Read upto chapter 8 only since I don't understand chapter 7&8 😮💨.
Takeaways:
chapter 3: Gaining an edge in the stock market
"The Dow theory operates on the efficient markets hypothesis (EMH), which states that asset prices incorporate all available information." - This pretty much means that you cannot trade news
Never chase a stock on news. It is a battle you will never win!
One way you can gain an edge in the stock market is by trading extremes.
* Price Extremes - Whether it is an uptrend or downtrend, if the price movement extends way beyond the mean, most of the time it reverts to the mean.
* volatility extremes - The more volatile they are, the more they tend to move away from their mean, which gives us trading opportunities
chapter 4 & 5 : Spotting Market Extremes and Trading Opportunities Including technical indicators
Follow a limited universe of stocks :
* what works for me is creating a universe of stocks which I enjoy following and reading about
* I encourage you to have several watchlists spanning multiple sectors like Oil, Health, Financials, Technology, Industrials etc. This way you can readily switch to a different bucket of stocks based on market conditions.
Quick summary of the criteria I use to select the stocks that I want to trade :
1. Avoid trading if there is any material news like mergers, buyouts, bankruptcies, lawsuits on the stock that just came out.
2. Avoid trading, if there was an earnings announcement that just happened.
* I usually wait at least 3-5 days after the earnings announcement to evaluate any trading opportunities.
* whenever I put on a trade, I make sure that earnings are at least 30 -50 days in the future from today’s date.
3.
Price:
Avoid lower priced equities Avoid low volatility stocks (i.e stocks that don’t move around a lot)
Volume:
Stock should have >= 1 million shares trading on a daily basis.
ATM options should ideally have >= 500 in volume
Open Interest:
The open interest should be >= 1000
Bid/Ask spread:
Tight bid-ask spreads are better
4. Technical indicators:
Bollinger Bands (to spot trading opportunities) and Keltner Channels ( to avoid low volatility time periods):
* When a stock is over-extended to either the up or down side, and that behavior is not in-line with its personality, the price of the stock starts testing the outsides of the Bollinger Bands®
* when bollinger bands are outside the Keltner channels, you have periods of higher volatility and chances of profitable trade setups
ADX: (to avoid putting on bad trades)
The purple line indicates the strength of the current trend.
When the green line is above the red line, it indicates a bullish momentum and when the red is above the green line, it indicates a bearish momentum
Regardless of market direction, if the ADX is sloping upwards, it indicates the current trend is very strong, and this means “do not put on that contrarian trade”
RSI: (to spot trend exhaustion)
If RSI is above 70, but then it starts trending down below 70. That is the time to put on your bear mask and get into your mean-reversion trade.
2 other indicators: ( if the signals I am getting are not clear)
* TTM Squeeze - gives you clear signals about when to take a trade and when to stay out.
* OBV - shows crowd sentiment that can predict a bullish or bearish outcome
5. Look for days where the DOW jumps or pulls back more than 200 - 500 points (the greater the better)
If the overall market caused the stock to move violently and it had nothing to do with the stock itself. If you come up with a “yes”, from the simple check above, it is time to put on a trade!