What do you think?
Rate this book
Heilbrunn Center for Graham & Dodd Investing Series
Non-Consensus Investing: Being Right When Everyone Else Is Wrong
At a time when many proclaim the death of active investing, Rupal J. Bhansali, global contrarian, makes a clarion call for its renaissance. Non-consensus thinking has resulted in breakthrough successes in science, sports, and Silicon Valley. Bhansali shows how to apply it to the world of investing to improve one's odds of achieving above-average returns with below-average risks. Her upside-down investment approach focuses on avoiding losers instead of picking the winners, asking the right questions instead of knowing the right answers, and scoring upset victories to achieve the greatest bang for one's research buck.
Through a series of counterintuitive concepts and contemporary case studies from her firsthand experience of investing in fifty markets around the globe, Bhansali describes how to perform differentiated fundamental research to uncover mispriced stocks. She candidly shares her failures and mistakes as well as her successes and triumphs. She also weaves in her personal journey, recounting how she overcame the odds to succeed in a male-dominated profession and offering advice on breaking the glass ceiling. Non-Consensus Investing is a must-read for anyone who seeks to understand why active investing disappointed and how it can succeed--analysts and amateurs, fiduciaries and financial advisors, aspiring and practicing money managers, as well as students or investment enthusiasts.
Through a series of counterintuitive concepts and contemporary case studies from her firsthand experience of investing in fifty markets around the globe, Bhansali describes how to perform differentiated fundamental research to uncover mispriced stocks. She candidly shares her failures and mistakes as well as her successes and triumphs. She also weaves in her personal journey, recounting how she overcame the odds to succeed in a male-dominated profession and offering advice on breaking the glass ceiling. Non-Consensus Investing is a must-read for anyone who seeks to understand why active investing disappointed and how it can succeed--analysts and amateurs, fiduciaries and financial advisors, aspiring and practicing money managers, as well as students or investment enthusiasts.
- GenresFinanceNonfiction
280 pages, Hardcover
Published October 1, 2019
66 people are currently reading
241 people want to read
Ratings & Reviews
Friends & Following
Create a free account to discover what your friends think of this book!
Community Reviews
Displaying 1 - 14 of 14 reviews
March 5, 2020
This is an average book which I would havs happily endorsed as 3 star. However, the problem is the author herself.
One, she keeps telling her story of perseverence and dedication and how she was always on the brink and managed to clinch success through her willpower and blah blah. If that was not bad, worse is to follow.
She claims to have not made a mistake in any of the preceding crisis. She avoided tech stocks in dot com bubble, avoided Asia in 1997 crisis, didnt buy any real estate or any of the companies which went bust in 2008,etc etc etc.
This is further topped up by self anointment as a great investor, who does everything right, whose research prowess are superior,whose track record is excellent and what not.
Well, the problem is, she is not, and I repeat, she is NOT Seth Klarman, Howard Marks, Rakesh Jhunjhunwala or Warren Buffett. Hence, it was a petty attempt of self promotion which made an otherwise good book a very bad reding experience.
One, she keeps telling her story of perseverence and dedication and how she was always on the brink and managed to clinch success through her willpower and blah blah. If that was not bad, worse is to follow.
She claims to have not made a mistake in any of the preceding crisis. She avoided tech stocks in dot com bubble, avoided Asia in 1997 crisis, didnt buy any real estate or any of the companies which went bust in 2008,etc etc etc.
This is further topped up by self anointment as a great investor, who does everything right, whose research prowess are superior,whose track record is excellent and what not.
Well, the problem is, she is not, and I repeat, she is NOT Seth Klarman, Howard Marks, Rakesh Jhunjhunwala or Warren Buffett. Hence, it was a petty attempt of self promotion which made an otherwise good book a very bad reding experience.
