Uncertain Democracy: U.S. Foreign Policy and Georgia's Rose Revolution

by Lincoln A. Mitchell

In November of 2003, a stolen election in the former Soviet republic of Georgia led to protests and the eventual resignation of President Eduard Shevardnadze. Shevardnadze was replaced by a democratically elected government led by President Mikheil Saakashvili, who pledged to rebuild Georgia, orient it toward the West, and develop a European-style democracy. Known as the Rose Revolution, this early twenty-first-century democratic movement was only one of the so-called color revolutions (Orange in Ukraine, Tulip in Kyrgyzstan, and Cedar in Lebanon). What made democratic revolution in Georgia thrive when so many similar movements in the early part of the decade dissolved?

Lincoln A. Mitchell witnessed the Rose Revolution firsthand, even playing a role in its manifestation by working closely with key Georgian actors who brought about change. In Uncertain Democracy , Mitchell recounts the events that led to the overthrow of Shevardnadze and analyzes the factors that contributed to the staying power of the new regime. The book also explores the modest but indispensable role of the United States in contributing to the Rose Revolution and Georgia's failure to live up to its democratic promise.

Uncertain Democracy is the first scholarly examination of Georgia's recent political past. Drawing upon primary sources, secondary documents, and his own NGO experience, Mitchell presents a compelling case study of the effect of U.S. policy of promoting democracy abroad.

Genres: Politics

192 pages, Hardcover

First published December 1, 2008

About the author

Lincoln Mitchell is a political analyst, pundit and writer based in New York City and San Francisco. Lincoln works on democracy and governance related issues in the former Soviet Union, Eastern Europe, the Caribbean, the Middle East, Africa and Asia. He also works with businesses and NGOs globally, particularly in the former Soviet Union. Lincoln writes and speaks about US politics as well, and was the national political correspondent for The New York Observer from 2014-2016. Lincoln was on the faculty of Columbia University's School of International Affairs from 2006-2013 and retains an affiliation with Columbia's Arnold A. Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies. In addition, he worked for years as a political consultant advising and managing domestic political campaigns.

Dr. Mitchell is an accomplished scholar and writer whose current research includes democratic rollback in the US, US-Georgia relations, political development in the former Soviet Union, the role of democracy promotion in American foreign policy and baseball. He has written five books: first Uncertain Democracy: US Foreign Policy and Georgia’s Rose Revolution, (Penn Press 2008), The Color Revolutions, (Penn Press 2012), The Democracy Promotion Paradox (Brookings 2016), Will Big League Baseball Survive? Globalization, the End of Television, Youth Sports and the Future of Major League Baseball, (Temple University Press 2016) and Baseball Goes West: How the Dodgers and Giants Shaped the Major Leagues (Kent State University Press 2018). Dr. Mitchell has written articles on these topics in The National Interest, Orbis, The Moscow Times, the Washington Quarterly, The American Interest, The National Interest, Survival, the Central Asian Survey, World Affairs Journal, The New York Daily News and Current History as well as for numerous online publications including the online sections of The Washington Post, The New York Times. The Forward and Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, Eurasianet, and Transitions Online. Lincoln has been quoted extensively in most major American, Georgian and Russian newspapers and has appeared on numerous television and radio programs and podcasts including Fox and Friends, All Things Considered, Lou Dobbs, Al Jazeera English, Al Jazeera America, the Jim Lehrer Newshour, ABC Nightline, the Diane Rehm Show, Up and In: The Baseball Prospectus Podcast, the Cespedes Family Barbecast, Sports Byline and The BBC as well as in Russian and Georgian television. Lincoln also frequently blogs about American politics on several different online platforms.

Lincoln's current and recent clients include Freedom House, Democracy International, ARD/Tetratech, the Albright Stonebridge Group, the UNDP and DFID, the United Nations Democracy Fund, the National Democratic Institute for International Affairs, as well as several private businesses, political interests and investors working in the former Soviet Union.

Lincoln earned his BA from UC Santa Cruz and his Ph.D from Columbia University.

Reviews

[Matt · Rating 5 out of 5]

The book, mainly written in early 2008, looks at the background of the 2003-04 Rose Revolution in Georgia and the immediate aftermath, with Mitchell also discussing long-term prospects for Georgia as a democracy, while also noting US efforts to support this. As a former head of a major NGO that worked on promoting democracy in Georgia during the prelude to the Rose Revolution, Mitchell is well-versed in the issues that were at hand, and clearly goes over why Georgia was primed for this. He clarifies that things are not so black and white as "Shevardnadze bad, Saakashvili good" but that it's more grey than that: each president had positives and negatives, and this needs to be understood if one wants to properly understand the context of the country and its political state. With this in mind he also cautions the future of democracy in Georgia, noting that the US policy changes (considering the Rose Revolution as establishing democracy in Georgia and therefor not a top priority for their efforts anymore) should not end just because Saakashvili came to power. He further notes that without a strong foundation to ensure a smooth transition, Georgia could easily slide back to the type of semi-democratic state that it was under Shevardnadze; the succeeding years have proven him quite right in that. He also concludes with a brief (4.5 page) postscript on the 2008 Russo-Georgian War, noting that efforts to confront Russia (from both the US and Georgia) may not be the best way forward and only disrupt Russia's relationship with them; this unfortunately proved to be off the mark, despite the conventional wisdom of the time. For anyone looking to understand the background of the Rose Revolution it is a valuable book to read, and easy and short to go through as well.