從鄧小平到習近平

by David M. Lampton, 大衛·藍普頓, 林添貴 (Translator)

「二十一世紀是中國人的世紀」，許多人都聽過這句話，在近四十年前鄧小平啟動改革開放的時候，全世界──包括中國在內──都不相信中國有一天能與美國平起平坐。

如今，中國崛起已經成為不爭的事實，但繼之而來更大的問題則是：中國的國際地位日益上升，中國在全球的利益日益增長，中國內部的矛盾加劇，領導人掌握的權力相對薄弱。中國能否化解內部不斷蓄積的問題？中國能否規範自身的對外行為，負起大國應負的責任？

這個問題的後果，臺灣首當其衝；而亞洲是否趨於動盪，中美關係能否走向和緩，關鍵也繫於此。
要釐清、甚至解決這個問題，就得瞭解中國過去有什麼樣的領導人？他們種了什麼樹？留下什麼問題？目前
掌權的中國領導人面對什麼樣的局面？他們要如何與愈來愈複雜、愈來愈多元化的社會互動？

任教於約翰霍普金斯大學的藍普頓教授是全球公認的中國問題研究權威，在過去的近40年來，他對中華地區的領導人進行了558次訪談，對象從周恩來到習近平，層級從最高領導人到地方官員、企業主，每次訪談都經過詳細整理、分類、分析，成為藍普頓長期觀察中國變化的第一手資料，也是《從鄧小平到習近平》宏觀歸納、精闢分析的立論依據。

Genres: China, History, Politics, Nonfiction, Political Science, Asia

320 pages, Paperback

First published February 3, 2014

Reviews

[Hadrian · Rating 3 out of 5]

An impressive study of the views and concerns of the political elite in the People's Republic of China, based on some 500 interviews with top figures over four decades.

The book is divided into four parts. Part I is a brief history of Chinese politics from the death of Mao in 1976 until the time of the book's writing in the early 2010s. "[L]eaders count in explaining the behavior of states", and Lampton notes the trend of relative decline of a single figure at the top of the party, noting more of a collaboration and consensus-based style of leadership at the top. Part II is a closer look at the Chinese system of government, with a focus on how leadership styles and personalities contribute to policy-making. Part III looks at more specific issues, such as party-military relations, and negotiation styles, especially in foreign policy. There is also a section on "nightmares", or threats to domestic stability, such as mass unemployment or food insecurity. Part IV is a summary and restatement, and linking of the main ideas to specific issues.

Unfortunately, and this is not at all Lampton's fault, past trends did not indicate future performance. The trajectory of Chinese politics changed dramatically after 2016 with the ascension of Xi Jinping to the top leadership positions of the Chinese Communist Party. The premise of a more collaborationist and consensus-building leadership of the party did not hold. The dramatic changes which ensued instead, including the centralization of power, sweeping anti-corruption campaigns, military modernization, and a more assertive foreign policy, me. The closed nature of the party and the cultivation of a siege mentality means that communication with party leadership may be more difficult, if not impossible.

While I still admire much of what Lampton has done here, and that many parts of the book are still interesting - I must reluctantly point out that a lot of what is in here has primarily historical value.

[Adrian · Rating 5 out of 5]

As a frequent China watcher, and reader of various studies of Chinese politics, and modern Chinese history, I can faithfully say that this is not just "another" entry into the canon of literature, rather it is a study perhaps more penetrating than some of the other works out there.
This book examines the changing face of Chinese politics from the Deng era to the present (recent publication, late 2013 is useful) and covers how consensus based rule has evolved from strongman rule. Furthermore, greater insight into the policy making process is gained, as well as insights into certain key people.
Where the book goes beyond the usual literature is the chapters, Nightmares, Soldiers and Civilians, and Negotions: Chinese Style.
Although Richard McGregor covered the nature of the PLA in his book, The Party, Lampton gives even more penetrating insight into the political nature of the PLA, the reality that it is a "Party Army" rather than a "National Army."
As a longtime China watcher, this reader has long been fascinated by the fact that leaders can retire from control of domestic and foreign policy, yet retain effective control of the military, as Jiang Zemin did from 2002 to 2004. Although no policy disagreements ever appeared, this remains possible in the future, and Lampton gave it an interesting term, the "2 Headquarters" scenario. The nature of the PLA's politicized status could as yet be a potential wild card in possible splits in the party and government, as splits have occurred previously, and cannot be ruled out in the future.
Nightmares covers scenarios relating to China's population size, such as inability to food shortages, unemployment, and industrial disputes, along with possible external threats, such as a collapse of the North Korean state and the refugee crisis such a catastrophe would ensure.
The final chapter, Negotiations: Chinese Style, was of particular use to this reader as I have long taken an interest in Chinese foreign policy, and an effective and insightful study it is.
On the whole, a recommended book and a useful addition to one's collection of contemporary Chinese politics, for experienced or novice alike.