December 8, 2019
It first seemed that the book was another value investing focussed book with a slightly arrogant title, but the author(a fund manager) explains her view that value investing is not about low multiples, but about low risk that arises from a margin of safety. The chapter on quality is itself worth the price of the book(!), as also the umpteen real global examples. Go out and read the bookm and then come back to this review
Some other insights
1) A low valuation multiple is tangible and tempting, whereas figuring out the quality of the business is intangible and daunting. Chances are the brain will default to its mental shortcuts and fall into the availability bias and confirmation bias
2) If you base your investment decisions on information that everyone (the consensus) has (stock prices, headline valuation multiples), it confers neither an advantage nor profit...
3)At its core, fundamental research is about figuring out the correct inputs, such as understanding why a company makes money, how much money it will make, for how long, and what risks it is exposed to in doing so..Good (or terrible) things happen in the business first, then they manifest themselves in the financial statements, and finally in the stock price. By doing research at the front end (the business), you give yourself a lead..Research is not merely about knowing a lot; it is about understanding a lot and, more importantly, applying what you know
4) She has certain controversial views comparing Apple to Sony as potential value trap(consumer electronic hit driven business) but gives data like Gross profit margins of Apple are around 40 percent, whereas those at tech companies with proprietary moats such as Microsoft or SAP are at twice that level.
5_ Growth investing can disappoint with even minor misses. For example, as she explains for Apple, A 15x PE multiple may not offer a margin of safety if earnings fall by 30 percent. Could that happen? All it would take is 10 percent lower sales and a 5 percent reduction in gross margin. At that point, the stock would be trading on 20x multiples—theoretically. Actually, it is unlikely the stock would trade on 20x. Much more likely it would derate to, say, 10x as lower growth expectations typically cause investors to lower the multiple they are willing to pay. This means you could lose 50 percent on your investment.. Keep in mind that to cause massive losses for its investors, a company does not have to disappear or die, it just needs to disappoint
60 Is the stock trading above, at, or below its intrinsic value? Everyone blithely skips that part. Quant doesn’t calculate it (“algorithms compute relative value not intrinsic value”), trend followers don’t care about it (“don’t let facts get in the way of a good momentum story”), growth investors rationalize it (“the high growth assumptions justify it”), and passive ignores it (“theirs not to question why, theirs but to do or die”).
7) Avoiding or abating the risk of large losses upfront means you save your hard-earned money and you do not need to hit a lot of home runs. Because the losses are small, you can easily offset them by hitting good singles..Risk management requires a contrarian bent of mind. It means that you must proactively seek out bad news and figure out what can go wrong, and you must do it before the horse leaves the barn. Nonetheless, many investors behave like daredevils, hoping for the best instead of preparing for the worst, as if some magical risk alert will go off a minute before midnight so they can wait to deal with it then. Think of risk management as an insurance policy: you need to buy it before the accident or catastrophe occurs, not after.
8) They(consumer staples investors) swapped earnings-volatility risk for stock-valuation risk. Risk is risk, no matter what label it wears. The goal of risk management is not to swap one form of risk for another, but to reduce or get rid of it, or at least get paid for it and not pay for it.
9) Non-consensus investing is about buying quality when it goes on sale, not buying junk at clearance prices...Captivity is not loyalty. High-quality businesses are those where customers willingly do business even if they could go elsewhere, because they are getting real value for their money...The value of the brand is implicitly captured in the revenues, earnings, and cash flows of the company, so the contribution is already embedded in the valuation of the firm...is this a high-quality business experiencing a tough time or a low-quality business experiencing a good time? The former is an opportunity; the latter is a red flag... despite being high-tech, petrochemical plants do not generate good returns on capital invested, which makes them low-quality businesses with poor value-creation prospects(as suppliers can provide the plant to ANYONE)
Some other insights
1) A low valuation multiple is tangible and tempting, whereas figuring out the quality of the business is intangible and daunting. Chances are the brain will default to its mental shortcuts and fall into the availability bias and confirmation bias
2) If you base your investment decisions on information that everyone (the consensus) has (stock prices, headline valuation multiples), it confers neither an advantage nor profit...
