The Logic Of Sports Betting

by Ed Miller, Matthew Davidow

How do sportsbooks make their lines? Which types of bets are the best? Can you beat the house?

The Logic Of Sports Betting answers all these questions and more with a dash of humor and a whole lot of real talk about how it all works. Peek behind the counter and learn how sportsbooks operate. Combine that insider knowledge with why-didn’t-I-think-of-that sports betting logic, and you have the winning formula.

Ed Miller is a best-selling (over 300,000 copies sold) author of books on poker and gambling. This is his first book on sports betting, but maybe his favorite book to write so far.

Matthew Davidow is a sports modeler, using proprietary methods to beat major sports betting markets for over 15 years, and co-founding two leading private sports analytics firms along the way.

What people are saying about The Logic Of Sports

"Matt and Ed are two of the smartest minds in sports betting." - Rufus Peabody, professional sports bettor

"As a sportsbook employee for 30-plus years, I find it difficult to read or watch anything about sports betting. But I could not put The Logic Of Sports Betting down. It’s that good." - Robert Walker, Las Vegas bookmaker

Genres: Sports, Nonfiction, Mathematics, Economics, Logic, Money, Football

239 pages, Kindle Edition

Published May 21, 2019

Reviews

[Max McGougan]

Tyler Herro 2021-2022 6th Man of the Year +2000 bet the house on it.

[Jason · Rating 4 out of 5]

To start this review off I am a very novice gambler. I love sports and I thought this would be a good way to stay involved.

As a novice, I found this book to be super helpful in understanding good vs. bad bets. You’ll need a basic understanding in math to really get the most out of this book but if you’re comfortable with that you’ll learn a lot.

Actually, I feel like the book could use MORE mathematical examples and breakdowns because I found myself googling more formulas to help me understand how I can tip the odds in my favor. Probably a misunderstanding on my part but at times I felt that the book was a bit more advanced than what I was expecting.

Either way, once I educated myself on more of the sports betting world I found it very helpful. Just maybe a bit past the beginner stage for anyone who isn’t familiar with gambling terminology or ideas.

[Red · Rating 5 out of 5]

takes you from knowing nothing about sports betting to being able to hack away at the sportsbook's edge. Everyone who wants to bet on sports should read this.

Also, as a non fiction book, it's incredibly concise! I wish more non fiction books came in around 265 pages that get to the point so well.

[Derek · Rating 3 out of 5]

Insightful and practical with the right amount of humor to keep it from being too dry. Really what this book taught me is that I don't want to do the large amount of legwork necessary to make a profit on sports betting.

[RAD · Rating 4 out of 5]

Logical Complexity

I knew virtually nothing about sports betting until I read this book. It interested me from the standpoint of the “logic” in the title. Additionally, I’m interested in complexity, networks, and systems, and sports betting falls under the aegis of each. This book is not about how to make money in sports betting; rather, it is a logical overview of how the process works.

Logic is broken into three sections: the first is outlines how sportsbooks work; the second addresses the logic involved in sportsbook betting; and the third gives an overview of how to identify good and bad bets.

The authors know the subject well: the back-cover blurb describes Miller as “a best-selling (over 300,000 copies sold) author of books on poker and gambling,” while Davidow is a “sports modeler” and co-founder of two sports analytics firms.

Unlike other casino games, the authors point out that sports betting really is “unique because it’s the only game where you are, in fact, playing against the house.” Other games like slots, blackjack, and poker are set up simply to collect the bettor’s losses. However, in sports betting, “The house is an active participant. It’s your main, direct adversary. [Sports betting] is a zero-sum game. Either you will win, and the house will lose the same amount. Or the house will win, and you will lose.” Additionally, sports betting is a multiplayer game, played indirectly with other bettors.

The authors sum up the book’s scope and intent thusly: “This book is about the logic of sports betting. It’s not a guide to becoming a professional bettor, and in particular, there is one key area of professional betting I don’t cover—data analytics and modeling. It’s possible to win a little at sports if you don’t do much data work, but it’s impossible to win a lot without diving deeply into the data. What I cover in this book is all required knowledge to bet professionally, but it is not enough on its own” (pp. 9-10).