[Elijah · Rating 4 out of 5]

I have long asserted that Sino-U.S relations is the most interesting aspect of U.S foreign policy. This belief has manifested itself in my small but intimate and very familiar collection of Chinese and U.S poli-sci/history books.

The newest addition to this collection is a book I picked up around a month ago, called 'Following the Leader' by David M. Lampton, a former director of China Studies at John Hopkins University's School of Advanced International Studies. Written in 2013, Following the Leader is an analysis of China's reform era leaders (all presidents past Mao Zedong) and how China has been changed thanks to those leaders.

This book isn't necessarily told in chronological order, instead, chapters are organized by topics that target specific aspects of the People's Republic. It is within those topics where Lampton attempts to analyze the evolution of the PRC's leaders and their philosophies.

But to say Following the Leader is a 100% analysis of the reform era Chinese leaders is a little misleading. Yes, on the surface, Lampton does talk at length about Deng, Jiang, Hu, and Xi, but it often felt that Lampton went off the trail, and instead, talked about the PRC as a whole. This is my primary complaint, because I went into this book wanting a dedicated source about post-Mao leadership and I felt as though I got a diet version of that.

This defocusing of the PRC reform era leaders extends into another problem, that being the complete lack of coverage on Jiang Zemin's suppression of the Falun Gong! Regardless of one's opinion on the Falun Gong, the suppression they experienced after protesting in front of the Communist Party's HQ (which actually is talked about for a little bit in the book) served as Jiang's "Tiananmen Square" moment. For the type of book Following the Leader is, this information should have been explored more.

With that being said, I must also admit that while I wanted the book to talk more about the individual Chinese leaders, the book itself still stood as a strong piece of poli-sci work. I especially enjoyed the language employed by Lampton throughout the text: "realist/realism, pluralistic society, nonproliferation" are terms commonly employed by those in IR classes. I appreciate this because it gives me the feeling that this text is slightly above the level designed for laymen.

To further cement Following the Leader's worth as a poli-sci book that is above "laymen tier", one should examine the book's appendix. I am not sure why, but in my mind, I always envisioned the appendix's of books like these to be filled with mumbo jumbo only comprehensible to those with an IQ much higher than mine. Lampton, while still going into some very intricate detail about his research, is able to explain it in a slightly less boring way. While I did skim this portion of Following the Leader for now, I think if I am ever curious about conducting research in environments like China, I would reopen this book and take a deep dive into that appendix.

But hey, what is the point of all the above points if the contents are OUTDATED!!! Yes, the vast majority of this book was written in 2013, 13 years ago. A lot of stuff can, and has changed in both China and the U.S within 13 years. So, is there any worth to a text like Following the Leader where so much of the content is outdated? I would say so because part of the fun of texts like this is highlighting certain pieces of information and asking yourself to do your own research to see where things have gone since the publishing date of the book. A really good example of this is page 157, where Lampton goes into detail about China's first run in with a coronavirus epidemic in the form of SARS. I read this section, pointed at it, and asked, "how does China's response to Covid-19 differ?" I quite enjoy doing this, so I don't mind reading older poli-sci works like this one.

All in all, I did enjoy this book. While I would have loved if Lampton went a little deeper into the individual reform era Chinese leaders and talked more about the Falun Gong, I found Lampton's insights into the ever more pluralized Chinese society very inspired. If you want a mid-2010s read into China's progress up to that point in history, check out Following the Leader.

[Mihai Zodian · Rating 5 out of 5]

The best political science books sometimes turn into works of history (The Practice of Social Research). Following the Leader traced the way Communist China's elite functioned during the era of reforms and D. Lampton identified a trend of growing pluralism. He admits that the age of reforms is over since with the rise of Xi Jinping, mainland China became more centralized and ideologized. The verdict may still be out on this one since it is never certain that pluralism will not assert itself in the future.