3)At its core, fundamental research is about figuring out the correct inputs, such as understanding why a company makes money, how much money it will make, for how long, and what risks it is exposed to in doing so..Good (or terrible) things happen in the business first, then they manifest themselves in the financial statements, and finally in the stock price. By doing research at the front end (the business), you give yourself a lead..Research is not merely about knowing a lot; it is about understanding a lot and, more importantly, applying what you know
4) She has certain controversial views comparing Apple to Sony as potential value trap(consumer electronic hit driven business) but gives data like Gross profit margins of Apple are around 40 percent, whereas those at tech companies with proprietary moats such as Microsoft or SAP are at twice that level.
5_ Growth investing can disappoint with even minor misses. For example, as she explains for Apple, A 15x PE multiple may not offer a margin of safety if earnings fall by 30 percent. Could that happen? All it would take is 10 percent lower sales and a 5 percent reduction in gross margin. At that point, the stock would be trading on 20x multiples—theoretically. Actually, it is unlikely the stock would trade on 20x. Much more likely it would derate to, say, 10x as lower growth expectations typically cause investors to lower the multiple they are willing to pay. This means you could lose 50 percent on your investment.. Keep in mind that to cause massive losses for its investors, a company does not have to disappear or die, it just needs to disappoint
60 Is the stock trading above, at, or below its intrinsic value? Everyone blithely skips that part. Quant doesn’t calculate it (“algorithms compute relative value not intrinsic value”), trend followers don’t care about it (“don’t let facts get in the way of a good momentum story”), growth investors rationalize it (“the high growth assumptions justify it”), and passive ignores it (“theirs not to question why, theirs but to do or die”).
7) Avoiding or abating the risk of large losses upfront means you save your hard-earned money and you do not need to hit a lot of home runs. Because the losses are small, you can easily offset them by hitting good singles..Risk management requires a contrarian bent of mind. It means that you must proactively seek out bad news and figure out what can go wrong, and you must do it before the horse leaves the barn. Nonetheless, many investors behave like daredevils, hoping for the best instead of preparing for the worst, as if some magical risk alert will go off a minute before midnight so they can wait to deal with it then. Think of risk management as an insurance policy: you need to buy it before the accident or catastrophe occurs, not after.
8) They(consumer staples investors) swapped earnings-volatility risk for stock-valuation risk. Risk is risk, no matter what label it wears. The goal of risk management is not to swap one form of risk for another, but to reduce or get rid of it, or at least get paid for it and not pay for it.
9) Non-consensus investing is about buying quality when it goes on sale, not buying junk at clearance prices...Captivity is not loyalty. High-quality businesses are those where customers willingly do business even if they could go elsewhere, because they are getting real value for their money...The value of the brand is implicitly captured in the revenues, earnings, and cash flows of the company, so the contribution is already embedded in the valuation of the firm...is this a high-quality business experiencing a tough time or a low-quality business experiencing a good time? The former is an opportunity; the latter is a red flag... despite being high-tech, petrochemical plants do not generate good returns on capital invested, which makes them low-quality businesses with poor value-creation prospects(as suppliers can provide the plant to ANYONE)
This entire review has been hidden because of spoilers.
March 1, 2020
Wasted the money for buying the book since it was recommended by Barron. I would say a few chapters are good, in the middle, where the reason for non-concensus investing was mentioned, it provided a new angle to read about market performance.
Bad part: the book seems to be an entry level introduction of basics of value discovering plus some behavioral psychology based investing. If you want that there are tons of blog posts that explains very well about those topics. The rest of the book were much of a cherry picking of author's past good ideas in global equities, and tons of self-promoting, plus bunch of active management promoting. It simply belittles passive investment without providing much of convincing reason. However, even for the active management there is little to learn.
Out of curiosity, I checked the author's performance as CIO of Ariel, the global equity performance was tremendously trailing the broad index. This discredit's of the author's cherry picking theory by active fund managers a lot.
At the end of the book, there is also a chapter of the empowerment of woman. I have no opinions towards any gender, although I think this part is quite of investment irrelevant.
