Economics, Nonfiction, Psychology

703 pages, Kindle Edition

Published April 4, 2019

Reviews

[Navneet Bhushan · Rating 5 out of 5]

Must Read to understand what exactly are the categories of uncertainty!

Many of the frameworks for decision making though are from other sources and authors.

However this is by and large first comprehensive volume to collect nd compose different decision making frameworks.

It may well have been more interesting if these frameworks can also be defined for and applied for what are called " wicked problems "

Irrespective for me, the book should be available to all decision makers. Also it may be useful if they read it as well.

Definitely the decision analysts should study this and use these frameworks appropriately ... for example level 5 uncertainty ... total ignorance should be recognised and reduced before applying any decision analysis framework.

Must read !

[Tara Brabazon · Rating 5 out of 5]

A fascinating inter-disciplinary book. How do we make decisions when we don't have the necessary information? This book takes these question as its focus, exploring how policy makers in particular intervene and create change. The topics range from managing a water supply to climate change, how to manage overpopulation and the global financial crisis.

This book works well. It is fascinating. The writers are situated throughout the diverse political spectrum - which adds juice to the argument.

I remain quite struck by how the space between information and decisions is filled.

[Alireza Hejazi · Rating 5 out of 5]

This book provides an expression of the approaches and tools being used by experts for decision-making, especially under deep uncertain conditions. It helps designing strategic plans to face deep uncertainty and testing them under real conditions. The book develops traditional approaches and tools of decision-making to an analysis of the key players in the process of solving problems. The readers learn how to design and implement strategies to improve their decisions. It contains real examples and practical guidelines to help readers understand what decision-making under deep uncertainty is and how they can benefit from the implications of their decisions.

[Scribbles and Books]

DNF