Following the Leader has a pejorative sense, that of people without personality or initiative, one of the main weaknesses of a hierarchy. D. Lampton plays with multiple meanings, arguing that, up to Xi Jinping, mainland China developed a system of responsible authoritarianism that allowed many successes, like the rise of a new middle class. I recommend this book because it is based on intense research, it uses hundreds of interviews in an ethnographic framework linked to the classical works about political elites and it offers a perspective useful to understand current events. When the era of reforms was closing, mainland China faced many issues (the political role of the new middle class, corruption, relationships with the US, and further development), and Xi Jinping's policies were a conservative reaction.

While it is a political science work, Following the Leader achieves novel-like qualities. D. Lampton remembers his early studies when he was living in Hong Kong when one way to find out what was happening in mainland China was from the newspapers in which packages were wrapped. This was a boon for both researchers and intelligence agencies, and it reminded me of the secret agents from James Clavell`s Noble House. There are many moments like this one.

His personal experience shines when he`s analyzing the Chinese negotiation style. The ideas are not new, he speaks about networks, relationships, ceremonial, using cultural achievements to impress foreigners, the wording, but the way D. Lampton tells the story in Following the Leader is instructive. The best way to approach Communist China is to find the right mix between power and concession, and the author insists that going to the extremes of aggressiveness or appeasement will lead to failure. This also is known in theory, but very difficult to achieve in practice.

Deng Xiaoping and Xi Jinping dominate Following the Leader. This is unavoidable and it obscures the main point, which was the tension between political centralism and the growing social pluralism. The main drawback is that the author initially thought that the era of reforms was ongoing, and then he revised his point in a second edition. Nevertheless, the reader will find Lampton`s insights and approach insightful.

[Matt · Rating 5 out of 5]

This is a fantastic behind-the-scenes history of modern Chinese politics, from someone who regularly talked to and interviewed Chinese leadership over the past few decades. It's fascinating to see how successive generations were able to build up such a complex organizational structure from essentially nothing after the end of the Cultural Revolution. At times the problems described in this book sounded massive, all-encompassing, overwhelming, and impossible to tackle, but somehow everything worked out in the end. I got a good sense of how fires were put out, how systems were built from year to year, and how new developments uncovered new challenges. The economic, governmental, and social machines built in these decades now power almost a fifth of the world, and show no signs of slowing down.

It's been almost a decade after the publication of this book now. Given how fast everything changes in China, the information in this book is now quite noticeably out of date. The entire landscape has changed. The contemporary problems described in the book were accurate identifications of the state of the country at the time of publication, but many of those problems were subsequently solved and many new ones were introduced. Some of the looming problems the author talked about have come due and are now being addressed. China's position within the world has also shifted drastically, with its growth now causing some decades-old internal issues to become international problems.

Overall, this book is an incredible piece of work. I highly recommend it for anyone who wants to see how China has progressed over the last few decades.

[Ron · Rating 4 out of 5]

Helpful to insights into the opaque ebb and flow of power within the Party.

[Jordan Mcculloch · Rating 3 out of 5]

Hard to follow at times but overall was very informative for a new learner of china and it’s leaders.

[James · Rating 3 out of 5]

The China that Deng Xiaoping led and the China Xi Jinping now leads are very different countries, but how has China and its political systems changed over the last 25 years?

With unprecedented access to Chinese leaders at all levels of party and government, David M. Lampton tells the story of China's ruling elite from their own perspectives - what are the challenges they face? What keeps them up at night? Where should China go next? Based on over 500 interviews, Lampton offers rare and interesting insight into the policies and thoughts of China's leaders.

Lampton's book is not just for Chinese political aficionados but anyone interested in China - especially as it offers insight into how the Chinese leaders see themselves and the task of ruling China.

[Bob · Rating 4 out of 5]

I liked the approach Lampton took in this book. He used quotes gathered over the years from various officials and sinologists, and combined them into a fairly readable book. The book does tend to bounce back and forth a few decades a bit, so sometimes the "story" doesn't flow very well and can be hard to follow. Nonetheless, I enjoyed reading it and would recommend it to anyone who is curious about China.

[Caitlin Schultz · Rating 4 out of 5]

This book is very insightful and expertly documents - from the inside - the changes China has undergone since the Mao era.

[Alex · Rating 3 out of 5]

Solid intro to China hook. Needs to be updated for Xi Jinping era though, especially the political leaders and prospects for pluralism and reform chapters.