I would rate two chapters 4 star and the rest 2 starts.
Bad part: the book seems to be an entry level introduction of basics of value discovering plus some behavioral psychology based investing. If you want that there are tons of blog posts that explains very well about those topics. The rest of the book were much of a cherry picking of author's past good ideas in global equities, and tons of self-promoting, plus bunch of active management promoting. It simply belittles passive investment without providing much of convincing reason. However, even for the active management there is little to learn.
Out of curiosity, I checked the author's performance as CIO of Ariel, the global equity performance was tremendously trailing the broad index. This discredit's of the author's cherry picking theory by active fund managers a lot.
At the end of the book, there is also a chapter of the empowerment of woman. I have no opinions towards any gender, although I think this part is quite of investment irrelevant.
I would rate two chapters 4 star and the rest 2 starts.
April 21, 2023
Finally a good investing book written by a girl. It wasn't at all obvious based on the name, but you know what this means. Female narrator for the audiobook, yay! I'm so happy when this happens. To say a few things about the book as well, it reminded me of Irrational Exuberance. I like books that make you question your approach. It's a proper reality check. I call myself a contrarian, yet the level of contrarianness in this book is truly something :D I mean I'm fine to buy Amazon when it's 50% off the peak but these hc contrarian value players might dig for deeper gold. It's like no matter what you currently do in the markets, you'll find something in this book that somehow manages to oppose it. Even based on the narrator's pleasantness alone I'd relisten: https://www.zehrajanenaqvi.com/ but the content is quite good as well. I kinda went thru it like a freight train, in 2-3 days, 2x speed, close to 10 hours as 5. Maybe slow it down a bit next time? This is a good quote:
“The non-consensus investor treats markets as a shopping mall where things periodically go on sale as opposed to an auction house where you must bid the highest price to get what you want.”
With a hint of market history, I learned to not chase stocks but wait for opportunities to come my way. I think that's deep and could be applied to other areas of life as well.
I liked how she shunned passive, bonds, and almost everything you could think of :D
"Spooked by the financial crisis of 2008, many investors have shunned equities due to their volatility and instead embraced bonds for their stability. My contrarian point of view is that not only could this bring disappointing returns, it may actually prove riskier."
I guess many people just see to hold them till maturity and happy with the return offered. But what's not obvious at first sight that they do have a price that fluctuates, so if you want your money sooner, and the prevailing rates are different, you might get the short end of the stick. Sure the same can be true for stocks, but they are not deemed as safe as bonds by the gen pop.
"Volatility is not the same as risk"
It's not often that I see my ideas matched, so another good point for the author. I could keep going, but I gotta leave something to add after my next listen.
“The non-consensus investor treats markets as a shopping mall where things periodically go on sale as opposed to an auction house where you must bid the highest price to get what you want.”
With a hint of market history, I learned to not chase stocks but wait for opportunities to come my way. I think that's deep and could be applied to other areas of life as well.
I liked how she shunned passive, bonds, and almost everything you could think of :D
"Spooked by the financial crisis of 2008, many investors have shunned equities due to their volatility and instead embraced bonds for their stability. My contrarian point of view is that not only could this bring disappointing returns, it may actually prove riskier."
I guess many people just see to hold them till maturity and happy with the return offered. But what's not obvious at first sight that they do have a price that fluctuates, so if you want your money sooner, and the prevailing rates are different, you might get the short end of the stick. Sure the same can be true for stocks, but they are not deemed as safe as bonds by the gen pop.
"Volatility is not the same as risk"
It's not often that I see my ideas matched, so another good point for the author. I could keep going, but I gotta leave something to add after my next listen.
January 28, 2021
Some good insights that in my opinion could be written in less pages. The author states that you should focuse on spotting equity opportunities where is not all the crowd overseeing. Price is what you pay, value is what you get.
Risk is not the same as volatility, the former does not affect the business fundamentals and its intrinsec value, the latter does.
Crowd use to buy when good news afloat and the share is already trading at a fair price.