I am a stickler for titles of nonfiction books. Titles should describe the contents. Many don’t (see here, here, and here; I also give examples of properly titled books). But The Logic of Sports Betting is about exactly what the title says, and it does that very well.

[Yordan Simov · Rating 2 out of 5]

Had to read this because of work. It did not meet my expectations tbh. Firstly, it’s too american (obviously) which makes it hard to understand for people from Europe and it’s not just about the odds but also the examples of markets, way of betting, sports etc. So if you are not betting on american sports or not familiar with this topic I would not recommend the book. Secondly, the part in the book about the guide on how to win from sports betting may be helpful to someone who has never placed a bet before. However, for a person familiar with that there’s very little important information inside. The part with the break even percentage was the most interesting to me despite all the examples being with american odds, markets, rules etc

[Alex · Rating 4 out of 5]

If there was a sport betting 101 class, this would the accompanying textbook. This book covers everything: how a sportsbook is really just a type of financial market, how you can find an edge in that market, where edges generally exist, and even the differences between the business models of various types of books and what that means for you.

It's a fantastic introduction to sports betting and the sole reason I didn't give this book 5 stars is because it didn't touch on one of the most important parts of betting: bankroll management. Given the misinformation in the gambling media regarding it (especially with regards to the myth that you should always bet a "unit" or to win a unit), I think that this book should've dedicated a section to the subject.

As an example, let's say your best friend is a degenerate gambler and likes betting on coin flips just for fun. If you have $100 and your friend allows you to bet on the result of the flip for any amount of money at even odds (if you bet $5, you win $5 + your initial $5), how much of your bankroll should you bet on each flip with a fair coin in order to maximize your expected ROI? How about if you know that the coin will come up heads 60% of the time? And how does that change if you know that the coin will come up heads 80% of the time? Wouldn't you want to vary your bet size based on the size of the edge you have?

It turns out that the answers to those questions can be proven mathematically via the Kelly criterion (spoilers: betting the same amount regardless of your edge is incredibly sub-optimal. Bigger spoilers: betting without a quantifiable edge is just lighting your money on fire in the long run). If you read up on it after reading this book, you'll know everything you'll need to start being a profitable bettor.

[Maciej Walinski · Rating 4 out of 5]

Detailed Look into the Mind of a Professional Sports Bettor

The biggest thing I got out of this book is that my mind is simply not wired to ever bet on sports in anything more than a casual, for entertainment only capacity.

There is some great insight into how sports books are made, and what to watch out for and be aware of, but the amount of effort it takes, not to mention the ability to properly calculate and calibrate odds, certainly isn't for everyone - and I think the same can be said for this book.

Casual bettors, looking to give themselves a slight edge, may learn something here, but it will likely mostly fly above their heads like it did mine. People with more mathematically inclined, analytical brains who really want to make a go of professional betting will be well served here.

[Bob · Rating 3 out of 5]

Gambling is the only disease where you can win a lot of money

Non-fiction notes:
-Learned how to calculate implied odds
-Learned how to calculate the hold on lines
-Learned that you should really only bet into markets with low or no hold, but you can create these markets with "synthetic hold" by comparing lines across books
-Learned that weaker markets (fewer bets into them, less picked over lines) are easier to bet into and win
-Learned how lines are set, and what strong vs weak lines are
-Learned all this and have less of a desire to gamble than I did before picking up the book, but at least now I know what I'm getting into

[Henrietta P Featherstone · Rating 3 out of 5]

Did the book have a lot of insightful thoughts and comments and ideas? Most definitely. Did I understand them?? Errr if we’re being generous maybe I got like 2% of them. But you know that’s more than 0, I’ll take that as a win thank you very much

[David Karp · Rating 3 out of 5]

A very interesting and technical book, with far too much math and statistics to fit in an Audiobook format. It was simply too tough to follow without seeing the numbers and calculations written out….

