Richard Rhodes has published two previous books, about the making of the Atomic Bomb and the making of the Hydrogen Bomb. Implicit in these subjects is the question of what happened after the events which brought these weapons of mass destruction into the world. The ensuing buildup of nuclear arsenals by the United States and the Soviet Union was the most significant development. Rhodes explores that subject in the current book. The main theme concerns the challenges of the Cold War from 1949 to the dissolution of the Soviet Union in December, 1991. Prominent is the Reagan-Gorbachev decade of the 1980's. Rhodes has a fourth book in this series completed and ready for publication in August 2010: "The Twilight of the Bombs", covering the post Cold War years. Current concerns are covered, including the former Soviet nuclear arsenal, nuclear proliferation, and North Korea.
The title "Arsenals of Folly" is Rhodes' recognition that he considers the direction taken by both superpowers for 42 years to be misguided, wasteful, and ultimately highly risky. The populace of both nations paid the bills for this massive military machinery through direct taxation and, indirectly, through huge deflections of funds from civilian needs in education, health, and city and transportation infrastructures. Forces in effect in both nations drove armament expenditures to levels far and above the need to deter the other from initiating nuclear hostilities.
Rhodes explains how the Soviet bureaucratic "perpetual-motion machine" ceaselessly turned out weapons in numbers far exceeding any defensive need. Don't be mistaken; the Soviet government wanted to have their own nuclear weapons to match those built in the United States, and wanted to be a nuclear power. However, as far back as Khruschev, Rhodes notes, there was high-level speculation about how ruinous it would be to use these weapons in a hot war (I guess this realization occurred sometime after Khruschev engaged in continued nuclear atmospheric testing and the placing of nuclear tipped missiles in Cuba?). The Soviet Union's centralized dominance of the economy by the military, however, assured that conventional and nuclear weapons would continue to be produced without question until, in 1985, when Gorbachev took over as General Secretary of the Politburo, the total world stockpile of nuclear weapons would exceed 50,000 bombs and warheads.
The United States never trailed in weapons production, but the nation's nuclear weapons laboratories were kept busy meeting the apparent prudent tendency which mirrored our Soviet counterparts in piling (potential) destruction upon destruction in the hope that enough would be sufficient. Rhodes does not hesitate to ascribe blame for the application of constant pressure of American stockpiling on the hardliners who whipped up fears within and outside the government.
The first significant blow to rationality in nuclear arming was the document prepared by Paul Nitze in order to give President Harry Truman's Secretary of State Dean Acheson a means of threatening the post-World War II Soviet leadership from taking over Europe, and preventing the possibility of Germany rearming. "NSC-68" used the technique of "threat inflation" to "bludgeon" the collective minds of U.S. government military decision-makers into authorizing perpetual nuclear bomb stockpiling. NSC-68 set the philosophic tone of American Cold War rhetoric with its absolutes about the threat of annihilation looming from the Soviet Union's fanatical faith in the need to dominate the rest of the world. Harry Truman endorsed NSC-68 only after the scare of Soviet influence in Asia connected with the start of the Korean War caused U.S. defense expenditures to increase. The real legacy of NSC-68, Rhodes states, is the way it and the events in Korea caused the United States to follow the Soviets in defense procurement, that is, by uncoupling the defense budget from fiscal policy. Hereafter, the needs for armament would be assessed, then the money would be spent to meet the needs.
Nitze continued working in government under administrations of both parties. His next huge influence in policy occurred in his fight against those who wanted to scuttle an Anti Ballistic Missile (ABM) system which would be deployed with the idea of keeping open the possibility of limited nuclear war. Nitze saw this resistance, which included scientific and military experts, to be tantamount to proposing surrender. Since, by 1969, he was out of government, he developed a committee of young and talented academics to be the policy-developers for influencing public opinion and lobbying government to maintain a strong nuclear posture, including opposition to the Nixon-Kissinger move toward detente with the Soviet Union. Rhodes called these individuals the "Sorcerers Apprentices", whose "trail of wreckage extends well into the present century" [p. 111:]. These future neoconservatives were Peter Wilson, Paul Wolfowitz, and Richard Perle. Perle was especially seen as an up-and-comer, after winning a position on the staff of Democratic hawk senator Henry "Scoop" Jackson.
The militant conservatives affected foreign policy in the 1970's with two initiatives. The first resulted in Gerald Ford's administration when an ever-compliant CIA Director, George H.W. Bush, with White House Chief of Staff Richard Cheney's instrumental support, agreed to allow outside panels comprised of conservative nuclear hawks to submit intelligence assessments. These "Team B" assessments would differ from the CIA's in-house "Team A" assessments by significantly underestimating the destructiveness of nuclear weapons, in essence "conventionalizing" nuclear war. Their scientific guru was Edward Teller, the Manhattan Project scientist who influenced the government into building the hydrogen bomb. Teller, and the Team B leader, Richard Pipes, steered their group into advocating "deterrence through strength" [p. 123:], in contrast to Hans Bethe and other scientists who had advocated "deterrence through agreement" and who believed the destructiveness of nuclear weapons allowed them to deter war by being present in low numbers.
Bush's audacious method of allowing a politically motivated assessment team to undermine his own agency's staff was rejected by incoming President Jimmy Carter. The conservatives now adopted a strategy offered by Eugene Rostow, by forming a bipartisan citizens' lobby to fight detente, which was favored by Carter. The Committee on the Present Danger [CPD:] included Rostow, Nitze, Pipes, Dean Rusk, Richard Allen (a future Reagan national security adviser), future CIA director William Casey, future Reagan U.N. ambassador Jeanne Kirkpatrick, Teller, and, later, Ronald Reagan, among others.
