The New Merchants of Grain: Out of the Shadows

by Jonathan Kingsman

In 1979, Dan Morgan, a journalist with the Washington Post, wrote Merchants of Grain, a definitive history of the international grain trade. In the 40 years since Dan’s book was published the grain markets have changed almost beyond recognition. So too have the merchants of grain. Once shadowy figures, grain merchants have now come out of the shadows. Almost everything that you eat or drink today will contain something bought, stored, transported, processed, shipped, distributed or sold by one of the seven giants of the agricultural supply chain. The media often refers to them as the ABCD group of international grain-trading companies, with ABCD standing for ADM, Bunge, Cargill and Dreyfus. The acronym, though, ignores the other three giants of the food Glencore, COFCO International and Wilmar. Together, they handle 50 percent of the international trade in grain and oilseeds. In this book’s series of exclusive and unprecedented interviews, CEOs and senior traders from these seven giants describe in their own words how the agricultural markets are changing, and how they are adapting to those changes. Accompanying text explains how grain trading works, what grain traders do, and the journey that your food takes before arriving on your plate.This is the inside story of the grain market and of the seven companies at the centre of the world’s food supply.

Genres: Business, Nonfiction, History, Economics

384 pages, Kindle Edition

Published November 5, 2019

Reviews

[Sergey Dudko]

Overcapacity. Not only is there overcapacity, but also the existing installed capacity has become a lot more efficient, largely because transport has become more efficient
Disintermediation. Farmers have more information than they used to, and farm storage has grown. Therefore, large farmers are increasingly selling directly to the end user
Farmers are getting more market power. In the 10 years from 2007 to 2017, U.S. farms’ crop-storage capacity expanded by 14 percent to 13.5 billion bushels – enough to hold nearly all of 2017’s corn harvest. This gives them significantly more power in the supply chain
Value chain expansion. Largest players are moving into more value-added businesses to enhance margins
Consolidation. Low interest rates and excess capacity could speed up consolidation within the sector. The consolidation among the merchants will continue. I think the market will consolidate to deal with excess capacity
Tradeability: the ability to trade a commodity in terms of switching origins or destinations in response to changes in relative prices of the commodity and of the shipping rates
Traceability: the ability to trace a particular (usually certified) commodity all the way back along the supply chain to the farm or even the field where it was produced. Blockchain technology is making traceability easier
Geopolitical threats. The Chinese will want to diversify their import origins and rely less on the US
Move to alternative meat products. it takes 10 calories of feed to produce one calorie of beef. It only takes one calorie to produce one calorie of plant-based meat
Financialisation of commodities. The second challenge has been the financialisation of commodities. This makes it much more challenging for physical traders to use the futures markets to hedge or to structure a trading strategy. They’ll now almost always find somebody ahead of them
Biofulel demand will slow down. As we start to use more electric vehicles, the biofuel demand will slow

[Zlatan Celebic · Rating 3 out of 5]

The Evolution of Grain Trade: Revisiting 'Merchants of Grain' and Its Modern Counterpart

Grain Trade Through Two Lenses
I first read Merchants of Grain by Dan Morgan during my studies, and it left a lasting impression. I was captivated by the depth of Morgan’s investigation and his ability to unravel the complex power structures that shape the global grain trade. His critical approach and exposé-style narrative opened my eyes to the hidden forces influencing global food systems—a perspective that still resonates with me today.
The global grain trade is a complex force shaping food security, geopolitics, and economic stability. Two books—Merchants of Grain by Dan Morgan (1979) and The New Merchants of Grain: Out of the Shadows by Jonathan Kingsman (2020)—offer a deep dive into this world, though from very different angles.
Morgan’s work remains a classic exposé, unearthing the hidden networks of power within the grain trade, while Kingsman presents a more contemporary, data-driven analysis of how technology and globalisation have reshaped the industry. But can Kingsman’s work be seen as a continuation of Morgan’s? In some ways, yes—but with notable shifts in focus.

Morgan’s Sharp Lens: Power and Secrecy
Dan Morgan takes an investigative approach, dissecting the influence of the ABCD companies—Archer Daniels Midland (ADM), Bunge, Cargill, and Louis Dreyfus. He paints a picture of a grain trade dominated by secrecy, monopolistic control, and geopolitical influence, particularly during the Cold War era. Morgan critiques the ethical blind spots of these corporations, exposing how market manipulation and corporate monopolies directly affect global food security.
His narrative is a critical one, questioning not just the mechanics of the trade but its human cost. It’s this sharp, ethical inquiry that gives Merchants of Grain its lasting power.

Kingsman’s Broader Frame: Technology and Globalisation
In contrast, Jonathan Kingsman offers a modernised view, focusing on how data analytics, AI, blockchain, and global market shifts have reshaped the grain trade. Kingsman tracks the rise of state-owned enterprises (like China’s COFCO) and highlights the increasing complexity of international grain flows, especially amid trade wars and climate challenges.
While Kingsman acknowledges ethical concerns—such as sustainability and social responsibility—his approach remains more analytical than critical. He focuses on market efficiencies, regulatory shifts, and technological advances rather than interrogating systemic inequalities.

