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The Kids Are All Left: How Young Voters Will Unite America
A brewing generational shift is about to change politics—and our country—forever. A demographic apocalypse is coming for the Republican Party. The surge in young voters for Biden in 2020 was only the beginning. Not only do they overwhelmingly favor the left, but the margins are at such an unprecedented and overwhelming scale that these voters are poised to end the partisan gridlock that has characterized politics for over thirty years. In The Kids Are All Left, political scientist David Faris proves beyond any doubt that this isn't just a typical generational trend that will even out over time and explores the policy transformations that young Americans will pursue. He offers hope for an escape from the political stalemate that has twice this century sent the loser of the popular vote to the White House, but he is realistic about the institutional obstacles that stand between voters and true majority rule. The result is a first look at what America[1] n politics will look like in the 21st century.
- GenresPoliticsNonfiction
220 pages, Kindle Edition
First published June 30, 2020
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Displaying 1 - 5 of 5 reviews
August 3, 2020
Demography is destiny, and that applies to political parties.
Predictions of demographic doom for the GOP have been around for some time. In The Emerging Democratic Majority (2002), for example, two political scientists claimed the Republican era was over and a major realignment was certain within the decade. Obviously that prediction of GOP demise was greatly premature.
In The Kids Are All Left, David Faris announces that the time of transition has finally arrived. Based upon polls all year, he may be right.
Faris has a simple thesis: The GOP base is predominantly older, while younger Americans much prefer the Democrats. Day by day demographic replacement is underway as older voters die and are replaced by young adults.
Since 2002, a growing majority of young adults has consistently opted for politics to the left of the GOP. "Young people are voting Democratic at a scale and duration that is totally unprecedented in the modern polling era." One example came in 2018, when young Texans voted for Senate candidate Beto O’Rourke over Republican Ted Cruz by a whopping 42 points (71–29).
Consequently, the GOP is now losing voters between ages 18-44. If this pattern persists for another 20 years, then the GOP would lose voters under 65. If this happens, there will be one-party domination for at least a generation. The voting pattern adopted as a young adult, after all, is usually persistent for a lifetime.
"The Republican Party is well and completely screwed if they don’t start making inroads with young voters, people of color, and women—and soon. This trend, if it continues (and it looks like it will), might blow apart the long stalemate in American politics and either force the GOP to the left or consign it to a generation as a distinct national minority party."
Like Ezra Klein in Why We're Polarized (2020, Simon & Schuster), Faris concludes that our growing polarization will not spontaneously decline in the near term. What will defuse it is when one party wins a series of decisive national victories. When the losing side has poor prospects of regaining power, it eventually accommodates itself to the new reality as the minority party. To have influence, it needs to cooperate rather than to demonize and obstruct the opposition.
Obstruction makes political sense only when there's a closely divided electorate. One party dominance means a return to less polarization where the parties can again work together as they did in the from the 1940s -1980s.
The Republican hope is that young adults will become more conservative as they age.There are committed partisans who switch parties, as Ronald Reagan and Donald Trump did in their 50s and 60s respectively, and as this reviewer did at age 57 when I walked across the aisle in the Illinois House.
Given current polarization, however, party preference is stronger than it used to be. The data show that most people do not change parties with age; on the contrary, people tend to become more intense partisans over time. "Most people’s partisan preferences harden in early adulthood, and children tend to inherit their parents’ partisan preferences—as long as both parents share it."
The prospects are that adults currently under age 44 will mostly remain on the left, and will pass on their party loyalty to their children, 75 percent of whom follow their parents when mother and father have the same partisan leaning.
The result of future elections will be determined by the steady, ineluctable racial change occurring in the United States. Each day the white proportion of the population shrinks a little more. That is a death sentence for a party that is almost all white.
Other significant trends working against the GOP are a long-term decline in religiosity and a steady increase in the proportion of Americans with college degrees. Since the GOP has tied itself so closely to white evangelicals, this can alienate the growing proportion of unchurched Americans. Meanwhile white evangelicals are steadily shrinking as a percent of the population, as well documented in The End of White Christian America by Robert P. Jones. Since people with college degress are more likely to vote Democratic, the growing proportion of college grads in the electorate is more bad news.
In addition to the youth factor, Republicans face rapidly growing groups that vote against the GOP by a margin of 2 to 1 -- Latinx and Asian Americans. Trump's harsh policy and tone against immigrants reinforces the strong preference for Democrats among immigrant citizens and their children.