[Mike Cheng · Rating 3 out of 5]

Probably the best material on the subject I’ve read so far, even if a lot was hypertechnical. The book is divided into three parts: (A) nuts and bolts about how sportsbooks work; (B) the authors’ approach to “logical” betting; and (C) copious examples of how to identify and exploit market inefficiencies based on what is offered on the various menus. One thing the authors stress from the outset is to disabuse yourself of the notion that sportsbetting is “against the house””; rather, there is theoretically someone on the other side of every bet who believes in an opposite outcome. In other words (mine), books ideally make money on the vigorish (aka the hold, the juice, the rake) by setting an accurate betting line that splits the betting public. The goal in laying any bet, therefore, is not to “beat Vegas” per se, but to either find a bet where the public has less information than you (good luck with that) or to take advantage of mispriced opening lines which is best achieved by laying early and/or by looking at numerous books. By far the most interesting component is how difficult it is for retail sportsbooks to operate: because most source the opening betting lines from third parties (or bigger books), blindspots exist and course correction via line adjustment is suboptimal given the bettors’ ability to arbitrage when other books offer different lines. Where the authors see value are in virgin lines, scarcely examined / less popular bets (e.g., Korean baseball), and lines that require constant upkeep (e.g., live odds, and prop bets). For the bettor looking to profit over the long haul, a vigilant commitment to data collection and specialization are key. Also, treat sportsbetting like an easter egg hunt - when all the kids run in one direction, think about going in the other and relish finding those hidden gems.

[Henry · Rating 5 out of 5]

My main takeaway from the book has nothing to do with sports betting, but rather a philosophy that the author aims to distill to his readers - which is that in order to really benefit form an industry, one must know that industry well enough to be an insider, rather than outsider.

The author spent majorities of the book not talking about a "trick" of sorts to make money - as the author stated that if he writes a "cheat" in the book, it will simply get patched in no time anyways - but rather on how the industry operates. Only when someone knows how the industry operates, someone could bet in a long term basis and benefit from the bet. Because this person would know why and how a certain bet works, also how and why other bet won't.

The main thesis of the book is that it's fruitless to bet on lines that are heavily saught after by others. By the nature of the business, those lines would no longer have money making potential. It's the lines that have disadvantages to the sports books - the derivatives, the off times - where sports books list them not to make money but to satisfy their customers' needs to bet. In essence, as author noted, attack their weakness, not their strength.

[Larissa Ortiz · Rating 5 out of 5]

"Hi everyone, I’ve been reading through the comments on this book and it’s interesting how many people focus on the logical side of sports betting rather than pure luck. I had a similar shift in mindset a while ago, when I started looking beyond tips and odds and tried to understand where betting really comes from. That curiosity pushed me to read more about the history and structure behind modern wagering. From my own experience, this article helped connect a lot of dots between theory and practice. It even made me think differently about how current platforms, like the MelBet Platform are shaped by decades of evolution. I liked that the explanation felt thoughtful and grounded, not flashy. Overall, it complemented the ideas from this book really well and kept the whole topic feeling positive and insightful."

[Adam Stein · Rating 5 out of 5]

I thought I understood how sports books operated and how sports betting worked but this book opened by eyes. My understanding was perhaps 20% of what really happens.

Great explanation of how books get, set, and update lines and how to approach sports betting if you're serious about winning. This is a must read if you every want to be more than someone who makes a few bets once a year when you go to Vegas. With legalized sports betting about to be widespread, this information is worth knowing.

The audience for this book is fairly narrow. So while I gave it 5 stars it's only good for those interested in sports betting or how sports books work.

[Deep Thought · Rating 4 out of 5]

Very interesting book on what it takes to be a winning player. It is not prescriptive (the author says this many time), but is meant to give the reader a peak into how winning players think and act. Unfortunately for me as a recreational player, this book was sobering to the negative side. I learned that I do not have what it takes to win consistently. Now, does that mean I will no longer wager for fun/enjoyment? Of course not. But any delusions of becoming ’profitable’ got stamped out quite thoroughly. Ironically, in the end, that might be even more profitable than any advantage I could have hoped to gain by reading this. Knowing your limits and increased self-awareness is true salvation.

[David · Rating 4 out of 5]

The logic of sports betting, indeed. It reviews terminology, gives a thumbnail sketch of the industry players, and lays out some basic of the basic arithmetic. My quant skills are fine, and I would have still appreciated a bit more emphasis on the latter point.

It turns out that the logic of sports betting is that there is a logic and likely plenty of money to be made, but it's pretty much a full-time job keeping vigilant and grinding it out. Kind of takes the fun out of it.

