From Tulips to Bitcoins: A History of Fortunes Made and Lost in Commodity Markets

by Torsten Dennin

Four Centuries of Speculation and Commodity Markets From Tulips to Bitcoins is a fascinating look at big events in commodity and crypto markets from the Dutch Tulip Mania to Bitcoins today. It covers the Silver Thursday and the Hunt Brothers, the doom of Amaranth Advisors and Brian Hunter, Copper and the Congo, Gold, Rare Earths, Energy Metals, and Bitcoins, which rose from below 1,000 USD to above 20,000 USD within a year. These markets are on a crossroad of investing mega trends like demographics, climate change, electrification, and digitalization. By studying and learning from our past, we can make better decisions about the future. As Benjamin Franklin said, “An investment in knowledge pays the best interest.”

Genres: History and Politics, Economics

348 pages, Kindle Edition

Published June 4, 2019

Reviews

[Mohamad Elayan · Rating 4 out of 5]

والله الكتاب روعة مستمتع فيه لدرجة خيالية

طبعا ، الكتاب عبارة عن سرد لقصص تاريخية عن غباء البشر وكيف أنه في كل فترة تخرج ظاهرة يتعلق البشر بها بطريقة رهيبة املا من تحقيق الثراء و ماهي الا فترة و ينهار كل شيء و يكون صاحب الفكرة أو المؤسس هو المستفيد و البقية ضحايا للاحلام الوردية .

الكتاب لا يعتبر اقتصادي و انما تاريخي يسرد فيه طمع الناس و الهوس بتحقيق الثراء و الربح السريع .
هذا الكتاب يمكن تلخيصه بعبارة أن التاريخ يعيد نفسه لكن بشكل مختلف ويحذر الكتاب من سوق المال الجديد البتكوين ويوضح أن معظم الإنهيارات الاقتصادية جائت بعد ٣-٥ سنوات . أما الآن فنحن مقبلين على شيء أكثر فظاعة مما سبق و يذكر أن سوق البتكوين (سعر العملة) اغلق في عام ٢٠١٧ على سعر ١٩ الف دولار و مع بداية السنة ٢٠١٨ انهار سعر البتكوين ليصل إلى ٧٠٠٠ دولار و هذا بحد ذاته سيناريو مرعب لم يحدث منذ ١٠٠ عام في وقت الانهيار العظيم.

ممكن الكتاب عند المجتمع الغربي معظم قصصه معروفة لكن في عالمنا العربي لم اسمع عن أي قصة ذكرت في مناهج الاقتصاد وكتبنا و هذا إن دل يدل على جهل مؤلفاتنا بمثل هذه الأمور القيمة و التي تثري عقلية طلاب الاقتصاد وكليات الأعمال .

لك الله يا تعليمنا العربي

[Alexandra · Rating 3 out of 5]

[RO] Admit că e un text plin de informații interesante despre cum a decurs istoria financiară a lumii. E o colecție de povești despre marile boom-uri ale lumii, despre marile prăbușiri, despre câștiguri imense și pierderi la fel. În general se discută despre trade, stock market, companii și corporații multinaționale, dar nu numai. Despre influențe politice, de mediu, sociale și alte aspecte ale umanității.
Dau minus 2 stele fiindcă e repetitivă. Undeva aproape de jumătatea cărții, mi-am dat seama că poveștile sunt cam pe aceeași structură, se schimbă doar câteva variabile - compania, anul, suma de creștere/pierdere, locația evenimentului, materia despre care se vorbește. Chiar dacă mai sunt și mărunte detalii de context care fac lectura mai delicioasă, am decis ca de la jumătatea cărții să continui cu a citi doar partea de sfârșit a fiecărei povești, din bulinele etichetate cu ”Idei principale”. Cu riscul că am pierdut anumite detalii, simt că am câștigat totuși o valoare aproximativ egală și că am putut considera lectura finalizată, fără a mă plictisi prea tare.

[Philip · Rating 2 out of 5]

I quit reading. The author should have done less chapters and went more in depth. The basis of each example is the same. Someone tried to corner the market. There was a buying frenzy. Then there was a collapse. There isn’t much to learn without going more in depth on strategy.

[Vinícius Rodrigues · Rating 2 out of 5]

Poor review of financial bubbles and a very confusing definition of which events are considered as bubbles.

[Naessens · Rating 2 out of 5]

In this book, 42 historical examples of dramatic price evolution in commodity markets are told in chronological order, starting with the Great Tulip Mania in Holland in the seventeenth century and finishing with the recent blockchain and cryptocurrency craze.

These examples can be grouped in 3 categories based on their mechanism :
- market fluctuation due to a "natural" reason : a sudden imbalance in the supply and demand, generally for climatic reasons, caused a huge raise or drop in market price ;
- one or more people tried to corner the market (it did not necessary involve buying or selling futures) ;
- someone betted on the evolution of the price by taking a short or long position on futures.
Unfortunately, this third type of examples are rarely explained in details and it is often not cleared how the person took advantage of the price evolution or on the contrary got ruined. The author could have explained how the position evolved through time depending both on the spot price and on the futures price and whether the position was short or long. For instance, the evolution of the margin calls would have helped to better understand the evolution of the holder's financial balance.
Moreover, I find the evolution of future prices or the reason for a change of contango/backwardation state could have been more detailed too.

On the whole, the historical examples are well-chosen and interesting, but I wish the book were more detailed.

[Dеnnis]

Истории золотых лихорадок в Калифорнии и на Аляске, тюльпановых спекуляций в Голландии XVII века часто встречаются и в популярной литературе, и в пособиях для инвесторов. В этой книге 42 примера заработанных и потерянных на инвестициях состояний, и лишь восемь из них старше 50 лет. Интенсив открывает разогрев мирового рынка пшеницы Советским Союзом в 1972 году, в результате чего 23-летний трейдер Ричард Деннис сколотил сотни миллионов долларов. Автор профессор Торстен Деннин не только преподает экономику, но и практикует: он глава швейцарского инвестфонда, специализирующегося на товарно-сырьевых ресурсах и полезных ископаемых. Поэтому понимает, что стародавние истории — это неплохо, но примеры из современности куда полезнее: были цветочки, но ягодки-биткоины актуальнее.

[Lan-Anh (Vivian) · Rating 3 out of 5]

This book is more of history than finance, with examples of "bubbles" in commodity markets. Starting with Tulip Mania in Holland (17th century), the author classifies "bubbles" into 3 groups:
- a sudden imbalance in the supply and demand, causing a significant increase or drop in market price
- a person or a group of people tried to corner the market
- someone takes a short or long position on futures

Though the recent blockchain and cryptocurrency FOMO (2017) are not discussed in detail, I enjoyed learning the historical events: Rockefeller and Standard Oil (1870), Crude Oil: The Return of the “Seven Sisters” (2007), etc.

[Frank Pernett · Rating 4 out of 5]

I see this book more on the historical side rather than financial. It’s a good recap of economic hallmarks. I really enjoyed

[Agustin · Rating 5 out of 5]

El primer libro que me atrapo sobre finanzas, redacta la historia de las burbujas/eventos mas importantes en la historia financiera del mundo.

[Sougeitu · Rating 2 out of 5]

看目錄自己去搜就行，沒必要買的一本書。