Why did young Americans move to the left? Policy matters: Younger Americans strongly favor the Democratic positions on LGBT rights, national health care, anti-interventionism in foreign policy, climate change, and cannabis legalization.
Another factor us that young adults are less well off financially than were Gen Xers and boomers at the same ages. They have much more college debt, and are more likely to be living with parents and less likely to own a home. The net worth of millenial households is 20-40 percent less than it was for boomers and Gen Xers. The GOP is "on the wrong side of millennial and Gen Z economic interests."
The GOP even has trouble with young Republicans, who are significantly less supportive of Trump than older Republicans, and who disagree with their party on race and climate change, among other issues, moreso than mature members. For intance, 39 percent disapprove of Trump's handling of climate change. Most young Republicans do not watch Fox News. Some have left the party due to Trump.
Can the predicted progressive majority be stopped? Trends can change, but AmerIca isn't likely to become more white, more rural, or more religious, all of which bodes badly for the GOP.
The data suggest we are on the verge of an era of one-party dominance like the period from 1932 to 1968 where changes in control of the federal government will become less frequent. The Democratic dominance will probably last as long as the left-leaning generations born since 1981.
Under current Senate rules, however, Republicans could engage in a long-term defensive operation to thwart progressive legislation.
The Senate is the world's most malaportioned legislative body. It favors the GOP by giving the smallest state in population the same number of senators as the largest state. Since there are more small states, and since most are whiter than the nation, the GOP has the edge.
Faris has a solution to break the GOP minority grip on power via the Senate. First, Democrats should kill the filibuster asap; failure to do so would cripple the Democratic agenda. Next, they should admit D.C. and Puerto Rico as states. If Democratic leadership is too timid to take these steps, they can kiss the progressive agenda good-bye, except what can be temporarily accomplished via executive orders.
This book is a fast read about the
pending demographic apocalypse facing the Republican Party. It is persuasive case that the GOP must change or die. ###
Predictions of demographic doom for the GOP have been around for some time. In The Emerging Democratic Majority (2002), for example, two political scientists claimed the Republican era was over and a major realignment was certain within the decade. Obviously that prediction of GOP demise was greatly premature.
In The Kids Are All Left, David Faris announces that the time of transition has finally arrived. Based upon polls all year, he may be right.
Faris has a simple thesis: The GOP base is predominantly older, while younger Americans much prefer the Democrats. Day by day demographic replacement is underway as older voters die and are replaced by young adults.
Since 2002, a growing majority of young adults has consistently opted for politics to the left of the GOP. "Young people are voting Democratic at a scale and duration that is totally unprecedented in the modern polling era." One example came in 2018, when young Texans voted for Senate candidate Beto O’Rourke over Republican Ted Cruz by a whopping 42 points (71–29).
Consequently, the GOP is now losing voters between ages 18-44. If this pattern persists for another 20 years, then the GOP would lose voters under 65. If this happens, there will be one-party domination for at least a generation. The voting pattern adopted as a young adult, after all, is usually persistent for a lifetime.
"The Republican Party is well and completely screwed if they don’t start making inroads with young voters, people of color, and women—and soon. This trend, if it continues (and it looks like it will), might blow apart the long stalemate in American politics and either force the GOP to the left or consign it to a generation as a distinct national minority party."
Like Ezra Klein in Why We're Polarized (2020, Simon & Schuster), Faris concludes that our growing polarization will not spontaneously decline in the near term. What will defuse it is when one party wins a series of decisive national victories. When the losing side has poor prospects of regaining power, it eventually accommodates itself to the new reality as the minority party. To have influence, it needs to cooperate rather than to demonize and obstruct the opposition.
Obstruction makes political sense only when there's a closely divided electorate. One party dominance means a return to less polarization where the parties can again work together as they did in the from the 1940s -1980s.
The Republican hope is that young adults will become more conservative as they age.There are committed partisans who switch parties, as Ronald Reagan and Donald Trump did in their 50s and 60s respectively, and as this reviewer did at age 57 when I walked across the aisle in the Illinois House.
Given current polarization, however, party preference is stronger than it used to be. The data show that most people do not change parties with age; on the contrary, people tend to become more intense partisans over time. "Most people’s partisan preferences harden in early adulthood, and children tend to inherit their parents’ partisan preferences—as long as both parents share it."
The prospects are that adults currently under age 44 will mostly remain on the left, and will pass on their party loyalty to their children, 75 percent of whom follow their parents when mother and father have the same partisan leaning.