The book is not title *The Machinery of Successful Sports Betting*, for that you will need to look elsewhere.

[Marta Evans · Rating 5 out of 5]

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[Joe Mayall · Rating 4 out of 5]

I really appreciated this book. It's full of important knowledge and is explained by a professional. In addition to showing the "how to" of sports gambling, Miller approaches the "common man" approach and shows how it can get you into trouble. As someone who is equal parts excited and worried about gambling money, this was crucial to putting up flags for me to know when to bet, and more importantly, when not to bet. It is self-published so there are a few confusing bits, but overall a great and informative read.

[Donald Mason · Rating 5 out of 5]

Man, reading about The Logic of Sports Betting reminds me of something I got hooked on recently. Just like how the book breaks down how sportsbooks operate and how to outsmart them, I happened to find out that this app lets you play smarter, but in a totally social way. You can implement your own strategy and even bet against your friends. The mix of humor and real talk in the book sounds just like how this app takes the complexity out of betting and makes it more about the fun and strategy.

[Patrick Cormack · Rating 4 out of 5]

Having recently getting into betting on NFL matches, I read this book to try and get some insights into selecting good bets. It definitely helped me with this. It also explains how odds are written, calculated and what to be aware of when looking at odds. Concepts like ‘the hold’ and how bookmakers make money are explained with examples. I am into numbers and statistics and how they are formulated so I found this book very informative from that point of view. If you want to think about your bets strategically and not just throw money on outcomes I would recommend reading this book.

[Al . Exe · Rating 4 out of 5]

Definitely will burst the get rich quick bubble that most YouTube videos will sell you. There's a reason most people don't do this professionally. Most of content sounds like absolute witchcraft to the untrained eye (and third eye really). I'd recommend brushing up on your probabilities on Khan academy and at least learning what a sports betting looks like before picking this book up..I scored it a 4 because I did finish it in a few days so there's something to say about the entertainment factor. The author's writing is very engaging despite the material being very dense.

[Rob Sedgwick · Rating 5 out of 5]

Brilliant overview of betting on American sports

Everything in this book is American, the sports, the markets and the odds. I don't bet on these markets much, and I don't use US sportsbooks. The book was also written some years ago. All that said, there's still enough generic information to make it a great book today for me. There's plenty of ideas in there you can extend to your own situation.

[Britton Bush · Rating 4 out of 5]

I enjoyed learning about the ins and outs of how odds and lines are calculated and refined. I especially liked the sections in the beginning that discuss sportsbook business models and the efficient market theory applied to sports betting. My take away: “Winning” in sports betting is an extremely difficult endeavor and requires a lot of effort and time to do well. However, it appears it can be done with good logic, persistence, modeling, and math.

[Mark · Rating 3 out of 5]

Just because I’m stupid and bad at math doesn’t mean it wasn’t good. It was more inspirational than informational for me. It helps get an idea of Sportsbook holds, betting errors, timing strategies, etc. Some of these things I found easier explained elsewhere once I learned about them. However, for me it was more for someone that is betting like a day trader across multiple books than someone that is just having fun.

[William Doo · Rating 5 out of 5]

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[JasonMilan]

For me, online football betting is about smart choices and patience. I like analyzing head to head records and player performance. It turns every fixture into a small project to think through. The bonuses and promos at my favorite online betting site https://1xbetbd.com/ can add value if used wisely. I never chase losses and keep my stakes reasonable. With discipline, it stays entertaining and controlled.

[Luther · Rating 5 out of 5]

occasionally you run into a book written by someone who clearly has a complete understanding of what they're talking about and can explain it in a way that makes perfect sense.

this is one of those books. regardless of if you care about sports or gambling, you will be smarter after you read this.

[Steven Askin · Rating 5 out of 5]

Solid book on sports betting.

Enjoyed this book on sports betting. A great introduction to the thinking of a sports bettor. Much more to it than meets the eye and this book does a great job showing everyone the secrets.

[Helfren · Rating 4 out of 5]

Interesting books on sports betting and to understand the mentality of the market maker and how to be the advantageous side of the exchange. The clear cut book to read and to be on top of today's supernerd of the big money on betting industries.