All of the above serves as prelude to the heart of the book, which describes the often testy, but ultimately friendly relationship between Ronald Reagan and Mikhail Gorbachev. Both had an instinctive abhorrence of the prospect of nuclear war.
The Soviet Union was in significant trouble by the mid-1980's and was in real danger of collapsing. This gave Gorbachev motivation to want to discuss treaties to limit arms building. This knowledge was lost to the intelligence community and the public, according to Rhodes, due to the false information being distributed through Team B and CPD. Reagan and Gorbachev had, however, met in Geneva in November, 1985, for their first attempt at discussing their security concerns. This meeting ended in frustration to both parties because the talks became stalled over Reagan's insistence for the right of the United States to build a Strategic Defense Initiative {SDI], or "Star Wars." Gorbachev protested that this theoretical defense system could be the basis of a new arms race in space. The following year, after the explosion of Reactor # 4 at Chernobyl, Gorbachev proposed a follow-up meeting in Reykjavik, Iceland. Gorbachev vehemently tried to extricate SDI from an ambitious proposal he made to Reagan for total nuclear disarmament by the year 2000, even offering finally to allow SDI to proceed in laboratory testing. Reagan, who had originally learned about the theoretical possibility of directed-energy devices such as lasers, particle accelerators and microwave beams from Edward Teller in 1967, insured that the Reykjavik talks would end in anger and frustration when he followed advisor Richard Perle's advice to maintain his position on this unrealistic concept.
Rhodes has contempt for the "warrior intellectuals" and other policy wonks who have dominated dialogue of nuclear policy in both countries due to the inability of the political leaders to match their depth of knowledge about the numbers and capabilities of numerous delivery systems, missile throw-weights, and the like. He gives a lot of credit to Gorbachev for influencing the negotiating process to move beyond the stalemates that have characterized previous talks. Rhodes takes a lot of heat from mostly conservative critics who accuse him of being infatuated with this former disciple of Yuri Andropov. However, Gorbachev's adoption of Willy Brandt's "Ostpolitik" 1960's-70's program in West Germany became influential in his ability to make progress in moving to reductions in the nuclear threat of the Cold War. In Gorbachav's interpretation of this concept, the task of insuring safety must be resolved politically, not by war or deterrence. It is guaranteed by the lowest, not the highest level of strategic balance, where WMD are entirely excluded.
A real dialog occurred with the U.S. when the hawkish John Poindexter, Perle, and Caspar Weinberger were replaced by Frank Carlucci and Colin Powell after Reagan's shameful Iran-Contra scandal. Secretary of State George Shultz gained the leverage to engage Gorbachev in negotiations which led to the signing of the INF treaty by Reagan and Gorbachev in the White House in late 1987. This treaty outlawed an entire category of nuclear weapons (Intermediate Nuclear Forces) by both sides in Europe. These weapons had been a direct threat at the populace of both the Western European democracies and the Warsaw Pact countries.
If political solutions were necessary for finding ways for peaceful coexistence in the nuclear age, it is perhaps not so surprising that this book shows Rhodes' political bias much more than in earlier books. He brings out the facts of the political maneuverings which brought so many of the conservatives and their progeny, the neocons, and their personal agendas to prominence. Sometimes he is very obvious, however, in his personal assessment of their motives, as in the linking of the influence over the CIA by the outside "B" teams with the neocons' misuse of the CIA in the runup to the Gulf War in 2003. In another instance, he relates the attempts of Gorbachev to get his "new thinking" translated into dialog with the U.S. in the Bush 41 administration, when Secretary of Defense Cheney joined up with Paul Wolfowitz' deputies to try to keep skeptical of Gorbachev's motives and push for regime change in the Soviet Union, foreshadowing Bush 43's rhetoric in Iraq in 2004. Nevertheless, the landmark Conventional Forces in Europe (CFE) Treaty took place at this time. This treaty required the limiting of NATO and Warsaw Pact conventional military hardware to equivalent levels, meaning in practical terms that whole divisions of Warsaw Pact tanks, artillery and other weapons were scrapped. Rhodes rightly calls this a central pillar (along with INF obviously) of European security.
A way had been found by the two presidents, Bush 41 and Gorbachev, to see eye to eye on committing to important steps toward eventual disarmament, despite the awkward first steps at Geneva and Reykjavik, and political pressures at home in Washington and Moscow. The last chapter is still to be written on the process begun in July, 1991, when Bush and Gorbachev signed START I. The result was an agreement by both countries to limit themselves to 6,000 verifyable nuclear warheads and 1,600 nuclear delivery vehicles each. The complete threat of nuclear war was lessened considerably by this treaty, and by the ultimate dissolution of the Soviet Union. Ronald Reagan's apologists have created a mythology which gives Reagan credit for bringing about the collapse of the U.S.S.R. through unrelenting pressure to spend the "Evil Empire's" final resources to vainly try to maintain military parity with the United States. Rhodes shows how internal pressures in the Soviet Union, fueled by nationalism and ethnic identity, pulled the old order apart. As far as spending the Russians into poverty, Rhodes shows that the U.S.S.R. had completed its arms buildup of the 1970's before Reagan's presidency in 1981, and that Reagan's unprecedented peacetime trillion dollar defense budget created extreme economic hardship in the United States rather than the U.S.S.R. Obviously, this issue will be argued for a long time to come. Rhodes contributes to this debate by challenging what previously was common knowledge and adding fresh analysis to this era of American history.