A Continuation—But Not in Spirit
It’s fair to say that The New Merchants of Grain serves as a chronological continuation of Morgan’s narrative, bringing the story into the 21st century. Kingsman picks up where Morgan left off, updating readers on the evolving players, tools, and strategies that shape the modern grain trade.
However, philosophically, the books diverge. Where Morgan scrutinises who holds the power and at what cost, Kingsman explores how the system works today and how it has adapted. Kingsman is less interested in moral critique and more focused on explaining market mechanisms.

Why Morgan’s Approach Still Resonates More
For readers who value deep dives into systemic power structures and trade injustices, Morgan’s work remains the more compelling read. His exploration of how a handful of companies could influence global food supplies offers a sobering look at the vulnerabilities within the global food system.

Kingsman, while providing critical updates on modern market tools and shifting dynamics, doesn’t fully grapple with the deeper ethical questions that remain as relevant today as they were in Morgan’s time—particularly around corporate accountability, climate change, and food sovereignty.

Final Thoughts: Two Perspectives, One Complex Trade
Together, these books offer a layered understanding of the grain trade’s evolution. Morgan gives us the historical backbone and critical perspective, while Kingsman highlights the technological transformations and modern complexities.
If Morgan shows us how the game was rigged, Kingsman shows us how the rules have changed—but the stakes remain just as high.

For anyone exploring food security, geopolitics, or global trade, reading both books provides a comprehensive view of an industry that, despite its low public profile, remains a linchpin in global stability.

Have you read either of these? I’d love to hear your thoughts on how global trade continues to shape our food systems—and who really holds the power.

[Stuart Bulterman · Rating 5 out of 5]

A gripping introduction to the world of soft commodites, Kingsman takes you on a literary journey into the shadows of the international commodity trade.

He provides a gripping perspective of the history of the International commodity trade from the early beginnings to the modern day conglomerates, which have their signtature in almost every product which we consume.

A anyone who is intrested in business and the modern food systemn should read, it provides a succint introduction to a world going through dynamic changes and is especially pertinant given the current food climate in reference to

Russian Grain Theft: https://www.forbes.com/sites/dereksau...

Sri Lanka Food Failure - https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/5...

This book ingited a deeper desire and intrest in me to find out more about the "world of grain" as the scene is set for these companies to undergo fundemental changes in the coming years (Of which we should all be interested in!)

Kingsman goes about dispelling popular myths about the sustainabilyt of agricultre, which is how we have avoided the Malthusain prediction over the past centuries, while giving us insight into the inner workings of the commodity traders.

[Reinis Bekeris · Rating 3 out of 5]

I really lived the interviews with experienced market participants that shared views that really align with my experience but managed to put the answers in a very clear and seasoned manner.
What I disliked is that the author shares rumours that have no material impact on business and plugs blockchain like it was at all relevant for grain business while he fails to go in depth about recent weather anomalies that have caused serious logistics issues, changes in government subsidies of biofuels, growing issues with animal farming (ASF) or anything else really. This makes the book less robust than the original “Merchants of grain” from 40 years ago.

[grs · Rating 5 out of 5]

Excellent book

Another excellent book from the author this time for those who want to understand where and how most of your food comes from. There's history, geopolitics, economy and people here. Also a great opportunity to understand what trade houses are and how they work.

[Thomas Churchill · Rating 4 out of 5]

Quite a good book and introduction to agricultural commodity trading but I would have preferred a more comfortable read and less academic like. The World for Sale is a more entertaining introduction for sure.

[Erik · Rating 5 out of 5]

Very good interviews from leaders of abcd+

A must read

[Victor · Rating 5 out of 5]

Good introductory book on agricultural commodities. It gives a good perspective up to 2019/early 2020 before the pandemic.

[Joao Pedro · Rating 4 out of 5]

Nice introduction to the businesses of the biggest commodity companies out there together with interesting interviews with relevant people from the field.

[Alan Eyre · Rating 3 out of 5]

Good - a nice glimpse into the complex world of agricultural commodities.

[Alexandre Pittet · Rating 3 out of 5]

Interesting book with a number of interviews in between chapters. Whilst full of anecdotes and a good primer to current strategic issues, I learned more in “The world for sale”.

[Nguyen Phu Hai · Rating 5 out of 5]

This awesome update for the book The Merchants of Grain

Books by Jonathan are always informative and are gems. Read all of his books and was always amazed with his work

[Joel · Rating 3 out of 5]

While I work in agribusiness, specifically grain value chains, I rarely read agri books. This was recommended. I found it quite helpful for gathering a bit more of a historical context around the global leaders in grain trading. And some useful learnings shared from leaders in these firms, which are applicable my career in grain trading in Africa. That said, it felt a bit lazy to me - rather than codifying full length interviews, I think it would have been more useful (and a briefer read) to draw common insights and learnings from these interviews and summarize them for his reader. Perhaps that was not the author's intention, so may be unfair critique.