Try to implement a investment strategy with a long term view.
A smart move is to align yourself with the market needs, which leads to fair-price discovery and reduces price distorsions.
P/E or P/B ratios doesn't tell you if the quaility of the underlying business is due to deteriorate.
The competitive advantage is not the holy grain. To be a high-quality business, it is not enough to beat the competition today but to remain competitive and dominant tomorrow. Companies that can lower costs and offer more with the same or better value proposition for less, may be the success stories of tomorrow.
Brand name is not as important as you believe. Lower branding costs enable lower prices despite the high quaility. Abercrombie is a example of a fashion brand name which did not offer anything better than the competition. His competitive edge was their brand name and tried to remain like that rising prices. Kodak also had a strong brand name.
Evaluating management teams is critical. Some of them are pursuing short-term KPIs to meet incentive compensation targets, at the expense of endangering long-term KPIs. Short-term strategies are trying to meet with the quarter EPS and the share price. That may hurt the long-term health of the company.
Free Cash Flow is usually spent by companies who lack of cutting-edge innovation to undergo acquisitions or mergers.
Try to find high-quality businesses when they go on sale.
Avoid bias in your research, seek to invalidate, not validate.
Buy a Depressed Market, not a Distressed Asset.
Mass tend to buy stocks where good news is playing out and priced in.
Risk is not the same as volatility, the former does not affect the business fundamentals and its intrinsec value, the latter does.
Crowd use to buy when good news afloat and the share is already trading at a fair price.
Try to implement a investment strategy with a long term view.
A smart move is to align yourself with the market needs, which leads to fair-price discovery and reduces price distorsions.
P/E or P/B ratios doesn't tell you if the quaility of the underlying business is due to deteriorate.
The competitive advantage is not the holy grain. To be a high-quality business, it is not enough to beat the competition today but to remain competitive and dominant tomorrow. Companies that can lower costs and offer more with the same or better value proposition for less, may be the success stories of tomorrow.
Brand name is not as important as you believe. Lower branding costs enable lower prices despite the high quaility. Abercrombie is a example of a fashion brand name which did not offer anything better than the competition. His competitive edge was their brand name and tried to remain like that rising prices. Kodak also had a strong brand name.
Evaluating management teams is critical. Some of them are pursuing short-term KPIs to meet incentive compensation targets, at the expense of endangering long-term KPIs. Short-term strategies are trying to meet with the quarter EPS and the share price. That may hurt the long-term health of the company.
Free Cash Flow is usually spent by companies who lack of cutting-edge innovation to undergo acquisitions or mergers.
Try to find high-quality businesses when they go on sale.
Avoid bias in your research, seek to invalidate, not validate.
Buy a Depressed Market, not a Distressed Asset.
Mass tend to buy stocks where good news is playing out and priced in.
December 23, 2023
In Non-Consensus Investing, Rupal Bhansali lays down the principles of contrarian investing. She reflects on her journey to become a fund manager, covering global stocks, her learnings, and triumphs along the way.
She advocates active investing and list out the facts against passive investing. She acknowledges that not everyone can outperform a passive index, but there are many who can. You may have to suffer years of underperformance to outperform in the long run (over a market cycle). She talks about the pitfalls to avoid and how to stand away from the crowd.
There is a reviewer here who is not ready to believe that a woman portfolio manager was able to avoid the hot stocks of the Asian crisis, the tech bubble, and the financial crisis. Her track record is available online if anybody wants to check. She was able to avoid those bubble and she also underperformed in the preceding years leading up to those bubbles. She has shared many of her mistakes in this book along with her big wins. When a portfolio manager for a long-term track record is writing a book, yes there will be some amount of chest-thumping. But that is like missing the signal for the noise.
This was an instructive book which looked at some of the main elements of investing from a differentiated point of view.
She advocates active investing and list out the facts against passive investing. She acknowledges that not everyone can outperform a passive index, but there are many who can. You may have to suffer years of underperformance to outperform in the long run (over a market cycle). She talks about the pitfalls to avoid and how to stand away from the crowd.
