It is now about eight years since the referendum on whether or not Britain should remain in the European Union. The decision to leave has probably been the single most significant political issue in Britain throughout my lifetime, and even though it is now a few years since the final departure, its reverberations are still being felt.
From the outside it might seem simply to have been a fairly straightforward binary option, with followers of either side campaigning against adherents of the other. Oh, if only it had been that straightforward! This is the third volume in Tim Shipman’s comprehensive, and admirably non-partisan account of the Brexit story – he had initially intended that three would be enough, but that was before the unfolding pantomime or farce of the Boris Johnson and Liz Truss premierships, which have merited a separate volume of their own, to be published shortly.
This third instalment follows the ups and downs … well, let’s be serious, the downs and further downs of Theresa May’s attempts to bring Brexit to fruition, and the stalemate that befell parliament. I worked in Whitehall throughout the period covered in the book, and I was simultaneously struck by how much I recalled in pellucid detail … and how much I had forgotten (although it is possible that that reflects the subconscious activation of mental health defence mechanisms). Certainly, reading it again brought back traumatic memories of ‘Meaningful Votes’ and the sheer intransigence and perverseness of characters on either side of the issue. I do remember wondering at the time how Theresa May managed to keep going, and still turn up at Parliament for what seemed to become a daily mauling. Whatever one thinks of her views, her resilience and dignity under unprecedented pressure were phenomenal.
She did seem to have a considerable knack for snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. I remember being in a high level meeting with the Senior Leadership Team of the Department for Education in April 2017 when the news came through that she had called a sudden general election. At that time, her party was riding high in the polls from the local council elections that were imminent around much of the country, and she thought it might be a good opportunity to capitalise on that, and enhance her parliamentary majority. The Opposition at that time was led by Jeremy Corbyn, and his campaign for the local elections had started with a series of ‘car crash’ interviews by him and some of his senior colleagues within the party. What May failed to take into account were the fact that over the last few days, Corbyn and his colleagues had actually improved their campaigning performance, and the fact that the local election schedule meant that the parliamentary elections would have to be deferred longer than usual. I think that campaign exhaustion set in with the public, who showed little appetite for, or interest in, an elongated campaign period.
The outcome was disastrous for Theresa May, and when ballots were counted she found that her previous slender parliamentary majority had been eroded. In order to maintain her government she was required to enter into a ‘confidence and supply agreement’ (essentially a coalition) with the Democratic Unionist Party from Northern Ireland. Having already struggled to secure any practical agreement across Parliament to support her Brexit measures, this left her vulnerable to further dissent within her own party, and pitiless ridicule from the opposition parties facing her. From there on, two years of political stalemate (given the soubriquet ‘Erskine Mayhem’ by one constitution commentator) set in, and the British parliament, hitherto viewed with respect all around the world, descended into farce.
Shipman has drawn on a vast selection of sources, including an impressive journalistic archive and his own (often unattributed) conversations with most of the leading participants. Even though we all know the outcome, the book is gripping throughout, presented almost like a Shakespearean tragedy. At times hilarious, there are also episodes that provoke fury at the utter incompetence of leading figures on both sides of the issue, who frequently displayed emotional illiteracy or an utter incapacity for empathy.
The bitterness and personal enmity (not to mention the Shakespearean similarities) continued throughout, as manifested in the bizarre machinations within the struggle to secure the Conservative leadership. Machiavelli, Iago and Bosola would have been in their element within that farrago of pledges and sleights of hand, as different attempts to resolve the impasse were bruited and then forsaken.
The ‘what if’ counterfactual novel has become very popular over recent years, with works such as Robert Harris’s Fatherland or the late Philip Roth’s the Plot Against America exploring alternative historical outcomes. I feel sure that within a few years we will start seeing novels considering alternative outcomes of the Brexit.
Tim Shipman’s book is both informative and entertaining, proving once again how much stranger fact can be than fiction. Regardless of the political complexion of the government, I have always believed that it is in everyone’s interest that we have a strong opposition. Shipman makes clear that, following the as yet unhealed internal divisions within the Conservatives following their post-Referendum leadership contest, the Government seemed holed below the waterline, and offered an easy target for Her Majesty’s Opposition. Only there was no Opposition. While the Conservative tore themselves apart following David Cameron’s resignation, they did at least manage to appoint a new leader within a matter of a few weeks. Meanwhile, the Labour Party, having gone through one painful leadership contest that resulted with apparent rank outsider Jeremy Corbyn emerging as runaway winner, chose to plunge itself into a second contest, rendering the same result but with an even bigger margin, although it took several months to do so. All of which makes the Labour resurgence in the 2017 general election such a surprise.
The clear lesson from Shipman’s book is the enduring peril of political hubris. Labour centrists refused to believe that the party could appoint a genuinely socialist leader, while Theresa May failed to acknowledge the possibility that she would not be returned to Downing Street with a Thatcheresque landslide majority. As in a Greek tragedy, in which the oracle has offered its occluded prophesy, both those conceits would be punctured in the most brutal fashion. Unfortunately, amusing though such outcomes and fractured vanities might appear in the abstract, the consequent uncertainly was painful for Britain, and indeed Europe, to live through.