The result of future elections will be determined by the steady, ineluctable racial change occurring in the United States. Each day the white proportion of the population shrinks a little more. That is a death sentence for a party that is almost all white.
Other significant trends working against the GOP are a long-term decline in religiosity and a steady increase in the proportion of Americans with college degrees. Since the GOP has tied itself so closely to white evangelicals, this can alienate the growing proportion of unchurched Americans. Meanwhile white evangelicals are steadily shrinking as a percent of the population, as well documented in The End of White Christian America by Robert P. Jones. Since people with college degress are more likely to vote Democratic, the growing proportion of college grads in the electorate is more bad news.
In addition to the youth factor, Republicans face rapidly growing groups that vote against the GOP by a margin of 2 to 1 -- Latinx and Asian Americans. Trump's harsh policy and tone against immigrants reinforces the strong preference for Democrats among immigrant citizens and their children.
Why did young Americans move to the left? Policy matters: Younger Americans strongly favor the Democratic positions on LGBT rights, national health care, anti-interventionism in foreign policy, climate change, and cannabis legalization.
Another factor us that young adults are less well off financially than were Gen Xers and boomers at the same ages. They have much more college debt, and are more likely to be living with parents and less likely to own a home. The net worth of millenial households is 20-40 percent less than it was for boomers and Gen Xers. The GOP is "on the wrong side of millennial and Gen Z economic interests."
The GOP even has trouble with young Republicans, who are significantly less supportive of Trump than older Republicans, and who disagree with their party on race and climate change, among other issues, moreso than mature members. For intance, 39 percent disapprove of Trump's handling of climate change. Most young Republicans do not watch Fox News. Some have left the party due to Trump.
Can the predicted progressive majority be stopped? Trends can change, but AmerIca isn't likely to become more white, more rural, or more religious, all of which bodes badly for the GOP.
The data suggest we are on the verge of an era of one-party dominance like the period from 1932 to 1968 where changes in control of the federal government will become less frequent. The Democratic dominance will probably last as long as the left-leaning generations born since 1981.
Under current Senate rules, however, Republicans could engage in a long-term defensive operation to thwart progressive legislation.
The Senate is the world's most malaportioned legislative body. It favors the GOP by giving the smallest state in population the same number of senators as the largest state. Since there are more small states, and since most are whiter than the nation, the GOP has the edge.
Faris has a solution to break the GOP minority grip on power via the Senate. First, Democrats should kill the filibuster asap; failure to do so would cripple the Democratic agenda. Next, they should admit D.C. and Puerto Rico as states. If Democratic leadership is too timid to take these steps, they can kiss the progressive agenda good-bye, except what can be temporarily accomplished via executive orders.
This book is a fast read about the
pending demographic apocalypse facing the Republican Party. It is persuasive case that the GOP must change or die. ###
July 4, 2020
Faris produces a compelling argument that the younger generation is more liberal than the older and that this is unlikely to change as they age. What I believe Faris overstates is why this is bad for the Republican Party. Faris does acknowledge towards the end that a more left younger generation may not lead to Democrat victories if the Democrats’ inability to govern or inability to enact progressive enough policies may turn off these left youngsters. I would like to have seen these dissenting arguments that a progressive younger generation may not hurt the GOP that much brought into more of the narrative.
October 23, 2020
Millennials and Gen Z are not only majority liberal, we’re actually even more liberal than previous generations’ young people were. Even millennial and Gen Z republicans tend to be substantially more liberal than, say, Boomer republicans. And that thing your older relatives like to say about how “you’ll get more conservative as you get older” is not true (at least not in any statistically significant way), so we’re likely to keep voting blue for years to come. All of this means that the Republican Party is in its way out unless it undergoes a HUGE rebrand - or, y’know, continues chipping away at democracy to stay in power despite not representing the majority of the population. We’ll see.
November 3, 2022
Children are usually pretty stupid and will opt for ice cream for meals. So it is no surprise they would be fooled by the "free money" scams of the left. The Left would have children voting if they could. But for some reason, they want alcohol, tobacco and firearm purchases to be prohibited before 21. What does that tell you? Problem with folks like "David" here is that people get wiser and more conservative as they age while "David" does a static analysis.
July 25, 2020
Faris throws around lots of labels and generalizations. Few numbers or examples support his claims.
This book supports his previous title about "It's Time to Fight Dirty". This book is full of dirty statements and unfinished ideas. I will avoid books from David Faris in the future.
This book supports his previous title about "It's Time to Fight Dirty". This book is full of dirty statements and unfinished ideas. I will avoid books from David Faris in the future.
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