There is a reviewer here who is not ready to believe that a woman portfolio manager was able to avoid the hot stocks of the Asian crisis, the tech bubble, and the financial crisis. Her track record is available online if anybody wants to check. She was able to avoid those bubble and she also underperformed in the preceding years leading up to those bubbles. She has shared many of her mistakes in this book along with her big wins. When a portfolio manager for a long-term track record is writing a book, yes there will be some amount of chest-thumping. But that is like missing the signal for the noise.
This was an instructive book which looked at some of the main elements of investing from a differentiated point of view.
April 10, 2024
The investment world is indeed vast.
This is a great book for those who like "non-consensus investing", people who tend to go against the crowd. Some of the content in the book aligns with my investment views. Although I have been investing for a long time, in all sorts of assets from stocks, bonds, crypto, ETFs, to gold... there are many opinions of the author that I find very insightful and will bring into my research, trying to apply them to my investment method.
I recommend reading this book with an open mind. The key takeaway is the value of having a unique investment perspective, rather than just following the crowd.
Don't be like others who only care about investment results, for example, the guy reviewing AAPL stock above, clearly did not read the book carefully because the author says that in investing, no one makes a 100% perfect decision, she will definitely make mistakes but will take those mistakes as lessons.
If your goal is to consistently outperform the market, this might not be the book for you. However, it offers valuable lessons for those willing to think differently about their investment strategies.
This is a great book for those who like "non-consensus investing", people who tend to go against the crowd. Some of the content in the book aligns with my investment views. Although I have been investing for a long time, in all sorts of assets from stocks, bonds, crypto, ETFs, to gold... there are many opinions of the author that I find very insightful and will bring into my research, trying to apply them to my investment method.
I recommend reading this book with an open mind. The key takeaway is the value of having a unique investment perspective, rather than just following the crowd.
Don't be like others who only care about investment results, for example, the guy reviewing AAPL stock above, clearly did not read the book carefully because the author says that in investing, no one makes a 100% perfect decision, she will definitely make mistakes but will take those mistakes as lessons.
If your goal is to consistently outperform the market, this might not be the book for you. However, it offers valuable lessons for those willing to think differently about their investment strategies.
August 30, 2023
Spends too long on commonplace and obvious points, like the need to buy low and sell high, and on making the case for active management when it ought to be assumed that anyone buying a book like this is already convinced. Spends too little time on its more original points about misperceptions of what makes a company high-quality and what qualitative rather than quantitative factors could be important in that regard. It also undermines itself somewhat by using Apple as a case study of a company it might be unwise to invest in - this was in 2019, since when Apple has quadrupled. This could have been a much better book if someone had guided it away from its simplicities and indulgences and towards more detail on its novelties. Sadly, it's instead shallow and not very helpful.
February 16, 2020
An entertaining and easy read. The author lays out her approach to value investing with good practical examples from her career and easy to understand concepts. No formulas or quantitative aspects are discussed in the book. The author emphasises the importance of being contrarian and selective to avoid investment mistakes while simultaneously finding the best opportunities. It is a good read for those entering the world of value investing.
August 29, 2020
Smart advice and good, real world examples to illustrate
A good investing book with smart advice whether you plan to search for "non-consensus" investments or not. I can't imagine most investors would have the skill or the time to implement these ideas but a its a good reminder of what to look for from an investment advisor.
A good investing book with smart advice whether you plan to search for "non-consensus" investments or not. I can't imagine most investors would have the skill or the time to implement these ideas but a its a good reminder of what to look for from an investment advisor.
September 24, 2021
A personal journey but not very enlightening.
February 9, 2024
Has some helpful insights
May 20, 2025
Some insightful tips, worth a read
October 8, 2025
3.5 stars.
Not much new for people in the business of investing. However, it included several reminders for aspiring active managers.
Not much new for people in the business of investing. However, it included several reminders for aspiring active managers.
Displaying 1 - 14 of 14 reviews